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Is This 1936 All Over Again?


IUFLA

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15 minutes ago, dgambill said:

Anyone that has stood up to Putin....typically end up dead....even his political adversaries...his grip on power is very strong....much stronger than the avg dictator...and even those rarely get overthrown without significant outside influence...track record for citizenry succeeding is pretty low and the price very high.

I was going to make the same point...

These people have been dealing with the citizenry for years, and they have ears all over the place...communicating an organized uprising would be difficult and you're only gonna get one narrow shot at it...

Hitler was an amateur compared to Stalin in suppressing dissent and disposing of the evidence...

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53 minutes ago, tdhoosier said:

There's still the hundred of quotes and clips calling NATO weak, a bunch of suckers, made up of poor leadership, etc. He left the 2019 summit early after getting in fights with Trudeau and Macron. Now I'm not debating whether these actions were warranted, or is it necessarily a criticism of Trump. Putin is a leader who loves to control the narrative. This narrative was benefitting him because it gave validation to his criticisms toward NATO. Trump fought with NATO and its leaders until the end. I'm only pushing back against the assumption that Putin didn't wait to invade because he was afraid of Trump.  There's a whole lot more to it. And by the way Trump withdrew from Syria because he didn't want to be the 'world's police'. Nobody really knows if Trump would've lifted a finger to help Ukraine when push comes to shove (he's said a lot of conflicting things when it comes to foreign policy).

That said, contrary to what some may think, I agree with Trump that NATO needed to pay more of their fair share. I also think that we get into the middle of way too many conflicts. But that's not the point I was debating. I'm also not going  back to assign blame to past administrations. Putin is to blame for this, period. 

The good thing is that, as of right now, we ultimately seem to be on the same page. I've felt as a country we've need this for a while. Ironically, Putin is the one bringing us together....against him. 

I don't think the country is any more unified than we were before. This is not a 9-11 event for us. We may all be on agreement on standing up to him but this country is far far polarized. I would love us to come together but injustices happening overseas is not going to do that....we've seen it in almost all corners of the earth. We are largely numb to it. Over saturation with media in this country and when leaders and media on both sides basically turn every disagreement and opponent into NAZIs or Dictators etc or puppets/sympathicist of them when we really see what that looks like we should be ashamed of the name calling we've been doing to each other because it's awful and not even close to accurate. Akin to a young teenager watching porn for years and then seeing his first boobs in real life...certainly doesn't have the same effect as it should because he has been de-sensitized to the significance. I hope in the future we can ratchet down the rhetoric and stop trying to dehumanize each other over our disagreements....lesson the demonization...but I imagine that will only continue for a short while until the election cycle begins this fall.

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1 hour ago, dgambill said:

Anyone that has stood up to Putin....typically end up dead....even his political adversaries...his grip on power is very strong....much stronger than the avg dictator...and even those rarely get overthrown without significant outside influence...track record for citizenry succeeding is pretty low and the price very high.

I think I heard the people in Russia arrested for protesting are facing 20 year sentences.

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7 hours ago, Reacher said:

Hard to know how true any news coming out is but hard to see Zelensky surviving this-

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10558749/Kremlin-sends-400-mercenaries-Kyiv-assassinate-President-Zelensky.html

 

I think there is a lot of sensationalism being spread on the Ukrainian side to bolster support…lots of parliamentary people holding guns for photo ops…hard to say about some of these stories. Clearly if Putin wants to assassinate him he doesn’t need 400…but probably rather 4 of his best…but I get it…anything to help bring attention and support to the Ukrainian cause and sustain morale of their people to pick up and fight.

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7 hours ago, dgambill said:

I think there is a lot of sensationalism being spread on the Ukrainian side to bolster support…lots of parliamentary people holding guns for photo ops…hard to say about some of these stories. Clearly if Putin wants to assassinate him he doesn’t need 400…but probably rather 4 of his best…but I get it…anything to help bring attention and support to the Ukrainian cause and sustain morale of their people to pick up and fight.

6,798 Ukrainian Flag Stock Photos, Pictures & Royalty-Free Images - iStock

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I'm struggling to figure this out and I can't find the answer so I'll ask here. Purely strategy talking.

What's the strategy in invading Ukraine, causing world wide panic/fears/implications....only to sit down to peace talks within a week? Does Putin think his invasion is going so well this is the right move? I can't make sense of this strategy at all. 

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10 minutes ago, Seeking6 said:

I'm struggling to figure this out and I can't find the answer so I'll ask here. Purely strategy talking.

What's the strategy in invading Ukraine, causing world wide panic/fears/implications....only to sit down to peace talks within a week? Does Putin think his invasion is going so well this is the right move? I can't make sense of this strategy at all. 

I think the "peace talks" are a sham. A CYA for the world to see...

I think Putin is deranged and very dangerous at this point...

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Just now, IUFLA said:

I think the "peace talks" are a sham. A CYA for the world to see...

I think Putin is deranged and very dangerous at this point...

I can see that...or did he invade so that down the road he'll tell adversaries you know I'll invade so you better give me what I want? Just can't figure this out and it's probably just occams razor. Deranged thinking by Putin. 

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16 minutes ago, Seeking6 said:

I'm struggling to figure this out and I can't find the answer so I'll ask here. Purely strategy talking.

What's the strategy in invading Ukraine, causing world wide panic/fears/implications....only to sit down to peace talks within a week? Does Putin think his invasion is going so well this is the right move? I can't make sense of this strategy at all. 

 

4 minutes ago, IUFLA said:

I think the "peace talks" are a sham. A CYA for the world to see...

I think Putin is deranged and very dangerous at this point...

Putins "peace" talks are removing weapons from Ukraine and a permanent ban from NATO.  Basically a Russian victory. A defenseless Ukraine will eventually be run over by Russia. 

The strategy for invasion was the belief it would be quick and painless. Putin miscalculated the Ukranian resolve and the worldwide response. Now he is backed into a corner.

Edited by Reacher
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Really good article from someone who has studied Putin for years and explains what he is after and where this all started-  https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/02/28/world-war-iii-already-there-00012340?tpcc=nlceodaily

"So sadly, we are treading back through old historical patterns that we said that we would never permit to happen again. The other thing to think about in this larger historic context is how much the German business community helped facilitate the rise of Hitler. Right now, everyone who has been doing business in Russia or buying Russian gas and oil has contributed to Putin’s war chest. Our investments are not just boosting business profits, or Russia’s sovereign wealth funds and its longer-term development. They now are literally the fuel for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Ukraine has become the front line in a struggle, not just for which countries can or cannot be in NATO, or between democracies and autocracies, but in a struggle for maintaining a rules-based system in which the things that countries want are not taken by force. Every country in the world should be paying close attention to this. Yes, there may be countries like China and others who might think that this is permissible, but overall, most countries have benefited from the current international system in terms of trade and economic growth, from investment and an interdependent globalized world. This is pretty much the end of this. That’s what Russia has done."

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Wheat prices are way up. EU companies need to start importing natural gas now for next winter. The US and the Saudis need to increase the supply of oil ASAP.  Common people around the world will be feeling the effects of higher food and energy prices.

The world needs a leader to step forward and organize a united response to this Russian aggression and send a clear message that this type of behavior is not going to be condoned going forward. I like the idea of companies and countries pulling out of countries (Russia, China) that don't align with the values of the rest of the world. 

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8 minutes ago, Reacher said:

 

Putins "peace" talks are removing weapons from Ukraine and a permanent ban from NATO.  Basically a Russian victory. A defenseless Ukraine will eventually be run over by Russia. 

The strategy for invasion was the belief it would be quick and painless. Putin miscalculated the Ukranian resolve and the worldwide response. Now he is backed into a corner.

I was going to say the demands Russia puts forward will be so unreasonable that Ukraine won't be able to accept them.

I'm actually expecting some sad and tragic "incident" to happen soon...

I think Putin is past the point of no return...

 

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13 minutes ago, Reacher said:

Really good article. https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/02/28/world-war-iii-already-there-00012340?tpcc=nlceodaily

"So sadly, we are treading back through old historical patterns that we said that we would never permit to happen again. The other thing to think about in this larger historic context is how much the German business community helped facilitate the rise of Hitler. Right now, everyone who has been doing business in Russia or buying Russian gas and oil has contributed to Putin’s war chest. Our investments are not just boosting business profits, or Russia’s sovereign wealth funds and its longer-term development. They now are literally the fuel for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Ukraine has become the front line in a struggle, not just for which countries can or cannot be in NATO, or between democracies and autocracies, but in a struggle for maintaining a rules-based system in which the things that countries want are not taken by force. Every country in the world should be paying close attention to this. Yes, there may be countries like China and others who might think that this is permissible, but overall, most countries have benefited from the current international system in terms of trade and economic growth, from investment and an interdependent globalized world. This is pretty much the end of this. That’s what Russia has done."

I predict when the dust settles, greed will still exist in the global markets and Russian investments which can now be bought low, will.  

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3 minutes ago, IUFLA said:

I was going to say the demands Russia puts forward will be so unreasonable that Ukraine won't be able to accept them.

I'm actually expecting some sad and tragic "incident" to happen soon...

I think Putin is past the point of no return...

 

The US State or Defense or some other Department was out in front warning of a false flag event Russia would use to as rationale to invade. Have to think that may have shelved such a plan. Agree with you something of the kind is still on the drawing board.

Agree as well on your last point. A cornered man is unpredictable. Should be a telling week to see if Ukraine can hang strong and how Russia responds.

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1 minute ago, NotIThatLives said:

I predict when the dust settles, greed will still exist in the global markets and Russian investments which can now be bought low, will.  

Undoubtedly. But this new ESG paradigm should not be discounted. Companies like BP and Shell have already announced they are pulling out of Russian deals. At a cost of $25 Billion to BP. 

(ESG investing refers to ranking companies by scores in Environmental, Social and Governance categories and staying away from the lower ranked companies. It is predominant in Europe and growing fast here. One reason why we are not drilling enough oil here. Banks are penalized from loaning $ to fossil fuels and rewarded for supporting green energy. There will be a lot of unintended consequences despite the good intentions behind such a move)

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2 hours ago, Reacher said:

 

Putins "peace" talks are removing weapons from Ukraine and a permanent ban from NATO.  Basically a Russian victory. A defenseless Ukraine will eventually be run over by Russia. 

The strategy for invasion was the belief it would be quick and painless. Putin miscalculated the Ukranian resolve and the worldwide response. Now he is backed into a corner.

I think this is true, but i'm with @Seeking6: I still don't get it. haha. He had to know there'd be horrible economic consequences. Even if he got what he wanted out of Ukraine would he still really coming out ahead? Did he think the rest of the world was going to lay down and let him invade a sovereign state and not impose crippling economic consequences? 

I know the easy answer is that he's crazy, unstable, irrational, etc., but it still seems very dumb. And I can't shake that. 

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18 minutes ago, tdhoosier said:

I think this is true, but i'm with @Seeking6: I still don't get it. haha. He had to know there'd be horrible economic consequences. Even if he got what he wanted out of Ukraine would he still really coming out ahead? Did he think the rest of the world was going to lay down and let him invade a sovereign state and not impose crippling economic consequences? 

I know the easy answer is that he's crazy, unstable, irrational, etc., but it still seems very dumb. And I can't shake that. 

Glad I'm not the only one....and I'm talking about anyone or anything else just his own individual strategy. Just doesn't make sense yet.

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35 minutes ago, tdhoosier said:

I think this is true, but i'm with @Seeking6: I still don't get it. haha. He had to know there'd be horrible economic consequences. Even if he got what he wanted out of Ukraine would he still really coming out ahead? Did he think the rest of the world was going to lay down and let him invade a sovereign state and not impose crippling economic consequences? 

I know the easy answer is that he's crazy, unstable, irrational, etc., but it still seems very dumb. And I can't shake that. 

Putin can hold Europe and large swaths of the world "hostage" with their dependence on Russian Oil/Natural Gas and Ukrainian wheat. With control over the two biggest commodities on the world market he can bend the will of those around him to appease him and his moves across the world (think many third world countries with dependence on wheat and energy but have valuable strategic importance via other natural resources/location for Russia). As Ukraine has slowly moved away from Moscow to Western and EU influence Russia's influence over them and other countries continues to wane. Might even say this is the way to hold Russian power and world influence together is here and now for Putin. We might be able to produce plenty of energy and food and able to sustain the inflation/influx in prices but most economies across the world will suffer...uprisings/revolts against local govts who can't provide basic affordable living conditions...we aren't the only ones p!ssed off over inflation and price of basic commodities with our govt currently....it happens all over and in less stable govts can lead to govt changes.

Ukraine is vitally important to the world economy as is Russian energy (which flows through Ukraine). Combine that with the strategic importance of Ukraine with it's location and access to the Black Sea and that Russia already has Belarus in it's back pocket Ukraine's location would also basically allow Russia's military a much wider protection/launching point if it was to get involved in any campaign with Europe. The Ukraine was basically the cornerstone of the USSR....you can not return Russia to it's former glory without including Ukraine....and honestly with someone like Putin (who could reasonably say they know what he is thinking!!)....it could be as simple as that.

Edited by dgambill
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2 hours ago, tdhoosier said:

I think this is true, but i'm with @Seeking6: I still don't get it. haha. He had to know there'd be horrible economic consequences. Even if he got what he wanted out of Ukraine would he still really coming out ahead? Did he think the rest of the world was going to lay down and let him invade a sovereign state and not impose crippling economic consequences? 

I know the easy answer is that he's crazy, unstable, irrational, etc., but it still seems very dumb. And I can't shake that. 

2 hours ago, Seeking6 said:

Glad I'm not the only one....and I'm talking about anyone or anything else just his own individual strategy. Just doesn't make sense yet.

Read this article I linked earlier that explains his history and motivations as well as what @dgambill just posted 

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/02/28/world-war-iii-already-there-00012340?tpcc=nlceodaily

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