Challenging two current narratives

[MPM]

My biggest worry about CAM is that he’s no longer recruiting 3 star types of players that will come into the program with a chip on their shoulder because most weren’t heavily recruited by power conference teams. I was curious what the recruiting rankings were of the players that committed to Dayton while he was there, so using Rivals as my baseline, out of the 19 recruits (including McKinley Wright) who committed from 2012-2017, only 2 were ranked as 4 stars. The remaining 17 were 3 or under. It’s a lot easier for a defensive minded coach to get through to these types of players because (A) most will be there for 4 years, (B) the NBA is a long shot, so they need to prove that they can contribute in all areas of the game, and (C) the play with something to prove to all the “bigger” schools who didn’t recruit them or think they were good enough.

Obviously, CAM is no longer recruiting the “chip on their shoulders” player for the most part. The 5 star and high level 4 star athletes nowadays are all offense, offense, offense and then defense. They know the NBA is an offense driven league where the GM would rather have the next James “No D” Harden versus a Bruce Bowen type of player. These players are playing with the NBA on their mind. They don’t have to buy into exerting max effort on D or even showing that they have a basketball IQ on D. Most know that they just have to get through the 1, maybe 2 years in college and then it’s off to making money in the NBA. 

I’m all for giving CAM time to prove he’s the guy for the job and sincerely hope he is, but he may need to become more flexible and adaptable to his systems based off the players he’s now recruiting. 

[CrimsonV]

17 minutes ago, MPM said:

My biggest worry about CAM is that he’s no longer recruiting 3 star types of players that will come into the program with a chip on their shoulder because most weren’t heavily recruited by power conference teams. I was curious what the recruiting rankings were of the players that committed to Dayton while he was there, so using Rivals as my baseline, out of the 19 recruits (including McKinley Wright) who committed from 2012-2017, only 2 were ranked as 4 stars. The remaining 17 were 3 or under. It’s a lot easier for a defensive minded coach to get through to these types of players because (A) most will be there for 4 years, (B) the NBA is a long shot, so they need to prove that they can contribute in all areas of the game, and (C) the play with something to prove to all the “bigger” schools who didn’t recruit them or think they were good enough.

Obviously, CAM is no longer recruiting the “chip on their shoulders” player for the most part. The 5 star and high level 4 star athletes nowadays are all offense, offense, offense and then defense. They know the NBA is an offense driven league where the GM would rather have the next James “No D” Harden versus a Bruce Bowen type of player. These players are playing with the NBA on their mind. They don’t have to buy into exerting max effort on D or even showing that they have a basketball IQ on D. Most know that they just have to get through the 1, maybe 2 years in college and then it’s off to making money in the NBA. 

I’m all for giving CAM time to prove he’s the guy for the job and sincerely hope he is, but he may need to become more flexible and adaptable to his systems based off the players he’s now recruiting. 

 

[MPM]

Well he’s not going to have 8-10 players like an Armaan Franklin or Jake Forrester here like he did at Dayton. That was my initial point I was trying to make. He’s going to have more talented players here compared to Dayton who might be playing with the NBA on the mind versus IU on the mind. I truly hope he succeeds because I’m ready for IU to become relevant every year again.

[FW_Hoosier]

2 hours ago, Brass Cannon said:

UConn won it a few years ago holding their final 3 opponents all under 55 points and not scoring 64. 

The issue that so many of these slow teams is that they have to have a lead because they aren’t built for a comeback. But there’s no reason you can’t win it all

Don’t think the flukiest champ of the last 20 years is really the model you want to follow when building your program... Especially when the coach of that team got fired 4 years after that run.  It might be possible to win that way, but it’s not a recipe for the consistent success we want to see at IU.  Have to be able to score to run deep in the tournament on a regular basis.  

[ADegenerate]

20 minutes ago, FW_Hoosier said:

Don’t think the flukiest champ of the last 20 years is really the model you want to follow when building your program... Especially when the coach of that team got fired 4 years after that run.  It might be possible to win that way, but it’s not a recipe for the consistent success we want to see at IU.  Have to be able to score to run deep in the tournament on a regular basis.  

They also had scoring freaks at guard with Napier and Kemba. Napier scored 18 and shot over 40% on three. I don't think archie likes scoring PG's.

[Kodos]

16 hours ago, FW_Hoosier said:

With the talk of Archie’s tournament success at Dayton, I went back and checked it out for the first time since before we hired him.

2013-2014

W vs. 6 OSU 60-59

W vs. 3 Syracuse 55-53

W vs. 10 Stanford 82-72

L vs. 1 Florida 52-62

2014-2015

W vs. 11 Boise State 56-55

W vs. 6 Providence 66-53

L vs. 3 Oklahoma 66-72

2015-2016

L vs. 10 Syracuse 51-70

2016-2017

L vs. 10 Wichita State 58-64

Small sample size, but failing to score more than 60 points in 6/9 tournament games, and only scoring more than 70 in one game (against Stanford) doesn’t make me feel very optimistic about the offense even when it’s being executed correctly.

You may notice the low scores, but I tend to focus on the W's against higher-seeded teams.

[IowaHoosierFan]

15 hours ago, Steubenhoosier said:

You tend to make posts based on generalizations without having done the research to back your opinion. Once someone refutes your points with facts or statistics, you tend to disappear from the conversation. Usually, your unsubstantiated opinions slant towards the negative.

If I didn’t know any better, I would think that you have an agenda 

I have no agenda, i usually only post during day at work and when i get to watch the games if they are in the evening. Otherwise i usually don't get on and post in the evening, even if i am part of a conversation.  Which why when i login, i look the little bell in the top to see who responded and then respond back.  And when i am wrong i also tend to admit my mistake, like with the Dayton generalization of 1 to 2 teams when its more like 3 on average.  And yes, most of my comments are generalizations, since i am no an expert on most things basketball.  But i no longer have any faith in CAM.  Doesn't mean he won't be better in the next couple years but that doesn't mean i can't make my own decision on what i think of the guy.  Doesn't mean i have a agenda, just mean i don't like what this coach is doing.  I don't like the product he has on the floor and i think he is in over his head in the Big10.  Doesn't mean i am right about anything or i have any facts other than we are not winning games to tell me he isn't going to be successful.  I hope i am wrong and we win and win and win.  But i don't see it.

And since you don't really know anything about me, please don't throw stuff out there about me having an agenda.  I have been a remember of the previous site for a long time and as soon as this new site was created.  Just because i don't drink the cool-aid and have a negative opinion of this coach doesn't mean i don't want the same thing you do.  I just don't want to wait another 3 years to find out he is not a good enough coach.

[PoHoosier]

10 hours ago, IowaHoosierFan said:

I have no agenda, i usually only post during day at work and when i get to watch the games if they are in the evening. Otherwise i usually don't get on and post in the evening, even if i am part of a conversation.  Which why when i login, i look the little bell in the top to see who responded and then respond back.  And when i am wrong i also tend to admit my mistake, like with the Dayton generalization of 1 to 2 teams when its more like 3 on average.  And yes, most of my comments are generalizations, since i am no an expert on most things basketball.  But i no longer have any faith in CAM.  Doesn't mean he won't be better in the next couple years but that doesn't mean i can't make my own decision on what i think of the guy.  Doesn't mean i have a agenda, just mean i don't like what this coach is doing.  I don't like the product he has on the floor and i think he is in over his head in the Big10.  Doesn't mean i am right about anything or i have any facts other than we are not winning games to tell me he isn't going to be successful.  I hope i am wrong and we win and win and win.  But i don't see it.

And since you don't really know anything about me, please don't throw stuff out there about me having an agenda.  I have been a remember of the previous site for a long time and as soon as this new site was created.  Just because i don't drink the cool-aid and have a negative opinion of this coach doesn't mean i don't want the same thing you do.  I just don't want to wait another 3 years to find out he is not a good enough coach.

Fair take.

There seems to be levels of discontent with CAM.

The first level: wants to see IU and CAM win, but have their reservations seeing it happen.

The embittered second level: torn between their love for the university and suffering 20 years mediocrity.  Could easily flip between level 1 and level 3.

The Dakich level: cynical, edgy, their opinion of their opinion matters above all else.  Would rather IU lose because 'their guy' wasn't hired.  Wants to come back at the fanbase with a 'told you so, cretins'.

[FKIM01]

Iowa, with all due respect, IU is almost compelled to give Archie a full recruiting cycle to prove his case. Otherwise, the administration would rightly face the criticism that they potentially gave up on the next K/Beilien/Jay Wright by being too impatient.  His pedigree and body of work demands patience this early into his tenure.

You may ultimately be right (I sincerely doubt it, but no one knows for certain at this stage), but the risk/reward to burning down the program yet again less than two years after starting over is simply too great and I think IU would REALLY struggle to find any quality takers if a coach of Archie's caliber gets chewed up and spit out less than two years into a 7-year contract.

Ain't gonna happen. Too many historical examples of some of the best coaches struggling early but ultimately rewarding the patience of their respective schools.  Sure, some coaches with simpler schemes can be successful quicker but plenty of examples of the opposite.

[IowaHoosierFan]

6 hours ago, FKIM01 said:

Iowa, with all due respect, IU is almost compelled to give Archie a full recruiting cycle to prove his case. Otherwise, the administration would rightly face the criticism that they potentially gave up on the next K/Beilien/Jay Wright by being too impatient.  His pedigree and body of work demands patience this early into his tenure.

You may ultimately be right (I sincerely doubt it, but no one knows for certain at this stage), but the risk/reward to burning down the program yet again less that two years after starting over is simply too great and I think IU would REALLY struggle to find any quality takers if a coach of Archie's caliber gets chewed up and spit out less than two years into a 7-year contract.

Ain't gonna happen. Too many historical examples of some of the best coaches struggling early but ultimately rewarding the patience of their respective schools.  Sure, some coaches with simpler schemes can be successful quicker but plenty of examples of the opposite.

Yes i know.  I mentioned in another thread that he will get 5 years before they do anything because of his contract.  For me, the shine has worn off and what i currently see is a subpar coach.  I could be and probably am wrong but i think he is in over his head in the B1G and yes i know its only been 2 years and most of the team isn't his.  But i have to go by my gut and that is what it tell me.  I do appreciate everyone else opinion though.

[FW_Hoosier]

7 hours ago, FKIM01 said:

Iowa, with all due respect, IU is almost compelled to give Archie a full recruiting cycle to prove his case. Otherwise, the administration would rightly face the criticism that they potentially gave up on the next K/Beilien/Jay Wright by being too impatient.  His pedigree and body of work demands patience this early into his tenure.

You may ultimately be right (I sincerely doubt it, but no one knows for certain at this stage), but the risk/reward to burning down the program yet again less that two years after starting over is simply too great and I think IU would REALLY struggle to find any quality takers if a coach of Archie's caliber gets chewed up and spit out less than two years into a 7-year contract.

Ain't gonna happen. Too many historical examples of some of the best coaches struggling early but ultimately rewarding the patience of their respective schools.  Sure, some coaches with simpler schemes can be successful quicker but plenty of examples of the opposite.

This.  I don’t buy the argument that “We suck right now, so he’s clearly the next Coach K!”  But even if he isn’t the guy, it would be so much worse for the program to jump the gun and can him after only 2/3 years, especially when he’s killing it in recruiting right now.

In Year 4, he’ll have seniors Durham, Smith (maybe), and Moore (maybe); juniors Phinisee, Hunter, Anderson, and Forrester; sophomores TJD, Brooks (hopefully), and Franklin; and a freshman class that could include Love, Morton, and Leal.  That would be a very talented and experienced roster, all of whom will have played under Archie for their entire careers.  Gotta give him a chance to show what he can do with that team.

[Steubenhoosier]

5 hours ago, IowaHoosierFan said:

Yes i know.  I mentioned in another thread that he will get 5 years before they do anything because of his contract.  For me, the shine has worn off and what i currently see is a subpar coach.  I could be and probably am wrong but i think he is in over his head in the B1G and yes i know its only been 2 years and most of the team isn't his.  But i have to go by my gut and that is what it tell me.  I do appreciate everyone else opinion though.

Someone posted on Facebook these KenPom numbers....

IU last year

Schedule strength: 54th

Offensive efficiency : 92nd

Defensive efficiency : 65th

 

IU this year:

Schedule strength : 8th

Offensive efficiency : 72nd

Defensive efficiency : 34th

If these numbers are true, I don't have the time to look them up to verify, but also don't think this specific poster would fudge on them, then they bear out that Archie is not over his head, but that his team is performing better versus much better competition.

[FKIM01]

16 minutes ago, Steubenhoosier said:

Someone posted on Facebook these KenPom numbers....

IU last year

Schedule strength: 54th

Offensive efficiency : 92nd

Defensive efficiency : 65th

 

IU this year:

Schedule strength : 8th

Offensive efficiency : 72nd

Defensive efficiency : 34th

If these numbers are true, I don't have the time to look them up to verify, but also don't think this specific poster would fudge on them, then they bear out that Archie is not over his head, but that his team is performing better versus much better competition.

...and taking those numbers at face value, it also backs up that he focused on defense first as has been reported.

[IowaHoosierFan]

6 hours ago, Steubenhoosier said:

Someone posted on Facebook these KenPom numbers....

IU last year

Schedule strength: 54th

Offensive efficiency : 92nd

Defensive efficiency : 65th

 

IU this year:

Schedule strength : 8th

Offensive efficiency : 72nd

Defensive efficiency : 34th

If these numbers are true, I don't have the time to look them up to verify, but also don't think this specific poster would fudge on them, then they bear out that Archie is not over his head, but that his team is performing better versus much better competition.

As I said.  It's just my gut and eye test.  I don't like what I see but I understand that he is going to be here for 5 years.  I an just but happy and will contribute to criticize him until he does better.  And he needs to do better

[rico]

7 minutes ago, IowaHoosierFan said:

As I said.  It's just my gut and eye test.  I don't like what I see but I understand that he is going to be here for 5 years.  I an just but happy and will contribute to criticize him until he does better.  And he needs to do better

I learned a long time ago to take metrics with a grain of salt.  They do tell a story, but they don't give you the whole book.  To me the only metric that matters is wins and losses.  

[Maedhros]

18 hours ago, Steubenhoosier said:

If these numbers are true, I don't have the time to look them up to verify, but also don't think this specific poster would fudge on them, then they bear out that Archie is not over his head, but that his team is performing better versus much better competition.

The numbers are accurate, but mostly a testament to the difference in the Big Ten this season over last. We currently have the 9th ranked SOS, but five other Big Ten teams - Purdue, Wisconsin, Penn St, Illinois, Michigan St - are ahead of us. Nebraska, Rutgers and Minnesota are in the top 20, Maryland and Ohio St in the top 25. Iowa, Northwestern and Michigan are all in the top 40. Our non-conference strength of schedule, the part of the season where we were winning games, ranks just 173. I'd feel better about pointing to our current SOS if we were actually winning games against that schedule, but our KenPom ratings have been falling dramatically since the start of conference play.

[13th&Jackson]

16 hours ago, rico said:

I learned a long time ago to take metrics with a grain of salt.  They do tell a story, but they don't give you the whole book.  To me the only metric that matters is wins and losses.  

Metrics/statistics are like a bikini. They reveal a lot but what they hide matters.

[T.K.]

On 2/12/2019 at 3:17 AM, Fundamentals said:

Friends of HSN:

Wanted to speak to two pervasive themes from recent posts. 1) fans are the reason for this mess, or unreasonable; 2) Archie is the problem. 

Regarding fans, IU has had, and always will have, an engaged, rabid following.  Remember, in 49 states...?  To expect fans not to experience frustration in the midst of this current freefall, particularly with the 12-2 start, is to ignore part of what makes Indiana Basketball what it is.  Losing stinks, and I’ve yet to encounter a fan base in any sport who doesn’t get twisted when their team is struggling.  

Regarding Archie, the man needs 4 years minimum before his product can be judged.  The impatience is really tied to the bumbling of the previous coach’s term, who was here about 6 years too long.  In his 3rd season at Dayton, below how his team played.  I’m going down on the Archie ship.  He can and will get it done.  There is no doubt in my mind.  Patience is an annoying concept when things need to change, but Archie has the stones to clean house and revitalize the team attitude this off-season.  Just because he doesn’t whimper to the media, doesn’t mean changes are not coming.  Hang with Archie, friends.

 

 

Most of what was said here is reasonable and accurate, with a couple of big exceptions.  I have a really difficult time understanding the objectivity of a fan, no matter how knowledgeable and dedicated, who claims that Tom Crean was here about six years too long.  So you are saying that IU should have fired the head coach who achieved the school's first number one ranking in 20 years, the first coach to win the Big Ten outright in 20 years?  No matter how you feel about his basketball tactics, sideline demeanor and/or personality/quirky behavior, Tom Crean recruited, developed and led three of IU's four best teams in a 20+ year span.  Other than Mike Davis' surprise 2002 run to the National Championship game, IU did not reach the second weekend of the NCAA tournament between 1995 and 2011.  After taking three years to get the program back on its feet, Crean took three teams to the second weekend of the tournament.  

Is the Sweet 16 the ultimate goal?  Of course not.  But Bob Knight's last Sweet 16 was in 1994.  The Indiana program was on a downward trend during Knight's final six seasons.  Crean had some well documented shortcomings, and he ultimately did not win big enough or consistently enough, but he did better than anyone had done in over 20 years.  His inability to achieve greater or more consistent success can be attributed as much to bad luck (injuries, early departures, difficult tournament draws) as it can to any of his flaws.  To believe otherwise is to not be objective and to dismiss what has taken place over the past several decades.  Fans being impatient because of the "bumbling of the previous coach's term" must not recall that that previous coach guided IU to a 15-3 record in the Big Ten to win it outright and then beat Kentucky in the NCAA tournament just three years ago.  That team had plenty of talent, yes, but it also dealt with a variety of major injuries.  Because of the way that team navigated those injuries and improved, Crean was named the Big Ten Coach of the year.  Calipari thought Crean should've been National Coach of the Year.  IU began Crean's final season, just two years ago, with victories over Kansas and North Carolina.  Unfortunately, the injury bug hit again and that team was forced to play a number of games without four of its best six players (Blackmon, Anunoby, Morgan and Hartman all missed significant time and/or several key games).  Non-objective IU fans likely did not allow those injuries to be used as an excuse, despite that injury riddled squad losing seven games by seven points or less.    

Regarding Archie, no, we cannot make a complete judgment about him yet.  However, I am highly concerned with what I've seen.  I live in Dayton and am very familiar with his teams here.  I heard over and over again how "If he succeeded at Dayton with inferior talent, imagine how well he'll do at IU with significantly greater resources."  That's not always the way things work.  First of all, the Atlantic 10 is nothing close to the Big Ten.  Everyone knows that, but I watched many Dayton games.  Outside of VCU and Rhode Island during Archie's tenure, that conference was largely very weak.  Perhaps he will make the adjustment to the Big Ten in time.  He needs to obtain even more of "his" recruits, but so far it looks like he is in over his head.  Maybe there are other problems within this team that we are not aware of, but there is simply no excuse for the continual horrendous manner in which this team loses.  Falling behind 17-0 at home to Michigan, surrendering 22 unanswered points to Rutgers, trailing virtually start to finish at home to middling Ohio State and Nebraska teams....Those things should not happen.  Yes, Archie's Elite Eight run with Dayton in 2014 was impressive, but it's one tournament.  They were an Aaron Craft in and out at the buzzer from losing to Ohio State in the first round.  Why on Earth people believed Archie was the savior to turn IU into a force was and still is beyond me.  The lack of objectivity of the fan base and alumni is startling.           

[Maedhros]

Ugh. I wish I could like that post many times over. If this is your first post here, I'd like to know where else you've been, as I wish to subscribe to your newsletter.

[PoHoosier]

34 minutes ago, Maedhros said:

Ugh. I wish I could like that post many times over. If this is your first post here, I'd like to know where else you've been, as I wish to subscribe to your newsletter.

He's been around nearly a year, but it's the first post by that handle.  Good analysis.

The majority of criticisms fall on either side of two lines.  Criticism is either too soft/non-existent to over-the-top critical of either the coach or players.  Saying what everyone knows, no one is above criticism and no one is solely at fault for this season's failures.

@T.K. As far as Archie being the savior, I am not sure anyone believed that, yet alone said that.  If so, please correct me.  Humble pie, I like pie....  However, some of the expectations placed on him this year certainly seems to have put him up there.  I believe we were not as good as our 12-2 record at that time.  At the same time, there is no way this team, CAM or the organization should be struggling as we are now.  We knew the B1G was going to be brutal this year.  There is no way anyone believed it would only be at minimum a 4 win or probably at best, a 7 win B1G season.

What everyone seems to take issue with is when the criticism is out of control with no solutions given.  As fans, sadly, there is little we can do other than what we do here - debate.