Talent development, recruiting and cheating...

[FKIM01]

I originally made this comment in Stewart's recruiting thread and proceeded to derail that topic, so I'll re-post it here.  Just a commentary on my frustration with the snake oil being sold south of the Ohio River.  To be fair, another poster pointed out that coach K doesn't have a great record of preparing players for the NBA.  I didn't research that angle, but made a general comment about K being better at player development.  Maybe that just applies to the college game, but I still see him as annoying, yes, but a better college coach that the Slimeball of Lexington.  Anyway, here's the original post for discussion:

I'm wondering when these kids figure out that he's offering nothing but hype. Top 20 players go there for a year and get drafted...just like they could at 40 other programs.  Frankly, Tom Crean has a better track record when it comes to pro development  Show me kids whose draft stock was improved...I just don't see it.  Instead, I see kids like Skal Labissiere who was projected at # 1 or #2, and if anything, went backwards at UK and barely stayed in the first round.  Nerlens Noel was another projected #1 who slid less, but still ended up at #6 behind two IU players.  Tyler Ulis was projected by some as a lottery pick but ended up early in the second round and after two seasons, is in danger of washing out of the league.  On the other side Yogi Ferrell went undrafted and is under contract with the Dallas Mavericks and Troy Williams similarly undrafted is under contract with the Knicks.

Looking back at Cal's first round draft picks, for every John Wall and Anthony Davis, there are plenty of unsuccessful NBA careers.  Marquis Teague drafted late in the first round lasted a couple of seasons and washed out.  Daniel Orton, late first round...lasted three seasons and washed out.  Terrence Jones drafted at 18 lasted five seasons and washed out, Archie Goodwin drafted late in the first round lasted four seasons and washed out, Nerlens Noel (#6) lasted five season and washed out, James Young (#17) lasted four seasons and washed out, Trey Lyles (#12) has been...underwhelming, and looks like a candidate for a washout after three seasons.

There are plenty of examples of players who have gone on to be successful in the NBA, but for the most part, they were projected lottery picks when they went to Kentucky.  I looked for UK players drafted in the second round under Cal to see if I cold find some success stories and really didn't see much.  Andrew Harrison (remember the Harrison twins?) might qualify as a second round success story, but he's also an example of a player who was expected to go much higher.

Bottom line is, I don't see any special development ability under coach Cal.  He's coached a lot of kids who were expected to be NBA all-stars and many have performed as expected, with several washing out or in danger of washing out and very few I can point to as outperforming expectations.  If you want to be drafted, Kentucky can get you drafted perhaps a little more often than many competing schools.  If you want to stick in the NBA and be successful, Cal's record vs. expectations is nothing special at all.

[FKIM01]

The articles relating to UK Paying Anthony Davis' family:

https://www.sbnation.com/2010/8/4/1605399/Anthony-davis-kentucky-recruit-200000-dollars

http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2010-08-06/sports/ct-spt-0806-prep-kentucky-sun-times-20100805_1_story-kentucky-chicago-sun-times

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/news/story?id=5443230

https://deadspin.com/5606455/sun-times-going-hard-on-uks-pay-for-play-recruit

https://www.sportsgrid.com/real-sports/ncaa-basketball/chicago-sun-times-publishes-wild-rumor-about-high-school-basketball-stars-recruitment/

http://orangefizz.net/2012/04/syracuse-the-controversial-anthony-davis/

Full disclosure: I believe the family was paid...duh.

[FW_Hoosier]

To be clear, both Cal and K are slimy cheaters.

As for developing NBA talent, here are the lists of Duke and UK players currently in the NBA:

https://basketball.realgm.com/ncaa/conferences/Ivy-League/14/Duke/31/nba-players

https://basketball.realgm.com/ncaa/conferences/Southeastern-Conference/8/Kentucky/258/nba-players

I would say that Cal clearly has the upper hand here, but that’s most likely because he just landed the better raw talent.

As far as college success, since Cal got to UK in 2009:

K: 2 titles, 2 Elite 8s, 2 Sweet 16s, 1 second round exit, 2 first round exits

Cal: 1 title, 1 runner-up, 2 Final Fours, 2 Elite 8s, 1 Sweet 16, 1 second round exit, 1 NIT first round exit.

You can say K has two titles to Cal’s one, but Cal has also made twice as many Final Fours, and has made the Elite 8 or better six times to K’s four.  K also won the title in 2010 with a very veteran team.  I would say that Cal has had far more college success with the one-and-done model than K has.

[FKIM01]

I think it's all about raw talent for Cal.  You get enough talent, even mediocre coaches can have success. Given his recruiting classes, I'd argue that Cal has underachieved in college as well as development for the pros (which is what the original post is all about).  I can only imagine Knight in his prime with that much talent.  Bottom line is, I think given the talent he has been able to assemble, Cal has underachieved in college success, underachieved in NBA player development and cheated (paid player families) to get where he is.

[FW_Hoosier]

5 minutes ago, FKIM01 said:

I think it's all about raw talent for Cal.  You get enough talent, even mediocre coaches can have success. Given his recruiting classes, I'd argue that Cal has underachieved in college as well as development for the pros (which is what the original post is all about).  I can only imagine Knight in his prime with that much talent.  Bottom line is, I think given the talent he has been able to assemble, Cal has underachieved in college success, underachieved in NBA player development and cheated (paid player families) to get where he is.

Agree with your last two points, but it’s hard for me to say he’s underachieved in college success when he’s made the Elite 8 or better six out of his nine years at UK.  Definitely hasn’t overachieved based on the talent he’s had, and only one title is a mark against him.  And it’s definitely more about the talent he gets than his in-game coaching acumen.  But with how much of a crapshoot the tournament is, six Elite Eights in nine years is about all you can ask for.

[IowaHoosierFan]

I think draw for the top talent to go to kentucky is two fold.  

1. They are always talked about, always on TV, and always playing against top talent and they win alot.

2. Many are getting guaranteed contracts after one year of school with alot of endorsements immediately upon being drafted.

That isn't hard to sell.  You will always be on TV, a chance at a final 4 almost every year and being drafted in the first round.  All of which will get you guaranteed money.  How they manage that money is up to them.

On the development side of things, i do agree that coach Cal doesn't do a good job getting them ready,  But i don't think that is all on him.  I think some of these kids are just so naturally talented at 18 but that is their top.  They never get any better when playing against talent as good or better.

IMO ~Jason

[Guest]

Agree with the premise here, have never liked or respected Cal as a person or a coach, and completely endorse the idea that his program runs on hyperbole and fluff.

All that said, regardless of what the research shows, I don't think it will have one bit of impact in slowing down the pipeline of 5 -Star recruits to Lexington. At the level these kids are being rated as, I believe every one of them would look at your research and claim, "Not gonna be me." In fact, if the kid was considering IU and didn't have that mentality, I wouldn't want him in our program. What these kids see is....celebrities hanging around the locker room, ESPN fawning over Cal and the program, a fanbase just as rabid as ours, constant tv exposure-often deep into the tournament, and finally, the steady flow of UK players walking across that stage when their names are called in the draft. In this world of instant gratification the mindset is to get me to the league now, vs develop me and eventually I'll get there. If nothing else, Cal can tell that story all day long. He can point to how successful he has been at getting kids into the league, and then he can wipe his hands of it, pushing the development part of the kid off on the league, the kid, whomever.

For all the props he gets from the media, I have never read ( although in fairness I have never looked for) an article from an NBA GM or head coach lauding the coaching skills of Cal. I truly believe he is doing a great disservice to the kids who come to his program expecting that in one year they are bound for long term professional success. Unfortunately, he comes across as an entertaining guy, willing to wear his emotions right out there on his sleeve, which makes for great media coverage. For a company looking to fill 24/7 hours of content on a variety of stations, like ESPN, they are more than willing to kiss up to Cal for the ratings and the revenue, playing right into what he's all about.

[IowaHoosierFan]

One thing i forgot to mention is the 5* accommodations they have for their basketball players.  Their living quarters are second to none.  And being a legend on campus can't hurt either.

[HoosierTownie]

11 hours ago, FKIM01 said:

I think it's all about raw talent for Cal.  You get enough talent, even mediocre coaches can have success. Given his recruiting classes, I'd argue that Cal has underachieved in college as well as development for the pros (which is what the original post is all about).  I can only imagine Knight in his prime with that much talent.  Bottom line is, I think given the talent he has been able to assemble, Cal has underachieved in college success, underachieved in NBA player development and cheated (paid player families) to get where he is.

Just wanted to point out that I know some of us on this board did get to see what Knight did with this type of talent...a Scott May broken arm away from back-to-back undefeated national championships.

 

1975 Draft: Round 2 - S. Green (30); J. Laskowski (32)

1976 Draft: Round 1 - S. May (2); Q. Buckner (7); B. Wlikerson (11); Round 3 - T. Abernathy (43)

1977 Draft: Round 1 - K. Benson (1)

1978 Draft: Round 2 - W. Radford (27)

[IowaHoosierFan]

2 hours ago, HoosierTownie said:

Just wanted to point out that I know some of us on this board did get to see what Knight did with this type of talent...a Scott May broken arm away from back-to-back undefeated national championships.

 

1975 Draft: Round 2 - S. Green (30); J. Laskowski (32)

1976 Draft: Round 1 - S. May (2); Q. Buckner (7); B. Wlikerson (11); Round 3 - T. Abernathy (43)

1977 Draft: Round 1 - K. Benson (1)

1978 Draft: Round 2 - W. Radford (27)

Slightly different era where that caliber of players stayed 4 years.  Can you image some of the teams Cal would have if they all stayed until Seniors.  Even he couldn't screw that up

[IU Scott]

36 minutes ago, IowaHoosierFan said:

Slightly different era where that caliber of players stayed 4 years.  Can you image some of the teams Cal would have if they all stayed until Seniors.  Even he couldn't screw that up

People  that but they would not get back to back great classes if those players stayed 4 years.  If Cousins was there then they probably would have not gotten Davis and you could say that for any position.

[IowaHoosierFan]

1 hour ago, IU Scott said:

People  that but they would not get back to back great classes if those players stayed 4 years.  If Cousins was there then they probably would have not gotten Davis and you could say that for any position.

True.  Pick the team that won the National Title and have them stay 4 years and they could have won a couple

[HoosierTownie]

3 hours ago, IowaHoosierFan said:

Slightly different era where that caliber of players stayed 4 years.  Can you image some of the teams Cal would have if they all stayed until Seniors.  Even he couldn't screw that up

Definitely true.  Conversely, had they played in this era, it could be argued that May would have been a one and done player, and quite possibly Benson, Buckner and Wilkerson as well.  I do agree that Cal could have had some monster teams had some of his players stayed longer, however, going back to the opening post and the debate on his ability to develop players, which I don't think he is very good it, it's hard to tell just how good they would have been.

The real difference I see, era's aside, is that Cal goes out and tries to recruit the best talent he can and then hopes they mesh as a team as the season progresses and I'm not sure how that would project out over a course of years with regard to team chemistry, I think in that case Cal's teams would see a number of transfers as guys aren't happy with their minutes and/or stats or feel they are being under utilized..  Knight recruited a team and then coached them to maximize their potential.

[Mesaiufan]

22 hours ago, FKIM01 said:

I originally made this comment in Stewart's recruiting thread and proceeded to derail that topic, so I'll re-post it here.  Just a commentary on my frustration with the snake oil being sold south of the Ohio River.  To be fair, another poster pointed out that coach K doesn't have a great record of preparing players for the NBA.  I didn't research that angle, but made a general comment about K being better at player development.  Maybe that just applies to the college game, but I still see him as annoying, yes, but a better college coach that the Slimeball of Lexington.  Anyway, here's the original post for discussion:

I'm wondering when these kids figure out that he's offering nothing but hype. Top 20 players go there for a year and get drafted...just like they could at 40 other programs.  Frankly, Tom Crean has a better track record when it comes to pro development  Show me kids whose draft stock was improved...I just don't see it.  Instead, I see kids like Skal Labissiere who was projected at # 1 or #2, and if anything, went backwards at UK and barely stayed in the first round.  Nerlens Noel was another projected #1 who slid less, but still ended up at #6 behind two IU players.  Tyler Ulis was projected by some as a lottery pick but ended up early in the second round and after two seasons, is in danger of washing out of the league.  On the other side Yogi Ferrell went undrafted and is under contract with the Dallas Mavericks and Troy Williams similarly undrafted is under contract with the Knicks.

Looking back at Cal's first round draft picks, for every John Wall and Anthony Davis, there are plenty of unsuccessful NBA careers.  Marquis Teague drafted late in the first round lasted a couple of seasons and washed out.  Daniel Orton, late first round...lasted three seasons and washed out.  Terrence Jones drafted at 18 lasted five seasons and washed out, Archie Goodwin drafted late in the first round lasted four seasons and washed out, Nerlens Noel (#6) lasted five season and washed out, James Young (#17) lasted four seasons and washed out, Trey Lyles (#12) has been...underwhelming, and looks like a candidate for a washout after three seasons.

There are plenty of examples of players who have gone on to be successful in the NBA, but for the most part, they were projected lottery picks when they went to Kentucky.  I looked for UK players drafted in the second round under Cal to see if I cold find some success stories and really didn't see much.  Andrew Harrison (remember the Harrison twins?) might qualify as a second round success story, but he's also an example of a player who was expected to go much higher.

Bottom line is, I don't see any special development ability under coach Cal.  He's coached a lot of kids who were expected to be NBA all-stars and many have performed as expected, with several washing out or in danger of washing out and very few I can point to as outperforming expectations.  If you want to be drafted, Kentucky can get you drafted perhaps a little more often than many competing schools.  If you want to stick in the NBA and be successful, Cal's record vs. expectations is nothing special at all.

Ulis was released by the Sun's over the weekend.

[PoHoosier]

This one falls under the cheating part of the topic, which begs a question to be asked after study.

SIAP

Ollie and Uconn

After I looked it over, Ollie's basis for a lawsuit is "My predecessor did it - you didn't fire him".
Connecticut could say they are attempting to clean up their image, however, firing him after
missing the NCAA the last 2 years and Ollie going 14-18 in his final season seems like its all about Wins and $$$.
It all seems like a cesspool up there and Uconn's light is diminishing.

[dgambill]

Living in Kentucky now I can give credit to Cal for convincing these kids to sacrifice and play within the concept of team. I’m forced to listen to a lot of his radio show and other stuff down here and he is pretty smart to develop these kids...taking them from AAU no defense self centered tour with all the hanger ons...he relates well with the kids..but coaching on the court and his substitutions and game situational coaching...horrendous. It’s hard to be a great coach, recruiter, etc all in one...but I’m super happy with Archie...I think he will be the best of both worlds.