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2018 Midterm Elections


Brass Cannon
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With political discussion finding its way into other topics thought I would give it a home

I am a big fan of fivethirtyeight myself although RCP is usually pretty “accurate” they do so by calling 3 times as many as it’s ups  I do disagree with their senate map  I think the Florida Gov race will turn Florida Blue.  Possible their model doesn’t have the ability to factor that in

North Dakota looks to be the State that matters  My gut says the state stays Blue if the Kavanaugh vote gets delayed.  Probably goes red if she is forced to vote  

Senate Forecast 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/

Not much to talk about with the House  almost certainly going to Democrats  and that even with NCs lines being unconstitutional but still being used  Seems odd.  This trade war is really hurting the GOP.  Reminds me of the WGA strike  in that we are losing more than we ever hope to gain  

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/

On our state level the house will continue to be a 7-2  I personally dislike both candidates for District 4.  One just wants to be a yes man for the president which is not congresses job.  And the other has no clue.  

Senate I just don’t see Braun winning  I can’t remember the last time I saw one of his ads and without the power of incumbency.  Plus last I looked he was basically out of money with the Koch Foundation not helping. I think the state stays split  

 

 

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13 minutes ago, rico said:

Rico's thoughts on this?  Constitutional amendment.  Term limits for both the House and Senate.  Both sides are the problem.  You might dislike Trump and his policies but he was dead right on one thing...........DC is a swamp.

I think Senators should have 1 term. That way they would vote their beliefs not with their party. House I’m ok with being unlimited. 

 

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6 minutes ago, Proud2BAHoosier said:

About the polls or Trump?

Trump might be popular with his base, which there is literally nothing he could do to lose that approval, but he isn't popular overall.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-approval-rating-is-down-muellers-is-up-is-there-a-connection/

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/#historical

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4 hours ago, rico said:

Rico's thoughts on this?  Constitutional amendment.  Term limits for both the House and Senate.  Both sides are the problem.  You might dislike Trump and his policies but he was dead right on one thing...........DC is a swamp.

And one 6 year term for president.  Time to work on an agenda and not going into campaign mode after 2 years. 

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2 hours ago, Brass Cannon said:

On 9/17 of 2010. Obama had 45 percent approval to 49 disapproval. Trump is at 38 and 56 respectively. -4 versus -18. 

And let’s not forget 2010 was the largest swing that resulted in a change of control since 1948. 

So no Trump is not popular and yes that is going to matter

Ummmmmmm.....where are these polls coming from?  Think about that for a moment.

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4 minutes ago, rico said:

Yeah, I do.  But take a shot to explain it to me from your point of view.

Well good pollsters get a variety of data points sort them by demographics then use these data points weighed appropriately by the voter bases demographics. 

Gallup calls random phone numbers. Using a random distribution with regards to area codes. The rating is based on about 1500 adults. Random distribution with 1500 data points give a relatively high degree of accuracy. 

And after doing some research it appears that recently Gallup has become right leaning if anything 

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