B1G Media: IU 9th

[tdhoosier]

15 minutes ago, Shooter said:

I agree with this. The easy analysis for most outside the program is that we went 7-11 last year, lost some of our best players, and didn't add any obvious instant impact recruits. So I completely understand why we are projected ninth. But if you dig a little deeper I don't think that simple analysis necessarily fits this team for two reasons:

1) Some of these same players were good enough to play important roles on a Big Ten championship team two years ago

2) Our poor season last year had a lot to do with coaching / culture / personality issues, not a lack of talent. As evidence, the talent on the roster was enough to beat two NCAA # 1 seeds (including the national champions).

If Archie is who we hope he is, this is an NCAA tournament caliber roster. (In my opinion, of course.)

Was going to post something very similar that paralleled your two points.

But two points many of the 'projectors' outside the program bring up are: an unproven point guard and unproven playmaker/scorer. Honestly, I can't argue with that. These two roles are unproven and unless those questiones are answered, I don't think we'll finish above 9th either. 

So I'll be sitting here crossing my fingers and hoping that either Newkirk or Green take a big leap forward to prove themselves as a dependable point guard. AND I'm going to hope that either Johnon or Davis will be a CONSISTENT and legitimate playmaker.

Whatever happens, I'm beyond excited for this season to start. After last season, as long as I see fewer turnovers and an effort on the defensive end I'll consider this season a success. (*tongue kinda in cheek)

[IU Scott]

16 minutes ago, tdhoosier said:

Was going to post something very similar that paralleled your two points.

But two points many of the 'projectors' outside the program bring up are: an unproven point guard and unproven playmaker/scorer. Honestly, I can't argue with that. These two roles are unproven and unless those questiones are answered, I don't think we'll finish above 9th either. 

So I'll be sitting here crossing my fingers and hoping that either Newkirk or Green take a big leap forward to prove themselves as a dependable point guard. AND I'm going to hope that either Johnon or Davis will be a CONSISTENT and legitimate playmaker.

Whatever happens, I'm beyond excited for this season to start. After last season, as long as I see fewer turnovers and an effort on the defensive end I'll consider this season a success. (*tongue kinda in cheek)

I thought Newkirk was one of our best players the last half of last season.

[tdhoosier]

1 minute ago, IU Scott said:

I thought Newkirk was one of our best players the last half of last season.

And our most reliable! Crazy.....what a turnaround from the beginning of the season.

That said, in order for us to hit our ceiling who does everyone think will be the ones steeping into the roles?

PG - I'll preface this by saying I'm not a Newkirk hater, I too thought at the end of last season he was our best player on the court at times. BUT I just think Green's upside and defensive could be huge. I think to hit our ceiling, it will be Green as our starting and Newkirk as our spark off the bench (or used as a third guard). I realize this is a huge ask on my part. 

Playmaker - I'll kind of split here. Both Johnson and Davis are practicing hard this summer. Both are hearing Archie's praises. I think Davis should be getting the most touches and we'll need to play through him. However, if we are able to play this inside out game, it will be Johnson who benefits. I'd really like to see Johnson improve his shooting and benefit from the kick outs. We'll need a consistent 17+ points a game from him; he can't put up 30 against a cupcake and then disappear on the road against a tough team. 

[IU Scott]

7 minutes ago, tdhoosier said:

And our most reliable! Crazy.....what a turnaround from the beginning of the season.

That said, in order for us to hit our ceiling who does everyone think will be the ones steeping into the roles?

PG - I'll preface this by saying I'm not a Newkirk hater, I too thought at the end of last season he was our best player on the court at times. BUT I just think Green's upside and defensive could be huge. I think to hit our ceiling, it will be Green as our starting and Newkirk as our spark off the bench (or used as a third guard). I realize this is a huge ask on my part. 

Playmaker - I'll kind of split here. Both Johnson and Davis are practicing hard this summer. Both are hearing Archie's praises. I think Davis should be getting the most touches and we'll need to play through him. However, if we are able to play this inside out game, it will be Johnson who benefits. I'd really like to see Johnson improve his shooting and benefit from the kick outs. We'll need a consistent 17+ points a game from him; he can't put up 30 against a cupcake and then disappear on the road against a tough team. 

I actually think Morgan is the key to this season.  If he steps up and become the leader of the team I think we will be OK

[KoB2011]

We have four talented upper class men that have won a conference title. Add a chip on their shoulder and a good coach and it is really hard to see that group and the talented underclassmen they play with finishing outside the top 5. 

[Hoosierhoopster]

2 hours ago, FW_Hoosier said:

Your view kind of matches up with what I found in my post above.  With the exception of Maryland, which has 8 four star recruits on the roster, every team projected ahead of IU has at least one player that made the All-Big Ten First, Second, Third, Honorable Mention, or Freshman teams last season.  Meanwhile, IU doesn’t have a player that made any of those teams last season.

On the other hand, IU has more four star recruits than every team projected to finish ahead of us this year, with the exception of MSU and Maryland.  It will all come down to whether those players can consistently produce at a high level in primary roles.

But, for example, I don’t see why a team like Michigan is getting so much more love than IU.  I don’t see how a core of Wagner, Matthews, Abdur-Rahkman, Robinson, and Simpson, with two four star freshmen in Poole and Livers, is more proven or talented than IU’s core at all.  Same goes for Iowa, which will basically have two good sophomores and a four star freshman.  And Wisconsin, which will have Happ and a bunch of nobodies, although I get that they’ve earned respect with their streak of top-4 finishes.

Gotta say, I'm hoping this is the year Wisconsin flops. I couldn't be more tired of Wisconsin.

[thirdgenhoosier]

What is it about Michigan that people like over us?  I know Mo Wagner is really darn good, but don't they also replace 3 other starters and a key back up including their point guard?  If past history is any indication then Michigan struggles the year after losing a bunch of seniors.  But, I really have no idea who they have back outside of Wagner.  Who knows more about them than I do?

[5fouls]

There is no reason we should finish outdide top 5.  Our experience absolutely makes a difference.  I will go so far as saying that even if we ger Langford and Garland that we will be better this year than next.

[FW_Hoosier]

3 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

There is no reason we should finish outdide top 5.  Our experience absolutely makes a difference.  I will go so far as saying that even if we ger Langford and Garland that we will be better this year than next.

No way.  We’re a 5 seed at best this year, next year we would be Final Four contenders with Langford and Garland.  RoJo, Newkirk, Hartman, and McSwain are a decent group of seniors, but none of them are game-changing college studs.

[5fouls]

4 minutes ago, FW_Hoosier said:

No way.  We’re a 5 seed at best this year, next year we would be Final Four contenders with Langford and Garland.  RoJo, Newkirk, Hartman, and McSwain are a decent group of seniors, but none of them are game-changing college studs.

Brand new toys are nice but i seem to recall Unc anf Nova winning it all with veteran teams.

[FW_Hoosier]

2 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

Brand new toys are nice but i seem to recall Unc anf Nova winning it all with veteran teams.

None of our upperclassmen would have started on either of those teams.  And RoJo and maybe Morgan are the only ones that might have seen significant minutes.  

I also think that a senior Morgan and junior Davis, Green, and Jones will be a better group than the upperclassmen we have this year.  Add in two top-10 freshmen and the other talented freshmen and sophomores we’ll have in 2018, and there’s really no comparison between this year’s team and that hypothetical 2018 team IMO.

[5fouls]

When was the last time that a team a freshman led team won the big ten.

[FW_Hoosier]

16 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

When was the last time that a team a freshman led team won the big ten.

There was one junior and one senior on the Michigan team that won the Big Ten regular season title in 2013-2014.  Neither was in the top 5 in minutes per game on that team, which was led by freshmen Irvin and Walton and sophomores Stauskas, LeVert, Robinson, and McGary.

[KoB2011]

1 hour ago, FW_Hoosier said:

There was one junior and one senior on the Michigan team that won the Big Ten regular season title in 2013-2014.  Neither was in the top 5 in minutes per game on that team, which was led by freshmen Irvin and Walton and sophomores Stauskas, LeVert, Robinson, and McGary.

There were a TON of NBA guys on that team, not to mention guys like Spike and Max Bielfeldt that were just gamers (both won conference titles at multiple schools).  I think it's fair to say there isn't a group quite like that in this years B1G. 

[Shooter]

6 hours ago, tdhoosier said:

And our most reliable! Crazy.....what a turnaround from the beginning of the season.

That said, in order for us to hit our ceiling who does everyone think will be the ones steeping into the roles?

PG - I'll preface this by saying I'm not a Newkirk hater, I too thought at the end of last season he was our best player on the court at times. BUT I just think Green's upside and defensive could be huge. I think to hit our ceiling, it will be Green as our starting and Newkirk as our spark off the bench (or used as a third guard). I realize this is a huge ask on my part. 

Playmaker - I'll kind of split here. Both Johnson and Davis are practicing hard this summer. Both are hearing Archie's praises. I think Davis should be getting the most touches and we'll need to play through him. However, if we are able to play this inside out game, it will be Johnson who benefits. I'd really like to see Johnson improve his shooting and benefit from the kick outs. We'll need a consistent 17+ points a game from him; he can't put up 30 against a cupcake and then disappear on the road against a tough team. 

I'm with you on Devonte Green. Excellent athlete, good feel for the game, can really shoot it. He's my sleeper on this roster that nobody is really talking about (though I see him as more of a combo guard than a pure point).

[FW_Hoosier]

9 minutes ago, KoB2011 said:

There were a TON of NBA guys on that team, not to mention guys like Spike and Max Bielfeldt that were just gamers (both won conference titles at multiple schools).  I think it's fair to say there isn't a group quite like that in this years B1G. 

No, but IU could have a group like that next season with Langford and Garland.

[rico]

2 hours ago, 5fouls said:

When was the last time that a team a freshman led team won the big ten.

Interesting question.  

[CauseThatsMyDJ]

The Oden/Conley Buckeyes come to mind. 

[milehiiu]

2 hours ago, 5fouls said:

When was the last time that a team a freshman led team won the big ten.

Two teams come immediately to mind, when one thinks of leading their teams.... as freshman.... to national prominence.  One was from the Big Ten.  And the other wasn't.

Kentucky’s Freshmen Conjure Memories of the Fab Five - The New York Times

 

[KoB2011]

21 minutes ago, FW_Hoosier said:

No, but IU could have a group like that next season with Langford and Garland.

Yes, totally agree there.  It could have been the beers, but I missed that in the context of what you were saying.  I think 5Fouls is right about our team this coming season, but you are right about our team the following season if we land Garland and Langford.  

[NCHoosier32]

i knew my post wouldn't be popular because everyone hopes for the best.  my point is that we don't have proven talent at the B1G level.  we all hope/expect that CAM will make a difference.  we all hope they play better together, etc.  i think they will, but IU fans are the only ones in the nation saying we can finish 3rd in the B1G or 4th or 5th.  hopefully we surprise everyone, but there's not really a strong basis for that prediction other than we like our players and hope the new coach will be good.  

[FW_Hoosier]

1 hour ago, NCHoosier32 said:

i knew my post wouldn't be popular because everyone hopes for the best.  my point is that we don't have proven talent at the B1G level.  we all hope/expect that CAM will make a difference.  we all hope they play better together, etc.  i think they will, but IU fans are the only ones in the nation saying we can finish 3rd in the B1G or 4th or 5th.  hopefully we surprise everyone, but there's not really a strong basis for that prediction other than we like our players and hope the new coach will be good.  

Why is there a strong basis for picking Michigan to finish 5th?

[KoB2011]

2 hours ago, NCHoosier32 said:

i knew my post wouldn't be popular because everyone hopes for the best.  my point is that we don't have proven talent at the B1G level.  we all hope/expect that CAM will make a difference.  we all hope they play better together, etc.  i think they will, but IU fans are the only ones in the nation saying we can finish 3rd in the B1G or 4th or 5th.  hopefully we surprise everyone, but there's not really a strong basis for that prediction other than we like our players and hope the new coach will be good.  

I haven't seen anyone advocating for us finishing that high use words like hope or expect. In my mind we have four proven veteran players on our team. 

How does a team like Wisconsin or Michigan have more proven players than us?

[zerawkid]

It’s easy to see prognosticators down on us. The big thing we lack is continuity. And that’s a really, really big factor. That’s the easy answer for teams with arguably less talent than us being picked to finish better than us. As many folks have pointed out here, we have plenty of talent, and we have a fair amount of experience still kicking around. But, what we also have is a real learning curve ahead of us.

The x-factor would be Archie. I believe I have heard him say, a couple times now, that the focus is on toughness and enhanced defense, while keeping the offense structure simple, at first, but effective. The thing about Archie is he has taken far more “talent” deprived squads and made tourney runs with them. He seems to be an absolute clinician, something we haven’t had at the helm since Bob Knight was in his 50’s. If these players buy in quickly and become “his guys,” this team can surprise people.

[IUaic]

I don't see how we finish outside the top 5 either. We finally have a Coach that knows how to Coach defense. We won't have to rely on our offense and ability to make 3's every game to win.

I can't wait for this season to be over so I can come back and say I told you so.