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Strength of B1G next year?


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It's really not that debatable, the B1G was down this year - only 4 teams made it to the NCAA's. Of those top 4 teams:

1. MSU is losing Jackson and Bridges. They have a good class coming in next year, but I don't think they'll be as good as this year. And who knows if any of their off the court issues will come back to haunt them.
2. OSU is losing Tate, Wlliams, Dakich and possibly Bates-Diop.
3. PU is out Matias, V. Edwards, Haas, Thompson. 
4. UM has no major departures anticipated other than Abdul-Rahkman

Other than UM I don't see any of the teams being significantly better next year than they were this year.

The rest of the league is catching up, but to what degree? I have to think 5.Nebraska, 6.IU 7.Penn St. 8. Maryland and 9. Wisconsin will all be better and much more competitive. I can see next year playing out the opposite of this year. No clear national top 10 teams, but a very competitive 8 teams that will hover around 20-50ish in their national rankings.

Anybody have any thoughts? (my answers in parentheses)

Who has potential to be a national top 10 team? (UM, MSU?)
What teams do you think will take a major jump? (IU w/ Romeo, Maryland, Wisconsin, IL?)
What teams do you think will fall? (Purdue and OSU if they lose Bates-Diop)
How many teams make the dance next year? (6)
Any teams I didn't mention worth talking about?

 

 

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I think the potential big jump teams will be IU (assuming Langford), Maryland (if Fernando stays and a healthy Jackson) and Penn State (if Carr, Stephens and Watkins all stay). MSU could actually end up being better. Obviously Bridges and Jackson are great players, but them leaving might allow the backcourt of Winston and Langford to shine and for more defined roles for the other guys. 

Super early obviously, but those are some early thoughts. I think Maryland will be really dangerous if everyone comes back. Covan and Huerter are legit, and they probably would have been a tourney team if Justin Jackson didn't get heard. 

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Good questions. I agree with most of what you said TDH. I see a bit of a rotation among the top teams and hope that IU can take advantage of that and then maintain.

I'm not so sold on WI and IL taking a major jump. Nationally, I think the conference will still be a down - perhaps comparable to this year.

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27 minutes ago, slojoe said:

PSU has everybody back next year.  I'm not sure whether any of their players will enter the draft, but they should be very good next year.

I thought the same thing, but then thought ‘well, they are Penn st.’  Haha. 

I just have a hard time predicting them to finish above 6th. 

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1 minute ago, tdhoosier said:

I thought the same thing, but then thought ‘well, they are Penn st.’  Haha. 

I just have a hard time predicting them to finish above 6th. 

While they don't have the talent of MSU, IU and some others, they do have experience. Combined with losses from OSU, PU, I could seem them challenging for fourth. 

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58 minutes ago, Reacher said:

While they don't have the talent of MSU, IU and some others, they do have experience. Combined with losses from OSU, PU, I could seem them challenging for fourth. 

I would say they have the talent, just maybe not the depth. Carr is as good as any guard in the conference, Stephens is one of the top forwards and Watkins, when not in foul trouble or disappearing, is a legit big. Those three might be as good as any trio in the conference next season. 

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53 minutes ago, Reacher said:

While they don't have the talent of MSU, IU and some others, they do have experience. Combined with losses from OSU, PU, I could seem them challenging for fourth. 

What I meant by that is...I'm not sure Penn St. has overachieved since the turn of the century. Last year might be the closest example to at least meeting higher expectations....and they still didn't make the tournament.  There have been times in the last 18 years where, on paper, it looks like they might be good and then they come out and play......well....like a Penn State team. 

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Could be more early entrants out of the Big Ten than in years past.  Jackson and Bridges are gone for sure, and I think Bates-Diop will go.  All three are being projected in the first round.  Carr and Wagner are also being projected to be drafted, so I bet they decide to leave as well.  Then you have other borderline guys like Juwan who may decide to go, but I think that’s less likely.

I would bet that the preseason favorite next year will be UM, but I don’t think the conference will be very good again.  Like the OP said, maybe fewer teams at the top, but deeper throughout the conference.  IU should have another opportunity to compete at the top of the conference, let’s hope they can break through.

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6 hours ago, BGleas said:

Super early obviously, but those are some early thoughts. I think Maryland will be really dangerous if everyone comes back. Covan and Huerter are legit, and they probably would have been a tourney team if Justin Jackson didn't get heard. 

What did Jackson say?  :coffee:

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2 hours ago, CauseThatsMyDJ said:

Michigan should be tops in the conference. MSU is always there (unless Izzo is done). 

Purdue will take a big step back. 

Our situation is very fluid. If we have both Morgan and Romeo we should be really good. If we have neither, we’ll have more of this year. 

How big do you anticipate for Purdue?

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Stole this from the Illini Board, some of it has players turning pro assumptions:

MICHIGAN ST. 

Losing: 

Miles Bridges (So G/F) 17.1 ppg 6.8 rpg 2.8 apg 

Jaren Jackson Jr. (Fr F) 11.4 ppg 5.8 rpg 1.2apg 

'Tum Tum' Nairn (Sr G) 2.0 ppg 1.0 rpg 3.2 apg 

Gavin Schilling (Sr F) 3.3 ppg 3.7 rpg 0.4 apg

Adding: 

Marcus Bingham Jr. 4* PF 

Foster Loyer 4* PG 

Gabe Brown 4* SF 

Aaron Henry 3* SF 

Thomas Kithier 3* PF

PURDUE 

Losing: 

Isaac Haas (Sr C) 14.8 ppg 5.9 rpg 0.8 apg 

Vincent Edwards (Sr F) 14.9 ppg 7.8 rpg 3.0 apg 

Dakota Mathias (Sr G) 11.9 ppg 3.9 rpg 4.3 apg 

PJ Thompson (Sr G) 7.5 ppg 1.8 rpg 1.8 apg

Adding: 

Trevion Williams 3* C 

Eric Hunter 3* SG 

Emmanuel Dowuona 3* C

OHIO ST 

Losing: 

Jae'Sean Tate (Sr F) 12.6 ppg 6.2 rpg 2.9 apg 

Kam Williams (Sr G) 7.9 ppg 2.0 rpg 0.6 apg 

Keita Bates-Diop (Jr F) 19.0 ppg 8.7 rpg 1.6 apg

Adding: 

Luther Muhammad 4* SG 

Jaedon LeDee 4* PF 

Duane Washington 3* G 

Justin Ahrens 3* SF

MICHIGAN 

Losing: 

Jaaron Simmons (Gr G) 1.5 ppg 0.7 rpg 1.3 apg 

Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman (Sr G) 11.8 ppg 3.8 rpg 3.3 apg 

Duncan Robinson (Sr G/F) 9.4 ppg 2.4 rpg 1.2 apg 

Moritz Wagner (Jr F) 14.6 ppg 7.3 rpg 0.7 apg

Adding: 

Brandon Johns 4* PF 

Ignas Brazdeikis 4* SF 

David DeJulius 3* PG 

Colin Castleton 3* PF 

Adrien Nunez 3* SG

NEBRASKA 

Losing: 

Duby Okeke (Sr C) 0.8 ppg 1.8 rpg 0.1 apg 

Malcolm Laws (Sr G) 0.3 ppg 0 rpg 0 apg 

Evan Taylor (Sr G) 6.6 ppg 3.4 rpg 2.3 apg 

Anton Gill (Sr G) 8.1 ppg 1.8 rpg 1.2 apg

Adding: 

Xavier Johnson 3* G 

Brady Heiman 3* C

PENN STATE 

Losing: 

Tony Carr (So G) 19.6 ppg 4.6 rpg 4.9 apg 

Shep Garner (Sr G) 10.3 ppg 2.0 rpg 1.3 apg 

Julian Moore (Gr F) 1.7 ppg 1.6 rpg 0.3 apg

Adding: 

Myles Dread 3* SG 

Rasir Bulton 3* PG 

Tolu Jacobs Yaffa 3* C 

Danii Kasatkin NR PG

INDIANA 

Losing: 

Josh Newkirk (Sr G) 7.1 ppg 2.2 rpg 2.7 apg 

Robert Johnson (Sr G) 14.0 ppg 4.6 rpg 2.6 apg 

Freddy McSwain Jr (Sr F) 4.1 ppg 4.4 rpg 0.5 apg 

Collin Hartman (Gr F) 4.5 ppg 2.9 rpg 1.1 apg 

Tim Priller (Sr F) 0.3 ppg 0.5 rpg 0 apg

Adding: 

Jerome Hunter 4* PF 

Damezi Anderson 4* SF 

Robert Phinisee 4* PG 

Jake Forrester 3* PF 

Race Thompson 4* F (redshirt for '17-'18 season)

MARYLAND 

Losing: 

Michal Cekovsky (Sr C) 6.8 ppg 3.2 rpg 0.4 apg 

Jared Nickens (Sr G/F) 5.3 ppg 1.4 rpg 0.3 apg 

Sean Obi (Gr C) 1.5 ppg 2.1 rpg 0.1 apg

Gaining: 

Jalen Smith 5* PF 

Aaron Wiggins 4* SF 

Eric Alaya 4* G

WISCONSIN 

Losing: 

Aaron Moesch (Sr F) 1.2 ppg 0.6 rpg 0.3 apg

Adding: 

Taylor Currie 3* PF 

Joe Hedstrom 3* C

NORTHWESTERN 

Losing: 

Scottie Lindsey (Sr G/F) 14.3 ppg 3.7 rpg 1.8 apg 

Bryant McIntosh (Sr G) 12.1 ppg 2.5 rpg 5.2 apg 

Gavin Skelly (Sr F) 6.4 ppg 4.2 rpg 1.0 apg

Adding: 

Pete Nance 4* PF 

Miller Kopp 4* SF 

Jordan Lathon 4* G 

Ryan Young 3* PF

MINNESOTA 

Losing: 

Nate Mason (Sr G) 16.8 ppg 3.7 rpg 4.3 apg 

Gaston Diedhiou (Sr F) 1.8 ppg 1.3 rpg 0.3 apg 

Davonte Fitzgerald (Sr F) 3.7 ppg 2.5 rpg 0.3 apg 

Bakary Konante (Sr C) 1.7 ppg 3.5 rpg 0.3 apg

Adding: 

Daniel Oturu 4* C 

Jarvis Omersa 3* PF 

Gabe Kalscheur 3* SG

IOWA 

Losing: 

Charlie Rose (Sr F) 0.9 ppg 0.4 rpg 0.3 apg (only played 7 games) 

Dom Uhl (Sr F) 0.3 ppg 1.1 rpg 0.4 apg

Adding: 

Joe Wieskamp 4* SG 

CJ Fredrick 3* SG

ILLINOIS 

Losing: 

Mark Alstork (Gr G) 6.3 ppg 3.7 rpg 2.0 apg 

Mark Smith (Fr G) 5.8 ppg 1.4 rpg 1.4 apg

Leron Black (Jr F) 9.5 ppg 6.7 rpg 0.5 apg

Adding: 

Ayo Dosumnu 5* G 

Alan Griffin NR SG 

Samba Kane NR PF

RUTGERS 

Losing: 

Deshawn Freeman (Sr F) 11.2 ppg 7.5 rpg 0.9 apg 

Mike Williams (Sr G) 8.2 ppg 3.8 rpg 0.9 apg 

Jake Dadika (Sr G) 0.7 ppg 0.3 rpg 0.2 apg 

Candido Sa (Sr F) 2.2 ppg 3.4 rpg 0.1 apg

Adding: 

Montez Mathis 4* SG 

Shaq Carter 3* PF 

Ronald Harper NR SG

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8 hours ago, Stlboiler23 said:

How big do you anticipate for Purdue?

Curious where you see Purdue at next season? You know the team better than 99% of the people on here, and I may be in the minority but I appreciate your contributions to this board. 

I think they'll not be as good and they'll have a 'moderate fall'....not huge. Still a tournament team (7-8 seed). I actually think you'll be better off with Haarms getting Haas's minutes, but the loss of the other's leadership and depth will hurt.  Not having the weapons around him, do you think Carsen Edwards' production will drop? 

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25 minutes ago, IUaic said:

MICHIGAN 

Losing: 

Jaaron Simmons (Gr G) 1.5 ppg 0.7 rpg 1.3 apg 

Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman (Sr G) 11.8 ppg 3.8 rpg 3.3 apg 

Duncan Robinson (Sr G/F) 9.4 ppg 2.4 rpg 1.2 apg 

Moritz Wagner (Jr F) 14.6 ppg 7.3 rpg 0.7 apg

Adding: 

Brandon Johns 4* PF 

Ignas Brazdeikis 4* SF 

David DeJulius 3* PG 

Colin Castleton 3* PF 

Adrien Nunez 3* SG

 

Mo Wagner is projected late in the second round......I wonder if he'll go. If he does, that will hurt UM a lot and muddy up the field even more. 

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8 hours ago, Stlboiler23 said:

How big do you anticipate for Purdue?

Obviously we won't know until all recruiting, transferring, and early entrant decisions are complete throughout the B1G, but 50 points is a lot to make up by a team that is not considered an annually reloading team. They seem to build a solid team every 3 to 4 years that has a 2 year window for above average success (think Baby Boilers and last year/this year).

Ironically, it seems both groups could wind up having their best deep run opportunity derailed by critical injuries (Hummel and Haas).

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1 hour ago, IUaic said:

Stole this from the Illini Board, some of it has players turning pro assumptions:

MICHIGAN ST. 

Losing: 

Miles Bridges (So G/F) 17.1 ppg 6.8 rpg 2.8 apg 

Jaren Jackson Jr. (Fr F) 11.4 ppg 5.8 rpg 1.2apg 

'Tum Tum' Nairn (Sr G) 2.0 ppg 1.0 rpg 3.2 apg 

Gavin Schilling (Sr F) 3.3 ppg 3.7 rpg 0.4 apg

Adding: 

Marcus Bingham Jr. 4* PF 

Foster Loyer 4* PG 

Gabe Brown 4* SF 

Aaron Henry 3* SF 

Thomas Kithier 3* PF

PURDUE 

Losing: 

Isaac Haas (Sr C) 14.8 ppg 5.9 rpg 0.8 apg 

Vincent Edwards (Sr F) 14.9 ppg 7.8 rpg 3.0 apg 

Dakota Mathias (Sr G) 11.9 ppg 3.9 rpg 4.3 apg 

PJ Thompson (Sr G) 7.5 ppg 1.8 rpg 1.8 apg

Adding: 

Trevion Williams 3* C 

Eric Hunter 3* SG 

Emmanuel Dowuona 3* C

OHIO ST 

Losing: 

Jae'Sean Tate (Sr F) 12.6 ppg 6.2 rpg 2.9 apg 

Kam Williams (Sr G) 7.9 ppg 2.0 rpg 0.6 apg 

Keita Bates-Diop (Jr F) 19.0 ppg 8.7 rpg 1.6 apg

Adding: 

Luther Muhammad 4* SG 

Jaedon LeDee 4* PF 

Duane Washington 3* G 

Justin Ahrens 3* SF

MICHIGAN 

Losing: 

Jaaron Simmons (Gr G) 1.5 ppg 0.7 rpg 1.3 apg 

Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman (Sr G) 11.8 ppg 3.8 rpg 3.3 apg 

Duncan Robinson (Sr G/F) 9.4 ppg 2.4 rpg 1.2 apg 

Moritz Wagner (Jr F) 14.6 ppg 7.3 rpg 0.7 apg

Adding: 

Brandon Johns 4* PF 

Ignas Brazdeikis 4* SF 

David DeJulius 3* PG 

Colin Castleton 3* PF 

Adrien Nunez 3* SG

NEBRASKA 

Losing: 

Duby Okeke (Sr C) 0.8 ppg 1.8 rpg 0.1 apg 

Malcolm Laws (Sr G) 0.3 ppg 0 rpg 0 apg 

Evan Taylor (Sr G) 6.6 ppg 3.4 rpg 2.3 apg 

Anton Gill (Sr G) 8.1 ppg 1.8 rpg 1.2 apg

Adding: 

Xavier Johnson 3* G 

Brady Heiman 3* C

PENN STATE 

Losing: 

Tony Carr (So G) 19.6 ppg 4.6 rpg 4.9 apg 

Shep Garner (Sr G) 10.3 ppg 2.0 rpg 1.3 apg 

Julian Moore (Gr F) 1.7 ppg 1.6 rpg 0.3 apg

Adding: 

Myles Dread 3* SG 

Rasir Bulton 3* PG 

Tolu Jacobs Yaffa 3* C 

Danii Kasatkin NR PG

INDIANA 

Losing: 

Josh Newkirk (Sr G) 7.1 ppg 2.2 rpg 2.7 apg 

Robert Johnson (Sr G) 14.0 ppg 4.6 rpg 2.6 apg 

Freddy McSwain Jr (Sr F) 4.1 ppg 4.4 rpg 0.5 apg 

Collin Hartman (Gr F) 4.5 ppg 2.9 rpg 1.1 apg 

Tim Priller (Sr F) 0.3 ppg 0.5 rpg 0 apg

Adding: 

Jerome Hunter 4* PF 

Damezi Anderson 4* SF 

Robert Phinisee 4* PG 

Jake Forrester 3* PF 

Race Thompson 4* F (redshirt for '17-'18 season)

MARYLAND 

Losing: 

Michal Cekovsky (Sr C) 6.8 ppg 3.2 rpg 0.4 apg 

Jared Nickens (Sr G/F) 5.3 ppg 1.4 rpg 0.3 apg 

Sean Obi (Gr C) 1.5 ppg 2.1 rpg 0.1 apg

Gaining: 

Jalen Smith 5* PF 

Aaron Wiggins 4* SF 

Eric Alaya 4* G

WISCONSIN 

Losing: 

Aaron Moesch (Sr F) 1.2 ppg 0.6 rpg 0.3 apg

Adding: 

Taylor Currie 3* PF 

Joe Hedstrom 3* C

NORTHWESTERN 

Losing: 

Scottie Lindsey (Sr G/F) 14.3 ppg 3.7 rpg 1.8 apg 

Bryant McIntosh (Sr G) 12.1 ppg 2.5 rpg 5.2 apg 

Gavin Skelly (Sr F) 6.4 ppg 4.2 rpg 1.0 apg

Adding: 

Pete Nance 4* PF 

Miller Kopp 4* SF 

Jordan Lathon 4* G 

Ryan Young 3* PF

MINNESOTA 

Losing: 

Nate Mason (Sr G) 16.8 ppg 3.7 rpg 4.3 apg 

Gaston Diedhiou (Sr F) 1.8 ppg 1.3 rpg 0.3 apg 

Davonte Fitzgerald (Sr F) 3.7 ppg 2.5 rpg 0.3 apg 

Bakary Konante (Sr C) 1.7 ppg 3.5 rpg 0.3 apg

Adding: 

Daniel Oturu 4* C 

Jarvis Omersa 3* PF 

Gabe Kalscheur 3* SG

IOWA 

Losing: 

Charlie Rose (Sr F) 0.9 ppg 0.4 rpg 0.3 apg (only played 7 games) 

Dom Uhl (Sr F) 0.3 ppg 1.1 rpg 0.4 apg

Adding: 

Joe Wieskamp 4* SG 

CJ Fredrick 3* SG

ILLINOIS 

Losing: 

Mark Alstork (Gr G) 6.3 ppg 3.7 rpg 2.0 apg 

Mark Smith (Fr G) 5.8 ppg 1.4 rpg 1.4 apg

Leron Black (Jr F) 9.5 ppg 6.7 rpg 0.5 apg

Adding: 

Ayo Dosumnu 5* G 

Alan Griffin NR SG 

Samba Kane NR PF

RUTGERS 

Losing: 

Deshawn Freeman (Sr F) 11.2 ppg 7.5 rpg 0.9 apg 

Mike Williams (Sr G) 8.2 ppg 3.8 rpg 0.9 apg 

Jake Dadika (Sr G) 0.7 ppg 0.3 rpg 0.2 apg 

Candido Sa (Sr F) 2.2 ppg 3.4 rpg 0.1 apg

Adding: 

Montez Mathis 4* SG 

Shaq Carter 3* PF 

Ronald Harper NR SG

Wisconsin will also be losing Happ

If that is all Nebraska loses from this year's team, they should be good next year.

Interesting that, conference wide, only one 5 star is coming--to Maryland. Obviously, Romeo would change that, but I find it interesting that the B1G is not viewed as a destination conference for any more 5 stars than that.

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3 minutes ago, Jerry Lundergaard said:

Wisconsin will also be losing Happ

If that is all Nebraska loses from this year's team, they should be good next year.

Interesting that, conference wide, only one 5 star is coming--to Maryland. Obviously, Romeo would change that, but I find it interesting that the B1G is not viewed as a destination conference for any more 5 stars than that.

The Illini have a 5 star coming in as well. Still not very many even with Romeo though. 

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3 minutes ago, Jerry Lundergaard said:

My mistake. I thought he was a Senior this year. He's been there forever, it seems like

haha. I thought you were crazy thinking a dude who doesn't shoot outside of 3 feet is going to declare early. I did look up an article that said he was going to the combine though....as he should. 

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37 minutes ago, Jerry Lundergaard said:

Wisconsin will also be losing Happ

If that is all Nebraska loses from this year's team, they should be good next year.

Interesting that, conference wide, only one 5 star is coming--to Maryland. Obviously, Romeo would change that, but I find it interesting that the B1G is not viewed as a destination conference for any more 5 stars than that.

I can't see Happ leaving early for the draft because he can't shoot outside 3 feet from the basket.

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