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Is This 1936 All Over Again?


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4 hours ago, HoosierFaithful said:

I am sure Vlad will be irate but who cares. It’s a 2022 Lend Lease program - meet American production lines (or in this case… advanced military technology)!

ukraine gets planes they’re cross trained on, Poland gets new planes, American defense industry gets a stock boost (as if they needed any help), and Vlad eats one. 
 

 

The Ukrainian civilians are the ones footing the bill right now, and even the slightest escalation will drive that bill up...

 

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14 hours ago, Reacher said:

You make a false argument here. We don't need to kiss up to anyone OR reduce oil consumption. A reduction in oil use is already underway but we have plenty of oil here to take care of ourselves and Europe.  We have more proven oil reserves now than we did 50 years ago despite 50 years of production with unproven reserves many multiples of that- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves_in_the_United_States. Just open the spigots and quit demonizing it. Oil is the solution to so many of our problems. Short sightedness is not building enough nuclear reactors- or oil rigs.

You thinking I’m making a false argument does not make it so. If you think oil is the solution to “so many of our problems,” then you don’t even have an argument. 

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15 minutes ago, Lostin76 said:

You thinking I’m making a false argument does not make it so. If you think oil is the solution to “so many of our problems,” then you don’t even have an argument. 

I don't think he decided that.  To argue oil isn't that important, that's a heckuva stance.  

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I think the answer lies in the middle. 

We’ve increased our production since 2008. As a result, we as a country, import WAY less oil and export more. A vast majority of our oil comes from the Western Hemisphere and very little now comes from the Middle East and Russia. The problem is that it’s a global economy. Much of Europe relies on Russian oil. And now they want are importing from other sources (ours), the decreased supply increases the demand. Prices are going up. Increased production would help but it’s not like world leaders can make a magic wand to make this happen. I was reading US oil companies are still fighting labor shortages and they supply of product is still backed up. They need more pipes, more machines, more workers, etc. Also, oil reserves are underground, so they need to pump and refine it. This takes time. 6 months best scenario (so I’ve read). 

The other said of the argument is we, the world, find ourselves in this situation once again. A hiccup causes a crazy domino effect. There’s a fight over resources. Ukraine has a lot of natural resources that Europe relies on. 

I didn’t see anybody even hint that we need to completely stop oil production. But, we need to decrease our reliance on it because we are directly or indirectly in a mess over it once again. I don’t think there is a crime in becoming more energy independent as a country, but also, in the meantime, decreasing demand for it by diversifying our energy, strive for better efficiency in the transportation industry, etc. Accelerating the push for these changes may cause little pain in the short term, but the long term gain will be worth it. Plus it’s dirty and pollutes our Earth. Big picture, oil is not the long term answer. 

Edited by tdhoosier
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58 minutes ago, btownqb said:

I don't think he decided that.  To argue oil isn't that important, that's a heckuva stance.  

Oil is a part of dang near every product we use today. The shirt you're wearing and the phone you're holding require petroleum based products to be manufactured.  The roads we drive on, oil. 

People seem to focus primarily on the energy aspect. 

Edited by mrflynn03
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22 minutes ago, mrflynn03 said:

Oil is a part of dang near every product we use today. The shirt you're wearing and the phone you're holding require petroleum based products to be manufactured.  The roads we drive on, oil. 

People seem to focus primarily on the energy aspect. 

But the polar bears! 

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45 minutes ago, mrflynn03 said:

Oil is a part of dang near every product we use today. The shirt you're wearing and the phone you're holding require petroleum based products to be manufactured.  The roads we drive on, oil. 

People seem to focus primarily on the energy aspect. 

How can't you focus on $4+ a gallon gasoline?

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1 hour ago, tdhoosier said:

I think the answer lies in the middle. 

We’ve increased our production since 2008. As a result, we as a country, import WAY less oil and export more. A vast majority of our oil comes from the Western Hemisphere and very little now comes from the Middle East and Russia. The problem is that it’s a global economy. Much of Europe relies on Russian oil. And now they want are importing from other sources (ours), the decreased supply increases the demand. Prices are going up. Increased production would help but it’s not like world leaders can make a magic wand to make this happen. I was reading US oil companies are still fighting labor shortages and they supply of product is still backed up. They need more pipes, more machines, more workers, etc. Also, oil reserves are underground, so they need to pump and refine it. This takes time. 6 months best scenario (so I’ve read). 

The other said of the argument is we, the world, find ourselves in this situation once again. A hiccup causes a crazy domino effect. There’s a fight over resources. Ukraine has a lot of natural resources that Europe relies on. 

I didn’t see anybody even hint that we need to completely stop oil production. But, we need to decrease our reliance on it because we are directly or indirectly in a mess over it once again. I don’t think there is a crime in becoming more energy independent as a country, but also, in the meantime, decreasing demand for it by diversifying our energy, strive for better efficiency in the transportation industry, etc. Accelerating the push for these changes may cause little pain in the short term, but the long term gain will be worth it. Plus it’s dirty and pollutes our Earth. Big picture, oil is not the long term answer. 

Exactly. The Green transition will take decades. We need to keep the oil flowing for cheap energy and global security implications until such time it is no longer needed.  We will likely need to subsidize oil at some point when it does not become economically feasible for oil companies to invest in a declining industry. There is nothing wrong with an "all of the above" energy policy. Demonizing oil does not help the problem but actually makes it worse by prematurely diverting resources away from oil leading to exactly the the world conflict we are now facing.

I have to add something to your second to last sentence. Electric is dirty. Batteries are dirty. Even solar is dirty when you look at the costs, methods and materials needed to create and run these sources- and eventually dispose of them. 

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2 hours ago, Lostin76 said:

You thinking I’m making a false argument does not make it so. If you think oil is the solution to “so many of our problems,” then you don’t even have an argument. 

Cheap and plentiful US oil will prevent our dependence, and lessen the dependence of our allies, on oil coming from Russia, Iran, Saudia Arabia and Venezuela. All are countries where oil and corruption have allowed dictators to flourish and are responsible for a great deal of terror and civil rights abuses in the world. That is not the type of world I want to live in. 

I think the above is a very clear and simple argument. I'm sorry you cannot see that. 

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16 minutes ago, Reacher said:

Exactly. The Green transition will take decades. We need to keep the oil flowing for cheap energy and global security implications until such time it is no longer needed.  We will likely need to subsidize oil at some point when it does not become economically feasible for oil companies to invest in a declining industry. There is nothing wrong with an "all of the above" energy policy. Demonizing oil does not help the problem but actually makes it worse by prematurely diverting resources away from oil leading to exactly the the world conflict we are now facing.

I have to add something to your second to last sentence. Electric is dirty. Batteries are dirty. Even solar is dirty when you look at the costs, methods and materials needed to create and run these sources- and eventually dispose of them. 

Humankind is dirty...among its numerous faults.

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Fascinating watching the global consequences play out. The EU is looking into a massive bond offering to help with energy and security.  Here is an excerpt from the Telegraph (subscription required). https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/03/07/vladimir-putin-never-believed-west-would-cut-russian-oil-grave/

The White House is sending emergency missions to Saudi Arabia and Venezuela to find extra barrels. The US is pushing for a quick deal with Tehran on nuclear proliferation to bring back Iranian crude. All normal diplomatic reservations are being set aside. (…)

Frans Timmermans, head of the EU’s energy transition, says Europe currently has enough gas to muddle through this spring whatever happens.

We have an odd situation where both sides are threatening to play the energy card, but the threats are not in reality equivalent. A crude blockade will make it impossible for Putin to continue waging serious offensive war in Ukraine beyond a few weeks. Oil and gas make up 40pc of Russia’s state budget. It is what holds the patronage machine together. (…)

Bank of America says the industry’s rule of thumb is that each “unexpected” loss of 1m b/d lifts prices by $20. A total Russian cut-off of 5m b/d would therefore lift prices to around $200. (…)

This implies recession. It would be just as uncomfortable for China, with energy use per unit of GDP almost double that of France and Germany, and 2.5 times higher than the frugal UK. The worse it gets, the greater the strain on the Beijing-Moscow axis. (…)

Citigroup’s energy strategist Ed Morse said the Western Hemisphere could produce an extra 2.5m b/d this year, much of it from US shale, but also from Brazil and Guyana.

The US is sending diplomats to the Gulf to demand extra output from Saudi Arabia and the OPEC petro-states, which are currently withholding supply to force up the price. The charm offensive comes with a warning. These states no longer have the option of playing it both ways: relying on the US security umbrella against Iran while at the same teaming up with Russia in an oil cartel. They must choose.

Helima Croft from RBC Capital Markets said the Gulf states and Iraq have up to 2.5m b/d in spare capacity that could be mobilised within 30-60 days. (…)

All is forgiven in Caracas. The Chavista regime of Nicolas Maduro is back from the cold. Ms Croft said a relaxation of sanctions could unlock 600,000 b/d. That would deliver sulphurous ‘heavy’ oil to balance the mix in US refineries, replacing heavy Urals from Russia.

The Ayatollahs are being cut some slack too. A deal could open the way for the return of 1m b/d of Iranian crude, though it will be a staggered process of over many months. Add in China’s zero-covid strategy, which cuts jet fuel use, and it is possible to see our way through this crisis. The rest will have to come from de facto rationing.

Vladimir Putin cannot easily switch his surplus oil to China. “The infrastructure is in the wrong place: the Transneft oil pipelines go to the Baltic and the Black Sea, and then you have to find somebody willing to pick it up. The Chinese haven’t got the tankers,” said Prof Riley.

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49 minutes ago, Reacher said:

I have to add something to your second to last sentence. Electric is dirty. Batteries are dirty. Even solar is dirty when you look at the costs, methods and materials needed to create and run these sources- and eventually dispose of them. 

Everything will have it's drawbacks, but the key is that they are less dirty. But in the case of solar, I think it's so important to keep pushing the envelope because the information gained from experimenting/learning from this technology will be crucial to our future. Learning to harness the power of the sun makes every other energy source obsolete. And best yet, it comes from an unlimited resource. Who knows if any advances will come in the next 10, 50 or 100 years, but we need to keep experimenting. 

*Side note, I listen to a lot of different science podcasts. It's amazing how many physicists think that our next technological revolution is going to come from capturing the sun's energy. (For example, a revolution similar in effect to the industrial or digital revolution)  It's hard to imagine now, but before humankind could even fly, nobody would imagine it's possible to put a man on the moon. Similarly, an energy source that is so limitless could unlock so many other technologies that we can't even comprehend yet.  This would be on the level of space travel or moving at the speed of light. Or faster than the speed of light (which is now considered impossible). I'm going to butcher the stat, but I remember one physicist explaining that capturing (something like) 1% of one sun ray, before it hits our atmosphere could power the entire planet for the next 10 years. Sorry for the tangent....just find the stuff interesting. 

Edited by tdhoosier
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7 hours ago, mrflynn03 said:

Oil is a part of dang near every product we use today. The shirt you're wearing and the phone you're holding require petroleum based products to be manufactured.  The roads we drive on, oil. 

People seem to focus primarily on the energy aspect. 

Sure, it’s in synthetics and many plastics, but roughly 50% of our oil goes to just gasoline in the US. Almost 70% of our usage is the transportation industry.

And shocker, the US has a grossly outsized consumption when you compare us to the rest of the world. 

4 hours ago, mrflynn03 said:

I can. Hits my wallet. 

I was more for the people that don't have to like city people who don't drive. There are those out there who think we can be 100% oil free. Mostly journalism majors though. 

I would never claim that we can be 100% oil free. But we don’t have to guzzle it like drunken frat boys at their first kegger.

 

49CDE914-92FD-4C9A-B8E6-BED7CD87D721.jpeg

AB65C135-F463-412B-A645-F5B48C71D962.jpeg

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5 minutes ago, Lostin76 said:

Sure, it’s in synthetics and many plastics, but roughly 50% of our oil goes to just gasoline in the US. Almost 70% of our usage is the transportation industry.

And shocker, the US has a grossly outsized consumption when you compare us to the rest of the world. 

I would never claim that we can be 100% oil free. But we don’t have to guzzle it like drunken frat boys at their first kegger.

 

49CDE914-92FD-4C9A-B8E6-BED7CD87D721.jpeg

AB65C135-F463-412B-A645-F5B48C71D962.jpeg

I've gone back and forth on this thread and doing my own homework/research,etc....because there are so many misleading things. At it's core though I think most would agree we need to be more eco friendly and reduce our gas/oil consumption. 

At the same time I'll echo what Elon Musk said over the weekend. Oil/gas/energy,etc.. increasing production now has to  happen yesterday. We can still long term go the electronic route....but even the average EV car costs $56k. Basically eliminates almost 90% of the country from choosing that option right?

So maybe it's a 10 year plan where we get the EV cars down to realistic cost numbers....while short term figuring out ways to refine oil/gas/energy here causing the least amount of damage to the environment while making us less dependent on Russia, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela,etc....why is that so hard for us to figure out? 

I'm probably missing something. 

 

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38 minutes ago, Lostin76 said:

Sure, it’s in synthetics and many plastics, but roughly 50% of our oil goes to just gasoline in the US. Almost 70% of our usage is the transportation industry.

And shocker, the US has a grossly outsized consumption when you compare us to the rest of the world. 

I would never claim that we can be 100% oil free. But we don’t have to guzzle it like drunken frat boys at their first kegger.

 

49CDE914-92FD-4C9A-B8E6-BED7CD87D721.jpeg

AB65C135-F463-412B-A645-F5B48C71D962.jpeg

I want to be as environmentally sound as possible.  I love the outdoors and environment and wantto protect it as much as possible. 

As far as the 50% for gasoline, I would like to know how much is broken down in each category.  Diesel is much more efficient than regular octane for example. 

I wasn't calling you out, if you nerd out on science like I do we know oil will be a part of our life. I prefer a multifaceted approach.  Love ya man. 

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Just now, mrflynn03 said:

I want to be as environmentally sound as possible.  I love the outdoors and environment and wantto protect it as much as possible. 

As far as the 50% for gasoline, I would like to know how much is broken down in each category.  Diesel is much more efficient than regular octane for example. 

I wasn't calling you out, if you nerd out on science like I do we know oil will be a part of our life. I prefer a multifaceted approach.  Love ya man. 

Ha, if you look, you’ll notice I only took the time to reply to you even though I know we are far apart on this. It’s b/c I respect and enjoy your thoughts on here.

I grew up dependent on my car to get me the hour back and forth to work. Gas is freaking important if you need it to get to work. I can’t count the number of times I had to pawn my watch or donate plasma to buy gas when I was a young man. It unfortunately happened a lot back in the day. 

But, I have spent a lot of time, effort, and money so I don’t have to be reliant on gas now. I know that I’m lucky in that respect, and that it sets me apart from many on here. And I also know that good people like you know that we are different, but also the same. 

 

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6 minutes ago, Lostin76 said:

 

Ha, if you look, you’ll notice I only took the time to reply to you even though I know we are far apart on this. It’s b/c I respect and enjoy your thoughts on here.

I grew up dependent on my car to get me the hour back and forth to work. Gas is freaking important if you need it to get to work. I can’t count the number of times I had to pawn my watch or donate plasma to buy gas when I was a young man. It unfortunately happened a lot back in the day. 

But, I have spent a lot of time, effort, and money so I don’t have to be reliant on gas now. I know that I’m lucky in that respect, and that it sets me apart from many on here. And I also know that good people like you know that we are different, but also the same. 

 

I'm part hippie, part redneck. Man, I grew up hunting, fishing, foraging.  Working on farms. Was a life scout, I appreciate our land and nature. Try to grow an epic garden every year. 

I would prefer to not rely on it but I'm not going to dismiss alternatives either. 

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