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Massive topic on why the B1G sucks, why defense is overrated, why you should give Crean more credit, and some potential red flags with Archie. 


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12 minutes ago, IU Scott said:

I guess I am to old school because I couldn't care less about all of these metrics that are used today.  The stats I care about is the winning percentage our shooting percentage and our defensive percentage.  To me I care about if we out rebound a team, have less turnovers and shoot more free throws.  All these other ways of looking at the game I have no desire to look at because I think my eyes can tell me the story better.  I have watched basketball for over 40 years and my eye test is really all I need to know if the team is going to be good or not.  I  don't need a bunch of stats to show me what I already know.

I get that...I think what the OP's statistics are basically the same as what you are saying. Most of these new analytics basically factor in the things you are saying and measure them and spit out a ratio or percentage etc. For most people sitting and staring at a bunch of numbers causes headaches so I'm sure this conversation is not interesting. I think it is too early to tell if Archie's philosophy will or won't work. Many coaches will speed up the game etc when they have the right players to do so...and will slow it down when they don't have decision makers on the floor they trust...or a team that doesn't shoot well etc. Last year our team was pretty pathetic shooters....I mean possibly the worst Indiana has had since any of us has been born. You don't want that team with those guards running and gunning. Because our offense worked best flowing through Morgan (a big basically) we had to slow things down and work off him. The team we have this year should allow us to be a little more free and pick up the pace and we actually have some scorers with Romeo and Hunter etc. Give me an elite pg and a few shooters and some bigs that will clean up the boards and get me some easy baskets and I'm pretty sure Archie will unleash the hounds. I don't think Archie is as controlling and rigid as you think. Coaching at a school with mostly 3 star athletes there are only so much you can do until they learn enough and get good enough to let them go on their own....and I think you saw a little of that. With the talent on this roster now...you are going to see him grow as a coach as well. (At least that is my opinion)

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9 minutes ago, dgambill said:

I get that...I think what the OP's statistics are basically the same as what you are saying. Most of these new analytics basically factor in the things you are saying and measure them and spit out a ratio or percentage etc. For most people sitting and staring at a bunch of numbers causes headaches so I'm sure this conversation is not interesting. I think it is too early to tell if Archie's philosophy will or won't work. Many coaches will speed up the game etc when they have the right players to do so...and will slow it down when they don't have decision makers on the floor they trust...or a team that doesn't shoot well etc. Last year our team was pretty pathetic shooters....I mean possibly the worst Indiana has had since any of us has been born. You don't want that team with those guards running and gunning. Because our offense worked best flowing through Morgan (a big basically) we had to slow things down and work off him. The team we have this year should allow us to be a little more free and pick up the pace and we actually have some scorers with Romeo and Hunter etc. Give me an elite pg and a few shooters and some bigs that will clean up the boards and get me some easy baskets and I'm pretty sure Archie will unleash the hounds. I don't think Archie is as controlling and rigid as you think. Coaching at a school with mostly 3 star athletes there are only so much you can do until they learn enough and get good enough to let them go on their own....and I think you saw a little of that. With the talent on this roster now...you are going to see him grow as a coach as well. (At least that is my opinion)

To me some just try to over think things when it comes to sports because to me sports is supposed to be entertainment.  To me if I am talking with friends about sports I want to know what you think and not what some stats tell you.

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6 hours ago, hoosiermd said:

I'm not sure that a slower tempo

Here are the Tempo ranks for Archie's Dayton/Indiana teams

2012: 213
2013: 174
2014: 223
2015: 229
2016: 183
2017: 163
2018: 251
AVG: 205

Here are the Tempo rankings for the national champions over the same time period:

2012: 150 (Kentucky)
2013: 116 (Louisville)
2014: 254 (Connecticut)
2015: 104 (Duke)
2016: 274 (Villanova)
2017: 40 (North Carolina)
2018: 150 (Villanova)
AVG: 155

Archie isn't that far off and if you look at his Dayton teams from 2014-2017 his tempo start to pick up the pace and I wonder if that is more in line with what he wanted to do once his systems were in place & his players were there. If you go back and look at the Pomeroy stats the one thing I always think sticks out is how fast North Carolina plays on a year to year basis. It's very unlike the other elite level teams, but they've won 3 titles under Williams playing like that so it's hard to argue with the results. 

One thing I've never understood in regards to pace (and I'm not a basketball coach) but I would think you'd want to run as much as possible simply from a possession standpoint. If you look at it like this:

Good offense/Good defense: Run to gain more possessions. You score but your defense is so good then possessions don't matter for the other team
Good offense/Bad defense: Run to gain more possessions to maximize your scoring output. Hope the other team doesn't score as much on your bad D
Bad offense/Good defense: Run to gain more possessions to maximize your scoring output. Your good D should limit the other team's conversions
Bad offense/Bad defense: Run to maximize possessions and hope to score as much as possible while your opponent has a HUGE off game

Regardless of how your team stacks, I've always wondered why the answer isn't always maximize pace/possessions in order to score more points. I guess 2014 UConn and 2016 Villanova run contrary to this.

I think you are right though about Archie & tempo. If he keeps the team in that 200-275 range then I don't think he's maximizing Indiana's chances at winning a championship. If he, however, can get into that 130-180 range then I think he hits the sweet spot there as far as the average for most recent national champions. I guess we'll have to wait and see. 

 

Could not agree more.  But I like to think about it in even simpler terms.  If your team can average 74 points, then thee more steals/fast break buckets move you  to 80. Moreover,  fast break buckets don't have to mean breakaways, it just means beating the other team up the floor for a high percentage shot. Now this brings me to my biggest concern. If steals or turnovers help you get better offensive numbers, and i agree that offense is probably most important,  then your defense should attempt to maximize the opportunity to steal the ball or create turnovers. While the packline defense appears to be good at  field goal percentage defending,  it does not seem to me, and my admittedly limited understanding, to allow the offense to take the fullest advantage of aggressive offensive opportunities.  I guess what I am wondering is, will slow it down defense allow us to play hurry up offense? I hope Archie proves me wrong. 

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16 hours ago, ADegenerate said:

Just killed a few hours in between study breaks trying to figure out what seems to be winning, why, and how. I wanted to figure out if I could come up with a 'mean' or optimal approach to a title because I've got it in my head that certain styles won't work and I wanted the data to either prove me right or wrong. Just a little learning experience / observations that I could pass along. I'm trying to figure out what archies going for here and comparing similar teams over the last 20 years. 

 

Seconding all of the posts thanking you for the work, that's some interesting stuff to read, no matter how it's interpreted. Props for the effort man.

Without delving into those numbers, I think they tell only part of the story so far. We've only seen CAM at IU for one season, with an inherited squad that largely lacked outside shooting. That starts to change with this incoming class.

CAM certainly has a record to review over the years, but he's never had the level of players that he's getting now at IU (Romeo et al.). He definitely runs the pack line, he's certainly defensively oriented (and I very much agree with your points about offense generally, and the numbers on offensive rating and success), but I think the proverbial jury is still out, and will be for another couple seasons, on what we can expect him to run offensively at IU. Our offense is probably going to jump significantly this season, with the balance we'll now have on the perimeter and inside. I think we'll see the wing continue to get more offensive players/shooters, but with Romeo on the perimeter and Morgan/Smith working it inside, among others, our offense should jump. I'd like to see better pace, but I think that also is likely to be a reflection of the players, and if you just look at who we have coming in, pace is headed in the right direction.

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2 hours ago, MSHoosier said:

Could not agree more.  But I like to think about it in even simpler terms.  If your team can average 74 points, then thee more steals/fast break buckets move you  to 80. Moreover,  fast break buckets don't have to mean breakaways, it just means beating the other team up the floor for a high percentage shot. Now this brings me to my biggest concern. If steals or turnovers help you get better offensive numbers, and i agree that offense is probably most important,  then your defense should attempt to maximize the opportunity to steal the ball or create turnovers. While the packline defense appears to be good at  field goal percentage defending,  it does not seem to me, and my admittedly limited understanding, to allow the offense to take the fullest advantage of aggressive offensive opportunities.  I guess what I am wondering is, will slow it down defense allow us to play hurry up offense? I hope Archie proves me wrong. 

Good point. It should help us with team rebounding but theoretically make it harder to get out ahead of the defense in transition because we aren't really playing to contest passes on the outside and those passing lanes. That however is offset because it cuts off room for teams to penetrate with the dribble because you often force into help...perhaps a steal that way. Plus I think some teams can get frustrated just making the simple open passes because it doesn't really open up the defense and the lane much so they may go for much riskier passes. I'll let someone else look up the number of steals etc in that defense and how that translates to transition offense....remember one thing...you can even initiate an up tempo fast break style offense even after a made basket. Lots of teams do this and put pressure on the opposing defenses just by their speed and passing up the court. In the end I think tempo very much comes down to coaches having great decision makers on the floor...especially at the point to know when to push and when to back it out and run something. We definitely didn't have that kind of smart talented guard play last year....and likely be another year honestly...but you have a guard you can trust like we had with Yogi or others before...you can take the restrictor plate off these cars and let them run a little. I expect Archie to up the tempo some more this year with the talent and athleticism he has....and as we get better players we will see it even more.

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I haven't read the entire thread in detail, but I have this. Is points per game a valid measure of defense? If a team scores a lot, the opponent, of course, will get more chances to score, and the more chances to score, the more points, no? Isn't something like points per possession a more valid indicator?

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9 minutes ago, Mac said:

I haven't read the entire thread in detail, but I have this. Is points per game a valid measure of defense? If a team scores a lot, the opponent, of course, will get more chances to score, and the more chances to score, the more points, no? Isn't something like points per possession a more valid indicator?

I think kens offensive rating covers all of that for us at a high level. PPP should correlate nicely with top level points per game so yes you are right. 

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Thanks for sticking with me here guys as I did this for fun and debated on even throwing it out unto the ether. I’m well aware that I’m a little eccentric and maybe a little enigmatic on top but I’m confident in my reasoning and line of thinking so 🤷🏼‍♂️. I know there’s a lot to digest and it’s a little sloppy and all over the place but I did my best at minimizing it and could have taken it much further.

I absolutely copied and pasted Sean onto Archie here...within reason...as to who I think Archie wants IU to become and that’s pretty fair. I think it’s fair game to question coaches philosophies while also supporting them. Wasn’t hating here or trying to spin a doom and gloom story as I trust  him and not sure you could improve the position anyway. It’s up to him and the staff to figure it out and he’ll have the opportunity with support to do so.

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2 hours ago, ADegenerate said:

Thanks for sticking with me here guys as I did this for fun and debated on even throwing it out unto the ether. I’m well aware that I’m a little eccentric and maybe a little enigmatic on top but I’m confident in my reasoning and line of thinking so 🤷🏼‍♂️. I know there’s a lot to digest and it’s a little sloppy and all over the place but I did my best at minimizing it and could have taken it much further.

I absolutely copied and pasted Sean onto Archie here...within reason...as to who I think Archie wants IU to become and that’s pretty fair. I think it’s fair game to question coaches philosophies while also supporting them. Wasn’t hating here or trying to spin a doom and gloom story as I trust  him and not sure you could improve the position anyway. It’s up to him and the staff to figure it out and he’ll have the opportunity with support to do so.

Great work and conversation. I 2nd HH in thanking you for posting this. It is exactly the type of conversation us forum geeks need during the offseasons. 

To get any thread over two pages this time of year (not recruiting related) means the work was well worth it.

People may agree or disagree with the conclusions, but is sure is a good discussion for the offseason.

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11 of the current Big Ten Teams have played in the NCAA Tournament Final Four !! Ohio State ln 1944 , 1946 , 1960 , 1961 , 1962 , 1968 , 2007 , & 2012 ! Buckeyes won THE NCAA tourney in 1960 !

Indiana in 1940 , 1953 , 1976 , 1981 , 1987 , 1992 , & 2002 !! IU WON the NCAA TOURNAMENT in 1940 , 1953 , 1976 , 1981 , & 1987 !!

Michigan State-1957 , 1979 , 2000 , 2001 , 2005 , 2009 , 2010  2015 !!! Spartans Won The NCAA Tournament in 1979 & 2000 !!

Illinois 1949 , 1951 , 1952 , 1973 , 1989  & 2005 !!

Michigan-1964 , 1966 , 1989 , 1992 , 1993 , 2013 , & 2018 !!!   Wolverines Won the NCAA Tournament in 1989 !!

Maryland--2001 & 2002 !! Terps Won the NCAA Tournament in 2002 !!

Penn State in 1954 !!

 Wisconsin 1941 & 2015 !! Badgers Won the NCAA Tournament in 1941 !!

Iowa 1955 & 1980 !!

pee yew smellermakers in 1969 they lost in the NCAA Championship game by 20 POINTS  !! pee yew also made the Final Four in 1980 !!

Minnesota in 1997 !! 

That makes FORTY Final Four appearances and ELEVEN NCAA  TOURNAMENT CHAMPIONSHIPS  by teams currently making up the "BIG TEN "  !! IN my opinion, The Big Ten Conference and its current members have done QUITE WELL IN THE NCAA TOURNAMENTS !

P.S. In NINE of the NCAA Tournaments there have been 2 of the final four participants being from current Big Ten member schools !! In 1976 IU & Michigan ! In 1989 Michigan & Illinois !! IN 1992 IU & Michigan ! In 1999  Michigan state and OHIO STATE !! in 2000 Michigan State & Wisconsin ! In 2001 Michigan State & Maryland !! In 2005 Illinois & Michigan State !! [AND] In 2015 Wisconsin & Michigan State ! 

In my honest opinion the Big Ten Conference is a pretty doggone STRONG CONFERENCE !!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Some good counterpoints there HTD -- On the flip side though, what we've been seeing for a long time now is the B1G "beating itself up" during the regular season with grind out teams (Wisc and often MSU) with physicality and slow pace. I think we're seeing the move to more up tempo and outside shooting (e.g., Michigan) changing in the B1G just as it is at the NBA level and nationally, and that probably favors the conference long term. 

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9 hours ago, hoosiertildeath said:

11 of the current Big Ten Teams have played in the NCAA Tournament Final Four !! Ohio State ln 1944 , 1946 , 1960 , 1961 , 1962 , 1968 , 2007 , & 2012 ! Buckeyes won THE NCAA tourney in 1960 !

Indiana in 1940 , 1953 , 1976 , 1981 , 1987 , 1992 , & 2002 !! IU WON the NCAA TOURNAMENT in 1940 , 1953 , 1976 , 1981 , & 1987 !!

Michigan State-1957 , 1979 , 2000 , 2001 , 2005 , 2009 , 2010  2015 !!! Spartans Won The NCAA Tournament in 1979 & 2000 !!

Illinois 1949 , 1951 , 1952 , 1973 , 1989  & 2005 !!

Michigan-1964 , 1966 , 1989 , 1992 , 1993 , 2013 , & 2018 !!!   Wolverines Won the NCAA Tournament in 1989 !!

Maryland--2001 & 2002 !! Terps Won the NCAA Tournament in 2002 !!

Penn State in 1954 !!

 Wisconsin 1941 & 2015 !! Badgers Won the NCAA Tournament in 1941 !!

Iowa 1955 & 1980 !!

pee yew smellermakers in 1969 they lost in the NCAA Championship game by 20 POINTS  !! pee yew also made the Final Four in 1980 !!

Minnesota in 1997 !! 

That makes FORTY Final Four appearances and ELEVEN NCAA  TOURNAMENT CHAMPIONSHIPS  by teams currently making up the "BIG TEN "  !! IN my opinion, The Big Ten Conference and its current members have done QUITE WELL IN THE NCAA TOURNAMENTS !

P.S. In NINE of the NCAA Tournaments there have been 2 of the final four participants being from current Big Ten member schools !! In 1976 IU & Michigan ! In 1989 Michigan & Illinois !! IN 1992 IU & Michigan ! In 1999  Michigan state and OHIO STATE !! in 2000 Michigan State & Wisconsin ! In 2001 Michigan State & Maryland !! In 2005 Illinois & Michigan State !! [AND] In 2015 Wisconsin & Michigan State ! 

In my honest opinion the Big Ten Conference is a pretty doggone STRONG CONFERENCE !!!!!!!!!!!!!

IU went to the final 4 in 73.  Illinois did not. 

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The B1G hasn't won a championship since 2000, and before that it was 89. That means the conference has won only 1 of the last 29 NCAA championships.

In that time, Duke has won 5, North Carolina 4, Kentucky 3, UCONN 2, Villanova 2, and Florida 2. They all have more as a team than we have as a conference.

We have a very strong regular season conference, but the game is trending away from the slow down, physical style the B1G is known for. B1G officials allow a lot more physical play than refs do in the tournament, so teams struggle to adapt. Same thing with Virginia. Most physical teams are great in the regular season, and struggle in the tourney.

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10 minutes ago, Leathernecks said:

The B1G hasn't won a championship since 2000, and before that it was 89. That means the conference has won only 1 of the last 29 NCAA championships.

In that time, Duke has won 5, North Carolina 4, Kentucky 3, UCONN 2, Villanova 2, and Florida 2. They all have more as a team than we have as a conference.

We have a very strong regular season conference, but the game is trending away from the slow down, physical style the B1G is known for. B1G officials allow a lot more physical play than refs do in the tournament, so teams struggle to adapt. Same thing with Virginia. Most physical teams are great in the regular season, and struggle in the tourney.

Bingo.

As long as teams like Wisconsin are allowed to maul their opponents without fouls being called, the Big Ten's championships and final four appearances will continue to fade into history.

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1 hour ago, Leathernecks said:

The B1G hasn't won a championship since 2000, and before that it was 89. That means the conference has won only 1 of the last 29 NCAA championships.

In that time, Duke has won 5, North Carolina 4, Kentucky 3, UCONN 2, Villanova 2, and Florida 2. They all have more as a team than we have as a conference.

We have a very strong regular season conference, but the game is trending away from the slow down, physical style the B1G is known for. B1G officials allow a lot more physical play than refs do in the tournament, so teams struggle to adapt. Same thing with Virginia. Most physical teams are great in the regular season, and struggle in the tourney.

JSMH.....sad.  But I wonder what conference has the most teams in that time period to make the FF?

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Since 2001 the Big ten has had teams in the Final Four TEN TImes ! While The Big Ten has not won the NCAA Tournament during that time ( Unless you count CURRENT BIG Ten Member Maryland's NCAA Championship in 2002 when IU was runnerup ) they [Big Ten] have certainly been a PRESENCE in the "Big Dance " ! Don't forget , there are 351 Division ! Basketball playing schools , so there is a hell of a lot of competiotion ffor those Final Four SPOTS !!

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  • Also, as much CHEATING as Kainsucky does , they did not play in the Final Four between 2001 and 2010 !! They did play in the Final  Four in 2011 , 2012 , 2014 , and 2015 They won the NCAA Championship in 2012 ! However , anyone with a brain knows those jerks are CHEATING in RECRUITING ! I hope the FBI finally gets the evidence to expose those cheaters !!!!!!! ( and any others that have cheated to WIN [?] the NCAA Championship since 2001 !!)😤
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2 hours ago, hoosiertildeath said:

Since 2001 the Big ten has had teams in the Final Four TEN TImes ! While The Big Ten has not won the NCAA Tournament during that time ( Unless you count CURRENT BIG Ten Member Maryland's NCAA Championship in 2002 when IU was runnerup ) they [Big Ten] have certainly been a PRESENCE in the "Big Dance " ! Don't forget , there are 351 Division ! Basketball playing schools , so there is a hell of a lot of competiotion ffor those Final Four SPOTS !!

That number doesn't knock me off my chair.

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I could be wrong but the B1G coaches has had a lot to do with it but as @Leathernecks pointed out.... a majority of the championships have been won by a handful of schools. I wouldn't say Duke and NC nor Florida or Villanova played with a more up tempo pace than any other teams. Fact was the champion is usually a very talented very well coached team that is good on BOTH ends of the floor. They are just well rounded and very skilled teams. I just think the B1G has not been keeping the talent at home like in years past. It used to be the best players from their home states the coaches kept them home...recruiting with AAU etc has changed the game and kids have an opportunity to go all over the country and be visible by more programs especially ones like UNC, Duke, Kansas etc and have more options. The coaches and programs that have been best at recruiting and building a program have benefited the most. It just so happens the a couple of the most consistent and dominant programs in the B1G have been Michigan St. and Wisconsin whose identity was with a slow down pound you inside, methodical offenses with hardened defenses. While some other schools went through some identity changes with losing iconic coaches etc those two coaches filled a void at the top. Then coaches and programs in trying to compete followed their model as to out tough, grind out possessions etc to beat them at THEIR game. Thus you have 8-10 programs all playing the same way and when they face a different style in the tournament...they struggle with it. I agree with the OP in that one dimensional basketball isn't enough..and when you get to the tournament (outside the first round) you are typically playing the best of the best and to run into a hot offense and find yourself playing catch up. A great defense will typically keep you in the game but you may not be able to put the game away without a really good offense to go with it. Sometimes the ol saying holds true. There is no defense for great offense. Hot shooting...making contested shots...some things you just can't do anything about...so you better be able to go score yourself. So anyways...I think that is why sometimes we see that the B1G team that does the best in the tournament doesn't necessarily win the league...they play an adaptable style of ball that can win against multiple style teams....and not just built to win one way.

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Well, you've made some good points about how the games has evolved on the offensive end.

One bone to pick..........Coach Crean.

I'm not certain how you think he saw the overall picture.

Look back at the stats you posted and tell me how many teams did well in the tournament with a defensive ranking of 250th.

That is NOT seeing 'the overall picture!'

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6 hours ago, greg haggard said:

Well, you've made some good points about how the games has evolved on the offensive end.

One bone to pick..........Coach Crean.

I'm not certain how you think he saw the overall picture.

Look back at the stats you posted and tell me how many teams did well in the tournament with a defensive ranking of 250th.

That is NOT seeing 'the overall picture!'

He did have 2 teams with a top 30 D and I think 1 with a top 20, might’ve been 25 (Vic). He definitely valued O at the expense of D generally though and that’s a large part of why he’s gone. Had several top 5 offenses, but lacked balance 

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