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Some polls to keep us busy until Saturday


Final 9 game reckonings  

64 members have voted

  1. 1. What will IU's record be over the final 9 games of the season?

    • 7-2 or better
      1
    • 6-3
      26
    • 5-4
      29
    • 4-5
      9
    • 3-6 or worse
      0
  2. 2. What will be our final place in the Big Ten standings?

    • 1st or 2nd
      2
    • 3rd or 4th
      16
    • 5th or 6th
      44
    • 7th or worse
      2
  3. 3. How many games behind the 1st place team (in the Big Ten) will we finish the season

    • 0 - we are winning this thing!
      2
    • 1 game - why did we lose that game in Wisconsin
      4
    • 2 to 3 games back - and Iowa and PSU?
      46
    • 4-5 games back
      11
    • 6 or more games back - the wheels fall off the wagon
      1


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17 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

Agreed.  That team had several things this one doesn't.

  • Consistent knockdown shooters (Hulls & Watford)
  • A stud lockdown defender (Vic)
  • A big who was comfortable handling the ball on the perimeter Zeller, though he could not shoot outside either)

I'll give this year's team the advantage in experience at PG and in coaching.

Talent wise, it would be something like a 8-2 advantage to the Zeller team.  Woody might coach an extra win or 2 out of his guys, so I would say 6-4 the other way might be believable.   

 

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I said 6-3. I think 5-4 is a floor and 7-2 is probably a ceiling. I don't really see any evidence this team is going to finish below .500 down the stretch and I don't actually think any of you see evidence of that from this team either, it's just fear from different teams with different rosters and different coaching staffs.

 

43 minutes ago, Purdue7 said:

Wow!  That team was soooo good!

in 40+ years of Mackey arena that might be the worst game 

it felt like we had 4 defenders 

Best game I've ever been to in person! 

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2 minutes ago, KoB2011 said:

I said 6-3. I think 5-4 is a floor and 7-2 is probably a ceiling. I don't really see any evidence this team is going to finish below .500 down the stretch and I don't actually think any of you see evidence of that from this team either, it's just fear from different teams with different rosters and different coaching staffs.

This is why I am nervous... hard to shake some of our late(ish) season collapses on what I thought would be tournament teams. 

  • 2016-2017: We collapsed after impressive early season (wins over Kansas and UNC);
    • peak moment:  8-1 with wins over Kansas and UNC 
    • last moment likely "in tournament": on 8 Feb we were 15-9 (5-6) - lose to PU on the 9th and the rest is history
  • 2017-2018: Early season losses to ISU and IUPUFW kept this from feeling great early but:
    • Peak moment: on 22 Jan we were 12-8 (5-3)
    • last moment likely "in tournament": on 19 Feb we were 16-12 (9-7), lose the next three and the rest is history
  • 2018-2019: I am still scratching my head over that 1-11 streak... 
    • Peak moment: on 05 Jan we were 12-2 (3-0)
    • last moment likely "in tournament": hard to say, but we lost 11 of 12 after the peak and the rest is history
  • 2019-2020:  
    • Peak moment: on 23 Jan we were 15-4 (5-3)
    • last moment likely "in tournament": I do not want to rehash, but probably when COVID ended the season
  • 2020-2021:  
    • Peak moment: no real peak to the season
    • last moment likely "in tournament": probably would have had a punchers chance had the season ended when we were 12-9 (7-7) on 17 Feb - then we lost the last 6 and the rest is history

This team feels different... I have not felt this confident in a LONG time, but that was lot of disappointing finishes. 

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2 hours ago, IowaHoosierFan said:

I don't think you remember how good that team was.  We were about 3 minutes away from beating Kentucky in the S16 and they went on to win a title that year. 

Sheehey, Hulls, Cody, Vic, Watford, Yogi was a pretty good team.  Out coached for sure, but out played, i don't know man, 6 out of 10?

I guess we will never know, I just think our defense, and even culture, would be the difference. Neither Cody nor Trayce shoot much from outside of 5 feet, and I think our current post defense would pose a problem for Zeller.  I do give the big edge in shooting to that team. I like this team better because of coaching and culture. Clearly Cody and Vic were extremely athletic, but I have to give a big edge to this team.  Galloway negates Sheehey and is better at getting the offense moving. Who on that team deals with Race and Geronimo? Again, my premise really relies on this team starting to shoot the ball better. 

I remember a few years back there was a discussion on here about an "unofficial poll" from other Big Ten coaches about CAM, which was not complementary of him.  Crean was appreciated, but we mostly all thought there was something strange about him.  Coach Woodson, I think, beats these two all day every day. With the toughest match up being that team with Cody and Vic.

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15 minutes ago, IUDan93 said:

I guess we will never know, I just think our defense, and even culture, would be the difference. Neither Cody nor Trayce shoot much from outside of 5 feet, and I think our current post defense would pose a problem for Zeller.  I do give the big edge in shooting to that team. I like this team better because of coaching and culture. Clearly Cody and Vic were extremely athletic, but I have to give a big edge to this team.  Galloway negates Sheehey and is better at getting the offense moving. Who on that team deals with Race and Geronimo? Again, my premise really relies on this team starting to shoot the ball better. 

I remember a few years back there was a discussion on here about an "unofficial poll" from other Big Ten coaches about CAM, which was not complementary of him.  Crean was appreciated, but we mostly all thought there was something strange about him.  Coach Woodson, I think, beats these two all day every day. With the toughest match up being that team with Cody and Vic.

Which of the Cody and Vic teams are we talking about? That changes the answer big time IMO. 

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29 minutes ago, IUDan93 said:

Cody's 2nd year, but either is fine.

Cody's second year I think would beat this team pretty consistently. I can't really think of an area this team could look to exploit against that team. 

Cody's freshman year and this team I think is a pretty good comparison - that team having a better offense and this team having a better defense. 

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44 minutes ago, KoB2011 said:

Cody's second year I think would beat this team pretty consistently. I can't really think of an area this team could look to exploit against that team. 

Cody's freshman year and this team I think is a pretty good comparison - that team having a better offense and this team having a better defense. 

It could be that I just want to be better now than we were than because I don't really look fondly on the last 20 years of IU basketball. 

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8 minutes ago, IUDan93 said:

It could be that I just want to be better now than we were than because I don't really look fondly on the last 20 years of IU basketball. 

Cody's 2nd year we were ranked #1 in the country longer then anybody. 

I'm excited about this year's team and how we might do down the stretch, but this team hasn't even been ranked at any point. 

I think Cody's team would easily win 7-8 out of 10 from these guys. 

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5 minutes ago, BGleas said:

Cody's 2nd year we were ranked #1 in the country longer then anybody. 

I'm excited about this year's team and how we might do down the stretch, but this team hasn't even been ranked at any point. 

I think Cody's team would easily win 7-8 out of 10 from these guys. 

Right. That team was national championship good, they just didn’t win it.

The year before was good, too, but as much as we like to point out we gave UK all they couldn’t handle we ignore the fact we almost lost in Round 2 against VCU. I hope this team can be in that same range when we look back at this season. 

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2 hours ago, KoB2011 said:

Right. That team was national championship good, they just didn’t win it.

The year before was good, too, but as much as we like to point out we gave UK all they couldn’t handle we ignore the fact we almost lost in Round 2 against VCU. I hope this team can be in that same range when we look back at this season. 

Losing to VCU….how embarrassing 😳 

I wonder what that’s like?

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pessimistic guy here.  don't get me wrong, i like this team in a lot of ways and see us headed the right direction, but just being honest and realistic, it's hard to imagine a winning record with our schedule the rest of the way.  i haven't had time to really research it, but it looks like the teams ahead of us have schedules similar or easier and the teams right behind us the same.  i may have time to look at the stats more today, but it seems likely to me that we finish right where we are.  that's not so bad.  hopefully they exceed my expectations and i am a happy camper.  

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57 minutes ago, NCHoosier32 said:

pessimistic guy here.  don't get me wrong, i like this team in a lot of ways and see us headed the right direction, but just being honest and realistic, it's hard to imagine a winning record with our schedule the rest of the way.  i haven't had time to really research it, but it looks like the teams ahead of us have schedules similar or easier and the teams right behind us the same.  i may have time to look at the stats more today, but it seems likely to me that we finish right where we are.  that's not so bad.  hopefully they exceed my expectations and i am a happy camper.  

I am curious which 5+ games you think we lose the rest of the way? 

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21 hours ago, kyhoosier29 said:

4-5 or 3-6 is also very possible unfortunately. Shouldn’t be worse than 3-6 to jeopardize our tourney chances though. 

I am curious how you are defining "very possible"? 3-6 seems to be something of a statistical long shot, and even 4-5 is a pretty big stretch to use the term "very possible". 

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12 hours ago, BGleas said:

Cody's 2nd year we were ranked #1 in the country longer then anybody. 

I'm excited about this year's team and how we might do down the stretch, but this team hasn't even been ranked at any point. 

I think Cody's team would easily win 7-8 out of 10 from these guys. 

Yeah, that was a pretty good team. I do think we were not really a top level team, though. Top 10, yes, but probably not top 5.  I also think we are a top 20 team this year. I think we are every bit as good, if not better than, LSU, Marquette, Iowa State, Xavier, et al. MSU has been a much better team than us and yet we seem to have been a match up problem for them. I think in 2012-13 teams like Syracuse and Louisville were going to beat us most nights because of match ups.  Truthfully, BGleas, you have forgotten more basketball than I would ever know, and I certainly don't watch the game through the same lens as you and some others on this site do.  So, I concede that you guys are probably right.  

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44 minutes ago, KoB2011 said:

I am curious which 5+ games you think we lose the rest of the way? 

so, i know we disagree on this, and that's cool.  i just find it tough to expect wins @ MSU, @ OSU, @ Purdue.  so that's 3.  then @ NW is a tough one.  home vs. Illinois is a tough one.  if we win 1 or 2 of those, that's also assuming there's no chance of losing at home vs. #11 Wisconsin or at MN where it is always tough to play.  so while i don't think many of those are absolutely no chancers, i just think it's hard to see us winning on the road and/or every good team we have remaining at home.  that's all.  i hope we go 9-0 and you can feel welcome to tell me I Told You So!

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1 minute ago, NCHoosier32 said:

so, i know we disagree on this, and that's cool.  i just find it tough to expect wins @ MSU, @ OSU, @ Purdue.  so that's 3.  then @ NW is a tough one.  home vs. Illinois is a tough one.  if we win 1 or 2 of those, that's also assuming there's no chance of losing at home vs. #11 Wisconsin or at MN where it is always tough to play.  so while i don't think many of those are absolutely no chancers, i just think it's hard to see us winning on the road and/or every good team we have remaining at home.  that's all.  i hope we go 9-0 and you can feel welcome to tell me I Told You So!

I think we will win the games at Minnesota and NW and the home games vs Rutgers and Maryland.  I think we will have a really good chance of winning the other two home games UI and UW.

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29 minutes ago, NCHoosier32 said:

so, i know we disagree on this, and that's cool.  i just find it tough to expect wins @ MSU, @ OSU, @ Purdue.  so that's 3.  then @ NW is a tough one.  home vs. Illinois is a tough one.  if we win 1 or 2 of those, that's also assuming there's no chance of losing at home vs. #11 Wisconsin or at MN where it is always tough to play.  so while i don't think many of those are absolutely no chancers, i just think it's hard to see us winning on the road and/or every good team we have remaining at home.  that's all.  i hope we go 9-0 and you can feel welcome to tell me I Told You So!

I don't really care if we agree or disagree, nor do I care to say I told you so.

Thank you for clarifying that your idea of the realistic viewpoint is we lose every game that leans towards the other team, and get upset in multiple games that lean towards us. 

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To throw some fire on the "counting" all leans as wins or losses, here is a probability theory approach to determining the "Expected number of wins".  

Notations: P = probability, | = conditioned on, O = outcome, V = venue, F = foe (since O was already used), W = number of wins over the last 9 games, w = win, l=loss, h= home, a = away, E[.] = expected value

Example of notation: P(O=w | F=UI and V = h) = "probability of the outcome being a win conditioned on foe being University of Illinois and the venue being at home" and so P(O=w | F=UI and V = h) = 0.65 means I am assigning a 65% chance we win against Illinois at home.

With this I can assess my probability (my assessments - you can create your own or use website) of a win for the remaining games: 

  1. P(O=w | F=UI and V=h)         = 0.65
  2. P(O=w | F=NW and V=a)      = 0.7
  3. P(O=w | F=MSU and V=a)    = 0.2
  4. P(O=w | F=Wisc and V=h)    = 0.8
  5. P(O=w | F=OSU and V=a)    = 0.1
  6. P(O=w | F=UMCP and V=h) = 0.9
  7. P(O=w | F=Minn and V=a)    = 0.5
  8. P(O=w | F=RU and V=h)       = 0.8
  9. P(O=w | F=PU and V=a)       = 0.1

So my expected # of wins over the last nine is: 

E[W] = ∑ P(Oi=w | F=fi and V=vi) = 0.65 + 0.7 + 0.2 + 0.8 + 0.1 + 0.9 + 0.5 + 0.8 + 0.1 = 4.75 wins. 

If we win on Saturday (and I do not reassess probabilities for the remaining games), then my expected number of wins would jump 0.35 to 5.1 wins and if we lose it would drop 0.65 to 4.1 wins (every observed win or loss is a swing of 1).

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2 minutes ago, GaloisGroupe said:

To throw some fire on the "counting" all leans as wins or losses, here is a probability theory approach to determining the "Expected number of wins".  

Notations: P = probability, | = conditioned on, O = outcome, V = venue, F = foe (since O was already used), W = number of wins over the last 9 games, w = win, l=loss, h= home, a = away, E[.] = expected value

Example of notation: P(O=w | F=UI and V = h) = "probability of the outcome being a win conditioned on foe being University of Illinois and the venue being at home" and so P(O=w | F=UI and V = h) = 0.65 means I am assigning a 65% chance we win against Illinois at home.

With this I can assess my probability (my assessments - you can create your own or use website) of a win for the remaining games: 

  1. P(O=w | F=UI and V=h)         = 0.65
  2. P(O=w | F=NW and V=a)      = 0.7
  3. P(O=w | F=MSU and V=a)    = 0.2
  4. P(O=w | F=Wisc and V=h)    = 0.8
  5. P(O=w | F=OSU and V=a)    = 0.1
  6. P(O=w | F=UMCP and V=h) = 0.9hniking
  7. P(O=w | F=Minn and V=a)    = 0.5
  8. P(O=w | F=RU and V=h)       = 0.8
  9. P(O=w | F=PU and V=a)       = 0.1

So my expected # of wins over the last nine is: 

E[W] = ∑ P(Oi=w | F=fi and V=vi) = 0.65 + 0.7 + 0.2 + 0.8 + 0.1 + 0.9 + 0.5 + 0.8 + 0.1 = 4.75 wins. 

If we win on Saturday (and I do not reassess probabilities for the remaining games), then my expected number of wins would jump 0.35 to 5.1 wins and if we lose it would drop 0.65 to 4.1 wins (every observed win or loss is a swing of 1).

that definitely blows my mind, but i love the stats.  i was going to kind of try to look up predictors today to get an idea.  i don't think i expect us to lose every marginal game.  i just figured we would be underdogs in @ OSU, @ MSU, and @ PU.  sure we could pull an upset.  personally if i am predicting, which is what we are discussing, i don't predict an upset there.  don't know if we'd be underdogs vs #11 at home?  i could see that going either way.  haven't seen odds on Saturdays' game, but figured it could go either way.  i'm thinking/assuming we'll be favorites at NW and MN, but think NW is actually pretty good and MN is a very tough place to play.  i'm not predicting we lose both, but don't think either are gimmes.  i want to count Rutgers and MD at home as wins.  other than that, all i'm saying is i think it's likely we lose the 3 toughest road games and 2 more.  could we go 7-2?  6-3?  sure!  i don't think many would want to take that bet though?  4.75-4.25 seems reasonable.  

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22 minutes ago, GaloisGroupe said:

To throw some fire on the "counting" all leans as wins or losses, here is a probability theory approach to determining the "Expected number of wins".  

Notations: P = probability, | = conditioned on, O = outcome, V = venue, F = foe (since O was already used), W = number of wins over the last 9 games, w = win, l=loss, h= home, a = away, E[.] = expected value

Example of notation: P(O=w | F=UI and V = h) = "probability of the outcome being a win conditioned on foe being University of Illinois and the venue being at home" and so P(O=w | F=UI and V = h) = 0.65 means I am assigning a 65% chance we win against Illinois at home.

With this I can assess my probability (my assessments - you can create your own or use website) of a win for the remaining games: 

  1. P(O=w | F=UI and V=h)         = 0.65
  2. P(O=w | F=NW and V=a)      = 0.7
  3. P(O=w | F=MSU and V=a)    = 0.2
  4. P(O=w | F=Wisc and V=h)    = 0.8
  5. P(O=w | F=OSU and V=a)    = 0.1
  6. P(O=w | F=UMCP and V=h) = 0.9
  7. P(O=w | F=Minn and V=a)    = 0.5
  8. P(O=w | F=RU and V=h)       = 0.8
  9. P(O=w | F=PU and V=a)       = 0.1

So my expected # of wins over the last nine is: 

E[W] = ∑ P(Oi=w | F=fi and V=vi) = 0.65 + 0.7 + 0.2 + 0.8 + 0.1 + 0.9 + 0.5 + 0.8 + 0.1 = 4.75 wins. 

If we win on Saturday (and I do not reassess probabilities for the remaining games), then my expected number of wins would jump 0.35 to 5.1 wins and if we lose it would drop 0.65 to 4.1 wins (every observed win or loss is a swing of 1).

Curious where you got those odds?

if you just used your assumptions, how do you figure we only have a 10% chance to win at OSU when we dominated them at home and we didn’t even particularly play well on offense?

We beat them as bad as we did Minny but you’ve got us 5 times more likely to beat Minny?

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9 minutes ago, NCHoosier32 said:

that definitely blows my mind, but i love the stats.  i was going to kind of try to look up predictors today to get an idea.  i don't think i expect us to lose every marginal game.  i just figured we would be underdogs in @ OSU, @ MSU, and @ PU.  sure we could pull an upset.  personally if i am predicting, which is what we are discussing, i don't predict an upset there.  don't know if we'd be underdogs vs #11 at home?  i could see that going either way.  haven't seen odds on Saturdays' game, but figured it could go either way.  i'm thinking/assuming we'll be favorites at NW and MN, but think NW is actually pretty good and MN is a very tough place to play.  i'm not predicting we lose both, but don't think either are gimmes.  i want to count Rutgers and MD at home as wins.  other than that, all i'm saying is i think it's likely we lose the 3 toughest road games and 2 more.  could we go 7-2?  6-3?  sure!  i don't think many would want to take that bet though?  4.75-4.25 seems reasonable.  

I think we mostly agree on games, the probability theory just allows us to quantify our uncertainty. Qualitatively

  1. Small chance: MSU, OSU, PU
  2. Coin toss: Minn on the road
  3. Slightly favored: UI at home, NW on the road
  4. Favored: Wisc, MD, RU at home

So I would say 5-4 off of that, however, I am "more confident" in some of the losses than the favored at this time, so the adjusts it down for that. Someone else might say, I think the UI game at home is a coin toss and change that to 0.5 (or even lower) and then they can recalculate or only favor us slightly in the Wisc game and shift that from 0.8 to 0.6. Then they can recalculate. 

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4 minutes ago, KoB2011 said:

Curious where you got those odds?

if you just used your assumptions, how do you figure we only have a 10% chance to win at OSU when we dominated them at home and we didn’t even particularly play well on offense?

We beat them as bad as we did Minny but you’ve got us 5 times more likely to beat Minny?

I just made them up - I am nervous about road games at this point (if MD on the road looks more like the norm, I would reassess and shift some of those probabilities).

It is more an illustration of how we could argue about expected wins. If you have different probabilities, you can recalculate the expected wins. 

EDIT: As far as the difference with Minny, I just think they are the better team. I think we caught them off guard with Trey's return. They will have prepared for him this time. 

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All I know is this...

Our record against the teams we have remaining on our schedule is 4-1...and that 1 was the loss at Wisconsin...

Now I know that doesn't mean much, but it does prove we can be competitive with the teams above us...

And as far as that goes, if you're a competitor, the teams above you are who you want to play, right? Makes it a lot easier to make up ground, that's for sure...

I'm a big believer that confidence goes a long way, not only in sports, but in other pursuits, in dictating success...Coach Woodson believes in these guys, and has made them believe in themselves...And I think that bodes well for our remaining games... One at a time...

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22 minutes ago, IUFLA said:

All I know is this...

Our record against the teams we have remaining on our schedule is 4-1...and that 1 was the loss at Wisconsin...

Now I know that doesn't mean much, but it does prove we can be competitive with the teams above us...

And as far as that goes, if you're a competitor, the teams above you are who you want to play, right? Makes it a lot easier to make up ground, that's for sure...

I'm a big believer that confidence goes a long way, not only in sports, but in other pursuits, in dictating success...Coach Woodson believes in these guys, and has made them believe in themselves...And I think that bodes well for our remaining games... One at a time...

Confidence is a huge thing. Coach Woodson does an excellent job of making his players feel better about themselves if/when they have doubts (see Phinisee pre-PU game), and I think he's got many of his guys operating on a higher mental level. We're seeing it with X over the last few games. Geronimo is being put in positions and situations to succeed, and he's producing. Race has really elevated his game this year.

Galloway's mental approach is next level -- this dude is sooooo good. TJD goes without saying.

I would like to see Stewart and Kopp start to play with that confidence a little more. Parker has had flashes, Miller not so much. Getting those guys to help spread the floor with some hot shooting and we're in business.

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