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Next Season’s Expectations


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51 minutes ago, Reacher said:

Have to believe a freshman Phinisee will be an upgrade to Newkirk. I think he will be a key to how well we do. 

 

Many agree with this sentiment but other than the burger boys(and even they are a gamble sometimes), nobody really knows how a freshman will perform. Especially in their first year. I truly believe he will be our go to guy eventually, but IMO, he won’t be getting the minutes some are expecting. I hope he does but it’s very likely Al gets more minutes. 

And speaking of Al, can the guy learn how to stay in his feet? Haha. I haven’t seen anybody fall that much since Thomas Bryant. 

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The first part of the season was rough...really rough.

After the loss to Wisconsin- I think we basically played like a bubble team- petty much what I expected heading into the season.  However, I didn't expect Juwan to lead us- thought it'd come from RoJo.  The loss to Rutgers was very disappointing- but Purdue almost lost to them, MSU almost lost to Wisconsin, and Ohio State lost to Penn State.  Disappointing  showings in conference tourneys seem to be pretty common.  

Let's assume we keep Juwan- and don't get Romeo- I think we'll win 11-12 wins in the conference.  We'll benefit from having a dependable go-to guy like Juwan and and we'll be used to playing defense.  The perimeter scoring and offense in general will be a concern.  I like Phinisee- but the expectations are probably too high.  My hope is that a guy like Juwan gives us enough of an identity that others won't be asked to do too much.  And by having that stability, guys will be able to make open shots (and free throws), simple passes, and play defense.  

Couple other thoughts...

I'd really like to get a guard senior transfer- whether or not we get Romeo.  Point guard, off guard that can shoot, combo guard, whatever.  I think we could use one more experienced guy.

I really don't know the situation with Davis.  We actually played a lot better without him.

It'll also be interesting going forward because there probably isn't enough minutes for our forwards.  We know Juwan will get a ton of minutes.  Smith will likely get a lot too.  With those guys, how will Archie divide Hunter, Race, Demezi, McRobbert's, and Moore's minutes?  

 

 

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17 hours ago, Seeking6 said:

Not sure why we keep forgetting Davis. Look at the Duke game when he was on court not in foul trouble. If he follows Morgan lead and works his tail off this summer...Davis/Morgan down low and IF we get Romeo being either doubled or concentrated on?? All of sudden we have 3 options on offense not to mention upgraded PG play with Green getting another year of experience and Phinisee coming in? 

I'm not saying top 15 team or anything but just having Morgan, Davis, and Romeo gives me some hope.

see, i am usually not Mr. Optimistic, but i DO think that if we have Morgan, Davis, and Romeo we should expect to be a top 15 team.  why not?

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On 3/2/2018 at 8:45 AM, Hoosierhoopster said:

^^ Morgan.

I think we've seen the foundation for a very strong defensive team. No idea how next year's IU team will finish in the standings, impossible to predict at this point, but do think we'll see a fundamentally sound team.

We need shooters and improved play at the point. If Morgan comes back (I think he will), that's a big step, but we need shooting. 

Have lots of reason to believe Smith will be excellent next year, though.

Morgan, Smith and a healthy Davis would/will give us a strong front court.

Please work on free throws in the off-season.

Totally agree. Those three in the front court, plus McRoberts at the three should make us a really tough team. 

 

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With Morgan and Romeo = 1-4 seed in tourney

With Morgan OR Romeo = 5-8 seed in tourney

Without Morgan and Romeo = 9-12 seed in tourney

That's a way too early rough estimate, but even without either one of those guys, we still have some decent potential.  All returning guys will have 1.5 years in Miller's system by the time next fall starts.  Now that he's had these guys for a season, he knows what they need to work on and I'm sure he'll hammer home what each player needs to do in the offseason.

I think without Morgan or Romeo, the sum of our parts is a bubble team.  Miller needs to get the whole to play greater than the sum of its parts to get them into the tourney.  No more missed tournaments starting next year.

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If we assume Morgan comes back and Romeo goes elsewhere, I think the tournament is a reasonable expectation. 

Green/Al/RP - this seems like a lock to be an upgrade, perhaps majorly. 

Hunter/Green - probably a downgrade

McRoberts - I'd love to think he continues getting better on offense. He showed flashes numerous times on that end, just bottle it for 6-8 PPG and he will be a huge asset 

Smith - He is going to be a stud. He showed a ton of flash this year and an off-season in the weight room is going to do him wonders. Fully expect him to compete for all conference. 

Morgan - he will be 1st Team All-B1G 

 

Still have Davis, the guys who don't start above, Anderson and maybe a grad transfer off the bench. Other than losing Johnson I really think we are better all over the court next year even without Romeo. 

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  • One thing I expect is a better preconference record next year.  This will help our tourney hopes.  This is my expectation no matter the situation with Juwan and Romeo.  I think Race will give us a little more that Smith this year because of his year in the program.  I also think Smith will take a nice step forward.  As I posted in another thread, I think that Green is a huge key in our success.  If he plays consistently the way he did for a few games there, I think we are a very dangerous team.  This is where we see how good Archie is, if he is who we think he is, than there will be a decent jump for the returning players.
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I think we are going to have some growing pains again at the beginning of the year, but my hope is that we will have less setbacks as the season progresses (IL, Wisc, Rutgers).  Then by the end of the year RP will be our full time PG and this terrible guard play will be in the past.

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There are so many questions about the roster.  I’d say we have some players that need to decide what they want to do.  At the top of my list would be Devonte Green.  I was very enamored with him at the start of the year, and I still like his broad skill set.  He can pressure the ball on D and play hard.  He can hit the open J.  He can penetrate.  He can see the floor very, very well.  He can be a huge asset, but his playground style of play is like a stubborn rash that won’t go away.  He had a very nice stretch at around the 2/3 point in the season, where he protected the ball and had a high number of assists, where he showed his nice floor vision.  

But then he reverted to his playground style and it fell apart.  What I see is a kid who gets baited if you extend pressure on him, and he becomes a reckless player acting as if he’s on an asphalt court playing with a bunch of wannabes.  

He has every skill you want.  If he takes it every possession at a time, keeps his composure and concentrates play by play, this is a kid who can be a high level player.   But if he has to deal with extended pressure and he reacts by playing reckless street ball, I want no part of him.  

I don’t think it’s any coincidence at all, that when Green is calm and collected, our offense flowed infinitely better.  He has the ability to provide ball movement with the pass, and, boom, we looked like a winning team.  When a guy like Newkirk was up top, our ball movement collapsed and we weren’t nearly as good in the half court.  

If Green wants to be the guy that fits Archie’s style, I couldn’t be happier. If he has doubts, I think he should leave.  It’d be a shame because we have invested two years in him, but we can’t have him go rogue every time he sees pressure.  Every possession is too important now, and we need him to be consistent and reliable.  If I’m Archie, I’d have a heart to heart with Green and get a commitment from him.  Then, he should spend his off season working against extended pressure.  

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Here is what I see.  

Phinesse/Al/Green > Newkirk/Al/Green

Romeo > Rojo

Smith/Hunter/Anderson/McBob > Mcbob/Smith/Hartman

Morgan/Thompson/Smith/Forrester > Morgan/McSwain/Smith/Hartman

Davis/Forrester/ 5th year big > Injured Davis

With Romeo we will be better at every position than we were this year. Am I putting a lot of faith in our freshman, yes, but I also see a large jump from this years freshman, and maybe even this years sophomores,depending on if Green returns and how Davis progresses.  

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13 minutes ago, bstall76 said:

Here is what I see.  

Phinesse/Al/Green > Newkirk/Al/Green

Romeo > Rojo

Smith/Hunter/Anderson/McBob > Mcbob/Smith/Hartman

Morgan/Thompson/Smith/Forrester > Morgan/McSwain/Smith/Hartman

Davis/Forrester/ 5th year big > Injured Davis

With Romeo we will be better at every position than we were this year. Am I putting a lot of faith in our freshman, yes, but I also see a large jump from this years freshman, and maybe even this years sophomores,depending on if Green returns and how Davis progresses.  

Interesting breakdown.

Romeo may be the real deal, but he hasn't played one college game yet, so I am not ready to consecrate him. He may be as good as Rojo was offensively, hopefully more consistent. However, Rob was an excellent defender, and I think that it will take Romeo some time both to learn CAM's system as well as to gain the strength to take the pounding of B1G basketball 

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