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Iowa Pregame Thread


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When: Saturday, 2/17, 2pm ET on ESPN (Dan Dakich on the call)

KenPom: Essentially a toss up, predicts Iowa 77-76 with a 47% chance for an IU win

ESPN: 42% chance of an IU victory

Vegas: IU -1

HTD's censured crystal ball: Iowa 81 IU 70

 

Iowa has not been an easy out at home recently. Since getting crushed by Purdue, they beat Wisconsin 85-67, Minnesota 94-80, and only lost to MSU 96-93. They have four guys averaging double figures, with Tyler Cook leading the way at 15. No one on the team averages more than 7 rebounds. They have some 3 point shooters, as Jordan Bohannon shoots 44%, and Miashe Dailey and Brady Ellingson both shoot 40%. 

 

Four Factors

IU

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Iowa

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We are now the #1 defense in the B1G, conference games only considered. Meanwhile, Iowa is the WORST defense in the B1G, only considering conference games. They don't force turnovers and struggle to keep teams off the offensive glass.  They also turn the ball over worse than everybody but Illinois, and we are the second best team in the league at turning the other team over. They are the best offensive rebounding team in the league, so Morgan, McSwain and Smith have their work cut out for them on the defensive glass.

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I expect a pretty good showing from us. 

Iowa is going to see a completely different team than they saw earlier this year at AH when we beat them handily. Not only from a performance standpoint, but from a personnel standpoint. Justin Smith played 7 minutes. McSwain played 4 and McRoberts played 12. 

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Before the season (and healthy) I was hoping for a split between this one and Nebraska. I would love it if that happened. I expect a back and forth game. Probably something in the 78-74 range. Not sure who wins. Hate needing road wins but to keep our momentum going (and before we play at Nebraska) this is almost a must win. 

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UNFORTUNATELY ,  My new crystal Ball predicts IOWA 81 IU 70 !! For what it is worth , IOWA has always been a hard place for IU to win [ on the road] !! I hope that censured Crystal Ball is WRONG !! Go Hoosiers , Make MY Crystal Ball Look silly !!

P.S. I see this as a MUST WIN GAME only in the sense that if IU is to make the "Big Dance"  this season They need to win ALL of their remainINg Conference games to finish 11 & 7 in the conference race !! I see that as the ONLY way IU makes the Big Dance  this season , UNLESS IU wins the post season BIG TEN TOURNAMENT and gets an automatic BID for winning the B10 Tournament ! I don't really see either scenario playing out that way ,  BUT that is why we play the GAME baby !! Go Hoosiers !!

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5 minutes ago, Drroogh said:

Actually I think a large part of our improved play has to do with Freddie. He’s not all anything, but he covers a world of sins!

I agree that he is a large part too. The more mature Green we have seen has added som much needed additional scoring punch. Freddie has been solid rebounding and playing defense. It’s nice to have multiple guys stepping up. 

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6 minutes ago, Parakeet Jones said:

I agree that he is a large part too. The more mature Green we have seen has added som much needed additional scoring punch. Freddie has been solid rebounding and playing defense. It’s nice to have multiple guys stepping up. 

Absolutely agree!

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I see Archie starting to mould Green. His plays and passing have become more mature. Yes he still makes mistakes but his passing can be awesome sometimes which in turn helps the team. Him getting more run time has helped his confidence which in turn has helped his shooting. I also love to watch when his guy starts to out play him he tries to take it personal. Freddie playing and stepping up has been really good too. I just wished he would hit free throws at like a 70% clip rather than a 50% clip. At least that is what it feels like. You can see guys coming together and making their separate parts become a whole. Also it does seem like Archie likes his mobiles to be quick and mobile because of the major hedging going on then the recovery of the hedger and helper. Hope this trend keeps up. 

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