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Is This 1936 All Over Again?


IUFLA

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On 4/16/2022 at 2:31 PM, Madison22 said:

Here's the full article, from a British war historian:

 

Sometimes history is closer than it seems. Russian soldiers who have been wounded, captured or lost friends and colleagues in Ukraine have learned that very painful lesson over the last six weeks.

The losses that the Russian Army has suffered have been extreme, not just by the standards of post-Cold War warfare, but by all 19th and 20th century standards. Indeed the Russian war experience so far is perhaps more reminiscent of the mud and gore of the Battle of the Somme in 1916 than any subsequent military engagement.

By my calculation, based on a variety of public information, the Russians have lost approximately 30% of the forces that they have sent into Ukraine. This is a truly colossal figure, higher, in fact, than almost any engagement in modern military history from the US Civil War through to the two world wars.

The US Civil War, often seen as the first war of the industrial era, witnessed massive attritional and battle losses on all sides. But even Robert E. Lee, the Confederate General who suffered the most casualties, lost closer to 20% of his army than 30%.

Jumping to the Second World War, Russian losses are already outpacing German losses at the famously bloody Battle of Kursk. This series of battles, perhaps the greatest armour engagements in human history, saw the Germans suffer major losses in their war against Stalin’s Soviet Union. Indeed, after Kursk, the Germans never went on a major offensive again on the Eastern Front. In the six weeks of the campaign, which took in the opening offensive of the Germans (known as Operation Citadel), and stretched through Soviet counterattacks after Citadel’s failure, the Germans lost somewhere between 160,000 and 200,000 of the more than 900,000 soldiers they committed. This loss rate (between 17-22%) was almost unprecedented at the time, but again, it pales in comparison to estimated Russian losses today.

Now let’s look at the Battle of the Somme. The engagement is usually talked about mostly in terms of its exceedingly bloody first day, on which almost 20,000 British soldiers were killed. After this, though British losses were considerable, they slowed down significantly as the British army learned and adjusted.

Knowing exact casualties across the entire battle is not easy, and can spark passionate debates today. However, based on the figures we have, we can roughly estimate that around 1.05 million troops were killed from all sides out of around 3.5 million committed to the area between late June and late September, approximately 30%.

Crucially, however, these losses took place over 12 weeks, and the conflict in Russia began just seven weeks ago.

What does this huge Russian loss rate mean for the next stage of the war? First Russian forces across the board are suffering. The Russian Air Force still can’t gain air supremacy over the areas of battle, and the Russian Navy, which this week lost its flagship cruiser Moskva, has shown itself wanting. There are signs that morale is low: among the units pulled back from Kyiv there are stories of soldiers refusing to return to combat. Meanwhile, back in Russia, major steps are being taken to drum up new soldiers to fill the ranks.

In military terms, the Russian Army that invaded Ukraine six weeks ago might have one more big effort in it — but based on historical evidence, it seems likely that that would be it. In other words, the Battle of the Donbas, if that is what we are to witness, may be Russia’s last throw of the dice with this army.

After that, Putin will need an entirely new army if he is going to continue this war.

The war over the Donbas has begun in earnest now. I heard Putin wants some type of victory to crow about on their national holiday in May- hence the big push. Time is running out for Ukraine as well. the US and other NATO countries are running down on supplies to provide the Ukraine. https://www.bloombergquint.com/gadfly/russia-ukraine-war-u-s-is-running-out-of-weapons-aiding-kyiv . Looks like a very bloody and crucial 2 weeks coming up.

 

I don't think there is much of a chance Ukraine gets accepted into NATO.

In other news, it looks like the EU might embargo Russian oil starting next week which could really drive up prices. 

Edited by Reacher
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19 hours ago, NotIThatLives said:

Does Ukraine applying for EU membership move the needle?  Thought they really need to be apart of Nato to bring out the big guns?

Not really...

The NATO membership brings full US military support, and that pegs the needle for Vlad...

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3 hours ago, Reacher said:

The war over the Donbas has begun in earnest now. I heard Putin wants some type of victory to crow about on their national holiday in May- hence the big push. Time is running out for Ukraine as well. the US and other NATO countries are running down on supplies to provide the Ukraine. https://www.bloombergquint.com/gadfly/russia-ukraine-war-u-s-is-running-out-of-weapons-aiding-kyiv . Looks like a very bloody and crucial 2 weeks coming up.

 

I don't think there is much of a chance Ukraine gets accepted into NATO.

In other news, it looks like the EU might embargo Russian oil starting next week which could really drive up prices. 

Agreed. If Europe wanted to intervene they would have already…don’t need the excuse of NATO to do it. If anything being occupied right now and actively in a war will prevent it. 
 

Winter is about over…Europe will take that stand as soon as the temps get high enough they don’t need the heating gas. Real bravery…especially when the war will have cost so many Ukrainian lives. Appears not much has changed in Europe or the US in 80 years. 

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  • 3 months later...
  • 3 weeks later...

I would say no. For one Daria who?  

I doubt anyone of consequence would stand with Russia especially after most of the world showed support for Ukraine. 

The Russian government probably blew her up anyway. Europe can play with themselves.  They're already responsible for 2 world wars as it is. 

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1 hour ago, mrflynn03 said:

I would say no. For one Daria who?  

Prior to WW I, a lot of people would have said that about Ferdinand...

1 hour ago, mrflynn03 said:

I doubt anyone of consequence would stand with Russia especially after most of the world showed support for Ukraine. 

China? It wasn't like the world was behind Germany in either WWI or II...

The possibility for escalation is there, especially with the Chinese rattling their sabre in the South China sea and being chummy with Putin

1 hour ago, mrflynn03 said:

The Russian government probably blew her up anyway. Europe can play with themselves.  They're already responsible for 2 world wars as it is. 

And if a NATO country gets involved, we'll be over there...again...

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47 minutes ago, IUFLA said:

Prior to WW I, a lot of people would have said that about Ferdinand...

China? It wasn't like the world was behind Germany in either WWI or II...

The possibility for escalation is there, especially with the Chinese rattling their sabre in the South China sea and being chummy with Putin

And if a NATO country gets involved, we'll be over there...again...

It's a good example of why energy independence is critical for national security.  And gas prices have nothing to do with it. 

In the context of ww1 though I think the biggest difference is European nationalism, militarism and an ongoing arms race was at its heights back then. And the alliance system was much different. 

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16 minutes ago, mrflynn03 said:

It's a good example of why energy independence is critical for national security.  And gas prices have nothing to do with it. 

In the context of ww1 though I think the biggest difference is European nationalism, militarism and an ongoing arms race was at its heights back then. And the alliance system was much different. 

The initial comment was simply an example of how a seemingly small thing can escalate into war...

There were many reasons leading up to both WW I and WW II. Some of which you've touched on...it's rarely one big incident that starts a war... And the tension is building... 

And don't discount the alliance between Putin and Xi... 

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It is fascinating hearing about how rampant corruption over the years has so seriously degraded the Russian military.

It looks like they are running out of tanks. I did see where they still have some modern tanks left but they want to save them to protect other areas of Russia if needed.  In a war of attrition, Russia is being exposed. Ukraine has claimed to have destroyed 1300+ tanks. Some of those likely broke and were abandoned. What we don't know is the # taken out of service behind Russian lines due to breakdowns- which is estimated to be a good amount. The attrition of tank crews is also problematic. 

This is going to be the war that catapulted the use of drones. 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-loses-19-tanks-and-armored-vehicles-in-a-single-day-ukraine/ar-AA10E7Wq

https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/05/putin-is-desperate-russia-is-sending-ancient-t-62-tanks-to-ukraine/

This guy has some info- 

 

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On 8/21/2022 at 4:15 PM, mrflynn03 said:

I would not want to fight Russia attacking from the west. Hasn't went well in the past. 

No, it hasn't... But think about trying to slug your way through Siberia with China lurking to the South. 

I don't think there's a real good way to get to them. Hitler had them on the ropes, but Russian winters have turned more than one conflict. 

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  • 1 month later...

Imo which counts for nothing Russia is playing the long game. A painful European winter and letting Ukraine grind themselves in offensives…they don’t have the manpower that Russia can throw at them and eventually Ukraines support will dry up because of the weak world leaders and then Russia will be positioned to bring in their elite units and press ahead. May take a few years but Putin has time..and the troops.  Time will tell and I can’t underestimate the poor performance of the Russians but I wonder the longer it goes does the Ukraines eventually lose their military support.

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33 minutes ago, dgambill said:

Imo which counts for nothing Russia is playing the long game. A painful European winter and letting Ukraine grind themselves in offensives…they don’t have the manpower that Russia can throw at them and eventually Ukraines support will dry up because of the weak world leaders and then Russia will be positioned to bring in their elite units and press ahead. May take a few years but Putin has time..and the troops.  Time will tell and I can’t underestimate the poor performance of the Russians but I wonder the longer it goes does the Ukraines eventually lose their military support.

One thing to keep in mind is the the potential for Putin to get assassinated.  Just sayin'.

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38 minutes ago, dgambill said:

they don’t have the manpower that Russia can throw at them

Russia has 35,000 dead and 65,000 wounded out of an Army of 200,000... One of the worst ratios in the history of modern warfare...

Now he's going the conscript route, but Russian men of conscription age are fleeing the country in droves...Finland had to close their border... 

This is a humiliating defeat for Putin. He's trying to sue for peace now to keep the 4 territories and have a half-baked win to show the Russian people...but I seriously doubt Zelensky goes to the negotiating table while Ukraine is gaining ground with US and European support... As long as that support remains, Ukraine will continue to win... 

Xi of China is already trying to distance himself from Russia... 

He uses a battlefield nuke and NATO will get involved, most likely in a conventional manner, and he'll be through... One way or the other... 

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21 minutes ago, IUFLA said:

Russia has 35,000 dead and 65,000 wounded out of an Army of 200,000... One of the worst ratios in the history of modern warfare...

Now he's going the conscript route, but Russian men of conscription age are fleeing the country in droves...Finland had to close their border... 

This is a humiliating defeat for Putin. He's trying to sue for peace now to keep the 4 territories and have a half-baked win to show the Russian people...but I seriously doubt Zelensky goes to the negotiating table while Ukraine is gaining ground with US and European support... As long as that support remains, Ukraine will continue to win... 

Xi of China is already trying to distance himself from Russia... 

He uses a battlefield nuke and NATO will get involved, most likely in a conventional manner, and he'll be through... One way or the other... 

Putin is a weak little bitch who knows he’s beat. He’s desperate. I don’t see a good way out of this for Russia. Winter won’t save them. I just can’t see a scenario where Ukraine’s support evaporates among Western countries. This is the part where it’s beyond obvious that Little Poot miscalculated. His own army knows it and the West definitely knows it. 

The dangerous part is what does a weak man backed in a corner with nukes at his disposal do? We’ll find out soon. 

 

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3 minutes ago, Lostin76 said:

The dangerous part is what does a weak man backed in a corner with nukes at his disposal do? We’ll find out soon. 

That's the scary part. I think so Putin has already screwed himself big time, but does he sacrifice his whole country (and himself) by using a battlefield nuke, or does he spare Russia with his demise? 

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