B1G Media: IU 9th

[Shooter]

3 hours ago, NCHoosier32 said:

i knew my post wouldn't be popular because everyone hopes for the best.  my point is that we don't have proven talent at the B1G level.  we all hope/expect that CAM will make a difference.  we all hope they play better together, etc.  i think they will, but IU fans are the only ones in the nation saying we can finish 3rd in the B1G or 4th or 5th.  hopefully we surprise everyone, but there's not really a strong basis for that prediction other than we like our players and hope the new coach will be good.  

You're creating a bit of a straw man with the "proven talent" thing. The 8 teams projected ahead of us aren't all stocked with proven talent. For example, Michigan has been a decent, not great program lately - they went 10-8 the last two years. They lost five of their top seven scorers from last year's team. Only two returning players averaged more than 10 mpg last year. Their highest rated recruit is a borderline top 100 guy. Michigan is projected fifth.

[Hoosierhoopster]

17 hours ago, 5fouls said:

There is no reason we should finish outdide top 5.  Our experience absolutely makes a difference.  I will go so far as saying that even if we ger Langford and Garland that we will be better this year than next.

Seems like this is setting up CAM for an epic fail. As others have said, IU fans are truly the only ones in the country who see IU as a top 5 team. 

I don't mean to say we can't get there, but if we do, I think that would reflect a truly tremendous coaching job and a leap in improvement and consistency from our players. 

We lost Bryant, OG and JBJ. OG was injured or sick for most of the year (played 16 games), so his loss in my book isn't as significant (still, 11.1 ppg and 55.7 fG%, 1st on team), although if he were returning, healthy, I'd be betting on IU as a top team. He is a tremendous talent, and he's already showing it in Toronto. There are reasons to be critical of JBJ's contributions vs. defensive inadequacies, but he led the team averaging 17 ppg on 42.3 % from the arc and 47.7 FG% to go with 4.8 boards (4th on team). Bryant's loss is certainly a big one, no pun intended. Rob is the only player returning who averaged double digit scoring. Yes other guys will step up, yes we have talented young players and I think really good veteran guards who are poised to excel, but that's a lot of points and depth to lose, and the team is learning a new system and style under CAM. If we finish top 5, that's above the bar, it's not expected.

[NCHoosier32]

9 hours ago, IUaic said:

I don't see how we finish outside the top 5 either. We finally have a Coach that knows how to Coach defense. We won't have to rely on our offense and ability to make 3's every game to win.

I can't wait for this season to be over so I can come back and say I told you so. 

i hope so too!  certainly not that i want to finish 9th.  just saying the rest of the nation disagrees with our board.

[NCHoosier32]

6 hours ago, Hoosierhoopster said:

Seems like this is setting up CAM for an epic fail. As others have said, IU fans are truly the only ones in the country who see IU as a top 5 team. 

I don't mean to say we can't get there, but if we do, I think that would reflect a truly tremendous coaching job and a leap in improvement and consistency from our players. 

We lost Bryant, OG and JBJ. OG was injured or sick for most of the year (played 16 games), so his loss in my book isn't as significant (still, 11.1 ppg and 55.7 fG%, 1st on team), although if he were returning, healthy, I'd be betting on IU as a top team. He is a tremendous talent, and he's already showing it in Toronto. There are reasons to be critical of JBJ's contributions vs. defensive inadequacies, but he led the team averaging 17 ppg on 42.3 % from the arc and 47.7 FG% to go with 4.8 boards (4th on team). Bryant's loss is certainly a big one, no pun intended. Rob is the only player returning who averaged double digit scoring. Yes other guys will step up, yes we have talented young players and I think really good veteran guards who are poised to excel, but that's a lot of points and depth to lose, and the team is learning a new system and style under CAM. If we finish top 5, that's above the bar, it's not expected.

i guess this is what i'm trying to get across.  i understand we have some guys with nice upside.  i'm just saying we seem to think we'll immediately jump up due to the coaching change and the rest of the nation does not.  i hope this board is right and they are wrong!

[Stlboiler23]

It seems like some people are legit discounting the guys you lost. Replacing JBJ, Bryant, and OG won't be easy. That's a lot of scoring, defense (not JBJ obviously) , and rebounding to replace. Could IU finish in the top 5? Sure it's possible. But I think it's more likely they finish in the 6-9 range. 

Obviously losing Swanigan is a big deal for Purdue but the combination of losing JBJ/OG/TB will be a big deal for you guys too. Not sure why some people are simply brushing it off. 

[KoB2011]

7 hours ago, Hoosierhoopster said:

Seems like this is setting up CAM for an epic fail. As others have said, IU fans are truly the only ones in the country who see IU as a top 5 team. 

I don't mean to say we can't get there, but if we do, I think that would reflect a truly tremendous coaching job and a leap in improvement and consistency from our players. 

We lost Bryant, OG and JBJ. OG was injured or sick for most of the year (played 16 games), so his loss in my book isn't as significant (still, 11.1 ppg and 55.7 fG%, 1st on team), although if he were returning, healthy, I'd be betting on IU as a top team. He is a tremendous talent, and he's already showing it in Toronto. There are reasons to be critical of JBJ's contributions vs. defensive inadequacies, but he led the team averaging 17 ppg on 42.3 % from the arc and 47.7 FG% to go with 4.8 boards (4th on team). Bryant's loss is certainly a big one, no pun intended. Rob is the only player returning who averaged double digit scoring. Yes other guys will step up, yes we have talented young players and I think really good veteran guards who are poised to excel, but that's a lot of points and depth to lose, and the team is learning a new system and style under CAM. If we finish top 5, that's above the bar, it's not expected.

I'd argue that Bryant and Blackmon are both additions by subtractions based on how they played last season.  They were quite possibly, the two worst individual defenders that saw major minutes in the conference last year.  Playing them both together made our entire defense awful, and IMO, sucked the life out of our team in other ways.  I think that'll be obvious in short order. 

[BoomBaby]

1 hour ago, Stlboiler23 said:

It seems like some people are legit discounting the guys you lost. Replacing JBJ, Bryant, and OG won't be easy. That's a lot of scoring, defense (not JBJ obviously) , and rebounding to replace. Could IU finish in the top 5? Sure it's possible. But I think it's more likely they finish in the 6-9 range. 

Obviously losing Swanigan is a big deal for Purdue but the combination of losing JBJ/OG/TB will be a big deal for you guys too. Not sure why some people are simply brushing it off. 

I'll help you out.  The reason for brushing off Blackmon is that we still have plenty of three-point shooters, and all the replacements are better defenders than he was.  Anunoby being lost is old news, given that he was already lost for most of last season; it's almost like saying how are we going to do without Yogi.  Bryant is definitely a loss, and depth at the 5 is certainly going to be affected.  But it's not as severe a loss as your  losing Swanigan.

[dbmhoosier]

When Sampson took over we had just lost Killingsworth, Vaden, Strickland, Kline, and Monroe and added almost nobody yet we were still a better team and had a better record than that 2006 team had.  I see a similar result this season.  It's amazing what a good coach can do for you.

 

[5fouls]

11 hours ago, Shooter said:

You're creating a bit of a straw man with the "proven talent" thing. The 8 teams projected ahead of us aren't all stocked with proven talent. For example, Michigan has been a decent, not great program lately - they went 10-8 the last two years. They lost five of their top seven scorers from last year's team. Only two returning players averaged more than 10 mpg last year. Their highest rated recruit is a borderline top 100 guy. Michigan is projected fifth.

This is a great post. I'm not only looking at it from the perspective of what IU has but what teams picked ahead of us as well.  Why should Michigan be picked ahead of us?  Why should Iowa be picked ahead of us?  It seems like some of you expect every team with arguably equal talent to us to finish ahead of us.  In other words you expect Archie to get outcoached by McCaffery, Collins, Gard, Painter, etc.

[FW_Hoosier]

2 hours ago, NCHoosier32 said:

i hope so too!  certainly not that i want to finish 9th.  just saying the rest of the nation disagrees with our board.

You still haven’t explained why you/the rest of the nation thinks Michigan will finish 5th while IU will finish 9th.

[Hoosierhoopster]

2 hours ago, KoB2011 said:

I'd argue that Bryant and Blackmon are both additions by subtractions based on how they played last season.  They were quite possibly, the two worst individual defenders that saw major minutes in the conference last year.  Playing them both together made our entire defense awful, and IMO, sucked the life out of our team in other ways.  I think that'll be obvious in short order. 

I hope you're right!

Bryant did not have the year I thought he'd have, but that's a great deal of scoring and depth to lose from those three. But I will toast you with props if you prove to be right!

[Stlboiler23]

2 hours ago, BoomBaby said:

I'll help you out.  The reason for brushing off Blackmon is that we still have plenty of three-point shooters, and all the replacements are better defenders than he was.  Anunoby being lost is old news, given that he was already lost for most of last season; it's almost like saying how are we going to do without Yogi.  Bryant is definitely a loss, and depth at the 5 is certainly going to be affected.  But it's not as severe a loss as your  losing Swanigan.

You have 3-point shooters who can average 17 a game like JBJ did?

[FW_Hoosier]

2 minutes ago, Stlboiler23 said:

You have 3-point shooters who can average 17 a game like JBJ did?

No, but we have at least one guard that that can average 15 a game.  I’m sure we’ll be able to find those other 2 points somewhere.

[IU Scott]

22 minutes ago, Stlboiler23 said:

You have 3-point shooters who can average 17 a game like JBJ did?

You can't just look at stats but you have to look at intangibles as well when looking at a roster.  I think there was a lot of chemistry issues with the team last year and some of that had to do with the guys we lost.  I think Johnson will step up and also think Green will be greatly improved to take over JBJ output.  Also I thought there were a dark cloud hanging over the program when it came tot he Crean drama. With all of this and hopefully better defense we will be a better team.

[KoB2011]

1 hour ago, Hoosierhoopster said:

I hope you're right!

Bryant did not have the year I thought he'd have, but that's a great deal of scoring and depth to lose from those three. But I will toast you with props if you prove to be right!

Bryant was never a good defender, so that was nothing new, but I think last year showed why being an emotional player isn't always good. Our team fed off of his emotion good freshman year and was a huge part of why we won the conference. His sophomore year his emotions also impacted the team, only this time it was negative, pouty, whiny emotions and less efficiency on offense because he decided to be a stretch five. 

I wish we had Bryant because I think Archie can get freshman Bryant to play defense and be a stud but sophomore Bryant wasn't a good player for us. 

[KoB2011]

1 hour ago, Stlboiler23 said:

You have 3-point shooters who can average 17 a game like JBJ did?

IU has been significantly better without Blackmon than with him. That's not hyperbole, that's a proven fact.

Purdue is hoping that they can have an elite team without an elite talent for the first time in a decade of Painter. Vince Edwards is not a Swanigan, Hummel, Moore or Johnson. 

[NCHoosier32]

8 hours ago, FW_Hoosier said:

You still haven’t explained why you/the rest of the nation thinks Michigan will finish 5th while IU will finish 9th.

i have no explanation for Michigan.  i don't really know their personnel.  you guys may very well be right that they don't deserve it.  i'm just pointing out that no one outside IU fans think IU will be in the top 5 of the conference.  again, i hope they are all wrong.

[KoB2011]

58 minutes ago, NCHoosier32 said:

i have no explanation for Michigan.  i don't really know their personnel.  you guys may very well be right that they don't deserve it.  i'm just pointing out that no one outside IU fans think IU will be in the top 5 of the conference.  again, i hope they are all wrong.

https://en.m.wikiquote.org/wiki/Argument_from_authority

[IUaic]

9 hours ago, Stlboiler23 said:

You have 3-point shooters who can average 17 a game like JBJ did?

No. But if we can get the team to collectively pick up 10 of those points and our defense cuts 10 points off of the other team, we are +3. With CAM, I think our biggest gain is someone that actually knows how to coach defense and will hold players accountable for it.  

I think the talent and experience of a starting 5 of Newkirk, Johnson, Morgan, Hartman, and Davis, with McSwain, Jones, Green, Smith, and McRoberts off the bench is good enough to finish in the top 5. Anything Priller, Moore, or Durham gives us is just extra.

I think this will be the toughest team we have had in a very long time.

[FW_Hoosier]

1 hour ago, NCHoosier32 said:

i have no explanation for Michigan.  i don't really know their personnel.  you guys may very well be right that they don't deserve it.  i'm just pointing out that no one outside IU fans think IU will be in the top 5 of the conference.  again, i hope they are all wrong.

Fair enough.  If you look at their roster, objectively, they lost just as much as we did, and are bringing back players that are just as unproven as ours.  I put very, very little stock in media predictions.

[Stlboiler23]

10 hours ago, KoB2011 said:

IU has been significantly better without Blackmon than with him. That's not hyperbole, that's a proven fact.

Purdue is hoping that they can have an elite team without an elite talent for the first time in a decade of Painter. Vince Edwards is not a Swanigan, Hummel, Moore or Johnson. 

I realize Purdue is losing a great player. However, when has Purdue done poorly with such a solid senior class? Sure none of them are superstars but they're really good together. Purdue has 4 guys who all have the chance to make one of the 3 All-B1G teams and that's pretty solid. I'm guessing at worst, they have 4 guys that make All-B1G/honorable mention. Those 4 are obviously V Edwards, C Edwards, Mathis, and Haas. Then you throw in solid complimentary guys like Thompson and Cline and you've got a solid core. If we get solid contributions from any of the freshmen, that'll be icing on the cake. I don't think we'll be as good as last year but I still think we can be a top 3 B1G team that can win some games in the tournament. 

[KoB2011]

22 minutes ago, Stlboiler23 said:

I realize Purdue is losing a great player. However, when has Purdue done poorly with such a solid senior class? Sure none of them are superstars but they're really good together. Purdue has 4 guys who all have the chance to make one of the 3 All-B1G teams and that's pretty solid. I'm guessing at worst, they have 4 guys that make All-B1G/honorable mention. Those 4 are obviously V Edwards, C Edwards, Mathis, and Haas. Then you throw in solid complimentary guys like Thompson and Cline and you've got a solid core. If we get solid contributions from any of the freshmen, that'll be icing on the cake. I don't think we'll be as good as last year but I still think we can be a top 3 B1G team that can win some games in the tournament. 

I understand why you feel that way, it just doesn't seem like your roster is that different than IU. The biggest difference, to me, is Davis has the highest ceiling of the group. 

I'll flip the question on you, when has Purdue won at a high level under Painter with a solid senior class and no studs? It's fair to say he hasn't had a team like this where he lacks a stud but has multiple solid upperclassmen, but it's not like this is a formula Painter has proven he can win with. 

And for me personally, I think Mathias and Haas are going to struggle a lot without Swanigan. Edwards will be fine, but he isn't really and efficient scorer anyway. 

[5fouls]

I have sai this before but its worth repeating.  If Johnson, Morgan, Davis, and Jones was an incoming group of freshmen, then everyone would be slobbering all over the place about how good we were going to be.  Yet, here we are with those guys being upper classmen and everyone thinks we are crap. Makes no sense.  

[5fouls]

Add to that. Everyone saying we could finish anywhere between 2nd-9th based on talent, does that mean if we do finish 9th then the coaching was substandard.  It would be like finishing 8th in a 8 horse race.  How is that acceptable?

[BGleas]

1 hour ago, 5fouls said:

I have sai this before but its worth repeating.  If Johnson, Morgan, Davis, and Jones was an incoming group of freshmen, then everyone would be slobbering all over the place about how good we were going to be.  Yet, here we are with those guys being upper classmen and everyone thinks we are crap. Makes no sense.  

That statement is completely devoid of any context. If that was a freshmen class and they were joining a team with Cody Zeller, VO, Watford, Hulls, an upperclassmen Yogi, then yes 'd be really excited. If that was a freshmen class joining a team with Freddie McSwain, Tim Priller, Colin Hartman coming off two knee surgeries, and a Josh Newkirk who had a pretty up and down first year here, then I'd feel pretty underwhelmed and hope we could finish 5th or so and slide into the tournament.