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Is This 1936 All Over Again?


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Believe me when I say I’m as dismayed and angry as anyone about what is going on, but so is my Russian friend! Managed to go to lunch yesterday with my old team 8, among them my brother from Kosovo. He was more concerned about me, I’ll leave it at that.

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2 hours ago, Drroogh said:

Believe me when I say I’m as dismayed and angry as anyone about what is going on, but so is my Russian friend! Managed to go to lunch yesterday with my old team 8, among them my brother from Kosovo. He was more concerned about me, I’ll leave it at that.

But can the Russian people rein Putin in? 

He was KGB, so I would imagine he's got an ear close to the ground everywhere...

And we know what happens to those who oppose him...

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1 hour ago, IUFLA said:

But can the Russian people rein Putin in? 

He was KGB, so I would imagine he's got an ear close to the ground everywhere...

And we know what happens to those who oppose him...

My friend used to be the manager of a hair salon, we are as far away as anyone from answering your question.

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56 minutes ago, Drroogh said:

My friend used to be the manager of a hair salon, we are as far away as anyone from answering your question.

I understand...

But if they can't, and Ukraine falls and he continues on, the rest of the world (sans China and Iran) will...

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In some senses I think Putin's already lost, it's just a matter of when that is fully realized.

This invasion has pretty much dispelled the myth that Russia still possesses a formidable military.  They have some large numbers, but how many of these soldiers are untrained or barely trained? They'd be completely outmatched if a showdown with NATO ever happened, and their equipment is downright rudimentary compared to what other modern militaries can field.

I'm also beginning to wonder if Russia can actually "win" this invasion in the long term. They may overpower Ukraine at some point in the next few days, but I don't think it's as much of a foregone conclusion as everyone initially assumed. It also really seems like Russia doesn't have a hope of actually holding Ukraine as a puppet state for any substantial amount of time even if they do gain control.

Add to that the financial problems they're going to start facing when the banks open Monday and the morale issues they are having with their troops, and it seems obvious that Putin put his country on the road to destruction with this invasion.

Really all he has right now is the threat of nuclear weapons; this invasion really laid bare all of Russia's weaknesses as well as galvanized most of the world against him. I just hope there's some people at the Kremlin to check him if he does try to do something crazy out of desperation.

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1 hour ago, rogue3542 said:

In some senses I think Putin's already lost, it's just a matter of when that is fully realized.

This invasion has pretty much dispelled the myth that Russia still possesses a formidable military.  They have some large numbers, but how many of these soldiers are untrained or barely trained? They'd be completely outmatched if a showdown with NATO ever happened, and their equipment is downright rudimentary compared to what other modern militaries can field.

I'm also beginning to wonder if Russia can actually "win" this invasion in the long term. They may overpower Ukraine at some point in the next few days, but I don't think it's as much of a foregone conclusion as everyone initially assumed. It also really seems like Russia doesn't have a hope of actually holding Ukraine as a puppet state for any substantial amount of time even if they do gain control.

Add to that the financial problems they're going to start facing when the banks open Monday and the morale issues they are having with their troops, and it seems obvious that Putin put his country on the road to destruction with this invasion.

Really all he has right now is the threat of nuclear weapons; this invasion really laid bare all of Russia's weaknesses as well as galvanized most of the world against him. I just hope there's some people at the Kremlin to check him if he does try to do something crazy out of desperation.

Interesting

Well put 

Thank you for posting this

 

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, rogue3542 said:

In some senses I think Putin's already lost, it's just a matter of when that is fully realized.

This invasion has pretty much dispelled the myth that Russia still possesses a formidable military.  They have some large numbers, but how many of these soldiers are untrained or barely trained? They'd be completely outmatched if a showdown with NATO ever happened, and their equipment is downright rudimentary compared to what other modern militaries can field.

I'm also beginning to wonder if Russia can actually "win" this invasion in the long term. They may overpower Ukraine at some point in the next few days, but I don't think it's as much of a foregone conclusion as everyone initially assumed. It also really seems like Russia doesn't have a hope of actually holding Ukraine as a puppet state for any substantial amount of time even if they do gain control.

Add to that the financial problems they're going to start facing when the banks open Monday and the morale issues they are having with their troops, and it seems obvious that Putin put his country on the road to destruction with this invasion.

Really all he has right now is the threat of nuclear weapons; this invasion really laid bare all of Russia's weaknesses as well as galvanized most of the world against him. I just hope there's some people at the Kremlin to check him if he does try to do something crazy out of desperation.

It does not seem to be going well for the Russians. And the people of Ukraine are winning over the rest of the world. 

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Reports that Putin put Russian Nuclear Forces on high alert are disturbing...

I heard one of the experts say that this would probably be an option for him, going as far as to say using a low grade nuclear weapon on the battlefield would happen if Putin thought his invasion was in trouble...

Edited by IUFLA
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2 minutes ago, IUFLA said:

Reports that Putin put Russian Nuclear Forces on high alert are disturbing...

I heard one of the experts that this would probably be an option for him, going as far as to say using a low grade nuclear weapon on the battlefield would happen if Putin thought his invasion was in trouble...

That's always been my fear since this started. Whether initial momentum is swinging one way or the other was always going to lead to this. Russians respect action. For those that remember the movie 13 days...this is starting to have a Cuban Missile Crisis feel to it where Putin might feel trapped and his only way out is to hit the button.

Praying it doesn't come to that because things could go bad...very, very fast. 

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28 minutes ago, IUFLA said:

Reports that Putin put Russian Nuclear Forces on high alert are disturbing...

I heard one of the experts say that this would probably be an option for him, going as far as to say using a low grade nuclear weapon on the battlefield would happen if Putin thought his invasion was in trouble...

This has been a concern of mine as well. Putin is all about saving face, and his ego won't let him look like he lost this war he started but might have a hard time finishing....without resorting to extreme tactics.

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12 hours ago, rogue3542 said:

In some senses I think Putin's already lost, it's just a matter of when that is fully realized.

This invasion has pretty much dispelled the myth that Russia still possesses a formidable military.  They have some large numbers, but how many of these soldiers are untrained or barely trained? They'd be completely outmatched if a showdown with NATO ever happened, and their equipment is downright rudimentary compared to what other modern militaries can field.

I'm also beginning to wonder if Russia can actually "win" this invasion in the long term. They may overpower Ukraine at some point in the next few days, but I don't think it's as much of a foregone conclusion as everyone initially assumed. It also really seems like Russia doesn't have a hope of actually holding Ukraine as a puppet state for any substantial amount of time even if they do gain control.

Add to that the financial problems they're going to start facing when the banks open Monday and the morale issues they are having with their troops, and it seems obvious that Putin put his country on the road to destruction with this invasion.

Really all he has right now is the threat of nuclear weapons; this invasion really laid bare all of Russia's weaknesses as well as galvanized most of the world against him. I just hope there's some people at the Kremlin to check him if he does try to do something crazy out of desperation.

I personally think this is going pretty on par with what Putin expected, but I hope you're correct. 

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1 hour ago, Drroogh said:

I’ve already been proven wrong on what’s happening but to think of Putin in your terms is foolish. Former KGB, he has many layers. Who knows what layer he is working in? Heck his endgame may be to get a date with Lady Ga-Ga?

Your posts seem cryptic?  

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It seems, so far, that Putin has made a miscalculation. There are anti-war protests in Russia and around the world. He’s united Ukraine. He’s united NATO. He’ even united Democrats and Republicans. What’s scary is how somebody who made such a big miscalculation will react with his back to the wall. He came about this invasion in an irrational way. And you don’t like an irrational despot even talking about nukes. 

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