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Way-Too-Early Preseason Top 25!


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I think it's way too early to have preseason polls. Preseason polls in general are rarely accurate, so that leads to the early season "upsets" when teams are still trying to figure it out. I do agree with you/them that IU is a fringe top 25 team expectations wise for me.

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20 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

How on earth is Louisville ranked ahead of IU?

It's amazing how potentially Louisville isn't going to skip a beat. They went 22-14 last year and may have another year or two in that range, but then Mack will land a few recruits and they'll be right back to competing. I know they could still have more sanctions, but I feel like that may not happen. I know his wife is from there, but why would Mack go to Louisville unless he was assured any future sanctions will be minimal at best.

It's utterly amazing...

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4 minutes ago, BGleas said:

It's amazing how potentially Louisville isn't going to skip a beat. They went 22-14 last year and may have another year or two in that range, but then Mack will land a few recruits and they'll be right back to competing. I know they could still have more sanctions, but I feel like that may not happen. I know his wife is from there, but why would Mack go to Louisville unless he was assured any future sanctions will be minimal at best.

It's utterly amazing...

They should have gotten shut down completely for 5 years.  The NCAA is a complete waste of time and money

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I can't find NBC's too early top 25 from 2017, but I found ESPN's. Wanted to compare their predictions vs how the teams finished (before the tournament):

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/19443560/arizona-rises-top-college-basketball-way-too-early-top-25

(Team/Too Early Ranking/Final Regular Season Ranking)

Arizona #1/15

Kansas #2/9

MSU #3/4

UK #4/NR

Duke #5/5

Wichita St #6/11

UNC #7/12

Florida #8/23

West Va #9/18

Louisville #10/NR

Villanova #11/2

Miami #12/24

USC #13/NR

UCLA #14/NR

Minnesota #15/NR

Cincinnati #16/8

Xavier #17/3

Seton Hall #18/NR

Gonzaga #19/6

Northwestern #20/NR

Notre Dame #21/NR

Saint Mary's #22/20

Butler #23/NR

Texas #24/NR

Missouri #25/NR

 

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56 minutes ago, CauseThatsMyDJ said:

I can't find NBC's too early top 25 from 2017, but I found ESPN's. Wanted to compare their predictions vs how the teams finished (before the tournament):

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/19443560/arizona-rises-top-college-basketball-way-too-early-top-25

(Team/Too Early Ranking/Final Regular Season Ranking)

Arizona #1/15

Kansas #2/9

MSU #3/4

UK #4/NR

Duke #5/5

Wichita St #6/11

UNC #7/12

Florida #8/23

West Va #9/18

Louisville #10/NR

Villanova #11/2

Miami #12/24

USC #13/NR

UCLA #14/NR

Minnesota #15/NR

Cincinnati #16/8

Xavier #17/3

Seton Hall #18/NR

Gonzaga #19/6

Northwestern #20/NR

Notre Dame #21/NR

Saint Mary's #22/20

Butler #23/NR

Texas #24/NR

Missouri #25/NR

 

That's an interesting assessment. To be fair, a few picks were dead on or close to it  -- Duke, MSU, St Mary's -- but the majority were way off or complete wiff jobs. UK, yes, a prime example of ridiculous over-ranking based on nothing. Minny still makes me laugh. 

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2 hours ago, CauseThatsMyDJ said:

I can't find NBC's too early top 25 from 2017, but I found ESPN's. Wanted to compare their predictions vs how the teams finished (before the tournament):

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/19443560/arizona-rises-top-college-basketball-way-too-early-top-25

(Team/Too Early Ranking/Final Regular Season Ranking)

Arizona #1/15

Kansas #2/9

MSU #3/4

UK #4/NR

Duke #5/5

Wichita St #6/11

UNC #7/12

Florida #8/23

West Va #9/18

Louisville #10/NR

Villanova #11/2

Miami #12/24

USC #13/NR

UCLA #14/NR

Minnesota #15/NR

Cincinnati #16/8

Xavier #17/3

Seton Hall #18/NR

Gonzaga #19/6

Northwestern #20/NR

Notre Dame #21/NR

Saint Mary's #22/20

Butler #23/NR

Texas #24/NR

Missouri #25/NR

 

I would venture to say, I could have done better than that.  we should have a thread and/or contest between posters next season.

 

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59 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

I would venture to say, I could have done better than that.  we should have a thread and/or contest between posters next season.

 

Well they'll give you one freebie each year with overblowing Kentucky's ranking...literally like clockwork the past 4 years or so. Maybe they'll catch on the one-and-done hasn't been working as hot in recent years

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16 hours ago, 5fouls said:

I would venture to say, I could have done better than that.  we should have a thread and/or contest between posters next season.

 

I would be game for that, but how would/could you set it up as far as points?

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1 hour ago, rico said:

I would be game for that, but how would/could you set it up as far as points?

I'll figure something out.  Certain # of points for an exactly correct pick, and then a sliding point scale for each position you are off either way.  Maybe lose points if your pick is especially bad.  

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1 minute ago, 5fouls said:

I'll figure something out.  Certain # of points for an exactly correct pick, and then a sliding point scale for each position you are off either way.  Maybe lose points if your pick is especially bad.  

I think it is a novel idea and I likey!!!!!

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17 hours ago, ArchieBall13 said:

Well they'll give you one freebie each year with overblowing Kentucky's ranking...literally like clockwork the past 4 years or so. Maybe they'll catch on the one-and-done hasn't been working as hot in recent years

Hey now they certainly would've been the national champions last year if they hadn't gotten Valentine'd in that game against UNC.  Just go look at Rupp Rafters.  They're probably still talking about it.

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19 hours ago, Hoosierhoopster said:

That's an interesting assessment. To be fair, a few picks were dead on or close to it  -- Duke, MSU, St Mary's -- but the majority were way off or complete wiff jobs. UK, yes, a prime example of ridiculous over-ranking based on nothing. Minny still makes me laugh. 

To be fair, between injuries to key players (ND, Missouri), suspension of key player (Minnesota), and turmoil within the program (Arizona, Louisville, and USC) it's hard to say whether whoever did the preseason ratings knew what they were talking about or not.

These things make for good discussion during the offseason but there are just too many unknowns and so much craziness that their only value is to keep boards like this one from dying of boredom during the summer 

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2 hours ago, 5fouls said:

I'll figure something out.  Certain # of points for an exactly correct pick, and then a sliding point scale for each position you are off either way.  Maybe lose points if your pick is especially bad.  

How about golf scoring it? One point for every slot missed? Exact hit scores zero. Low score wins.

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3 hours ago, Jerry Lundergaard said:

To be fair, between injuries to key players (ND, Missouri), suspension of key player (Minnesota), and turmoil within the program (Arizona, Louisville, and USC) it's hard to say whether whoever did the preseason ratings knew what they were talking about or not.

These things make for good discussion during the offseason but there are just too many unknowns and so much craziness that their only value is to keep boards like this one from dying of boredom during the summer 

Oh for sure there are lots of variables and the health and eligibility of key players will always play a roll. But Minny was never going to be as good as projected!

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26 minutes ago, Hoosierhoopster said:

Oh for sure there are lots of variables and the health and eligibility of key players will always play a roll. But Minny was never going to be as good as projected!

Of course not. I think they've got the absolute worst coach in the B1G.

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