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Another step in the march towards end of 1 and done


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Thanks HH for an interesting read. Once this takes into effect, pretty much the top 20 players in every class will be raised and guided in the new 'farm' system, and there will be very high chances they would skip colleges and go straight to pros simply because they will have so much advantages over the rest of the players in the same class. 

I'm thinking the high 4-stars in today's standard will be 5-stars in college recruiting in a couple of years. 

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2 hours ago, addictedtoIU said:

Thanks HH for an interesting read. Once this takes into effect, pretty much the top 20 players in every class will be raised and guided in the new 'farm' system, and there will be very high chances they would skip colleges and go straight to pros simply because they will have so much advantages over the rest of the players in the same class. 

I'm thinking the high 4-stars in today's standard will be 5-stars in college recruiting in a couple of years. 

I could see a lot of people trying to effect those doing the rating. I mean the money used to go the other way to people steering them to schools now it might go from those around the kids (agents) to these people ranking them to get them to be draft eligible.

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I have a feeling this will get worse before it gets better. Not saying it won’t get better, but think there will be plenty of issues to iron out. 

Sidenote, glad to see Eddie Lacerte mentioned in the article as in charge of the health/wellness. He was the head trainer for the Celtics for years until they let him go last off-season. One of the true gentlemen in the NBA. Super nice and classy guy. 

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12 hours ago, dgambill said:

I could see a lot of people trying to effect those doing the rating. I mean the money used to go the other way to people steering them to schools now it might go from those around the kids (agents) to these people ranking them to get them to be draft eligible.

My 2 cents is they will reference all ranking services but also will do their own evaluation to decide which ones are the cream of the crop in each class. I think this new change will reduce the amount of influence of shoe companies simply because shoe companies wouldn't want to spend big $$$ to kids outside of top 20. On the other hand, shoe companies still want their flagship schools to get good players from the remainder of the class and to do well every year to maintain the level of merchandise sales. 

Overall the college game will be watered down, which is inevitable and I don't mind. But from coaches' perspectives, their desires to get better players from the remainder won't change. Dirty coaches will still be dirty, and instead of working extensively with shoe companies, they may start asking more help from the big-time boosters who love to see their teams win at all costs. 

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Hopefully these kids get the right evaluation and make the right choice.  Before a lot of kids went straight to the NBA that shouldn't have so hopefully with this evaluation kids won't make the same mistakes.  If they are told they are not ready for the NBA they will listen and go to college.

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1 minute ago, IU Scott said:

Hopefully these kids get the right evaluation and make the right choice.  Before a lot of kids went straight to the NBA that shouldn't have so hopefully with this evaluation kids won't make the same mistakes.  If they are told they are not ready for the NBA they will listen and go to college.

Well with rule changes if they go undrafted they would be able to go to college right?

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12 minutes ago, IU Scott said:

Hopefully these kids get the right evaluation and make the right choice.  Before a lot of kids went straight to the NBA that shouldn't have so hopefully with this evaluation kids won't make the same mistakes.  If they are told they are not ready for the NBA they will listen and go to college.

I honestly don't know if there is a right evaluation.  

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2 hours ago, IU Scott said:

Hopefully these kids get the right evaluation and make the right choice.  Before a lot of kids went straight to the NBA that shouldn't have so hopefully with this evaluation kids won't make the same mistakes.  If they are told they are not ready for the NBA they will listen and go to college.

There were some kids from '96 to '06 that went straight from high school and didn't make it, but the majority actually panned out pretty well and had long careers. People like to say, "for every Kobe or Garnett, there were 20 kids that didn't make it", but that's not really accurate. 

You could probably argue that some of the guys that made it might have still benefited from a year or two of college anyway, but most of the guys that went/tried to go straight the NBA during that period at least carved out multiple contracts, and a high percentage (compared to college guys in that period) turned into straight up super stars/All-stars. 

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35 minutes ago, BGleas said:

There were some kids from '96 to '06 that went straight from high school and didn't make it, but the majority actually panned out pretty well and had long careers. People like to say, "for every Kobe or Garnett, there were 20 kids that didn't make it", but that's not really accurate. 

You could probably argue that some of the guys that made it might have still benefited from a year or two of college anyway, but most of the guys that went/tried to go straight the NBA during that period at least carved out multiple contracts, and a high percentage (compared to college guys in that period) turned into straight up super stars/All-stars. 

I've never really looked into the 'numbers' to see the breakdown of past guys who straight to the NBA. Do you have that info to post? Would be interesting to see.

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2 hours ago, Hoosierhoopster said:

I've never really looked into the 'numbers' to see the breakdown of past guys who straight to the NBA. Do you have that info to post? Would be interesting to see.

I don't have anything specific, but I have looked into it several times. I remember writing something for Celtics.com on it, but can't seem to find the link. It would've been 12+ years ago, so not sure how long the NBA keeps those links active. 

When I have looked into it, my takeaway is that the vast majority of those guys over those 10 years "made it", and a high percentage (compared to guys that went to college) turned out to be all-stars. 

Here are a couple interesting links, though they don't take into account guys that went undrafted. 

This one ranks all the straight to NBA draftees. Seems to me about 2/3 are multiple contract and at minimum rotational players. There's some gray area as there are a couple international guys in there (mostly on the flop side).

https://www.thesportster.com/basketball/official-ranking-of-all-nba-players-drafted-out-of-high-school/

Here wikipedia lists all the high school-to-NBA draftees. There are of course some guys that didn't make it, but most did.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_high_school_draftees#List

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1 hour ago, BGleas said:

I don't have anything specific, but I have looked into it several times. I remember writing something for Celtics.com on it, but can't seem to find the link. It would've been 12+ years ago, so not sure how long the NBA keeps those links active. 

When I have looked into it, my takeaway is that the vast majority of those guys over those 10 years "made it", and a high percentage (compared to guys that went to college) turned out to be all-stars. 

Here are a couple interesting links, though they don't take into account guys that went undrafted. 

This one ranks all the straight to NBA draftees. Seems to me about 2/3 are multiple contract and at minimum rotational players. There's some gray area as there are a couple international guys in there (mostly on the flop side).

https://www.thesportster.com/basketball/official-ranking-of-all-nba-players-drafted-out-of-high-school/

Here wikipedia lists all the high school-to-NBA draftees. There are of course some guys that didn't make it, but most did.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_high_school_draftees#List

Thanks. I'd be interested to see a list of how many declared and went un-drafted, but then that would also have to be compared to all the college players who declared and went un-drafted. 

I would think that the numbers would largely bear out what you're indicating -- my thinking is not that many high school players try to go directly to the NBA, and for those who did, they'd tend to be the uber-players who had a legit shot.

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6 hours ago, BGleas said:

 but most of the guys that went/tried to go straight the NBA during that period at least carved out multiple contracts, and a high percentage (compared to college guys in that period) turned into straight up super stars/All-stars. 

I would be really curious as to the data on that.  Specifically the all-star take.

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3 hours ago, Hoosierhoopster said:

Thanks. I'd be interested to see a list of how many declared and went un-drafted, but then that would also have to be compared to all the college players who declared and went un-drafted. 

I would think that the numbers would largely bear out what you're indicating -- my thinking is not that many high school players try to go directly to the NBA, and for those who did, they'd tend to be the uber-players who had a legit shot.

There were a handful of undrafted guys, Lenny Cooke comes to mind, but I don’t remember the number being that high. 

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13 hours ago, rico said:

I would be really curious as to the data on that.  Specifically the all-star take.

From 1995-2005 you had 10 direct from high school players that made at least 1 all-star game in their career. The total drafted over that time period was 38. That’s not a bad percentage, and of those 10 there are 5-6 Hall of Famers and 3 MVP’s. 

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6 hours ago, BGleas said:

From 1995-2005 you had 10 direct from high school players that made at least 1 all-star game in their career. The total drafted over that time period was 38. That’s not a bad percentage, and of those 10 there are 5-6 Hall of Farmers and MVP’s. 

Hall of farmers sounds like a place I work at :coffee:

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I think there were several of those straight to the NBA guys that ended up doing pretty well without living up to lottery pick expectations.  I'd also point to the Pacers boat anchor Jonathan Bender - he never lived up to much of anything because of chronic knee problems, but he got his chance and had at least two really nice contracts.

Maybe wishful thinking, but what if they get rid of the one and done rule by next years draft?  You could have a few HSer's along with the top performers from college vying for the top 10 slots in the draft.  Could that influence Romeo to stay a year and then come out as a higher pick the next year (i.e. not be competing against two young draft classes - 2018 & 2019)?

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2 hours ago, Zuckerkorn said:

I think there were several of those straight to the NBA guys that ended up doing pretty well without living up to lottery pick expectations.  I'd also point to the Pacers boat anchor Jonathan Bender - he never lived up to much of anything because of chronic knee problems, but he got his chance and had at least two really nice contracts.

Maybe wishful thinking, but what if they get rid of the one and done rule by next years draft?  You could have a few HSer's along with the top performers from college vying for the top 10 slots in the draft.  Could that influence Romeo to stay a year and then come out as a higher pick the next year (i.e. not be competing against two young draft classes - 2018 & 2019)?

I was thinking of Bender. As I recall he topped MJ's McD's game scoring record. He was, truly, a monster player, but was immediately hampered by those knee problems and promptly lost his spot in the League. I remember reading a year or two ago though that he was doing really well as a businessman, fwiw. 

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1 hour ago, Hoosierhoopster said:

I was thinking of Bender. As I recall he topped MJ's McD's game scoring record. He was, truly, a monster player, but was immediately hampered by those knee problems and promptly lost his spot in the League. I remember reading a year or two ago though that he was doing really well as a businessman, fwiw. 

Bender is the type of player I count as having "made it". He had more than one contract, was in the regular rotation and the only reason he wasn't a 10+ year vet was injuries. 

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On 8/29/2018 at 7:58 PM, dgambill said:

I could see a lot of people trying to effect those doing the rating. I mean the money used to go the other way to people steering them to schools now it might go from those around the kids (agents) to these people ranking them to get them to be draft eligible.

I can't see the Brian Snow's and the Evan Daniel's of the world having a say in the matter.

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56 minutes ago, Indykev said:

I can't see the Brian Snow's and the Evan Daniel's of the world having a say in the matter.

From what I gather it will be USA basketball and NBA scouts doing the decision process. Yeah most of these guys rating the kids now just hang around events and follow where the big programs go and then react.

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