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Next Season’s Expectations


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I really want to have a positive outlook on this team, but we are going to have a bunch of new guys that need to step up.  Don’t get me wrong, I think this team could be very solid, but there are a lot of question marks minus Juwan Morgan. Will Deron be quicker than a 35 year old Al Jefferson?  How much has Race developed during the year on the bench?  Is RP the PG we’ve been clamoring for or does Green remove his head from his sphincter?  Can the freshman hit jumpers because no one coming back can (outside of Green on rare occasions)?  Can McRoberts add offense to his game?  Do we add a grad transfer if we don’t land Romeo?  Will anyone transfer?

Based on who we have committed now I think next year we get into the tourney as a 6-8 seed and hopefully show signs of life on the offensive end.  As I write this prediction, I realize how difficult it is to be an IU fan.  What I would give for year in and year out consistency. Hopefully we’re headed in that direction, but I’m not comfortable after the way this season ended.

 

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The foundation and culture will continue to be established next year. The results will depend on the roster.  Romeo, transfers, and our players transferring will play a huge role in our overall record. I hate to admit it, but the unknown/anticipation might provide the most excitement for me as an IU fan over the next few months.

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We NEEEEED to find a Ziesloft in the worst possible way. Give us some shooting, balance the classes a little bit. If we can find a Ziesloft/Sheehey combo that'd be nice. Cuz I think this group of guys could use a guy that other teams can't stand and that backs up his antics with his play. 

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17 minutes ago, NotIThatLives said:

Al may very well pass Green.  His attack last night was impressive.  I can see him making a rather large frosh to soph jump.  

Al played very well last night! He actually has me excited to see what he will become. Great fill for the game and knowing when to attack and he draws fouls like crazy. Makes very few mistakes but I hope he can shoot it at least 35% From three and then will have heck of a player. 

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Don’t think you can expect much more than making the tournament at this point.  Juwan coming back and landing Romeo will help the outlook.  But I’m not going to get my hopes up too much — pretty much the only thing you can count on when it comes to IU basketball these days is that they’re going to let you down.

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My personal expectation for next season is to attend two games (was great to attend a game this year, first in MANY years) and bring ten friends! SS Assembly Hall needs to be filled to give these guys some superb 6th man help.

I’m looking forward to continued improvement next year, exciting finishes, and trips to tourneys!!

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One thing I've learned over the years is that it's practically impossible to predict how freshmen will perform.  Obviously, we all have high hopes (with good reason) for what the new class can do, but at this point it's a guessing game.

There are some wildcards, though:

- How good will Race Thompson be with an entire year of training and practice in the system.  While he shouldn't have top-30 expectations, he could be much more prepared to contribute early than the other newcomers.

- Roster changes.  Any defections? I have no idea, and hope there are none but beyond Morgan we won't be overly impacted by the loss of a single player.

- Added Juco player? Senior transfer? Nabbing an already committed player who de-commits after a coaching change in the next month?  All possibilites.

- Can we win the Romeo Sweepstakes?  He'd be a freshman, but looks to be as close to a can't miss/game changer as they come.  I think we have a good shot, but either way we'll know one way or the other in the next 4 weeks or so.

- Finally, a huge one: What can we expect from Deron Davis?  How ready will he be?  Can the staff change his game and raise him up a few notches?  If so, it could be huge to have him inside to help out Juwan AND everyone else on the court.

I expect to see Durham and Smith to make nice strides over the summer.  I hope to see the freshmen get on campus early and start working their tails off.  I hope to see Green and Davis show consistency and improvement.  I hope to see some nice additions to the roster, especially a certain young lad from the S.E. area of the state.

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I thought we were lacking any senior leadership this year. Maybe it should be expected with a new coach, and totally new system. The seniors were feeling their way through the changes and weren't at an advantage from a teaching standpoint to do much. Who should we expect to be the leader or leaders next year? The lack thereof this season was really a huge detriment.

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^^ Morgan.

I think we've seen the foundation for a very strong defensive team. No idea how next year's IU team will finish in the standings, impossible to predict at this point, but do think we'll see a fundamentally sound team.

We need shooters and improved play at the point. If Morgan comes back (I think he will), that's a big step, but we need shooting. 

Have lots of reason to believe Smith will be excellent next year, though.

Morgan, Smith and a healthy Davis would/will give us a strong front court.

Please work on free throws in the off-season.

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2 hours ago, hoosier10 said:

I really want to have a positive outlook on this team, but we are going to have a bunch of new guys that need to step up.  Don’t get me wrong, I think this team could be very solid, but there are a lot of question marks minus Juwan Morgan. Will Deron be quicker than a 35 year old Al Jefferson?  How much has Race developed during the year on the bench?  Is RP the PG we’ve been clamoring for or does Green remove his head from his sphincter?  Can the freshman hit jumpers because no one coming back can (outside of Green on rare occasions)?  Can McRoberts add offense to his game?  Do we add a grad transfer if we don’t land Romeo?  Will anyone transfer?

Based on who we have committed now I think next year we get into the tourney as a 6-8 seed and hopefully show signs of life on the offensive end.  As I write this prediction, I realize how difficult it is to be an IU fan.  What I would give for year in and year out consistency. Hopefully we’re headed in that direction, but I’m not comfortable after the way this season ended.

 

Hard to really know what the expectations should be next year until we know the roster for sure.

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Finished 76th in Kenpom. Beat ND, PSU, MD ranked better than us. Lost to ISU, FW, WI, dUI, Rutgers ranked worse than us. 3 wins vs. 5 losses that should have went the other way rankings-wise based on current rankings (not at the time game was played). If it would have played out this way instead, we'd be 18-13 and playing Turdue tonight (flipping the WI and dUI losses to wins wouldn't have changed our B1G finish/seed and beating Rutgers we'd obviously still be alive in the BTT). 

So for the most part we beat who we should beat and lost to who we should lose to. WI is ranked 77th so really if you remove them from the equation then it is 3 wins vs 4 losses for a 17-14 finish only one game different than the actual 16-15 finish. 

As others have said, so many unknowns going into next year:

  • Morgan's return?
  • How does Davis look/play after his injury?
  • How good are the new players (including Race)? How well do they make up for the players lost?
  • Do we get Romeo and/or anyone else?
  • Offseason improvements, development and experience in Archie's system

I don't really have any expectations for next season yet other than it better be better than this year. Archie will have more of his own guys so that (valid IMO) excuse is diminished (and the returning players will have 1 year of experience under his system to counter however many years they had in FCTC's). The rest of my expectations will be developed over time based on the above questions being answered.

Edited by cybergates
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I expect fans to set the bar way to high for many to deem the season a success. We are dreaming of having a fab 5 recruiting class that comes in and plays at a high level from day 1.

Very few freshmen come in and adjust to the college game instantly. While I think we have a very good base/core for 2 or 3 years from now I am not banking on next season being a break out year. We for sure are losing a pair of guards that at times drove everyone nuts but did have a ton of experience, a big man that came on as the year progressed, a guard/forward that many think was a strong leader in the locker room and the hope that priller would contribute. Very few freshmen will step in and fill that hole/improve the team.

Add to that what will Davis be and will Morgan be back. 

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Without Juwan Morgan, we will not be very good.

Without at least 2 of the freshmen being impact players, we will not be very good.  In fact, I think one of them has to have a freshman Calbert Cheaney type impact (17 pppg, 4.5 rpg).

Without significant improvement from at least two of Davis, Smith, Green, or Durham, we will not be very good.

If McRoberts is starting, we will not be very good.

Without at least 2 consistent outside threats, we will not be very good.

In other words, a whole lot has to go right before we can expect next season to be much better than the last two.

 

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7 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

Without Juwan Morgan, we will not be very good.

Without at least 2 of the freshmen being impact players, we will not be very good.  In fact, I think one of them has to have a freshman Calbert Cheaney type impact (17 pppg, 4.5 rpg).

Without significant improvement from at least two of Davis, Smith, Green, or Durham, we will not be very good.

If McRoberts is starting, we will not be very good.

Without at least 2 consistent outside threats, we will not be very good.

In other words, a whole lot has to go right before we can expect next season to be much better than the last two.

 

And that pretty much sums it up.

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Hard to set expectations without knowing two huge questions:

1) Does Morgan comes back?

2) Does Langford sign with IU?

If those two things happen, we'll have two of the best ten players in the league and expectations should be fairly high. If neither happens, even a repeat 9-9 season may be wishful thinking.

Edited by Shooter
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8 minutes ago, Shooter said:

Hard to set expectations without knowing two huge questions:

1) Does Morgan comes back?

2) Does Langford sign with IU?

If those two things happen, we'll have two of the best ten players in the league and expectations should be fairly high. If neither happens, even a repeat 9-9 season may be wishful thinking.

I have a hard time seeing a winning conference record without either of those two.  On the other hand, we could be ranked if both of them are in Bloomington next year.  Crazy how big of a swing it would be. 

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5 hours ago, 5fouls said:

Without Juwan Morgan, we will not be very good.

Without at least 2 of the freshmen being impact players, we will not be very good.  In fact, I think one of them has to have a freshman Calbert Cheaney type impact (17 pppg, 4.5 rpg).

Without significant improvement from at least two of Davis, Smith, Green, or Durham, we will not be very good.

If McRoberts is starting, we will not be very good.

Without at least 2 consistent outside threats, we will not be very good.

In other words, a whole lot has to go right before we can expect next season to be much better than the last two.

 

The only thing I disagree with, would be the comment about McRoberts, he is a player just needs some offense to go with his game. But otherwise, we will not be very good.

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Gotta take a stab at this. From a Plus Minus aspect what were our real weaknesses amongst the many? Lack of outside shooting, lack of a solid PG and lack of size. Supposedly, a couple of the incoming freshman have some shooting skills, this may be a plus as you can't be much worse than we were this year. PG, I think this is the real wildcard!! Without a solid PG does Romeo look elsewhere? Possibly DG and/or AD develop, possibly Phinisee will be better than his ranking? Personally, I see this as a wash and we will still be frustrated with PG play! %^%@$^@%!! Hopefully, I'm wrong! GOIU! Lack of size? Much as we wanted DD to be all BIG this year, that wasn't close to the truth and after an achilles injury he may be less mobile than he was before:? Does Race step in, does Moore step in, does Jake step in? I'm hopeful that this is at least a wash. I hate to say it but next year we may be wishing Freddie had another year of eligibility left! On the true plus side, we will have a team much more in tune with what CAM is preaching and I see this as a BIG plus, but still, as Fouls stated so eloquently, we will not be very good!

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Not sure why we keep forgetting Davis. Look at the Duke game when he was on court not in foul trouble. If he follows Morgan lead and works his tail off this summer...Davis/Morgan down low and IF we get Romeo being either doubled or concentrated on?? All of sudden we have 3 options on offense not to mention upgraded PG play with Green getting another year of experience and Phinisee coming in? 

I'm not saying top 15 team or anything but just having Morgan, Davis, and Romeo gives me some hope.

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As Seeking said, a lot relies on Davis. My concern is how he will mesh with the team and be on Defense. Will he clog up the middle and impact Morgan? Our D wasn't to good with him. That will have to improve. 

Looking at who we need to replace-

McSwain will be missed but Davis, Race and Jake will more than offset him. 

Have to believe a freshman Phinisee will be an upgrade to Newkirk. I think he will be a key to how well we do. 

The biggest factor next year, IMO will be can Green, Damezi, Hunter and Smith provide the Defense and shooting we will need. This is where Romeo would be such a perfect fit. I'm assuming the shooting will be much better. 

I'm worried about the freshman picking up the defense and avoiding fouls. This is where we will miss RoJo. 

Our offense should be better with a true PG and more weapons but how long will it take for the D to gel? 

Lastly will Clifton work his way into the lineup or move on to greener pastures? 

 

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