Some polls to keep us busy until Saturday

[kyhoosier29]

3 hours ago, KoB2011 said:

I am curious how you are defining "very possible"? 3-6 seems to be something of a statistical long shot, and even 4-5 is a pretty big stretch to use the term "very possible". 

“Very possible” we lose to….

Illinois

at Nwestern

at MSU

at OSU 

at Minny

at Purdue

And that’s assuming we beat Wiscy at home which isn’t a given. I am very curious to understand how some of you are so confident that we will win 5, 6, and even 7 of the last 9 given that schedule. Hope I’m wrong, but I expect 5-4, surprised at 6-3, and shocked at 7-2. 

[IowaHoosierFan]

15 hours ago, KoB2011 said:

Right. That team was national championship good, they just didn’t win it.

The year before was good, too, but as much as we like to point out we gave UK all they couldn’t handle we ignore the fact we almost lost in Round 2 against VCU. I hope this team can be in that same range when we look back at this season. 

Yeah Second Year Cody was a legit 7 footer who could run the floor and defend with the best of them  TJD whom i love is not strong enough to play through Cody, who is just as athletics.  Vic would do very well against anyone on this this team and Yogi was quick enough to defend XJ.  Sheehey would have no issues with either Kopp or Stewart and as smart a player as Galloway, with more experience.  Yogi and Hulls would light this years team up from 3.  They were legit 40% shooters and Yogi had that jab step or take it to the hole quickness we haven't seen in a long time.  Then you have to worry about 6'8 watford who could rebound and bang underneath and then step out and kill you from 3.  

Were they as good defensively, no but closer than you think.  They were way more dangerous on the offensive end.  Had we not ran into Syracuse, we probably make the finals that year.

[KoB2011]

57 minutes ago, IUFLA said:

All I know is this...

Our record against the teams we have remaining on our schedule is 4-1...and that 1 was the loss at Wisconsin...

Now I know that doesn't mean much, but it does prove we can be competitive with the teams above us...

And as far as that goes, if you're a competitor, the teams above you are who you want to play, right? Makes it a lot easier to make up ground, that's for sure...

I'm a big believer that confidence goes a long way, not only in sports, but in other pursuits, in dictating success...Coach Woodson believes in these guys, and has made them believe in themselves...And I think that bodes well for our remaining games... One at a time...

It absolutely means something - it means we are going to go into every single game thinking we can win.

We have the second most double digit wins of any team in the conference, trailing on Illinois.

We have the fourth best point differential in the conference.

BPI says we have 5 games we should win, plus one toss up. Out of the three games we "should" lose, we beat two of them, one of them by double digits and one in a game in which TJD was rendered useless by shitty officiating. 

So yeah, a lot can happen and none of us KNOW anything, but the notion that this team is going to fall apart down the stretch (and at some point loss back to back games, something they haven't done all year) isn't based on data or evidence. 

[KoB2011]

1 minute ago, IowaHoosierFan said:

Yeah Second Year Cody was a legit 7 footer who could run the floor and defend with the best of them  TJD whom i love is not strong enough to play through Cody, who is just as athletics.  Vic would do very well against anyone on this this team and Yogi was quick enough to defend XJ.  Sheehey would have no issues with either Kopp or Stewart and as smart a player as Galloway, with more experience.  Yogi and Hulls would light this years team up from 3.  They were legit 40% shooters and Yogi had that jab step or take it to the hole quickness we haven't seen in a long time.  Then you have to worry about 6'8 watford who could rebound and bang underneath and then step out and kill you from 3.  

Were they as good defensively, no but closer than you think.  They were way more dangerous on the offensive end.  Had we not ran into Syracuse, we probably make the finals that year.

I'd actually say they were more talented on defense, just not as well coached on that end. The only advantage this years team has really anywhere on the court is not actually on the court, it's on the sidelines. Coaching definitely matters, but the talent gap between the teams is enormous. 

[IowaHoosierFan]

1 minute ago, KoB2011 said:

It absolutely means something - it means we are going to go into every single game thinking we can win.

We have the second most double digit wins of any team in the conference, trailing on Illinois.

We have the fourth best point differential in the conference.

BPI says we have 5 games we should win, plus one toss up. Out of the three games we "should" lose, we beat two of them, one of them by double digits and one in a game in which TJD was rendered useless by shitty officiating. 

So yeah, a lot can happen and none of us KNOW anything, but the notion that this team is going to fall apart down the stretch (and at some point loss back to back games, something they haven't done all year) isn't based on data or evidence. 

To me law of averages will play out here.  I don't think we go 7-2 but i doubt we go 2-7.  Probably on the 5-4 or 4-5 if we lose focus to much.  I think we have the talent to win alot of these games.  But my pessimistic side says we land in the middle. I would be happy with 5-4.

[IowaHoosierFan]

1 minute ago, KoB2011 said:

I'd actually say they were more talented on defense, just not as well coached on that end. The only advantage this years team has really anywhere on the court is not actually on the court, it's on the sidelines. Coaching definitely matters, but the talent gap between the teams is enormous. 

I agree 

[KoB2011]

16 minutes ago, kyhoosier29 said:

“Very possible” we lose to….

Illinois

at Nwestern

at MSU

at OSU 

at Minny

at Purdue

And that’s assuming we beat Wiscy at home which isn’t a given. I am very curious to understand how some of you are so confident that we will win 5, 6, and even 7 of the last 9 given that schedule. Hope I’m wrong, but I expect 5-4, surprised at 6-3, and shocked at 7-2. 

Yeah, I call BS on it being "very possible" we lose to two bottom feeders at this point in the season. We certainly could drop Illinois or Wisconsin at home, but I think we are just as likely to beat one of the good teams on the road as we are to lose at home. I mean, we already beat the piss out of OSU, doing it again isn't exactly a stretch. 

[KoB2011]

Just now, IowaHoosierFan said:

To me law of averages will play out here.  I don't think we go 7-2 but i doubt we go 2-7.  Probably on the 5-4 or 4-5 if we lose focus to much.  I think we have the talent to win alot of these games.  But my pessimistic side says we land in the middle. I would be happy with 5-4.

I 100% agree the law of averages will win out. 

[GaloisGroupe]

7 minutes ago, IowaHoosierFan said:

Were they as good defensively, no but closer than you think.  They were way more dangerous on the offensive end.  Had we not ran into Syracuse, we probably make the finals that year.

That year reminded of the pedro cerrano character in major leagues. (enough fastballs, throw him some breaking balls - about 1 minute into the video)

"Wow this team is amazing - how are they not favored to win the title?"

"Enough man-to-man, show them a 2-3 zone"

[IUFLA]

1 hour ago, IUFLA said:

Now I know that doesn't mean much, but it does prove we can be competitive with the teams above us...

 

20 minutes ago, KoB2011 said:

It absolutely means something - it means we are going to go into every single game thinking we can win.

Once again, these 2 sentences imply the same thing...

[IowaHoosierFan]

14 minutes ago, GaloisGroupe said:

That year reminded of the pedro cerrano character in major leagues. (enough fastballs, throw him some breaking balls - about 1 minute into the video)

"Wow this team is amazing - how are they not favored to win the title?"

"Enough man-to-man, show them a 2-3 zone"

True but no one runs the zone like cuse.  And they had some legit talent on that team that year.

[GaloisGroupe]

1 minute ago, IowaHoosierFan said:

True but no one runs the zone like cuse.  And they had some legit talent on that team that year.

I agree, that was a final four team that hit the worst possible opponent. 

[GaloisGroupe]

Additional fire for the number of wins Using the same probabilities (and assuming independence, which I know is a strong assumption):

• vs UI 0.65
• @ NW, 0.7 
• @ MSU 0.2
• vs Wisc 0.8
• @ OSU 0.1
• vs MD 0.9
• @ Minn 0.5
• vs RU    0.8
• @ PU 0.1

 Then the probability distribution is: 

Number of wins	Probability
0	0.000136
1	0.003084
2	0.026578
3	0.114138
4	0.263719
5	0.326893
6	0.203126
7	0.055623
8	0.006441
9	0.000262

So under my assumptions, the 3 or fewer (~14.4%) AND the 6 or more (~26.5%) are BOTH reasonably likely. 

Food for the argument 🤣...

(Note: There are 9^2 = 512 different possible outcomes in terms of wins and losses over the last 9, so I left out the formulas.)

Edited February 4, 2022 by GaloisGroupe

[KoB2011]

46 minutes ago, IUFLA said:

 

Once again, these 2 sentences imply the same thing...

And I wasn't disagreeing with you? I was building on what you said - I understand you and I have similar views of this team. 

[IUFLA]

3 minutes ago, KoB2011 said:

And I wasn't disagreeing with you? I was building on what you said - I understand you and I have similar views of this team. 

Ahhh...Hard to gather context just reading for us older fellas sometimes I guess  

[kyhoosier29]

3 hours ago, KoB2011 said:

Yeah, I call BS on it being "very possible" we lose to two bottom feeders at this point in the season. We certainly could drop Illinois or Wisconsin at home, but I think we are just as likely to beat one of the good teams on the road as we are to lose at home. I mean, we already beat the piss out of OSU, doing it again isn't exactly a stretch. 

Well, hopefully you’re right. 

[FKIM01]

6 hours ago, KoB2011 said:

I don't really care if we agree or disagree, nor do I care to say I told you so.

Thank you for clarifying that your idea of the realistic viewpoint is we lose every game that leans towards the other team, and get upset in multiple games that lean towards us. 

I think I saw where Kenpom has IU favored by 1 against Illinois this Saturday, but is there an easy place to see Kenpom predicted margins for the rest of IU's games?

[Purdue7]

Illini are the best team in the Big Ten imho.  
IU will play like they did against Penn State.

should be a great game 

can’t wait!

[southsidehoosier]

32 minutes ago, Purdue7 said:

Illini are the best team in the Big Ten imho.  
IU will play like they did against Penn State.

should be a great game 

can’t wait!

I hope it’s the home game against PSU then

[KoB2011]

1 hour ago, FKIM01 said:

I think I saw where Kenpom has IU favored by 1 against Illinois this Saturday, but is there an easy place to see Kenpom predicted margins for the rest of IU's games?

I’m not sure about KenPom, but it’s pretty easy to look up who BPI favors if you click into the matchup on ESPN. 

[FKIM01]

Bump...

[Hoosierfan1901]

Illinois is really good, we had our chances, but came up empty

[Hoosierfan1901]

Remaining Schedule with ESPN’s winning predictor

at NW 56% W 
At MSU 32% L
Vs Wiscy 67% W 

at OSU 31% L

Vs Maryland 83% W

At Minny 62% W

Vs Rutgers 87% W

At Purdue 31% L

end the season winning 5-3

21-9, 12-8

 

 

[GaloisGroupe]

22 minutes ago, Hoosierfan1901 said:

Remaining Schedule with ESPN’s winning predictor

at NW 56% W 
At MSU 32% L
Vs Wiscy 67% W 

at OSU 31% L

Vs Maryland 83% W

At Minny 62% W

Vs Rutgers 87% W

At Purdue 31% L

end the season winning 5-3

21-9, 12-8

 

 

So the expected # of wins would be: 0.56 + 0.32 + 0.67 + 0.31 + 0.83 + 0.62 + 0.87 + 0.31 =  4.49

[Hoosierfan1901]

17 minutes ago, GaloisGroupe said:

So the expected # of wins would be: 0.56 + 0.32 + 0.67 + 0.31 + 0.83 + 0.62 + 0.87 + 0.31 =  4.49

Looks to be