Record Prediction Thread

[jblaz13]

3 minutes ago, Hoosierhoopster said:

I'd add that outside shooting got a real booster shot -- Fitz plus Romeo will spread the floor big time. I'm optimistic, I'm just not going to say 25 wins or bust at this point.

Safer than me, and more likely than 27 for sure.  I'm going big to the high end of my guess range, and banking on IU getting more next level, game changing type performances out of either Romeo, and/ or Juwan. Also what that affords the guys around them the luxury to do.   Fouls predicted what I feel should be the floor for the team's record this year.. 

[FKIM01]

12 hours ago, Leathernecks said:

I'm really surprised by all these low win total predictions.  We have 2 of the best players in the conference in Morgan and Romeo.  We mostly lost average role players or players who basically everybody hated and talked about how terrible they were.  Another year older, and another year in Archie's system for returners should help too.

With this year's team, 22 or 23 wins should be the expectations for a coach who is average at best.  We all want Archie to be elite, and that's not 22/23 wins with this team.  I'll be disappointed if we don't win 24+ games.

Too many unanswered questions.  You set yourself up for disappointment with high expectations for a team you've never seen play.  I'd much rather predict 23 and see them win 25 or 26 vs. predicting 25+ and being disappointed.

[BGleas]

2 hours ago, Hoosierhoopster said:

I don't. Setting a 25-win bar in his second season and before we really have an idea about the rest of the B1G is a bit extreme, imo. Plenty of reason to be optimistic, sure, but a minimum 25? How will the point be handled this season, will Green show consistency and better decision-making, will a frosh, Rob, spend time at the point, will Al develop a jumper? Does Morgan make it through the season healthy? How's Romeo's wrist, is it just precautionary? Does Smith have the jump we're anticipating? Is this a veteran team? Not really. How will the team handle the January - February road trip? 

I see 25 as do-able, but not as simply expected.

I lean your way on this. This team certainly has the talent, etc. to be a Big Ten winner and win 25+ games if all the pieces come together. But, there are a ton of unknowns so I'm by no means predicting that. Are Green and Smith ready to be consistent? Is the Hunter hype real? Will McRoberts have more confidence in his jumper and have a big (relative to who he is) senior year or will he more/less be the same player? What do we get from Fitz (I personally think a lot, but who really knows?) Is Race going to be a big contributor? What's Phinisee going to bring? Those are all questions, and there are more, so the success of the team will come down to how all the pans out and how it all meshes together. 

[ephul]

2 hours ago, FW_Hoosier said:

Injuries to key players obviously change the calculation.  But assuming health, there’s no reason this team shouldn’t win 25+ games IMO.  We have a stud freshman class, four upperclassmen that will be playing key roles, and two first team all-conference level players.  Archie is being paid very handsomely to figure out all other the variables you mentioned.

If we win fewer than 24 or 25 games with no major injuries, Archie will have underachieved in both of his first two seasons at IU.  If he’s one of the best young coaches in the game like we think he is, we shouldn’t be expecting that.

He underachieved his first year? In what way?

[FW_Hoosier]

11 minutes ago, ephul said:

He underachieved his first year? In what way?

Ask the 72 people that took 20+ wins in this poll last year.

[Leathernecks]

My expectation is for IU to get back to being a top 5 program in the country.  If we're going to do that, it stands to reason that we need a top 5 coach.  If we would have hired Coach K, Jay Wright, Donovan, or any of the other top 5-7 coaches of the last 10 years, nobody would be predicting under 23 wins.  Most predictions would be in the 25-27 range.  This isn't Crean's time when being a good person and cleaning up the program made up for some losses.  We're past that.  We need our coach to be one of the best in the country, and if he is, he should win 25 games with this team.  If Coach K had this exact team and won 22 games, Duke fans would flip out.

[Hoosierhoopster]

38 minutes ago, Leathernecks said:

My expectation is for IU to get back to being a top 5 program in the country.  If we're going to do that, it stands to reason that we need a top 5 coach.  If we would have hired Coach K, Jay Wright, Donovan, or any of the other top 5-7 coaches of the last 10 years, nobody would be predicting under 23 wins.  Most predictions would be in the 25-27 range.  This isn't Crean's time when being a good person and cleaning up the program made up for some losses.  We're past that.  We need our coach to be one of the best in the country, and if he is, he should win 25 games with this team.  If Coach K had this exact team and won 22 games, Duke fans would flip out.

All fair, except this is his second year, and his first year with his own recruits, and we have questions at the point guard spot, etc. 

I think most here see CAM as a coach who will get us there, but this is about right now. I don't see any reason to say a coach who doesn't lead us to a 25 win season in his second season is a failure or not good enough. There are plenty of examples of the elite coaches who took a few years at their respective new programs to get there.

Edit, for the fun of it

Coach K - first three years at Duke: 17-13, 10-17, 11-17, then 24-10.

Jay Wright - first three years at Villanova:  19-13,15-16, 18-17, then 24-8.

Donovan: first three years at Fla: 13-17, 14-15, 22-9.

Not saying these are apples to apples, but there are all kinds of other examples, pull your favorite coaches, when they go to new programs, it generally takes a few years.

[ephul]

20 minutes ago, FW_Hoosier said:

Ask the 72 people that took 20+ wins in this poll last year.

And ask those people after the first game or so what their revised expectations were. A lot of guys didn't make the jump that everyone thought they would.

People thought Robert Johnson would take the team over. They thought Devonte Green would significantly cut his turnovers down. They thought Curtis Jones would turn the corner and become a player. They thought Cliff Moore would be on NBA scouts radar.

Now you can pin that on Archie, that's fine. But people expected significant jumps from players that just didn't happen. Combine that with the fact that Archie had to COMPLETELY re-teach defense to this team.

Put that on Archie. That's fine. But I believe that team would have been horrible under Crean. There was simply no shooting... No scorers. We HOPED we'd be a 20+ win team.

I thought Archie's first year was a great success. We learned defense. We learned the principles of Archie's system. We became a team that people really didn't want to play. 

At the end of the day, I saw significant improvement from the beginning of the year to the end, and that's what I was hoping for. An IU team that actually played defense and valued the ball (or were at least punished for not doing so).

[IU Scott]

30 minutes ago, Leathernecks said:

My expectation is for IU to get back to being a top 5 program in the country.  If we're going to do that, it stands to reason that we need a top 5 coach.  If we would have hired Coach K, Jay Wright, Donovan, or any of the other top 5-7 coaches of the last 10 years, nobody would be predicting under 23 wins.  Most predictions would be in the 25-27 range.  This isn't Crean's time when being a good person and cleaning up the program made up for some losses.  We're past that.  We need our coach to be one of the best in the country, and if he is, he should win 25 games with this team.  If Coach K had this exact team and won 22 games, Duke fans would flip out.

The problem with your line of thinking is none of the top 5 coaches were going to leave and come to IU.  I think you are setting yourself up for a disappointment with this line of thinking because the IU job is not what a lot of people think it is.

[IU Scott]

34 minutes ago, Leathernecks said:

My expectation is for IU to get back to being a top 5 program in the country.  If we're going to do that, it stands to reason that we need a top 5 coach.  If we would have hired Coach K, Jay Wright, Donovan, or any of the other top 5-7 coaches of the last 10 years, nobody would be predicting under 23 wins.  Most predictions would be in the 25-27 range.  This isn't Crean's time when being a good person and cleaning up the program made up for some losses.  We're past that.  We need our coach to be one of the best in the country, and if he is, he should win 25 games with this team.  If Coach K had this exact team and won 22 games, Duke fans would flip out.

Can you name this coach that had this record his first 3 years at his job?

17-13

10-17

11-17

He also finished 9-17 the previous year at his old school

[Leathernecks]

I don't care about what other coaches did with other teams.  For all I know, their rosters were decimated when they took over.  I don't have the time to go back and look through their rosters to see the talent they had.  I'm going to go out on a limb and say the coaches people have listed didn't have anywhere near the talent this year's IU team has.  We have 2 of the best players in the entire conference.

Plus, of the elite coaches out there, none of them took over at a great basketball school.  Coach K made Duke into one. Jay Wright had to make Villanova into one.  Donovan made Florida into one while he was there.  They had 5 NCAA appearances before he arrived.  IU's floor is nowhere near the floor of those programs when those coaches arrived.  The only top coaches who have had success at schools that were already blue blood programs were Roy Williams (Championship in year 2 at UNC), and Bill Self (Elite 8 in year 1 at Kansas).  The other coaches built their programs from the ground up, so I don't care what they did the first few years.

I'm looking at the talent we have this year, looking at the talent of the teams we play this year, and looking at the talent of our coach.  If Archie is who we want him to be, I expect 24+ wins.  If we don't get there, I'm not saying I'll want him fired.  Every single coach has years where they do better than expected (even John Groce had a good year at Ohio) and years where they do worse than expected.  This would just be a year that's worse than expected in my opinion.  If it happens this year and next year, then I'll be worried, but I don't expect that to happen.

[Leathernecks]

1 hour ago, IU Scott said:

Can you name this coach that had this record his first 3 years at his job?

17-13

10-17

11-17

He also finished 9-17 the previous year at his old school

Coach K

HH had him listed in his post a bit ago, so blame him for ruining it!

[BGleas]

2 hours ago, FW_Hoosier said:

Ask the 72 people that took 20+ wins in this poll last year.

Could just mean we all suck at making predictions?

[IU Scott]

26 minutes ago, Leathernecks said:

I don't care about what other coaches did with other teams.  For all I know, their rosters were decimated when they took over.  I don't have the time to go back and look through their rosters to see the talent they had.  I'm going to go out on a limb and say the coaches people have listed didn't have anywhere near the talent this year's IU team has.  We have 2 of the best players in the entire conference.

Plus, of the elite coaches out there, none of them took over at a great basketball school.  Coach K made Duke into one. Jay Wright had to make Villanova into one.  Donovan made Florida into one while he was there.  They had 5 NCAA appearances before he arrived.  IU's floor is nowhere near the floor of those programs when those coaches arrived.  The only top coaches who have had success at schools that were already blue blood programs were Roy Williams (Championship in year 2 at UNC), and Bill Self (Elite 8 in year 1 at Kansas).  The other coaches built their programs from the ground up, so I don't care what they did the first few years.

I'm looking at the talent we have this year, looking at the talent of the teams we play this year, and looking at the talent of our coach.  If Archie is who we want him to be, I expect 24+ wins.  If we don't get there, I'm not saying I'll want him fired.  Every single coach has years where they do better than expected (even John Groce had a good year at Ohio) and years where they do worse than expected.  This would just be a year that's worse than expected in my opinion.  If it happens this year and next year, then I'll be worried, but I don't expect that to happen.

Duke had went to the championship game 3 years before coach K arrived there.  Also someone on another site did some research on Duke and from the 50's-70's they were in the top 10 in finishing ranked in the top 10 so Duke had a lot of history before coach K.

[dbmhoosier]

31 minutes ago, BGleas said:

Could just mean we all suck at making predictions?

No one could've forseen the Deron injury or the Fort Wayne or ISU flukes.  Hartman was also gimped most of the season and we pissed away games against Illinois, Wisconsin, Rutgers, and OSU.  Most of us weren't far off.

[ephul]

19 minutes ago, dbmhoosier said:

No one could've forseen the Deron injury or the Fort Wayne or ISU flukes.  Hartman was also gimped most of the season and we pissed away games against Illinois, Wisconsin, Rutgers, and OSU.  Most of us weren't far off.

ISU and Fort Wayne weren't flukes. Our guys had no clue how to play D. We got blown out

[Brass Cannon]

3 minutes ago, ephul said:

ISU and Fort Wayne weren't flukes. Our guys had no clue how to play D. We got blown out

It’s a complicated defense even if you have been coached on how to play defense prior to that season. Our guys weren’t. 

[FW_Hoosier]

2 hours ago, ephul said:

And ask those people after the first game or so what their revised expectations were. A lot of guys didn't make the jump that everyone thought they would.

People thought Robert Johnson would take the team over. They thought Devonte Green would significantly cut his turnovers down. They thought Curtis Jones would turn the corner and become a player. They thought Cliff Moore would be on NBA scouts radar.

Now you can pin that on Archie, that's fine. But people expected significant jumps from players that just didn't happen. Combine that with the fact that Archie had to COMPLETELY re-teach defense to this team.

Put that on Archie. That's fine. But I believe that team would have been horrible under Crean. There was simply no shooting... No scorers. We HOPED we'd be a 20+ win team.

I thought Archie's first year was a great success. We learned defense. We learned the principles of Archie's system. We became a team that people really didn't want to play. 

At the end of the day, I saw significant improvement from the beginning of the year to the end, and that's what I was hoping for. An IU team that actually played defense and valued the ball (or were at least punished for not doing so).

Fair points.  I just can’t call any season where IU wins 16 games, fails to beat a single tournament team, and ends the year with a loss to Rutgers in the first round of the BTT a “great success.”  I did notice the improvements you mentioned, but they didn’t translate into wins at the end of the day.  Considering that, along with the experience on the roster, I don’t see how you can say that Archie met or exceeded expectations last season.

But that doesn’t mean I think Archie isn’t the guy.  On the contrary, the improvement we did see last season is what raises my expectations for this season.  We’re fairly young, but so is everyone in college basketball these days.  And we have experienced guys like Morgan, McRoberts, Green, and Fitzner that should be able to lead the way, along with the #1 recruiting class in the Big Ten.  Morgan and Romeo should be the best duo in the conference.  After an underwhelming year last year, it’s time to expect more with the talent we have.

[Hoosierhoopster]

2 hours ago, IU Scott said:

Can you name this coach that had this record his first 3 years at his job?

17-13

10-17

11-17

He also finished 9-17 the previous year at his old school

Well since I already noted that above....

[FW_Hoosier]

1 hour ago, BGleas said:

Could just mean we all suck at making predictions?

Very possible.  But when the topic is whether or not we underachieved last season, I think the expectations of the fanbase are relevant.  We were never going to be as good as some thought, but expecting 18-20 wins wasn’t unreasonable.

[IU Scott]

35 minutes ago, Hoosierhoopster said:

Well since I already noted that above....

Well excuse me that I did not see your post before I posted mine

[CTrojan88]

27-4 Regular Season

2-1 BTT

elite 8

[Hoosierhoopster]

14 hours ago, IU Scott said:

Well excuse me that I did not see your post before I posted mine

I didn't use an emoji -- was just a post in fun man!

[rico]

17 hours ago, IU Scott said:

Duke had went to the championship game 3 years before coach K arrived there.  Also someone on another site did some research on Duke and from the 50's-70's they were in the top 10 in finishing ranked in the top 10 so Duke had a lot of history before coach K.

Absolutely.  Duke was a powerhouse before K got there.  And to expand.....the year before Duke at one time was ranked #1.  Finished the year #14 and ended up going to the Elite 8.  To expand further, K took over a program that had 2 players from their title game.  One was a guy by the name of Gene Banks.  The other was Kenny Dennard.  And fwiw, Duke made the NIT and got beat in round 3 by Purdue at Mackey.

[hoosiertildeath]

I predict 30 wins for The Hoosiers ( IF THEY DO NOT LOSE ANY KEY PLAYERS TO INJURY , ACADEMIC ISSUES , OR DISCIPLINARY ISSUES) in 2018-2019 ! 😀   Of course , I am the eternal optimist ,vbg !! Seriously . I look at the DEPTH at every position and am VERY IMPRESSED with the 2018-2019 Hoosier Roster !! Go Hoosiers , muck pee yew ,vbg !!