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Exposing Archie's outdated offensive ideology.


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Is there a place in today's game for his system? Absolutely not. His approach is completely outdated and even if he made massive tweaks and improvements it still wouldn't hold water in today's game. His game plan is to attack the basket, draw fouls, play a slow tempo style, and doesn't shoot many threes based all around tough defense. You cannot win that way. It's ass backwards and It's simple math. The game has evolved and rendered that useless. His data on three's for the last 7 years nets his teams 1.07 points per shot on 3's and 1.05 points per shot on twos. He's only taking about 600 3's per year and 1200 2's. 

Beileins teams take about 1,000 3's a year and they net him 1.12 points per shot. Jay Wrights teams take about the same and earn 1.13. This opens up the floor. I ran the data on two's for Belein and he's earning about 1.10. TO's aren't a problem either. Wright consistently ranks in the 200's. The key to it is assisting the ball, ranking 3rd both times that they won. 

You cannot win in today's game no matter how tough your defense is if you're taking shots that net you 1.05-1.07 points because all teams can hit tough three's late in the clock. Archie's teams don't even take care of the ball or assist it well either. It's just awful. They can't hit FT's either. The squad / roster game planning points to more of the same so strap in folks. Fun times ahead. 

Belein and Wright both run a super slow tempo but their teams constantly assist high and score wickedly high per shot. He'll never be able to average even close to 1.10 points per shot with this system. Get with the times dude. 

Food for thought. 

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First I want to say that my statement is not in defense of Arch. The problem is not his offense period. Just look how many open threes these so called 4 and five star recruits miss every game and make the ones from 30 ft with someone in their face? Think back to last year when Arch got a tech broke a clip board was feisty as heck and then the next thing you know from that time on he has only been calm nice Arch and never disappointed with the players. We will never reach the level we want at Indiana again until we rid the university of this culture. Unfortunately it is rooted so deep it would take someone with very very deep pockets to get it done. Defense still is not to the level it should be and these McDonald's all Americans play more like they should be flipping burgers then playing hoops on the best stage in college basketball.   

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3 hours ago, ADegenerate said:

Is there a place in today's game for his system? Absolutely not. His approach is completely outdated and even if he made massive tweaks and improvements it still wouldn't hold water in today's game. His game plan is to attack the basket, draw fouls, play a slow tempo style, and doesn't shoot many threes based all around tough defense. You cannot win that way. It's ass backwards and It's simple math. The game has evolved and rendered that useless. His data on three's for the last 7 years nets his teams 1.07 points per shot on 3's and 1.05 points per shot on twos. He's only taking about 600 3's per year and 1200 2's. 

Beileins teams take about 1,000 3's a year and they net him 1.12 points per shot. Jay Wrights teams take about the same and earn 1.13. This opens up the floor. I ran the data on two's for Belein and he's earning about 1.10. TO's aren't a problem either. Wright consistently ranks in the 200's. The key to it is assisting the ball, ranking 3rd both times that they won. 

You cannot win in today's game no matter how tough your defense is if you're taking shots that net you 1.05-1.07 points because all teams can hit tough three's late in the clock. Archie's teams don't even take care of the ball or assist it well either. It's just awful. They can't hit FT's either. The squad / roster game planning points to more of the same so strap in folks. Fun times ahead. 

Belein and Wright both run a super slow tempo but their teams constantly assist high and score wickedly high per shot. He'll never be able to average even close to 1.10 points per shot with this system. Get with the times dude. 

Food for thought. 

Again we beat 3-4 very good teams this year, with this offense.   Hes proven it to work...  but we gotta hit those 3's!  We get a lot of looks that the kids are passing up, or just plain miss.  

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We can scheme, x's and o's, try different line ups, blah blah blah.  How many layups we miss a game?airball ft's or little 12' jumpers?  Wide open 3's?  I  know at one point not long ago, statistically we were the worst 3 point shooting team in the history of the Big...  think about that! The worst ever! Something like 25.3%...   we have a good staff! Not above criticism mind you.  But this board is pretty knowledgeable.. knowledgeable enough to see we are one dimensional at best, and its not due to what offense we are running.

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45 minutes ago, hoosier_exotics said:

We can scheme, x's and o's, try different line ups, blah blah blah.  How many layups we miss a game?airball ft's or little 12' jumpers?  Wide open 3's?  I  know at one point not long ago, statistically we were the worst 3 point shooting team in the history of the Big...  think about that! The worst ever! Something like 25.3%...   we have a good staff! Not above criticism mind you.  But this board is pretty knowledgeable.. knowledgeable enough to see we are one dimensional at best, and its not due to what offense we are running.

You don't think being the worst 3 point shooting Big Ten team in the KenPom era might be a symptom of the offense we are running?

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41 minutes ago, hoosier_exotics said:

We can scheme, x's and o's, try different line ups, blah blah blah.  How many layups we miss a game?airball ft's or little 12' jumpers?  Wide open 3's?  I  know at one point not long ago, statistically we were the worst 3 point shooting team in the history of the Big...  think about that! The worst ever! Something like 25.3%...   we have a good staff! Not above criticism mind you.  But this board is pretty knowledgeable.. knowledgeable enough to see we are one dimensional at best, and its not due to what offense we are running.

No doubt we are a terrible shooting team,  but my eyes tell me that very few of these players are shooting with confidence.  I'm not smart enough to know whether it is coaches telling them to hesitate in order to look inside or some other reason. Just look at Rob.  He shot much better earlier in the year, but since he has returned from concussion protocol he has not shot the ball very well.  

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2 minutes ago, Maedhros said:

You don't think being the worst 3 point shooting Big Ten team in the KenPom era might have something to do with the offense we are running?

Absolutely not.  Its about making a friggen shot when you have the opportunity.  We get plenty looks... 

Look at our % when we win.  Its pretty decent.  When we lose its horrible...  inconsistent streaky shooters is what we have... 

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1 minute ago, hoosier_exotics said:

Absolutely not.  Its about making a friggen shot when you have the opportunity.  We get plenty looks... 

We rank in the 320's out of 353 Division I schools in 3 point attempts, attempts per game, and attempt rate. No, we don't get ourselves plenty of looks.

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1 minute ago, Maedhros said:

We rank in the 320's out of 353 Division I schools in 3 point attempts, attempts per game, and attempt rate. No, we don't get ourselves plenty of looks.

I have to dissagree with that.  We get a LOT of good looks, its the attempts we dont get.  There are usually 2 or 3 open 3's that could be taken on about every possesion, but we look like a kid that just watched their dog get hit by a car then pee a little down our leg and drive into 4 defenders for a turnover.

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7 minutes ago, 3Ballin said:

I have to dissagree with that.  We get a LOT of good looks, its the attempts we dont get.  There are usually 2 or 3 open 3's that could be taken on about every possesion, but we look like a kid that just watched their dog get hit by a car then pee a little down our leg and drive into 4 defenders for a turnover.

True story! The looks are there, kids arent taking them.. its the same looks we are giving other teams. Difference is they actually pull the trigger and hit them

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3 minutes ago, southsidehoosier said:

The opportunities for 3 pt shots are there but no one seems confident to put them up in rhythm. It seems like so many of our 3 pt shots come in the last 5-8 seconds in a desperation attempt. I don't have stats to back that up, just from what I can see with my own eyes. 

I don't have the stats either, but I would say you are correct.  This the shot clock era.  I see so many open looks that are not taken and then the shot clock winds down and a "Hail Mary" goes up.

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There is just nobody on this team that is a knockdown shooter.  Honestly when I am watching a game, I am not confident when anyone on the team takes a wide open shot from outside of 10 feet.  It makes it very difficult to run an offense without shooters.

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First off, every coach on that sideline knows more about basketball than me (and I'd wager everyone else on this board), but it's clear the offense being employed just isn't fun to watch or effective with the players we have.  Obviously, something has to change - either adjust the offense (short term) or bring in the right players somehow (longer term).  Also, I thought the defense definitely improved last season and was looking pretty good at the very beginning of this season, but at this point I'd have to call it mediocre.

The fact that the offense looked so much better in the early games compared to now is somewhat puzzling.  I think that better teams, better coaches, and enough scouting data evolved into an easy blueprint on how to disrupt us.  That makes things much harder and the players and staff couldn't/didn't make proper adjustments.

Finally, perhaps this team is so much like the Crean teams: When they're hitting, they look fantastic but when they're not it's a train wreck.  The one difference is that for whatever reason(s), we just don't shoot the ball well with any kind of consistency and IMO the winning teams under Crean did have those type of shooters.  Beyond that, I don't know what to think.

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1 hour ago, MSHoosier said:

No doubt we are a terrible shooting team,  but my eyes tell me that very few of these players are shooting with confidence.  I'm not smart enough to know whether it is coaches telling them to hesitate in order to look inside or some other reason. Just look at Rob.  He shot much better earlier in the year, but since he has returned from concussion protocol he has not shot the ball very well.  

Yes, there is shooting with rhythm.  There is also be fast, but not in a hurry.  Kids got to make basketball plays.  There are few kids on this team that can see two passes ahead.  That comes with recruiting the right kid.  

With Rob, fatigue is probably setting in a little. 

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7 minutes ago, Zuckerkorn said:

First off, every coach on that sideline knows more about basketball than me (and I'd wager everyone else on this board), but it's clear the offense being employed just isn't fun to watch or effective with the players we have.  Obviously, something has to change - either adjust the offense (short term) or bring in the right players somehow (longer term).  Also, I thought the defense definitely improved last season and was looking pretty good at the very beginning of this season, but at this point I'd have to call it mediocre.

The fact that the offense looked so much better in the early games compared to now is somewhat puzzling.  I think that better teams, better coaches, and enough scouting data evolved into an easy blueprint on how to disrupt us.  That makes things much harder and the players and staff couldn't/didn't make proper adjustments.

Finally, perhaps this team is so much like the Crean teams: When they're hitting, they look fantastic but when they're not it's a train wreck.  The one difference is that for whatever reason(s), we just don't shoot the ball well with any kind of consistency and IMO the winning teams under Crean did have those type of shooters.  Beyond that, I don't know what to think.

This is an offense that gets everyone touches, it creates open shots and exposes mismatches.  The droughts are plane and simple bad shots or missed open shots.  Bad shots would be too quick.  

This is a motion offense that is a high bread of inside/out and dribble drive.  Once the corrwct players are here it will take off. 

This is why I cant understand the hesitation on the Bloomington kids who is supposed to be a light out shooter and play maker (never seen him play personally)

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8 minutes ago, rico said:

I don't have the stats either, but I would say you are correct.  This the shot clock era.  I see so many open looks that are not taken and then the shot clock winds down and a "Hail Mary" goes up.

I really think this is a function of how they are coached on offense.  The players did this all last season too.  All the evidence indicates that Archie wants to strictly limit three point attempts.  Before the season started, how many times did he say “this team isn’t going to take a lot of threes, they’re going to get to the rim and get fouled”?  The first option in this offense is to always pound the ball inside.

Look at Anderson, who we brought in to be a shooter.  When he was getting minutes before conference play started, he was shooting with some confidence (7/20 in 9 games).  But it seemed like every time he pulled the trigger on a three, he’d get chewed out/benched.  Now he’s 0/6 on threes since before Christmas.  There’s a reason these kids have no confidence shooting the ball.

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3 minutes ago, FW_Hoosier said:

I really think this is a function of how they are coached on offense.  The players did this all last season too.  All the evidence indicates that Archie wants to strictly limit three point attempts.  Before the season started, how many times did he say “this team isn’t going to take a lot of threes, they’re going to get to the rim and get fouled”?  The first option in this offense is to always pound the ball inside.

Look at Anderson, who we brought in to be a shooter.  When he was getting minutes before conference play started, he was shooting with some confidence (7/20 in 9 games).  But it seemed like every time he pulled the trigger on a three, he’d get chewed out/benched.  Now he’s 0/6 on threes since before Christmas.  There’s a reason these kids have no confidence shooting the ball.

I have no counter to your thoughts there.  But I also heard Arch talk umpteen times on transition offense.  

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8 hours ago, Fiveoutofsix said:

This is an offense that gets everyone touches, it creates open shots and exposes mismatches.  The droughts are plane and simple bad shots or missed open shots.  Bad shots would be too quick.  

This is a motion offense that is a high bread of inside/out and dribble drive.  Once the corrwct players are here it will take off. 

This is why I cant understand the hesitation on the Bloomington kids who is supposed to be a light out shooter and play maker (never seen him play personally)

There is no question we lack shooters - especially from deep.  How different would last years team been if Blackmon had stayed?  This team has no shooters but I'd wager every player in the starting line up had at least one 3 pt attempt - I don't think that should happen unless you are a good shooting team across the board.  It maybe what Archie wants, but like you say, we don't have the personnel.

As far as this offense being a motion offense, if it is, it's not a very good one.  Lots of standing in the corners, lack of screens and often if a screen is set it's not used well or ignored completely. 

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Look their kids ! I am sure they are reading or hearing what is being wrote about them. They. Know we as fans have no faith in them making shots. So they pass them up for something they hope will be a high % shot. The only way for them to come out of this is get in the gym shoot shoot and then shoot some more. Get confident in their own shot. Then come out and prove you can make the shots! It amazes me what a poor passing team we are. We throw bouch passes to our big men at are below the knees. We don’t pass a guy open. When we try to pass the ball around the top of the key it’s a nonchalant floating pass which the receiver doesn’t come to get the ball. We are a fundamentally poor team. It’s hard at this stage for Archie to break those bad habits. 

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16 minutes ago, FW_Hoosier said:

I really think this is a function of how they are coached on offense.  The players did this all last season too.  All the evidence indicates that Archie wants to strictly limit three point attempts.  Before the season started, how many times did he say “this team isn’t going to take a lot of threes, they’re going to get to the rim and get fouled”?  The first option in this offense is to always pound the ball inside.

Look at Anderson, who we brought in to be a shooter.  When he was getting minutes before conference play started, he was shooting with some confidence (7/20 in 9 games).  But it seemed like every time he pulled the trigger on a three, he’d get chewed out/benched.  Now he’s 0/6 on threes since before Christmas.  There’s a reason these kids have no confidence shooting the ball.

Coaches know what that have.  Archie wants the best shot possible.  The identity of this team was utlize Morgan as much as possible.  They are undersized so they also want to get the other teams bigs in foul trouble. 

Anderson pulled had more to do with defense than offense.  He also would take some shots where the ball clearly had a reversal option.  

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My HoF HS coach always told me that being predictable will get you beat.  Hence we would show different things every game.  And that is on both ends.  Sure, we had our base offense and defense.  But we had plenty of wrinkles that we would throw in there.  Transition?  Throw a press out there to get easy baskets.  How about some set plays in the half court offense when a basket is required without calling a TO?  

I think we all know, including Archie, that we are not a perimeter team right now.  Do something to generate offense.

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I am not trying to beat a dead horse here, but here are the losing streak comparisons between Crean and Miller. I know IU is no Dayton, but Archie was doing good things while he was there. His teams were always the ones that you did not want to face in the tourney. 

I was curious about his losing streaks at Dayton.

Archie was there 6 seasons .......1st season 4 losses in a row.

                                                          2nd season 3 losses in a row.

                                                          3rd season 4 losses in a row, #25 ranking and NCAA tourney

                                                         4th season never lost 2 in a row all season, #22 ranking and NCAA tourney

                                                          5th season lost 2 in a row, #15 ranking, Conference League Champs, NCAA tourney

                                                           6th season lost 3 in a row, Conference League Champs, NCAA tourney

Crean was at IU 9 seasons.....1st season, loss 10 games in a row AND 11 games in a row in one season

                                                     2nd season, loss 11 games in a row

                                                     3rd season, loss 9 in a row

                                                     several other seasons of 3 in a row 

                                                     9th season loss 5 in a row.....

I don't know what else to say......

 

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