Jump to content

Exposing Archie's outdated offensive ideology.


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 157
  • Created
  • Last Reply
16 hours ago, ADegenerate said:

It's pretty simple. We don't take enough and he doesn't recruit a roster that's built around shooting. Check his A10 stats. They're always near the bottom in attempts. Check his FT % they're always shooting poorly. Check his teams assists rankings, very mediocre. Check his teams TO's, always very high. A 3 point shot is worth more for nearly every team in the country. Even for this roster.

Look at purdue's conference shooting 1st in attempts and 1st in %. Michigan is second in attempts. 1/2. MSU shot 40% and won last year. I've explained UM's system and they won the year before. That's the game today. 

Why did Newkirk's shooting plummet? Why did Devonte's? Why has Fitzner been ruined? Why have Rob and Devonte shot more 2's than 3's when they have terrible short game / midgames? They're in the 30's but valuable 3 point shooters. 36/38. Why does Romeo who has a solid stroke shooting in the 20's? Why is Damezi in the 20's? 

There isn't a shooter coming in the class either. Aarman shoots around 38 in HS which won't transition as highly in college. 

The type of player he recruits is the tough nosed type of player and not skill based. It's why his system shoots poorly from the line and it's why his teams always TO high and assist average at best. You can cherry pick games where we shot and hit a lot of 3's but all your doing is ignoring the totality and general approach of the system and looking at outliers. 

The games played on the court and not on spread sheets but you simply can't ignore the math that 1.05-1.07 points won't cut it at all in todays game. In the A-10 he can develop players and out coach A-10 coaches better than they could but he's playing in the big 10 where every roster has players that can bail the offense out late in the clock with 3's. When you score poorly and face the talent / coaching that's in the BIG 10 it's no surprise at all that he's 13-18 in conference play. We're losing Morgan / Romeo and maybe devonte and/or smith. Anderson is nowhere near ready to contribute. Jake isn't either. Trayce doesn't = Morgan and Hunter won't = Romeo. It's just poor all around. I don't even care anymore because the program is garbage. Give him 5, 6, 7 years but I'm telling you the system is bogus. If he could recruit like Cal or Coach K where his teams are just levels and levels ahead physically and athletically then sure this system would work but he won't. I'm assuming that Sean runs the same type of stuff at Arizona and he's the better recruiter. How many FF's? 0. 

 

I've tried to make  similar points elsewhere, but you have stated it much better than I. I would make one other point. Other  than the OSU game ,  when has this defense during Big Ten games turned the other team over for easy scores. When you can't shoot,  walking the ball up and playing slow, methodical defense won't work.  If you look at teams that are successful nowadays, they pressure the ball outside the arch and deny passing lanes.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 hours ago, ADegenerate said:

It's pretty simple. We don't take enough and he doesn't recruit a roster that's built around shooting. Check his A10 stats. They're always near the bottom in attempts. Check his FT % they're always shooting poorly. Check his teams assists rankings, very mediocre. Check his teams TO's, always very high. A 3 point shot is worth more for nearly every team in the country. Even for this roster.

Look at purdue's conference shooting 1st in attempts and 1st in %. Michigan is second in attempts. 1/2. MSU shot 40% and won last year. I've explained UM's system and they won the year before. That's the game today. 

Why did Newkirk's shooting plummet? Why did Devonte's? Why has Fitzner been ruined? Why have Rob and Devonte shot more 2's than 3's when they have terrible short game / midgames? They're in the 30's but valuable 3 point shooters. 36/38. Why does Romeo who has a solid stroke shooting in the 20's? Why is Damezi in the 20's? 

There isn't a shooter coming in the class either. Aarman shoots around 38 in HS which won't transition as highly in college. 

The type of player he recruits is the tough nosed type of player and not skill based. It's why his system shoots poorly from the line and it's why his teams always TO high and assist average at best. You can cherry pick games where we shot and hit a lot of 3's but all your doing is ignoring the totality and general approach of the system and looking at outliers. 

The games played on the court and not on spread sheets but you simply can't ignore the math that 1.05-1.07 points won't cut it at all in todays game. In the A-10 he can develop players and out coach A-10 coaches better than they could but he's playing in the big 10 where every roster has players that can bail the offense out late in the clock with 3's. When you score poorly and face the talent / coaching that's in the BIG 10 it's no surprise at all that he's 13-18 in conference play. We're losing Morgan / Romeo and maybe devonte and/or smith. Anderson is nowhere near ready to contribute. Jake isn't either. Trayce doesn't = Morgan and Hunter won't = Romeo. It's just poor all around. I don't even care anymore because the program is garbage. Give him 5, 6, 7 years but I'm telling you the system is bogus. If he could recruit like Cal or Coach K where his teams are just levels and levels ahead physically and athletically then sure this system would work but he won't. I'm assuming that Sean runs the same type of stuff at Arizona and he's the better recruiter. How many FF's? 0. 

 

Not sure about the reference to Dayton. Granted the following is just from his last year there, the 2016-17 season, however:

That team was second in the A-10 in PPG at 76.5 and scored 1.39 PPS. They led the league in adjusted FG% at 54.4% and 3P% at 38.7%. They were middle of the pack in 3P attempts at 21, but were one of only four teams to average 8+ makes per game. The other three attempted 23-27 per game.

That Dayton team had three players shooting over 40% from three (none were +40% the prior season) and four more shooting over 35% (one at 39.9%).

Atlantic 10 Team 3-Point Shooting Statistics - 2016-17

Conference:

3-point Field Goal Percentage LEADERS

  PER GAME TOTAL   ADJ
RK TEAM GP PPG 3PM 3PA 3PM 3PA 3P% 2PM 2PA 2P% PPS FG%
1 Dayton 31 76.5 8.1 21 251 649 .387 551 1056 .522 1.39 .544
2 George Washington 33 69.8 7.9 21 260 700 .371 506 1118 .453 1.27 .493
3 La Salle 30 75.5 8.5 23 255 700 .364 506 966 .524 1.36 .533
4 St. Bonaventure 32 76.8 6.3 18 201 577 .348 624 1287 .485 1.32 .497
5 Saint Louis 33 61.4 7.0 20 230 672 .342 470 1061 .443 1.17 .470
  Richmond 32 74.1 7.8 23 250 731 .342 601 1095 .549 1.30 .535
7 Davidson 32 73.8 9.1 27 292 856 .341 522 1005 .519 1.27 .516
8 Rhode Island 33 73.4 6.3 18 207 609 .340 653 1292 .505 1.27 .507
9 George Mason 33 74.6 5.4 16 177 525 .337 682 1377 .495 1.29 .498
10 VCU 34 74.7 5.8 17 197 589 .334 719 1396 .515 1.28 .511
  Duquesne 32 70.5 7.1 21 226 677 .334 559 1158 .483 1.23 .489
  Fordham 32 65.3 8.3 25 264 791 .334 477 991 .481 1.17 .490
13 Saint Joseph's 31 69.5 5.6 17 174 537 .324 581 1271 .457 1.19 .466
14 UMass 33 71.8 7.1 24 234 789 .297 613 1150 .533 1.22 .497

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, 13th&Jackson said:

Not sure about the reference to Dayton. Granted the following is just from his last year there, the 2016-17 season, however:

That team was second in the A-10 in PPG at 76.5 and scored 1.39 PPS. They led the league in adjusted FG% at 54.4% and 3P% at 38.7%. They were middle of the pack in 3P attempts at 21, but were one of only four teams to average 8+ makes per game. The other three attempted 23-27 per game.

That Dayton team had three players shooting over 40% from three (none were +40% the prior season) and four more shooting over 35% (one at 39.9%).

Atlantic 10 Team 3-Point Shooting Statistics - 2016-17

Conference:

3-point Field Goal Percentage LEADERS

  PER GAME TOTAL   ADJ
RK TEAM GP PPG 3PM 3PA 3PM 3PA 3P% 2PM 2PA 2P% PPS FG%
1 Dayton 31 76.5 8.1 21 251 649 .387 551 1056 .522 1.39 .544
2 George Washington 33 69.8 7.9 21 260 700 .371 506 1118 .453 1.27 .493
3 La Salle 30 75.5 8.5 23 255 700 .364 506 966 .524 1.36 .533
4 St. Bonaventure 32 76.8 6.3 18 201 577 .348 624 1287 .485 1.32 .497
5 Saint Louis 33 61.4 7.0 20 230 672 .342 470 1061 .443 1.17 .470
  Richmond 32 74.1 7.8 23 250 731 .342 601 1095 .549 1.30 .535
7 Davidson 32 73.8 9.1 27 292 856 .341 522 1005 .519 1.27 .516
8 Rhode Island 33 73.4 6.3 18 207 609 .340 653 1292 .505 1.27 .507
9 George Mason 33 74.6 5.4 16 177 525 .337 682 1377 .495 1.29 .498
10 VCU 34 74.7 5.8 17 197 589 .334 719 1396 .515 1.28 .511
  Duquesne 32 70.5 7.1 21 226 677 .334 559 1158 .483 1.23 .489
  Fordham 32 65.3 8.3 25 264 791 .334 477 991 .481 1.17 .490
13 Saint Joseph's 31 69.5 5.6 17 174 537 .324 581 1271 .457 1.19 .466
14 UMass 33 71.8 7.1 24 234 789 .297 613 1150 .533 1.22 .497

 

That's a great post. I had no idea that tool was available. That's much closer to an optimal model but there's still tons of problems with it. Let's look at UM, UVA, NOVA, and Dayton/IU. All three play a slow tempo. Look at the discrepancy below between 2's and 3's. UM / Nova shoot well over 40% of their shots from 3 as well and assist the ball highly well to make the approach even more balanced.

 

There's another glaring problem with that 2 point oriented system that Archie runs...his teams don't rebound it particularly well. If you want even further proof at why I can't stand this approach just look at Virginia. They run an extremely slow tempo and score the ball extremely efficiently but that don't take any three's at all and they rack up pedestrian numbers on their 2's. They only scored 1.00 points on 2's last season when they got slapped up by the 16 seed. It's a terrible approach and it leads to upsets and poor tournament runs. If you're only going to take 30-35% of your shots from deep you better have a ridiculously athletic team that can rebound like maniacs like the UNC from 17 or you better have NBA talent like Duke/UK. If not what are you really trying to do here? Play like Wisconsin / Virginia? Slow tempo, no balanced attack, no elite athleticism / professionals? It's just poor. Look at Gonzaga. They can't get over the line either because they only shoot in the low to mid 30 of their attempts at the 3 point line. How many samples do I need to give? The year they lost to UNC and were 37-1 they took 32% of their shots from 3. They ran into a superior athletic team and shot 30% from two and 41% from three in the final but lost the game because they took the wrong approach and opted to shot 59 2's and only 19 3s.

That 2016-2017 team. 

1.03 on 2's.

1.15 on 3's.

1.32 AST/TO

38% shots three's.

-------------------------------------

Nova 15/16:

1.15 on 2's.

1.09 on 3's.

1.45 AST/TO

42% three's

-----------------------------------------

Nova 17/18:

1.18 on 2's.

1.20 on 3's.

1.61 AST/TO

47% three's.

----------------------------------------

UM 17/18:

1.10 on 2's.

1.07 on 3's.

1.62 AST/TO 

43% three's.

----------------------------------------

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm done but remember this post. 

Tennessee will massively underwhelm in the tournament (30% shots from 3).  

Virginia won't make the final four (37% attempts from 3 and a poor 2 point %).

Kentucky won't make a run (30%). 

UM/NOVA will make runs like they always do (39% for UM / 53% from Nova).

Keep your eye on Marquette...(41% and extremely balanced). 

Watch Purdue as well. (44%)

Duke will win the title with ease. Elite elite talent and shoot 37% of their shots from 3.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

41 minutes ago, NotIThatLives said:

I'm wondering if they're just holding race out for another red shirt?

Here is my concern with that. He was cleared to play weeks ago. He did have a setback with the flu, but he was still cleared. As unpredictable as the NCAA can be I could see them not granting the medical redshirt since he will have a large percentage of games where did not play due to coach’s decision not injury. 

I might be wrong, but I don’t think you can apply for the medical hardship year until after what would otherwise be your last year.  So it might be a couple years before we know how this plays out  

Also, if we have the roster turnover we anticipate it would be nice to get him some minutes this year. We could be looking at very few returning minutes next year. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.




×
×
  • Create New...