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Bracket Discussion. Coaching and Tournament Theory - (OPINION / APOLOGY)


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ADegenerate here. It's been a long while since I've lost control of a situation and let it spiral out of control. I made so many mistakes on here and took some pretty serious losses that really really bothered me. I got caught up playing this  'character' that' was a terrible version of myself and that spiraled out of control. It was always going to be unsustainable in the long term. I see now how easy is to get caught up in a persona that isn't based on reality and just feeds on itself negatively. I'm not interested in the attention or proving how smart I am. It's back to basketball for me and good discussion. 

 

I'm going to start over but still with the same unorthodox flair but in a way that I'm happy with and represents me properly. I'm buzzing for the tournament for the first time in 5-6 years. I made an absolute fool of myself  but the basic points remains the same at heart. So here's some satire and @ricoyou were right about what you said. The arrogance of my posts came from the satisfaction of the logic behind what I was saying and how I got there. I was backing myself with confidence and was willing to risk looking stupid if I was wrong.  Sports debates had always been about  'me vs you' and finding out who is right. Not in a personal sense but in a lets test our knowledge out and see who's right way. It was deliberately intended to be be adversarial in nature and part of the game. I don't like how that looked or  how it turned out so I'll start over and do it better this time. Yes, there's a lot of irony in this post and it's intentional.

 

 

This is what I WILL NOT BE DOING ANY MORE. It's a terrible method that I butchered. It's sloppy, condescending, and lazy. I'll post in the thread after the bracket comes out with how I should have done things all along. If Virginia beats some bogus team in the final I'm totally ok with that. If it I'm right and things work out I still look like a jerk. Ignore the thread, take some shots at me, chime in, do whatever you want with it. If I could have my say we'd talk about theory and philosophy and not about me. 

 

I''m absolutely buzzing for this tournament to start and my squads with philosophies and game theories that I vouched for are doing work again! Nova and UM are the pinnacle of what a top data squad looks like and they're winning again. My biggest FRAUD system in UVA had a juicy loss as well.

 

The FRAUDS - Coaches that have good reputations but are frauds.

Tony Bennett - The absolute definition of how I define a fraud. The irony of it all is that he might be the best coach in the world over the past 7 years. He plays a system that I think has won the most games and by the biggest point differential in that frame. Sorry Tony, if it worked like soccer you'd be a hero of mine. Already lost a low scoring game in the ACC tournament. Fraud rating is off the charts and prime for upsets.

Rick Barnes - Great recruiter, always wins games but never plays well at anything important. They do it all well and never anything great. Possibly FF but 0 chance of winning a title.

Tough Nosed Goons - The new face of Goon Ball is Mick Cronin. He'll threaten 30 wins a season and can't escape the second round! The old school goons like Huggins never threatened a title and Frank Martin just had a dream run. I'd also consider hard knock coaches similar to this like Greg Marshall.

Former Frauds - Bo Ryan. Vintage Knight types. 

Second Tier FRAUDS - Coaches I can't wait to see get blown out after making deep runs.

Tom Izzo - The king of the fake elites. If getting there consistently will win you a tittle then why does he constantly get battered by top teams late. Battterrred not just beaten. I had to downgrade him because he's actually adjusted and if I'm being honest the profile fits a team that I would slow into the FF. Fair play to you Tom.

Mark Few - This guy wins 30 games EVERY SEASON and found his way in one final four and one final. His team shot almost 40% from three's and could have won if he played optimally. I do have to give him respect. I'm curious what he does what a decent shooting team. Will he adjust that for the run?

Sean Miller - He's brilliant at getting you a 2 or 3 seed and playing basketball that is kinda good at everything but predictable. He preaches overly controlled efficiency and it's terrible tournament theory.

Minor Frauds

Bill Self - He's the worst of the NBA model coaches and ripped one off to be fair. It works but I'd class him as a minor fraud and the one team blue blood team I'd love to face out of the big 4.

Big Ten -How many have final fours and title loses in a row? That Mattas, Bruce Webbers, JB, Izzo Types.

 

Aww shucks types - The absolute hell zone. The yearly 3-6 seed that always plays respectable ball but does nothing program.

Painter lives there. Bruce Webber and Buzz Williams are good representations. Mike Brey kind of fits in.

 

The Champions - Actually title challengers.

Coach K - Outdone Cal at his own model recently. We'll see if he's gotten better.

Cal - Extremely underrated coach that's mastered the art of having young players buy in. Hasn't gotten a 'fair share' of the titles that his teams deserved.

Roy Williams - If he wins another title this season for me he's the best there's been in my lifetime. He'll found the sweet spot and merging talent, style of play, and patience to wait your turn.

 

The Modern Masters - Absolute Masters of Theory

Jay Wright - You'll never find a more perfect squad than last year's Nova team. They were absolutely perfect in terms of looking at data and saying 'hey, this is what is supposed to work. play like this' They absolutely battered everyone. They're not even very good this year and they keep winning tournaments because they play a tournament theory style. That's by far my favorite team to watch play along with Michgan. 

John Beilein - I started watching his teams in college when he was at West Virginia and his style play matched up with how I think they game should be played. I never thought he'd get the talent to win but his system is PERFECT for making deep runs. I think it lacks a few things to be title favorites but his philosophy is nearly perfect for tournament play. He's more conservative than Jay Wright which is a mistake though.

 

I haven't seen the bracket yet but it's a very underwhelming at the top. There's two serious contenders that I think will batter a Gonzaga or MSU type. If they lose then it's wide open.

 

Big Boys I respect

1) Duke

2) UNC

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Teams that could FF and win if they play each other.

3) Gonzaga

4) Kentucky

5) MSU

-----------------

 

 

 

 

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I’m not a fan of Coach Cal,  he generally has the best talent available until K’s last couple of years- without a player like Davis he’s the poster boy of fraud. 

And any list without Coach K in the  Top tier of college basketball coaches is suspect at best. Just my two cents.

 

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1 minute ago, H00sier said:

I’m not a fan of Coach Cal,  he generally has the best talent available until K’s last couple of years- without a player like Davis he’s the poster boy of fraud. 

And any list without Coach K in the  Top tier of college basketball coaches is suspect at best. Just my two cents.

 

What I love about the game is the complexity and never ending evolution of it. 10 people could say different things and they could all be right depending on how their interpretation was heard. If I had to do an all-time greats list in my life I'd say this is a total evaluation. 

 

1) Coach K

2) Roy Williams.

3) Jay Wright

4) Calhoun

5) Donavan

====

In terms of the modern game and approach and who impressed me the most

1) Roy Williams if he wins this season or  Jay Wright

2) Cal + Coach K. 

 

I'm excited to see where the game goes.

 

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I've been saying since our coaching search that Bennett's system isn't built for the tournament.  This isn't a case of bad luck.  It is a very clear trend at this point.

  • 10-8 career record
    • If he never lost to a lower seeded team, he "should" have been at least 20-8
  • 0-3 against better seeded teams (average margin of defeat of 24.3 points)
    • "Upset" in other 5 tournaments. All 5 losses to teams at least 3 seeds worse. 
  • Combined record as a 1 seed is 5-3
    • 1-1 as a 2 seed
    • 1-1 as a 3 seed

image.thumb.png.ca5401c6d4b2ad98246b2efd1272c3c7.png

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37 minutes ago, milehiiu said:

K gets a pass from me for one reason.  A one time grad assistant at the greatest university in the country. 

Coach K is the greatest overall but I think there's areas for interpretation as well. Jay Wright has a lot of work to do to but what he ends up winning 4 or even 5 to coach K's 6 then it's an easy decision for me. Jay will have modernized the way we look at how basketball played and doing it against Coach K, Roy, Self and Cal in their primes with far less talent! You can throw in the likes of Izzo and TB if you want.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Leathernecks said:

I've been saying since our coaching search that Bennett's system isn't built for the tournament.  This isn't a case of bad luck.  It is a very clear trend at this point.

  • 10-8 career record
    • If he never lost to a lower seeded team, he "should" have been at least 20-8
  • 0-3 against better seeded teams (average margin of defeat of 24.3 points)
    • "Upset" in other 5 tournaments. All 5 losses to teams at least 3 seeds worse. 
  • Combined record as a 1 seed is 5-3
    • 1-1 as a 2 seed
    • 1-1 as a 3 seed

image.thumb.png.ca5401c6d4b2ad98246b2efd1272c3c7.png

Thanks for sharing that data and appreciate you chiming in. I wish I could get an honest look into his mindset. I feel like he's completely doubling down on his approach and taking it even further in his style which I love! I'm genuinely curious to see what happens this season. His squad has outstanding numbers but it's skewed very poorly in distribution. Very tricky....Mark Few is another one I'm keeping my eye on. I feel like he's adjusting to a more modern approach.

 

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I think the game could explode in a big way in the next 3-5 years. Jay Wright laid a foundation that should give a lot of hope to decent programs willing to take a chance on a young coach with a philosophy that's similar to that. You dont't need lottery picks to mimic a style that's similar to that and could be a huge threat.

He seriously somehow created an entire team that shot 59 / 40 / and 80 and played at a tempo that's directly in the middle which gives them comfort playing slow, fast, or medium?! That's insane! Those numbers can be duplicated if you manipulate a few things but he took as many 3's as 2's. Unstoppable from a data standpoint and you're screwed everywhere. I need to get a copy of that seasons DVD's just to see what it would be like trying to counter that.

 

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Its kinda depressing to talk brackets, knowing the Hoosiers will be absent (unless they show mercy),I miss the days of wondering what seed 1,2,3 or 4 IU would get or if the were going to be a 1 seed in the Midwest and who they would play,  even in '11 and '12 when they made a couple sweet 16 runs you still knew that they were on shaky ground,the Syracuse game still stings.I miss being excited and couldnt wait for the Bracket to be revealed, now its just another day for a fan of Basketball....nice post to the OP, well thought out and informed. 

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6 minutes ago, HoosierJax said:

Its kinda depressing to talk brackets, knowing the Hoosiers will be absent (unless they show mercy),I miss the days of wondering what seed 1,2,3 or 4 IU would get or if the were going to be a 1 seed in the Midwest and who they would play,  even in '11 and '12 when they made a couple sweet 16 runs you still knew that they were on shaky ground,the Syracuse game still stings.I miss being excited and couldnt wait for the Bracket to be revealed, now its just another day for a fan of Basketball....nice post to the OP, well thought out and informed. 

Still excited and will be taking off Thursday and Friday to watch BB all day long

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15 minutes ago, HoosierJax said:

Its kinda depressing to talk brackets, knowing the Hoosiers will be absent (unless they show mercy),I miss the days of wondering what seed 1,2,3 or 4 IU would get or if the were going to be a 1 seed in the Midwest and who they would play,  even in '11 and '12 when they made a couple sweet 16 runs you still knew that they were on shaky ground,the Syracuse game still stings.I miss being excited and couldnt wait for the Bracket to be revealed, now its just another day for a fan of Basketball....nice post to the OP, well thought out and informed. 

Thanks a lot Jax. I'm really ashamed with how I allowed myself to behave. It was pretty pathetic and unacceptable. I'm feeling especially guilty at this moment because I kept digging a deeper and deeper hole that had left me with 0 positive outcomes. Even the selfish argument in a scenario that I ended up being right about everything ends up with little to no satisfaction. 

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Each year 538 (Nate Silver) ranks coaches' NCAA tournament performance against expected performance (ranked by total wins vs expected wins). This is for all coaches 1985-2018, so it includes many coaches who are no longer active.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/jim-boeheim-is-the-new-king-of-march-madness/

Some notables among active coaches:

1. Boeheim

2 Izzo

3 R Williams

4. Calipari

7 Krzyzewski

9. Belein

28 Chris Mack

52 Mark Few

65 Archie Miller (there are so many inactive on list that Archie is in top 20 of active coaches)

82 Greg Marshall

92 Chris Holtman

98 Jay Wright

105 Matt Painter

131 Bruce Pearl

142 Steve Alford (active in 2018).

188 Bill Self

550 Tony Bennett

551 Kelvin Sampson

558 Rick Barnes

 

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17 minutes ago, IowaHoosierFan said:

I have tickets again this year to the first and second round in Des Moines.  It's a pretty fun time and last time I got to watch IU beat Kentucky. I couldn't talk after that game.  No voice left

That was an amazing game, I’m sure those were some great memories for you.

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Hey guys, I'm going to leave this one up to you all for now! I intended on making some sort of post regarding the bracket but I'm eliminating my mistakes remember :) and I wasn't happy with where it was going.

@ricowas right and the preachy posts have got to go. I kept all that stuff to myself for a lonnngggg time and I used that style as a method to work out things visually to keep track of where my thoughts were going.

 

I had a really great weekend and my theories held up well with my 'frauds' losing and my 'philosophy' kicking ass.

 

I wasn't happy or proud of myself at all. I felt slight guilt and mostly nothingness. I tried to pawn those things to you all as facts and they aren't facts, they're theoretical opinions. There's a ton of value in theory!  I think its kind of misunderstand and I want to try and pass along what I know about that on occasion and hopefully expose those ideas to others. 

 

 

Cheers guys.

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4 minutes ago, JWoolsey said:

Hey guys, I'm going to leave this one up to you all for now! I intended on making some sort of post regarding the bracket but I'm eliminating my mistakes remember :) and I wasn't happy with where it was going.

@ricowas right and the preachy posts have got to go. I kept all that stuff to myself for a lonnngggg time and I used that style as a method to work out things visually to keep track of where my thoughts were going.

 

I had a really great weekend and my theories held up well with my 'frauds' losing and my 'philosophy' kicking ass.

 

I wasn't happy or proud of myself at all. I felt slight guilt and mostly nothingness. I tried to pawn those things to you all as facts and they aren't facts, they're theoretical opinions. There's a ton of value in theory!  I think its kind of misunderstand and I want to try and pass along what I know about that on occasion and hopefully expose those ideas to others. 

 

 

Cheers guys.

This is hilarious. Get over yourself.

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11 minutes ago, cohete15 said:

Where do you go to medical school?

I'm not in medical school. I said I was taking medical classes and if you'd like to vet me more then you can PM me and I'll gladly give you my phone number.

You want screnshots of my transcripts?

If you'd like to gamble then I'll gamble with you.

I wanted to be a surgeon but I settled on First Assistant because I was satisfied with the scope of practice and im 34. I made a lot of money in the past and it's not important to me (that line was for you )

 

 

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32 minutes ago, JWoolsey said:

I'm not in medical school. I said I was taking medical classes and if you'd like to vet me more then you can PM me and I'll gladly give you my phone number.

You want screnshots of my transcripts?

If you'd like to gamble then I'll gamble with you.

I wanted to be a surgeon but I settled on First Assistant because I was satisfied with the scope of practice and im 34. I made a lot of money in the past and it's not important to me (that line was for you )

 

 

I asked you a question. You answered it with your first sentence. The rest I don't care about. Not sure why you're so defensive in your answer to a simple, straight forward question.

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1 minute ago, cohete15 said:

I asked you a question. You answered it with your first sentence. The rest I don't care about. Not sure why you're so defensive in your answer to a simple, straight forward question.

Wasn't defensive I was goofing around with you.

 

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12 minutes ago, cohete15 said:

My bad!

We're all good. I'm over myself but the methods are really effective and they are supposed to work out more times than not!

I played millions of hands of poker. I've got an eye for looking at numbers and seeing which numbers pop out and which ones don't. Not a lot of skill but a lot of grunt work and time.

After that it's small connections that anyone can make. I just sold it over confidently. 

I just connected the dots with a little bit of over confidence thrown in.

Poor form indeed.

 

 

 

My demeanor will adjust. Just need a little time and a little effort at some sort of salvation effort. here 

 

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