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Offseason 2022


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54 minutes ago, tdhoosier said:

But it is about +/-

Let’s forget about the term ‘mass substitution’ for a second. A ‘bad’ line up to me is one without one of TJD, Race and XJ on the floor. And whether this lineup came to fruition with one substitution or a few substitution (in the matter of a few minutes), we had a line up without 1 of our 3 best players on the floor. And this consistently happened 10 minutes into the first half. Did it not, or am I imagining that? 

Now IF, this ‘bad’ line up was consistently on the wrong side of a +/-, wouldn’t you want to find a way to avoid putting it on the floor? There are other ways to get these 3 guys rest. They don’t all have to get rest at the same time. 

But, late in the season.. when we finally were at full strength..  we didn't see that lineup, but for 1 min to 1.5 mins at a time. Then boom TJD or XJ was back in. 

I don't view RT as a necessity to have on the court because we have JG. 

And that lineup didn't have a consistent problem with maintaining a lead. You simply aren't going to beat someone for 40 consecutive mins, there are times where "maintaining" or even "not losing much" is the goal. 

We aren't going to have the same rotation vs Neb in game 2 of the B1G as we are against ILL in the quarters of the BTT. 

What does the bold mean? Are you saying its bad to sub then? 

Edited by btownqb
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2 hours ago, Steubenhoosier said:

Kopp played 450 more minutes than JG last year.

Kopp was 32-37 on free throws --86.5%/ JG 25-44--56.8%

Kopp OWS--.4 , DWS--1.1  WS--1.5

JG     OWS--.5 , DWS--.9  WS  .9

 

I'm going to look at these two stats totally differently than you.  

For FT's, I'm not going to look at the %.  I'm looking at FT Rate compared to minutes on the floor.  Kopp played more than twice the minutes, but for the sake of argument, let's say it's double the minutes.  Where you see Kopp with a higher percentage, I see JG hitting 50 FTs if he played the same minutes as Kopp.  IU gets a net point benefit of 18 (50 compared to 32).  Plus, I see JG drawing more fouls on the defense, which puts us in the bonus quicker, and potentially puts key players on the bench.

For win shares, the difference is even more drastic.  You posted raw win share numbers.  Again, assume those double, JG's numbers if he played Kopp's minutes would be OWS..... 1.0.........DWS.......1,8.

As it is, according to https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/indiana/2022.html, here are their W/S per 40

  • JG - .129 (4th on team behind TJD, RT, & XJ)
  • MK - .070 (8th on team not counting Duncomb or Childress, who he trails).  Kopp also is behind Stewart in this category.  PS win shares per 40 was .80

I'll leave it up to Woodson how to juggle minutes.  But, if he could find a way to get JG some minutes at the 3, the numbers say he should do it.

 

Edited by 5fouls
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1 hour ago, Purdue7 said:

No chance CMW promises starting spots for anyone 

He may not verbally promise starting spots.  But, he damn well knows TJD is starting next year if he comes back.  And, TJD is not being presumptuous if he believes that to be the case.  

Edited by 5fouls
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1 hour ago, 5fouls said:

I'm going to look at these two stats totally differently than you.  

For FT's, I'm not going to look at the %.  I'm looking at FT Rate compared to minutes on the floor.  Kopp played more than twice the minutes, but for the sake of argument, let's say it's double the minutes.  Where you see Kopp with a higher percentage, I see JG hitting 50 FTs if he played the same minutes as Kopp.  IU gets a net point benefit of 18 (50 compared to 32).  Plus, I see JG drawing more fouls on the defense, which puts us in the bonus quicker, and potentially puts key players on the bench.

For win shares, the difference is even more drastic.  You posted raw win share numbers.  Again, assume those double, JG's numbers if he played Kopp's minutes would be OWS..... 1.0.........DWS.......1,8.

As it is, according to https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/indiana/2022.html, here are their W/S per 40

  • JG - .129 (4th on team behind TJD, RT, & XJ)
  • MK - .070 (8th on team not counting Duncomb or Childress, who he trails).  Kopp also is behind Stewart in this category.  PS win shares per 40 was .80

I'll leave it up to Woodson how to juggle minutes.  But, if he could find a way to get JG some minutes at the 3, the numbers say he should do it.

 

Understand what you are saying given the statistics you used.

How much would the additional turnovers that would inevitably come with more minutes detract from the offensive benefits?

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If Geronimo wants minutes he needs to get better. Better on defense both perimeter and interior. Better ball handling. Better 3 pt shooting. Less fouls. Do that and you we get minutes. If he thinks he needs to go elsewhere to get minutes I’m not sure you want him. You need guys that want to play hard and earn minutes. That is what will are us better. That is what will get Geronimo to the next level. Not leaving simply to get minutes. My hope is he stays and puts the work in. He has potential to be a impact player. 

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So can I just say regarding Geronimo that while I’m a huge fan of his, he’s an incredibly replaceable player based on what we’ve seen thus far. I hope he stays and continues to develop, but I can just as easily see Banks stepping in to his role and us not missing him.

If the question is Race or Geronimo, I don’t see see how it’s been this much back and forth. It’s Race all day, every day. 

Edited by KoB2011
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1 hour ago, 94hoosier said:

If Geronimo wants minutes he needs to get better. Better on defense both perimeter and interior. Better ball handling. Better 3 pt shooting. Less fouls. Do that and you we get minutes. If he thinks he needs to go elsewhere to get minutes I’m not sure you want him. You need guys that want to play hard and earn minutes. That is what will are us better. That is what will get Geronimo to the next level. Not leaving simply to get minutes. My hope is he stays and puts the work in. He has potential to be a impact player. 

I've thought this same thing.  Iron sharpens iron...stay and earn those minutes on a better team.

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1 hour ago, 94hoosier said:

If Geronimo wants minutes he needs to get better. Better on defense both perimeter and interior. Better ball handling. Better 3 pt shooting. Less fouls. Do that and you we get minutes. If he thinks he needs to go elsewhere to get minutes I’m not sure you want him. You need guys that want to play hard and earn minutes. That is what will are us better. That is what will get Geronimo to the next level. Not leaving simply to get minutes. My hope is he stays and puts the work in. He has potential to be a impact player. 

Thank you for saying this, couldn’t agree more. He could start at the 4 or 3, let’s not sit here and act like Race and Kopp were all Americans this season and the writing is on the wall with playing time. JG plays well at the 4 but he should realistically play the 3 with his physique, but it wouldn’t shock me if Kopp found his groove next year and Galloway developed an outside shot quicker than JG and took those remaining minutes. 
 

Plus even if Race left, not sure that guarantees starting minutes for JG. Could see woody using 3 guards, which would make a guy like Kopp likely play the 4 instead. Also Banks is a solid recruit and we’re heavily recruiting Malik Reneau so JG needs to remind himself he hasn’t played basketball for that long and there’s a lot of room for growth. 

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Man, couldn't read this board today and get back and this post went crazy.  First on the lineup discussion I never liked when he had all 5 starters out at the same time.  I am.in favor of an 8 man rotation and you should have at least 3 starters on the floor at all times.  You have 2 PG, 3 guys for the two wing positions and 3 guys for the 4-5 position.  You can rotate them enough to get everyone some rest.  Also most of the year you are saying 2 games a week so players shouldn't be tired.  You also get 5 TV timeouts a half so I don't see how college players not being able to play 30+ minutes.

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5 hours ago, KoB2011 said:

Hartman is a great comparison for Kopp. They're both solid guys that don't make mistakes and can shoot a little bit. 

If Hartman is the measure of what we expect from our starting wing then well that explains our success the past few years. Both guys seem great guys…nice players…but that ain’t cutting it in helping us win more games. Geronimo also is only a 4 until he can put the ball on the floor and also learn to read a defense and make better decisions with the ball (passing). I haven’t followed this whole thread but Kopp at the 3 while most likely the best option we had…is very very underwhelming option overall and I can’t think of one B1G opponent would say he was the superior player in that matchup. Not hating just saying it isn’t good enough. Not good enough if IU wants to be a top 10 team again. You want to bring Kopp off the bench I ain’t going to be mad but we need a huge upgrade in talent and skill at almost every position on our roster. I honestly don’t see the point in arguing much over this roster. Outside of Trayce unless some guys make some big leaps no one currently on the roster I would say is is of the quality necessary to help us win the B1G next year. We had very few matchups at any position outside Trayce most nights that I’d say we had the advantage. We need talent upgrade across the board. Either through development, recruiting, or portal. 

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2 hours ago, KoB2011 said:

So can I just say regarding Geronimo that while I’m a huge fan of his, he’s an incredibly replaceable player based on what we’ve seen thus far. I hope he stays and continues to develop, but I can just as easily see Banks stepping in to his role and us not missing him.

If the question is Race or Geronimo, I don’t see see how it’s been this much back and forth. It’s Race all day, every day. 

Although I agree with some you said. Replaceable is not correct. He’s literally the only NBA talent we have (assuming TJD leaves). NBA talent isn’t replaceable 

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46 minutes ago, IUKane21 said:

Although I agree with some you said. Replaceable is not correct. He’s literally the only NBA talent we have (assuming TJD leaves). NBA talent isn’t replaceable 

He's no where close to NBA talent right now, what are you talking about? 

He may have NBA level athleticism, but he's a 6'6 stretch 4 so he has a lot of skill development to go to get drafted. He's no more likely to play in the NBA than Bates, X, JHS, or Banks at this point. 

Edited by KoB2011
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I hate to rag on Geronimo because I like him, hope he stays, and am cautiously optimistic we can count on him for 20 MPG if we need to next year but....

He's not OG, he's not close to OG. OG could guard anywhere on the floor, was a knock down three point shooter, and hit 70% of his shots around the rim. He was better than Geronimo in every facet of the game, many by a a wide margin. He was a lottery pick on one leg. 

If we are trying to make the uber athletic comparison, he isn't even close to Troy Wililams right now. At this exact point in time, his best comparison is a shorter HMP with a slightly better shot. 

Edited by KoB2011
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18 hours ago, RoadToZion said:

Unfortunately, the signing does not lock them into anything. They don't have stipulations in the agreement. They can easily make the $ and not come back next year. 

I would hope they have better characters than to sign a deal and take money only to leave a month later. If that happened I hope Cook pulls back every cent.

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4 hours ago, KoB2011 said:

I hate to rag on Geronimo because I like him, hope he stays, and am cautiously optimistic we can count on him for 20 MPG if we need to next year but....

He's not OG, he's not close to OG. OG could guard anywhere on the floor, was a knock down three point shooter, and hit 70% of his shots around the rim. He was better than Geronimo in every facet of the game, many by a a wide margin. He was a lottery pick on one leg. 

If we are trying to make the uber athletic comparison, he isn't even close to Troy Wililams right now. At this exact point in time, his best comparison is a shorter HMP with a slightly better shot. 

If everyone on IU but TJD entered the Portal, Geronimo would get more offers than any other player.  

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47 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

If everyone on IU but TJD entered the Portal, Geronimo would get more offers than any other player.  

Maybe, maybe not. We don’t have anyway to really know that so it’s all conjecture. I can think of better athletes from IU that had similar production and didn’t have a long list of suitors.

From my perspective I can’t think of too many (any?) good teams I can confidently say he would start for right now without major improvement. If he is leaving because he wants a guaranteed starters role or major minutes and we won’t guarantee that… bye. If the choice is between him and Race, who was honorable mention all league I am keeping Race.

I hope he stays and proves himself because I do think he has nice upside and is a good kid.

 

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