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Is This 1936 All Over Again?


IUFLA

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48 minutes ago, Seeking6 said:

I've gone back and forth on this thread and doing my own homework/research,etc....because there are so many misleading things. At it's core though I think most would agree we need to be more eco friendly and reduce our gas/oil consumption. 

At the same time I'll echo what Elon Musk said over the weekend. Oil/gas/energy,etc.. increasing production now has to  happen yesterday. We can still long term go the electronic route....but even the average EV car costs $56k. Basically eliminates almost 90% of the country from choosing that option right?

So maybe it's a 10 year plan where we get the EV cars down to realistic cost numbers....while short term figuring out ways to refine oil/gas/energy here causing the least amount of damage to the environment while making us less dependent on Russia, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela,etc....why is that so hard for us to figure out? 

I'm probably missing something. 

 

Sorry Six, I didn’t mean to overlook your post when I was responding to Flynn. 

It’s tough. I’m not convinced EV cars are there yet. Charging stations are an issue, like cost that you pointed out. 

But, a large pickup truck is about the same cost and then you have the INSANE annual fuel costs. 

Alternative transportation seems key from my perspective, but I’ve always enjoyed the bus, trains, and biking. Even in Bloomington and Indy I used the bus. When I’m in Europe, it always amazes me how happy they seem to get around on trains and bikes. And they seem so healthy and happy compared to us. 

Am aware that it’s different in every area/community, but we don’t seem to be very smart when it comes to transport.

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Just now, cthomas said:

My concern with this issue has always been the impact energy policies have on poor people. When someone starts talking about making sacrifices, the poor are the first to suffer. Any policy must, in my opinion, factor in ways to mitigate that impact.

Exactly, the people that don’t have the luxury of choice. 

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29 minutes ago, Lostin76 said:

But, a large pickup truck is about the same cost and then you have the INSANE annual fuel costs.

Totally different usage profile though...

I can't pull a horse trailer or haul hay in an affordable EV truck. 

Around where I live, everybody has a truck, and many of them use them to make their living...

I do get it, and I want us to eventually get there, but we have to be fair to those people and we cannot put ourselves at an economic or military disadvantage trying to get there too quickly.

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Governors proposing eliminating the 18 cent gasoline tax for the rest of the year. What a joke. I can pat myself on the back for proposing something that will have little impact.

The answer is easy. Open the pipeline back up until the crisis is over. Temporary decision that alleviates the pressure of the oil shortage, and those that pushed for it to be closed can position it as a good thing if they need to. Every politician who votes for that decision can claim that they supported a decision to bail out the economy 

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2 hours ago, Steubenhoosier said:

Governors proposing eliminating the 18 cent gasoline tax for the rest of the year. What a joke. I can pat myself on the back for proposing something that will have little impact.

The answer is easy. Open the pipeline back up until the crisis is over. Temporary decision that alleviates the pressure of the oil shortage, and those that pushed for it to be closed can position it as a good thing if they need to. Every politician who votes for that decision can claim that they supported a decision to bail out the economy 

Not going to do much agreed except create funding short falls and raise other taxes. Thing is…there are lots of leases etc that go unused because they know the govt is not kind/supportive to this initiative long term. Are you going to invest in oil/gas production if you know in 6 months the govt will turn off the pipelines or make your life difficult by trying to go back to eliminating your jobs and industry? The decisions made in 1 day (first day in office) can take years to reverse or possible be impossible to overcome if people putting their money and skin in the game don’t trust your long term outlook. We know the hostilities towards fossil fuels. We may all want to get there eventually because we all want a beautiful environment and clean air and water for our children etc but we also want to afford to feed our children and send them to good schools etc as well.
 

While EVs might be the future they aren’t without their own issues (the mess of mining the minerals necessary, disposal of old batteries, and the fact they must be charged through an already sometimes overwhelmed electric grid that itself uses fossil fuels to power it). We’ve seen great innovation and I love it..but none of this can be an overnight transition/solution. We have to think strategically of who we ally with to supply us with so many of our essential goods and services and even if we pay a little more to manufacture at home or we may have to sacrifice some of our idealistic goals of timelines for 100% clean energy we really need people to compromise and put agendas aside and do what’s best for our country and people and also what would benefit our global geopolitical causes too. So crazy that we have aligned ourselves financially to be dependent and fund some of the worlds worst actors and at some point this will have to change.

Edited by dgambill
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13 hours ago, cthomas said:

My concern with this issue has always been the impact energy policies have on poor people. When someone starts talking about making sacrifices, the poor are the first to suffer. Any policy must, in my opinion, factor in ways to mitigate that impact.

I agree but will add there are already a lot of energy assistance programs available for the poor. The poorest of the poor don't pay to heat their apartment or own a vehicle. Food inflation is a larger concern. As food and energy costs rise, look for those assistance programs to expand. 

Inevitably, those least able to afford the rising costs, who are actually paying the those costs, will be hurt the most. 

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10 hours ago, dgambill said:

Not going to do much agreed except create funding short falls and raise other taxes. Thing is…there are lots of leases etc that go unused because they know the govt is not kind/supportive to this initiative long term. Are you going to invest in oil/gas production if you know in 6 months the govt will turn off the pipelines or make your life difficult by trying to go back to eliminating your jobs and industry? The decisions made in 1 day (first day in office) can take years to reverse or possible be impossible to overcome if people putting their money and skin in the game don’t trust your long term outlook. We know the hostilities towards fossil fuels. We may all want to get there eventually because we all want a beautiful environment and clean air and water for our children etc but we also want to afford to feed our children and send them to good schools etc as well.
 

While EVs might be the future they aren’t without their own issues (the mess of mining the minerals necessary, disposal of old batteries, and the fact they must be charged through an already sometimes overwhelmed electric grid that itself uses fossil fuels to power it). We’ve seen great innovation and I love it..but none of this can be an overnight transition/solution. We have to think strategically of who we ally with to supply us with so many of our essential goods and services and even if we pay a little more to manufacture at home or we may have to sacrifice some of our idealistic goals of timelines for 100% clean energy we really need people to compromise and put agendas aside and do what’s best for our country and people and also what would benefit our global geopolitical causes too. So crazy that we have aligned ourselves financially to be dependent and fund some of the worlds worst actors and at some point this will have to change.

Thank you. You summed up what I have been trying to say much better than I could have. 

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22 minutes ago, Reacher said:

I agree but will add there are already a lot of energy assistance programs available for the poor. The poorest of the poor don't pay to heat their apartment or own a vehicle. Food inflation is a larger concern. As food and energy costs rise, look for those assistance programs to expand. 

Inevitably, those least able to afford the rising costs, who are actually paying the those costs, will be hurt the most. 

Somewhat agree…honestly those in poverty already like you said don’t pay for most of that….the issue is it KEEPS them in poverty because they can’t afford to drive to that better job…or make it on their own so they stay put. Also those just above the line that was struggling drop down into it. Finally those on very limited income (social security etc) whose heating bills they won’t be able to afford and already can’t afford their prescriptions will struggle to put food on the table. Very alarming indeed….I don’t have time to pull it up but just before Covid was the first time in a long time we were shrinking those below the poverty line etc…sadly that will reverse course.

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We gave everyone at my company at least a 7.5% raise on Jan 1 to deal with inflation. We are a small business, but I hope businesses that can, do the same. 

Also one more thing about the 9,000 permits I keep seeing in the news that are "available" for drilling that are unused. This is just a false narritive. Most of the land that can be leased has to figure out if there is even oil and gas there or not. If there is, theres an entire other process that takes years and years to implement. So I'm tired of hearing this "9,000 unused permit" numbers. You don't just put a hole in the ground and oil magically appears. Another reason these are unused is because they know whoever is in charge in the WH can axe them at any minute. This means the loss of everything. Jobs, investment, etc. 

 

Edited by RoadToZion
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51 minutes ago, rico said:

Per Yahoo:

China says it is sending humanitarian aid including food and daily necessities worth 5 million yuan ($791,000) to Ukraine while continuing to oppose sanctions against Russia over its invasion.

China is the wild card in this situation. The degree to which they support their Russian allies will go a long way to determining the outcome. China is the one country with the means to somewhat mitigate the sanctions imposed by NATO countries.

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US oil production is back up after it fell off a cliff in Spring of 2020. The EIA predicts we'll are back to pre-pandemic levels and will produce 12 million barrels a day in 2022 and then a record 13 million barrels a day in 2023. The supply numbers are there right now in black and white. And while it's getting back up there, oil companies are still facing staffing and supply shortages. 

The blame for the price increase has little to do with administrative policies or that we can't squeeze out another 5% of production with the snap of a finger. It's because it's a global economy and the world's oil demand has dramatically shifted over night. Let's stop acting like this is not 95% of the problem here. If you want to blame somebody then look at Putin. Or look at Europe who has been feeding the monster for the last 20 years. The straw-man debate over permits is pure political posturing right now.

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2 minutes ago, cthomas said:

China is the wild card in this situation. The degree to which they support their Russian allies will go a long way to determining the outcome. China is the one country with the means to somewhat mitigate the sanctions imposed by NATO countries.

Man, what China and Russia have done to this decade so far. 🤦‍♂️

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14 minutes ago, tdhoosier said:

US oil production is back up after it fell off a cliff in Spring of 2020. The EIA predicts we'll are back to pre-pandemic levels and will produce 12 million barrels a day in 2022 and then a record 13 million barrels a day in 2023. The supply numbers are there right now in black and white. And while it's getting back up there, oil companies are still facing staffing and supply shortages. 

The blame for the price increase has little to do with administrative policies or that we can't squeeze out another 5% of production with the snap of a finger. It's because it's a global economy and the world's oil demand has dramatically shifted over night. Let's stop acting like this is not 95% of the problem here. If you want to blame somebody then look at Putin. Or look at Europe who has been feeding the monster for the last 20 years. The straw-man debate over permits is pure political posturing right now.

Why were prices going up before the war broke out? 

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=emm_epm0_pte_nus_dpg&f=m

Edited by RoadToZion
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13 minutes ago, cthomas said:

China is the wild card in this situation. The degree to which they support their Russian allies will go a long way to determining the outcome. China is the one country with the means to somewhat mitigate the sanctions imposed by NATO countries.

I personally think China views Putin as their stooge to see how much the west will tolerate before they start sabre rattling...

 

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1 minute ago, IUFLA said:

I personally think China views Putin as their stooge to see how much the west will tolerate before they start sabre rattling...

 

No doubt they are watching this very carefully. I wouldn't be surprised if they use the Ukraine as cover to make some moves of their own.

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2 minutes ago, RoadToZion said:

Why were prices going up before the war broke out? 

Yes. Because of demand and the world recovering from the fall off of oil supply during the pandemic. People are traveling and commuting daily again and the world is playing catch up. The price of gas was going to increase no matter who was in office. And then there's no question this war skyrocketed it even more. When Biden took office we produced 9 million barrels/day that February. It increased to 11 million that next month and now is at 12 million and expected to near 13 million next year. For context, the pre-pandemic average barrels per day was 12 million. The way the global events are unfolding is like the world is taking a dump on top of dried puke. 

 

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Oh man I could debate you all day on this. I do business with the largest oil and gas comany in the states (Exxon). Blaming everything on the pandemic is just inaccurate.

We shouldn't be scrambling to buy oil from Venezuela right now. Also the Saudis just laughed in our face when we asked them. Why do you think this is? 

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Some good points above. I'll add that I heard something like 37,000 permits were issued last year so the remaining 9000 isn't really that big of a number and are generally the most unattractive/ expensive ones. The bigger issue appears to be the slow walking for the existing permits. Cutting the regulatory burdens and creating a friendlier environment are necessary to reach our potential. I use some private energy programs for my clients and I know first hand they are paying down debt and deleveraging, instead of investing in additional production,  as there is no appetite to loan $ to fossil fuel energy companies at realistic rates. Part of this is due to the ESG investing trend I alluded to elsewhere that is driving $ away from fossil fuels. BP was happy to lose billions walking away from their Russia deal as they can now say they are a "cleaner" company. 

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1 hour ago, tdhoosier said:

US oil production is back up after it fell off a cliff in Spring of 2020. The EIA predicts we'll are back to pre-pandemic levels and will produce 12 million barrels a day in 2022 and then a record 13 million barrels a day in 2023. The supply numbers are there right now in black and white. And while it's getting back up there, oil companies are still facing staffing and supply shortages. 

The blame for the price increase has little to do with administrative policies or that we can't squeeze out another 5% of production with the snap of a finger. It's because it's a global economy and the world's oil demand has dramatically shifted over night. Let's stop acting like this is not 95% of the problem here. If you want to blame somebody then look at Putin. Or look at Europe who has been feeding the monster for the last 20 years. The straw-man debate over permits is pure political posturing right now.

You bring up good points in that production is increasing and it will take time for more to come online. So was demand, I imagine that will be curtailed with the higher prices. Prices were due to rise. Putin exacerbated the rise. All facts. So is the fact that US energy policy has taken negative turn. Projects that were being fast tracked, like Keystone, are now being canceled or more often, dragged out increasing risks and expenses. Regulatory risks and financing costs cannot be ignored. We have seen amazing progress within our energy industry and that will no doubt continue. It is why I say we can be independent and be a major supplier to Europe greatly decreasing the power of the worlds tyrannical regimes along the way. Currently, I liken our energy industry to a corvette with a governor on it limiting its speed to 65mph. 

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1 hour ago, IUFLA said:

I personally think China views Putin as their stooge to see how much the west will tolerate before they start sabre rattling...

 

Agree. This is what I posted early on that China is watching this intently. Depending on how this plays out, might determine how events between China/Taiwan unfold.

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