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Chances we pass PSU for 6th in the B1G


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Looking at the B1G tournament bracket, 7th place plays 10th place on Thursday, with it being both teams first game. 6th place plays the winner of 11th vs 14th from Wednesday. Currently, the Hoosiers are 7th, a half game behind PSU. Moving up to 6th could be big, since it means playing a team that played the previous day and potentially the worst team in the B1G if 14 upsets 11.

PSU currently has OSU, @PU, MI, and @NE remaining on their schedule, while the Hoosiers have @IA, @NE, and OSU. 

HSN3.0, do you think we'll pass PSU? Do you think the difference between the 6th seed vs the 7th seed is important? Overall thoughts on our chances in the tournament?

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I think we’ll get the 6 seed.  No way Penn State finishes better than 2-2 over their last 4 games, which would put them at 10-8.  We should be able to go 2-1 to get to 10-8, and we have the tiebreaker.  Even if we go 1-2, there’s a good chance Penn State goes 1-3 and we have the tiebreaker over them at 9-9.  

Getting the 6 seed might be important, because I would rather not play a 10 seed Wisconsin in the first round of the BTT.

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2 minutes ago, IU Scott said:

Yes I do because PSU is pretty brutal and also remember we only have to tie them since we beat them to get the 6th spot.

Good point on the tie-breaker. They have the rougher schedule remaining since other than common games OSU and @NE, they have @PU and MI while we only have @IA, but we do have the additional loss already. 

It will be rough when they play PU, because I can't root for both teams to lose.

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2 minutes ago, FW_Hoosier said:

I think we’ll get the 6 seed.  No way Penn State finishes better than 2-2 over their last 4 games, which would put them at 10-8.  We should be able to go 2-1 to get to 10-8, and we have the tiebreaker.  Even if we go 1-2, there’s a good chance Penn State goes 1-3 and we have the tiebreaker over them at 9-9.  

Getting the 6 seed might be important, because I would rather not play a 10 seed Wisconsin in the first round of the BTT.

Yeah I was looking at the potential matchup with WI, and thought that might be bad given our lack of success vs. them, but I also wouldn't mind getting another shot at them while they're down and since I believe IU is much improved since they played.

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I'm not as concerned about our place as where we are in the bracket.....and it's a huge crapshoot right now. MSU and PU both have an easier schedule than OSU the rest of the season, but if the season ended now....give me the top half of that bracket, which has a path that'll go through OSU, Nebraska and UM. (even if that means falling to 8th)

I think it's very likely that there is a 3 way tie for first place. Can somebody remind me how those tie-breakers are decided when determining the seeding for the conference tournament? 

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3 minutes ago, tdhoosier said:

I'm not as concerned about our place as where we are in the bracket.....and it's a huge crapshoot right now. MSU and PU both have an easier schedule than OSU the rest of the season, but if the season ended now....give me the top half of that bracket, which has a path that'll go through OSU, Nebraska and UM. (even if that means falling to 8th)

I think it's very likely that there is a 3 way tie for first place. Can somebody remind me how those tie-breakers are decided when determining the seeding for the conference tournament? 

Here you go: http://www.bigten.org/sports/m-baskbl/spec-rel/100606aae.html

Completely agree on the bracket. Getting the 8 seed and then playing the 1 and the 4 to the get to the championship is more palatable than playing the 2 and the 3. Regardless of how the 1-3 seeds hold up. That 4 seed is a big step down from the top 3.

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1 hour ago, CauseThatsMyDJ said:

50/50. There is a real chance we go 0-3 to close out the regular season. Too early to be talking about this scenario, but will be interesting to see how it plays out. We could still realistically finish as low as 9th.

...and there's a real chance that Penn State goes 0-4 the last four games.

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4 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

I want no part of the 6th seed if MSU is the 3rd seed.   I will take whatever seed is the easiest route to the semis.  Who knows what can happen at that point.  But if we play MSU as their first game in the tourney, we have no chance.

Given MSU's remaining schedule, I find the 3 seed a longshot for them. Purdue loses the tiebreaker against them, even if it is a 3 way tie with OSU. It would be 1. OSU, 2. MSU, 3. Purdue. Only way MSU ends up 3 is if they drop one and Purdue wins out.

Purdue is the much more likely 3 seed at this point. Unless OSU manages to lose twice in their last 4 games (possible) and falls to 3rd. 

I think MSU is really the least likely of the three teams to end up the 3 seed.

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3 minutes ago, hoosiertildeath said:

I think IU Fans should be just hoping that IU does not have to play in the OPENING ROUND of the B10 post season Tournament ! Those poor  4 teams have to WIN 5 games in a row to win the B10 Tournament  !!! Wiining FOUR in a row is HARD ENOUGH !!

We are already mathematically clear of playing on the opening day. Our worst possible seed is 10.

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Good point about the path of the 6th seed going forward being rough this season. One of the few seeds where you could have to play all 3 top seeds, but the 7th seed is no different. Really would have to drop to 8th to avoid it. Sounds like 8th seed with OSU as the 1 would be most ideal.

20 hours ago, CauseThatsMyDJ said:

Here you go: http://www.bigten.org/sports/m-baskbl/spec-rel/100606aae.html

Completely agree on the bracket. Getting the 8 seed and then playing the 1 and the 4 to the get to the championship is more palatable than playing the 2 and the 3. Regardless of how the 1-3 seeds hold up. That 4 seed is a big step down from the top 3.

 

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29 minutes ago, CauseThatsMyDJ said:

Nice tool to tinker with to see how different outcomes will result in different seedings.

http://bball.notnothing.net/big10.php?sport=mbb

That's cool. The default winners based on Sagarin have us at 8th vs. Northwestern in the 1st round which wouldn't be bad, but MSU at #1 is my least favorite matchup of the 3 teams vying for 1st.

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Another off day in the B1G. Here is how KenPom sees things playing out now:

1. Michigan State (16-2)

2. Ohio State (15-3)

Purdue (15-3)

4. Nebraska (13-5)

5. Michigan (11-7)

6. Penn State (10-8)

7. Indiana (9-9)

8. Maryland (8-10)

Northwestern (8-10)

10. Wisconsin (6-12)

11. Minnesota (4-14)

Rutgers (4-14)

Iowa (4-14)

14. Illinois (3-15)

Our road if seeds held would be Wisconsin -> OSU -> Purdue -> MSU

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23 minutes ago, CauseThatsMyDJ said:

Another off day in the B1G. Here is how KenPom sees things playing out now:

1. Michigan State (16-2)

2. Ohio State (15-3)

Purdue (15-3)

4. Nebraska (13-5)

5. Michigan (11-7)

6. Penn State (10-8)

7. Indiana (9-9)

8. Maryland (8-10)

Northwestern (8-10)

10. Wisconsin (6-12)

11. Minnesota (4-14)

Rutgers (4-14)

Iowa (4-14)

14. Illinois (3-15)

Our road if seeds held would be Wisconsin -> OSU -> Purdue -> MSU

That would be brutal, but fantastic if we were to win 4 games against those teams to win our 1st B1G tourney. Even the most optimistic fans, would be hard pressed to think we'd pull that off.

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1 hour ago, CauseThatsMyDJ said:

Our road if seeds held would be Wisconsin -> OSU -> Purdue -> MSU

 

1 hour ago, cybergates said:

That would be brutal, but fantastic if we were to win 4 games against those teams to win our 1st B1G tourney. Even the most optimistic fans, would be hard pressed to think we'd pull that off.

Fingers crossed that we can pull ahead of PSU (PSU should never finish better than IU in basketball).

If i'm going to dream....  Beating that trio, winning the BTT and making it into the Dance would vault Archie into God like status and give us Romeo and whatever other recruits he wants.

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22 minutes ago, Reacher said:

 

Fingers crossed that we can pull ahead of PSU (PSU should never finish better than IU in basketball).

If i'm going to dream....  Beating that trio, winning the BTT and making it into the Dance would vault Archie into God like status and give us Romeo and whatever other recruits he wants.

Ha. If that happened we'd be the most dangerous 10 seed in history. 

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6 hours ago, CauseThatsMyDJ said:

Another off day in the B1G. Here is how KenPom sees things playing out now:

1. Michigan State (16-2)

2. Ohio State (15-3)

Purdue (15-3)

4. Nebraska (13-5)

5. Michigan (11-7)

6. Penn State (10-8)

7. Indiana (9-9)

8. Maryland (8-10)

Northwestern (8-10)

10. Wisconsin (6-12)

11. Minnesota (4-14)

Rutgers (4-14)

Iowa (4-14)

14. Illinois (3-15)

Our road if seeds held would be Wisconsin -> OSU -> Purdue -> MSU

I think that would actually be our best road, outside of Wisconsin in the first round.  Of the top 3, I think we have the best chance of beating OSU and the worst chance of beating MSU.

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i am usually not the optimist, but i think we finish 6th and if we do, i think that is phenomenal.  i said going into the season that there was a reason everyone other than our message board was picking us somewhere between 7-9 in the conference.  6 would exceed expectations to me.  it would also give us a great chance to have a solid showing in the conference tourney.  i also love that PU is looking like a likely 3 seed in their National Championship season.  

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