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Expectations for Next Year

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On ‎7‎/‎23‎/‎2018 at 4:43 PM, CauseThatsMyDJ said:

I would say that is pretty realistic expectation. I'd say 4 or 5 seed at the highest....worst case 7 seed...injuries and just a total break down is the only way I don't see us in the tourney...once there anything can happen.....still trying to figure out what people see in Illinois and Iowa...but who am I to judge.

Edited by dgambill

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^^ The difference between this chart and the above-quoted Vegas listing, for Nebraska, is pretty stark. Haven't checked if Vegas has updated that list but man that's a wide gulf.

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19 hours ago, Hoosierhoopster said:

^^ The difference between this chart and the above-quoted Vegas listing, for Nebraska, is pretty stark. Haven't checked if Vegas has updated that list but man that's a wide gulf.

Maybe because there has been more time since the NBA draft and Nebraska had some kids come back? Not sure. I think they are better than Vegas had them....that said vegas sets numbers to stimulate betting. Perhaps Nebraska doesn't elicit much action unless they were to get a deep discount? Definitely not a betting expert on that so don't quote me.

Interesting that the simulator has Ohio St. with a much lower avg seed....but much higher percentage chance to make the tournament than those ahead of them. Perhaps because of the name/history factor giving them a better shot over Nebraska and Iowa. Their at large % is almost as much as ours and they are several positions behind us. Just food for thought.

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On 5/4/2018 at 11:13 AM, btownqb said:

Updated with Duke, Marquette, and Jacksonsville added 

We have 25 games set in stone as of now, I'll keep a running record of these and update my expectations and predictions accordingly:

Home games only:

Nebraska, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Louisville, Jacksonville, Marquette- I expect 6 wins. 6-0

Away games only:

Maryland, Minnesota, Penn State, Duke- I'll say win @UM, PSU, @Mary lose @Duke 3-1

Neutral site:

Butler- I expect to win, this will be a good game though (especially if Tucker can play). 1-0

Home/Home:

Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Purdue, Rutgers

2 Wins- ILL, NW, Rutgers 

1 win- Home Purdue, MSU, Iowa, UM 10-4

 

Brings my total to 20-5. Games @Iowa, @Mary, both Purdue, MSU, UM, and Butler are the "swing games" the 50-50 games. I realize Iowa isn't as good as us but they're still at home and are pretty good at home. 

We played 30 regular season games last year... so we are going to add 5 more games. I would say 3 of those will be cupcakes, 1 solid team (maybe Mississippi State or Arkansas level of team) and one more top notch game. UNC, UK, AZ, UCLA type team. 

Our non-conf breakdown would be: 

4 cupcakes- 4 games 

Marquette and another team at this level.- 2 games

UL and Butler- 2 games 

Duke and another team at this level- 2 games 

Updated with the last 6 games we added.

Home games only:

Chicago St, Central Ark, UTA,  Montana St, UC Davis- 5-0

Away games only: 

Arkansas- (0-1)

 

This brings my grand total to 25-6. Swing games- Louisville, @Arkansas, Marquette (because I guess they are next to UCLA in prestige), Wisconsin, @Iowa, Purdue x2

We go 25-6 with a solid, but not great schedule... and depending on what we do in the BTT (oh god) we could honestly be a 3 seed. 

Again... that's my expectation to be 25-6... sitting here in August behind a computer lol 

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19 hours ago, btownqb said:

Updated with the last 6 games we added.

Home games only:

Chicago St, Central Ark, UTA,  Montana St, UC Davis- 5-0

Away games only: 

Arkansas- (0-1)

 

This brings my grand total to 25-6. Swing games- Louisville, @Arkansas, Marquette (because I guess they are next to UCLA in prestige), Wisconsin, @Iowa, Purdue x2

We go 25-6 with a solid, but not great schedule... and depending on what we do in the BTT (oh god) we could honestly be a 3 seed. 

Again... that's my expectation to be 25-6... sitting here in August behind a computer lol 

I am definitely not that optimistic, but I never am!  I hope you're right!  I do think this can be a very solid team though.

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Honestly, I've learned how futile it is to predict what the season will hold.  There's so many variables and it always depends on projected play of new players and improvement of returning players.  Also, so much depends on your opponents (are they better/worse than expected? what players are injured? etc.).

I know it's fun to project what will happen, but sometimes I think it just causes fellow fans to echo and believe what they read and then unrealistic expectations result.

All that said, I do feel that we have good reason to feel optimistic about the improvement and direction of the team.

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So much in CBB depends on the physical and mental development of young men year over year.  I agree -- the predictions are futile.  By the time they're in the NBA, the progression levels out and/or becomes more predictable.

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