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CFB Playoff


landrus13

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Hate the idea of Ohio St backing into playoffs....but the thought of Saban backing in again and again and again pains me even more. Which means TCU loses today and both Ohio St and Bama back in.

I will be curious though to see what value the CFP uses. Is 1 home loss by 22 worse or better than 2 last second losses by Bama?

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7 minutes ago, Seeking6 said:

Hate the idea of Ohio St backing into playoffs....but the thought of Saban backing in again and again and again pains me even more. Which means TCU loses today and both Ohio St and Bama back in.

I will be curious though to see what value the CFP uses. Is 1 home loss by 22 worse or better than 2 last second losses by Bama?

I am curious as well. I don’t buy the consensus that seems to be forming around OSU - not saying it won’t be OSU, just that I don’t think it’s an easy decision.

Does the LSU result today impact it? Would LSU getting blown out be perceived worse for Bama than if LSU lost at the end of a close game?

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9 minutes ago, KoB2011 said:

I am curious as well. I don’t buy the consensus that seems to be forming around OSU - not saying it won’t be OSU, just that I don’t think it’s an easy decision.

Does the LSU result today impact it? Would LSU getting blown out be perceived worse for Bama than if LSU lost at the end of a close game?

Definitely....and my guess is that if Kirby has the opportunity he isn't going to let his foot off the gas. 

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17 minutes ago, Seeking6 said:

Hate the idea of Ohio St backing into playoffs....but the thought of Saban backing in again and again and again pains me even more. Which means TCU loses today and both Ohio St and Bama back in.

I will be curious though to see what value the CFP uses. Is 1 home loss by 22 worse or better than 2 last second losses by Bama?

Well LSU is a complete fraud. 

So, yes, the 2 losses Bama had are quite a bit worse than one loss to #2 by OSU. 

22pts was a bit inflated at the end. Not saying it makes it better, but OSU could have done things to "not lose by 22" if that makes sense. 

Could have easily just lost by like 10. 

I can't think of a scenario where OSU shouldn't be #4. 

And actually to me... the playoff games are set---- Michigan vs TCU and OSU vs UGA. Regardless of results today, sans UGA losing. 

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2 minutes ago, btownqb said:

Even if TCU loses they should be in and for some reason if they are passed by a 2 loss SEC team--- that should be Tennessee, not Bama. 

That's what was surprising to me last night. The second USC went down the Bama talk started up by the usual suspects and I'm like what am I missing here? Tennessee should get in over Bama.

 

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1 minute ago, Seeking6 said:

That's what was surprising to me last night. The second USC went down the Bama talk started up by the usual suspects and I'm like what am I missing here? Tennessee should get in over Bama.

 

I think the "Hooker is out" thing is the excuse they're using. 

Either way.. I think it's a beatdown in ATL today. 

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7 minutes ago, btownqb said:

Well LSU is a complete fraud. 

So, yes, the 2 losses Bama had are quite a bit worse than one loss to #2 by OSU. 

22pts was a bit inflated at the end. Not saying it makes it better, but OSU could have done things to "not lose by 22" if that makes sense. 

Could have easily just lost by like 10. 

I can't think of a scenario where OSU shouldn't be #4. 

And actually to me... the playoff games are set---- Michigan vs TCU and OSU vs UGA. Regardless of results today, sans UGA losing. 

I don't necessarily disagree with anything you've said, but it is all also kinda based on emotion, feelings, and perception. There is also a similar argument to be made in favor of Bama over OSU.

The numbers and data are not as clear cut.

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6 minutes ago, btownqb said:

I think the "Hooker is out" thing is the excuse they're using. 

Either way.. I think it's a beatdown in ATL today. 

I don't think it's just because Hooker is out. The data tends to favor Bama, too. A last play of the game win for UT over Bama, at UT isn't the only thing they'd have to evaluate. 

UT got destroyed by USCe and it had nothing to do with Hooker's injury. 

The reality is, Bama's only loss in regulation came on the last play of the game on a long field goal to a team that you're both sitting here and arguing is CFP good. How exactly does that disqualify Bama? 

EDIT: And Bryce Young was playing injured stall in the UT game. 

Edited by KoB2011
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14 minutes ago, btownqb said:

Even if TCU loses they should be in and for some reason if they are passed by a 2 loss SEC team--- that should be Tennessee, not Bama. 

I agree about the Vols, however they are missing their QB.  Does the committee take that into consideration?

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10 minutes ago, KoB2011 said:

I don't think it's just because Hooker is out. The data tends to favor Bama, too. A last play of the game win for UT over Bama, at UT isn't the only thing they'd have to evaluate. 

UT got destroyed by USCe and it had nothing to do with Hooker's injury. 

The reality is, Bama's only loss in regulation came on the last play of the game on a long field goal to a team that you're both sitting here and arguing is CFP good. How exactly does that disqualify Bama? 

EDIT: And Bryce Young was playing injured stall in the UT game. 

Tennessee and Bama have the same record. Tennessee beat Bama and beat the other team that beat Bama... by a lot. 

What impressive win does Bama have? 

At Ole Miss (8-4)

At Texas (8-4) 

Outside of that, it's very poor resume and those two wins are "okay". 

Tennessee has 2 wins better than both of those and has one that's as good. 

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4 minutes ago, btownqb said:

Tennessee and Bama have the same record. Tennessee beat Bama and beat the other team that beat Bama... by a lot. 

What impressive win does Bama have? 

At Ole Miss (8-4)

At Texas (8-4) 

Outside of that, it's very poor resume and those two wins are "okay". 

Tennessee has 2 wins better than both of those and has one that's as good. 

I mean you just ignored one argument completely, so there's that.

But Bama also has SOR, GC, and FPI in their favor over UT. 

And again, I'm not sure UT beating Bama on a last second field goal at UT, when Hooker was healthy and Young wasn't, is a mark in favor of UT now that those two have flipped who is healthy. 

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4 minutes ago, KoB2011 said:

I mean you just ignored one argument completely, so there's that.

But Bama also has SOR, GC, and FPI in their favor over UT. 

And again, I'm not sure UT beating Bama on a last second field goal at UT, when Hooker was healthy and Young wasn't, is a mark in favor of UT now that those two have flipped who is healthy. 

FPI, GC, and SOR don't trump Tennessee beating Bama. I'm not sure why those are even being used when discussing 2 teams that played H2H. Personally, I thought it was a gift Bama was in the game, at all. 

Hookers injury is the reason they're below Bama. Bryce Young threw for 455 vs Tennessee... he was fine. 

This seems very simple. Same record, same conference... Bama lost H2H and they couldn't beat LSU. 

I hope this is all irrelevant though, none of the teams ahead of Bama should be below Bama come tomorrow, other than USC. 

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28 minutes ago, btownqb said:

I didnt argue Tennessee is "CFP good". I said they should be ahead of a team they beat. I don't think either deserve to be in, but that some sorcery to try and convince ppl Bama should be ahead of the Vols. 

Okay, I'll bite, what's the argument for OSU being conclusively ahead of either of those teams?

My argument isn't that OSU won't be in front of them both, it's that it isn't clear cut at all. And you've not presented anything in favor of the team who got beat by 22 at home by a team missing their best player. 

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31 minutes ago, btownqb said:

FPI, GC, and SOR don't trump Tennessee beating Bama. I'm not sure why those are even being used when discussing 2 teams that played H2H. Personally, I thought it was a gift Bama was in the game, at all. 

Hookers injury is the reason they're below Bama. Bryce Young threw for 455 vs Tennessee... he was fine. 

This seems very simple. Same record, same conference... Bama lost H2H and they couldn't beat LSU. 

I hope this is all irrelevant though, none of the teams ahead of Bama should be below Bama come tomorrow, other than USC. 

No one single argument trumps all the other arguments, who said it does? There are a ton of data points to look, H2H is one, and so are those, and so is the eye test, etc. 

The debate is who are the best four teams in the country, not who is best between Bama and UT, or Bama and OSU. Just because the first three spots in that equation are obvious doesn't mean you change how spot 4 is evaluated. If H2H is some overweighted metric (like you're making it for Bama, but not OSU) OSU has to be completely out of the discussion, they got stomped H2H at home by a team they're being evaluated against. Is that really what you want? I mean Illinois played Michigan a significantly closer game H2H than OSU, so should they be? Or is it dumb to only look at that single data point?

When you look at the totality of the body of work, you have two teams with a compelling argument for the fourth spot

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1 minute ago, KoB2011 said:

Okay, I'll bite, what's the argument for OSU being conclusively ahead of either of those teams?

My argument isn't that OSU won't be in front of them both, it's that it isn't clear cut at all. And you've not presented anything in favor of the team who got beat by 22 at home by a team missing their best player. 

Well... 11-1 trumps 10-2. 

OSU handled Top 10 Penn St on the road.. which dwarfs any win Bama has.

OSUs win vs ND is as good as Bamas best two wins. 

OSU was down 8 with 8 mins to go. 🤷‍♂️

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1 minute ago, KoB2011 said:

No one single argument trumps all the other arguments, who said it does? There are a ton of data points to look, H2H is one, and so are those, and so is the eye test, etc. 

The debate is who are the best four teams in the country, not who is best between Bama and UT, or Bama and OSU. Just because the first three spots in that equation are obvious doesn't mean you change how spot 4 is evaluated. If H2H is some overweighted metric (like you're making it for Bama, but not OSU) OSU has to be completely out of the discussion, they got stomped H2H at home by a team they're being evaluated against. Is that really what you want? I mean Illinois played Michigan a significantly closer game H2H than OSU, so should they be? Or is it dumb to only look at that single data point?

When you look at the totality of the body of work, you have two teams with a compelling argument for the fourth spot

They absolutely weren't stomped. And if we look at totality, OSU is clearly ahead of Bama... as every poll shows. 

I still don't see what would qualify Bama ahead of OSU or how you could argue it. They were the 4th team in the SEC, literally. 

H2H has always been by far the most important aspect of these discussions. 

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2 minutes ago, btownqb said:

They absolutely weren't stomped. And if we look at totality, OSU is clearly ahead of Bama... as every poll shows. 

I still don't see what would qualify Bama ahead of OSU or how you could argue it. They were the 4th team in the SEC, literally. 

H2H has always been by far the most important aspect of these discussions. 

Bama is also 5 points and a Quinn Ewers injury away from 4 losses. Without playing Georgia.  And only 8 conference games. 

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