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CauseThatsMyDJ

2019 KenPom

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Obviously a lot of guesswork goes in to this at the beginning of the year and honestly it's just for "fun" at this point. Last year we finished 71st. This year we start out 28th. We are projected to go 20-11, 11-9 in conference. We are ranked behind MSU, Purdue, Wisconsin and Michigan.

https://kenpom.com/index.php

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If memory serves, his preseason rankings take into account returning players, transfers, and only 5-star freshmen, as well as a significant weighting of the program's success in the preceding four years.  That historical weighting is likely the reason why teams like Wisconsin and Purdue are ranked ahead of IU.

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^^ Agree, PU should be lower but as DJ points out this is early for KenPom. His early rankings are often off.  Interesting that our starting point, at 28, meshes with the AP poll though.

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3 hours ago, CauseThatsMyDJ said:

Obviously a lot of guesswork goes in to this at the beginning of the year and honestly it's just for "fun" at this point. Last year we finished 71st. This year we start out 28th. We are projected to go 20-11, 11-9 in conference. We are ranked behind MSU, Purdue, Wisconsin and Michigan.

https://kenpom.com/index.php

If that's the season IU has, it will be an abject failure.  I predicted 20 wins last year, but we are way, way, way better as a team this year.

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While his cumulative prediction is 20-11 and 11-9, taking each game individually, we are favored to go 24-7, 14-6.

Here are the losses he projects, FYI:

@Duke

@Penn State

@Michigan

@Maryland

@Purdue

@Michigan State

@Iowa

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48 minutes ago, CauseThatsMyDJ said:

While his cumulative prediction is 20-11 and 11-9, taking each game individually, we are favored to go 24-7, 14-6.

Here are the losses he projects, FYI:

@Duke

@Penn State

@Michigan

@Maryland

@Purdue

@Michigan State

@Iowa

My ignorance is speaking here...why would there be such a gap between the individual game predictions and the overall record?

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6 minutes ago, FKIM01 said:

My ignorance is speaking here...why would there be such a gap between the individual game predictions and the overall record?

Don't worry.  My ignorance speaks on here all the time.

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7 minutes ago, FKIM01 said:

My ignorance is speaking here...why would there be such a gap between the individual game predictions and the overall record?

It's stats related. Independent events and all that. If we have a 51% chance of winning game A and a 51% chance of winning game B, we only have a 26% chance of winning both. So, while both games independently are looked at as wins, in the cumulative record we would most likely go 1-1.

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57 minutes ago, CauseThatsMyDJ said:

While his cumulative prediction is 20-11 and 11-9, taking each game individually, we are favored to go 24-7, 14-6.

Here are the losses he projects, FYI:

@Duke

@Penn State

@Michigan

@Maryland

@Purdue

@Michigan State

@Iowa

I can understand every one of those.  Hopefully we do not lose them all, but as an individual game, none would be worth getting upset about.

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1 hour ago, CauseThatsMyDJ said:

While his cumulative prediction is 20-11 and 11-9, taking each game individually, we are favored to go 24-7, 14-6.

Here are the losses he projects, FYI:

@Duke

@Penn State

@Michigan

@Maryland

@Purdue

@Michigan State

@Iowa

Winning out at home -- as in getting back to winning out at home -- would be good, and is key to getting back to a strong season.

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43 minutes ago, CauseThatsMyDJ said:

It's stats related. Independent events and all that. If we have a 51% chance of winning game A and a 51% chance of winning game B, we only have a 26% chance of winning both. So, while both games independently are looked at as wins, in the cumulative record we would most likely go 1-1.

I understand that logic, but it should also apply to all the road losses they are projecting  Surely there's an equal likelihood that we won't lose all of them?  Even applying probability, I don't see 20-11.  That would be a disastrous season in my eyes.

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I cannot see this year's IU team, barring some unforseen catastrophe, finishing below Maryland, Michigan (which lost a ton), Purdue (which has only one stud) or Wisconsin (see Purdue).

Why are we picked to lose a Penn State?  I am going with only 3-4 losses in the BIG and maybe 6 or 7 overall.  Who knows about the early season.  Duke and most of the others are rebuilding.

Maybe i'm just an optimist, but I think this is the year that Archie begins to take IU back up to the top echelon.

 

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4 minutes ago, IUguy said:

I cannot see this year's IU team, barring some unforseen catastrophe, finishing below Maryland, Michigan (which lost a ton), Purdue (which has only one stud) or Wisconsin (see Purdue).

Why are we picked to lose a Penn State?  I am going with only 3-4 losses in the BIG and maybe 6 or 7 overall.  Who knows about the early season.  Duke and most of the others are rebuilding.

Maybe i'm just an optimist, but I think this is the year that Archie begins to take IU back up to the top echelon.

 

KenPom predictions always seem to put a significant emphasis on home court, even at places like Penn State, where the advantage is minimal.

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14 minutes ago, dbmhoosier said:

Tom Crean would win 25 games with this roster.

Without going into the Crean stuff, you just set the Bar for CAM. What will you say if CAM gets us less than 25, assuming everyone's healthy.

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1 minute ago, Hoosierhoopster said:

Without going into the Crean stuff, you just set the Bar for CAM. What will you say if CAM gets us less than 25, assuming everyone's healthy.

That we had a really bad year and the seat gets warm for year 3.  Not hot but warm.  That's not going to happen though.  We'll win the B1G.

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Just now, dbmhoosier said:

That we had a really bad year and the seat gets warm for year 3.  Not hot but warm.  That's not going to happen though.  We'll win the B1G.

I don't know about winning the B1G, but I do think CAM/IU do really well this season. I love the combination of players we have right now, with the veteran/Morgan - Frosh/Romeo 1-2 punch, the group of strong forwards, the added outside shooting, and the year of experience in CAM's system ready to pay dividends. That point-guard-by-committee is the question mark, hoping to see Green settle in and the combination of Al's growth and Rob's added pure point guard play making for a successful run. I think we compete in the top 4 of the B1G and are primed for a deep tourney run.

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20 minutes ago, dbmhoosier said:

Tom Crean would win 25 games with this roster.

Is that 25 after we win the CBI tournament?  :coffee:

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I'm not sure if Crean would win 25 games with this roster. Basically, he did 3 times in his 9-year tenure at IU, and he had pretty good rosters in those seasons with multiple NBA talents. Looking at our current roster, we have good wings and guards, spearheaded by Langford, but what we don't have is a legit pro-ready big man who can just flourish by himself. I believe Juwan Morgan had breakout season solely because he was coached by Archie Miller. Crean would've used/developed Morgan a lot differently. And I'm not sure if Crean would use Morgan the same way Archie does if our current roster would be handed to Crean. 

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Just now, cohete15 said:

Tom Crean wouldn’t have anything close to this roster. 

I don't know about that.  The Vic/Cody team was pretty talented.  Also the team with Yogi, Bryant, Troy, JBJ, RJ, Morgan, Zeisloft, and OG was pretty good.  The problem wasn't the roster.

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2 hours ago, dbmhoosier said:

I don't know about that.  The Vic/Cody team was pretty talented.  Also the team with Yogi, Bryant, Troy, JBJ, RJ, Morgan, Zeisloft, and OG was pretty good.  The problem wasn't the roster.

Of course his struggles were multifactorial, and we all know that. One of the biggest problems was the roster...Roster management. 

CTC was not in a place from a recruiting standpoint to land a class like our current one. I don’t think we would have a single player in common

*not sure why the text in the 2nd sentence is larger

Edited by cohete15
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