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Bracketology 2021-2022


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23 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

Never said they did.  My point is that that if Team #68 & Team #69 are Big Ten squads, it's going to be Michigan and Indiana in those spots.  Rutgers is sitting somewhere in the mid to late 50's in teams under consideration.  

But we are competing with more than just UN and RU.  We are going against teams in the first 4 in and first 4 out, probably the last 4 byes.

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Just now, IU Scott said:

But we are competing with more than just UN and RU.  We are going against teams in the first 4 in and first 4 out, probably the last 4 byes.

I understand.  But, I'm conceptually talking about a scenario already decided the first 67 teams that are in and has already eliminated everyone below that.  And, in that very realistic scenario, teams #68 & #69 are Big Ten teams, that's going to be IU and UM.  Rutgers is not in that discussion.  There simply is not a scenario where they are #68 or #69.  

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Just now, Indy1987 said:

The worst NET ranking to make the NCAA at-large field is No. 73 (St. John’s in 2019).  

Rutgers sits at 76.  

Again I think they are in but they aren't on firm ground.

Go Hoosiers!!!

That's more of an indictment on the NET than anything else.  There is absolutely no way an 18-12 team that beat Illinois, Wisconsin, Purdue, Iowa, etc. gets left out over a 19-11 team from a mid-major conference that happens to have a NET of 52.  

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3 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

That's more of an indictment on the NET than anything else.  There is absolutely no way an 18-12 team that beat Illinois, Wisconsin, Purdue, Iowa, etc. gets left out over a 19-11 team from a mid-major conference that happens to have a NET of 52.  

Agreed. The NET is simply one thing they look at, it isn’t everything. Rutgers is also a candidate to see a massive jump in the NET over the next week, IMO. 

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2 hours ago, 5fouls said:

That's more of an indictment on the NET than anything else.  There is absolutely no way an 18-12 team that beat Illinois, Wisconsin, Purdue, Iowa, etc. gets left out over a 19-11 team from a mid-major conference that happens to have a NET of 52.  

True about the NET but then you have their Kenpom at #74.  So it's not just one tool that they don't measure up in.

There's no doubt they have great wins but the bad losses are killers.

And it's not just mid-majors they need to worry about.   Florida, UVA, VaTech win a couple tournament games and they may bump an 18-13 Rutgers.  

Go Hoosiers!!!

 

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From Bleacher Report:

Fourth Team Out: Indiana Hoosiers
18-12, NET: 44, RES: 62.5, QUAL: 39.0

If you take out the seven Quadrant 4 cupcakes that Indiana scheduled in nonconference play, the Hoosiers are 11-12 overall with just two wins against definite tournament teams—at home against Purdue and Ohio State. The metrics aren't bad, but this resume just reeks of missed opportunity and poor scheduling. The Hoosiers will face Michigan on Thursday for the right to face Illinois on Friday. Much like Florida's case, that looks like a pair of must-win games.

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57 minutes ago, 13th&Jackson said:

From Bleacher Report:

Fourth Team Out: Indiana Hoosiers
18-12, NET: 44, RES: 62.5, QUAL: 39.0

If you take out the seven Quadrant 4 cupcakes that Indiana scheduled in nonconference play, the Hoosiers are 11-12 overall with just two wins against definite tournament teams—at home against Purdue and Ohio State. The metrics aren't bad, but this resume just reeks of missed opportunity and poor scheduling. The Hoosiers will face Michigan on Thursday for the right to face Illinois on Friday. Much like Florida's case, that looks like a pair of must-win games.

I hope people dont get overconfident if we beat Michigan.  It's 50/50 at that point.  We still may need Illinois as well.

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1 hour ago, 13th&Jackson said:

From Bleacher Report:

Fourth Team Out: Indiana Hoosiers
18-12, NET: 44, RES: 62.5, QUAL: 39.0

If you take out the seven Quadrant 4 cupcakes that Indiana scheduled in nonconference play, the Hoosiers are 11-12 overall with just two wins against definite tournament teams—at home against Purdue and Ohio State. The metrics aren't bad, but this resume just reeks of missed opportunity and poor scheduling. The Hoosiers will face Michigan on Thursday for the right to face Illinois on Friday. Much like Florida's case, that looks like a pair of must-win games.

They say, "take out the cupcakes".  If everyone had to do that, mid majors would have few if any wins. The sad truth is if our UNCA game had been played or rescheduled,  we would have 20 wins with a win against Michigan.  That puts us in without question. Not sure how we get penalized for losing a guaranteed victory.

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12 minutes ago, Hoosierinbham said:

They say, "take out the cupcakes".  If everyone had to do that, mid majors would have few if any wins. The sad truth is if our UNCA game had been played or rescheduled,  we would have 20 wins with a win against Michigan.  That puts us in without question. Not sure how we get penalized for losing a guaranteed victory.

Actually, I think the "sad truth" is that if the Windy City 5 would have followed the rules and we executed down the stretch in 1 or 2 games we'd be sitting here discussing what our seed will be instead of how the stars all have to align for us to just get in.

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19 hours ago, 5fouls said:

I'm going to continue to beat this dead horse.  Because Rutgers was able to beat Purdue, Iowa, MSU, Michigan, Ohio State, Illinois, and Indiana, they were able to finish 4th in the B1G.  

That's 7 wins against the top 9 in the conference.  IU has 2 wins against that same group.  So yes, WHO they beat is a lot more impressive.  But you cant ignore that by winning those games, it impacted the conference standings.  You simply cant ignore the correlation.  

Standings matter because it means you did better against common opposition.

Ironically, you've just proven why conference standings aren't relevant or used at all. 😁

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11 minutes ago, Proud2BAHoosier said:

The forfeit game against NW is coming back to haunt the Hoosiers. I was hoping at the time, it wouldn't, but man, what if??

We would still be on the bubble, probably on the outside looking in. That would have been a Quad 2 win that barely moved the needle. It was no worse than the road PSU loss. OTOH, had we won the Rutgers game at home (they jumped us with that loss) plus any one of the road losses against WI, OSU or PU we'd be solidly in. 

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35 minutes ago, 13th&Jackson said:

We would still be on the bubble, probably on the outside looking in. That would have been a Quad 2 win that barely moved the needle. It was no worse than the road PSU loss. OTOH, had we won the Rutgers game at home (they jumped us with that loss) plus any one of the road losses against WI, OSU or PU we'd be solidly in. 

That's where we are now. If you get rid of our worst loss (maybe 2nd worst) and replace it with a win, that changes things significantly. If you want to say it wouldn't have been an overly impressive win, then you have to acknowledge it was a bad loss.

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40 minutes ago, 13th&Jackson said:

We would still be on the bubble, probably on the outside looking in. That would have been a Quad 2 win that barely moved the needle. It was no worse than the road PSU loss. OTOH, had we won the Rutgers game at home (they jumped us with that loss) plus any one of the road losses against WI, OSU or PU we'd be solidly in. 

Hate to call Northwestern a gimme without the suspensions, but probably true. Add the UNCA game, and we have 20 wins. That would have us in.  No what ifs needed.

The frustrating part is we were up in the second half in so many games that we just couldn't close. We could easily have 24-25 wins and be talking about making some noise in the tournament. Injuries definitely played a large role as well.

Hopefully the coaching staff and systems are solid and just need the right players.  Our defense is top 20.  That travels anywhere. Just need players that can make open shots. 

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40 minutes ago, southsidehoosier said:

The Galloway and Phin injuries to me loom large. I know injuries are a part of the game but look at OSU since their injuries 

Absolutely! Like you said, injuries are part of it and happen to almost every team, but with that said Phinisee and Galloway not only both misses extended time but both missed time during the most important part of the schedule. 

We also can't dismiss that our most productive lineup by the metrics I believe was XJ, Phinisee, Galloway, Thompson, TJD. 

We missed two of those guys for extended time during our most important stretch. That matters. 

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2 minutes ago, BGleas said:

Absolutely! Like you said, injuries are part of it and happen to almost every team, but with that said Phinisee and Galloway not only both misses extended time but both missed time during the most important part of the schedule. 

We also can't dismiss that our most productive lineup by the metrics I believe was XJ, Phinisee, Galloway, Thompson, TJD. 

We missed two of those guys for extended time during our most important stretch. That matters. 

And not only ALLL of that.... they missed all of that time AT THE SAME TIME. 

We have 4 players that can break you down of the dribble (XJ, TJD, TG, and RP)... we had 2 for a good portion of the B1G season. Not good. 

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44 minutes ago, HoosierDom said:

That's where we are now. If you get rid of our worst loss (maybe 2nd worst) and replace it with a win, that changes things significantly. If you want to say it wouldn't have been an overly impressive win, then you have to acknowledge it was a bad loss.

It was a bad loss but PSU and Syracuse were worse. Plus the Rutgers loss just dropped to a Quad 3, so that is now the worst loss. 

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