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Blind Coaching Resumes

Zlinedavid

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Zlinedavid

Zlinedavid

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Everyone knows and loves tolerates this game.  Given that the season is over and with nothing else besides kvetching about results and getting overly excited about transfers and recruits to do, let's play a round, shall we? 

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Hint 1: These are all major D1 programs that have not had a coaching change since the start of the 2016-17 season.
Hint 2: The years represented may or may not be the most recent 4 seasons. 
Hint 3: There's a curveball in there somewhere. 

Any of the above that you regard as particularly good/best of the bunch? Any that are particularly awful? Any that you'd consider acceptable at IU? And any guesses as to the identities?

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FKIM01

FKIM01

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Fun stuff...I'm going to go at it blindly without looking them up to be fair, although I suspect I know which one is Jay Wright from memory...

Coach A: Slow progress...this forum would have chewed him up by the end of season 3.  Peegs would have burned him in effigy halfway through the first season.  Overall, unimpressive until year 4.  I'd hope the AD would have patience, but I'd about guarantee the fans would have given up during season three. (Jay Wright?)

Coach B:  A picture of going nowhere...no progress at all.  IU fans would have been restless in season two and would have completely melted down in season three.  I can't imagine the AD not moving on by the end of year four.

Coach C:  Another coach that would have lost the IU fanbase during year 3, if not before.  A shame as he showed really nice progress in year four, although the NIT would have been unacceptable to the IU fanbase that deep into his tenure.

Coach D:  Three years in the desert.  He would have never made it to the successful 4th year with IU fans.  Too bad.  In hindsight, I'd certainly give him years 5 & 6 to prove he could sustain his momentum.

Coach E:  Fans would have been pretty discouraged in year two after a fast start.  By year 4, a lot of IU fans would be saying "Let me off this roller coaster!!!"  If I'm the AD, I'd give this guy years 5 & 6 to see if he could level off at an acceptable altitude.  John Beilein?

Coach F:  Season two looks just like Tom Crean's first season.  That would be rough on just about any fanbase.  Still, the trend after that point is encouraging enough that most would get back on the bandwagon.  This coach survives after a rough start that is forgiven when fans consider the dramatic changes that were forced on the program.  Surprising, given that this coach has the worst overall winning percentage of any listed.  Year two had either significant injury or discipline issues is my guess...something that helped the fanbase rationalize the terrible record and look forward hopefully.

Coach G:  Fans restless at the end of season two, but recruiting is picking up and coach says the right things.  Enough progress in years 3 & 4 to satisfy most fanbases (here, most fanbases does not include IU, but the AD overrules and keeps this coach).

Coach H:  Most successful coach of the bunch in sheer winning percentage.  A bit of a letdown in years 2 & 4 but nowhere near enough to lose the AD.  Year 3 has the fanbase in ecstasy and while year 4 is a comparative disappointment, no way does this coach lose the fanbase over it.  I'm guessing this is the current IU coach, although I question whether his elite 8 record was that good...30 wins...nice run!

Coach I:  Coach D's slightly less successful twin.  With another three years in the desert, it's hard to imagine the IU fanbase not chewing this one up and spitting him out just like they did coach D.

and finally, Coach J:  Sans year 3, a model of consistency.  Lack of progress here would be unacceptable to most IU fans and this coach would likely be drummed out after year 4, although there would be significant pressure to get rid of him after year 3.

I'm bullish on Coach H, but like Coach G as well.  None of these coaches feel terrible from my standpoint, but I definitely could see several of them fired at least by the end of the 4th season if they were at IU.

Now, I'll wait patiently to look foolish. 

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Zlinedavid

Zlinedavid

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In the previous two posts, all of the coaches named are present somewhere, with the exception of Tom Crean. He is not one of the coaches. At least one of either Rico's or FKIM01's guesses are exactly correct, and at least one guessed a correct name, but matched it to the wrong resume.

And the curveball wasn't touched.

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FKIM01

FKIM01

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42 minutes ago, Zlinedavid said:

Hint 4: The four years listed are consecutive, but may not represent the first four years of A coach's tenure.

Hint 5: These hints are all 100% true, but are worded very specifically.

That would change my outlook quite a bit...assumed all were first four years of tenure.

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rico

rico

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Well you must have some major curveball in this.  I have been studying them off and on trying to remember little tidbits I picked up from tournament action.  For some reason I remember a talking head saying Buzz Williams went 11-22 in his first season at Va Tech and 22-11 in his 3rd with a NCAAT appearance.  I don't know what was sandwiched in between.......but I am going with "Coach G" as Buzz, although that 9-22 makes no sense.  He couldn't have been that bad at Marquette in his last year there.

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Zlinedavid

Zlinedavid

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11 hours ago, SawatchHoosier said:

I feel like H is Sean Miller. The 16-15 is probably his first season at Arizona. The problem is I believe he went the tournament his last season at Xavier.

 

10 hours ago, rico said:

Well I still don't understand the quotation marks...but if my hypothesis is correct(which it probably isn't) I am going with Tony Bennett as "Coach A" and John Beilein as "Coach A"........or I could be all wet.

 

25 minutes ago, rico said:

"Coach D"= Rick Barnes?

Y'all are hitting the fastball. SawatchHoosier is barking up the right tree, just the wrong branch.

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rico

rico

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4 minutes ago, Zlinedavid said:

 

 

Y'all are hitting the fastball. SawatchHoosier is barking up the right tree, just the wrong branch.

With "Coach H's" numbers the last 3 W-L records absolutely match Sean Miller at 'Zona.  However that 21-14 matches up with the guy that preceded Sean.  The same can be said with "Coach D", the last 3 records match Barnes with the Vols...but the first matches up with Tydall.

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Zlinedavid

Zlinedavid

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13 minutes ago, rico said:

With "Coach H's" numbers the last 3 W-L records absolutely match Sean Miller at 'Zona.  However that 21-14 matches up with the guy that preceded Sean.  The same can be said with "Coach D", the last 3 records match Barnes with the Vols...but the first matches up with Tydall.

Well done.

"Coach D" is the head coach at the University of Tennessee. Tyndall's last year, and Barnes' first 3 years are listed.

Edit: And "Coach H" is the head coach at the University of Arizona. Russ Pennell's last year and Sean Miller's first three years are listed.

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Zlinedavid

Zlinedavid

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Since the cat is out of the bag.....

 

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Note that with one exception, these are all considered good, great or "elite" coaches.  Krystowiak is on the list because he (somehow) makes about the same salary as Archie.

In their first 3 years at a major program:

- Only 6 out of 10 made the NCAA tournament at all inside their first three years. 
- Only one made the NCAA tournament in their first year.  Not coincidentally, that is the only program to have made the tournament the year prior. 
- Only two made the NCAA tournament their second year, and both of them were back out of the tournament the following season.
- Only one has made the NCAA tournament more than once in their first three years......and he's the guy currently on the hot seat (Smart). 
- Only one out of the six that made the tournament at all made it to the 2nd weekend.....and was back in the NIT the year after.

Now, here's one last comparison to look at:

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Strikingly similar, I'd say. 

- The whole "But Archie didn't inherit a Crean-level rebuild.  The cupboard wasn't bare." excuse doesn't wash.  None of the above coaches did either. And these are the "great" coaches that everyone thinks we should have hired.  Only one out of 10 inherited an NCAA tournament team, and not coincidentally, that was the only coach to make the NCAAs in his first year.  In fact, every coach listed above mirrored their team's output from the prior year.  The NCAA tournament team made the NCAA tournament.  The NIT team made the NIT again.  And teams that didn't go to the postseason, still didn't go to the postseason. 

Below are some claims that I've read over the last few days:

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....we should be like Villanova, Michigan....Virginia as well.

 

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There is no way on Earth that Tennessee should have a better program than Indiana

 

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(Poster A) tennessee??!! Virginia Tech? Virginia?!! Come on people they don’t have the facilities, traditions, recruiting base, etc that we do...and that’s just three. What the HECK IS OUR PROBLEM???!!!
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(Poster B) Because we are too cheap to hire the best and brightest coaches.

Everyone that is so down on Archie needs a reality check.  If you think that Gregg Marshall, Jay Wright, Tony Bennett or Rick Barnes would have miraculously had us in the Final Four this year, the above shows that odds are....you're wrong.  Why? Because they, and 5 other pretty good to "elite" coaches didn't come anywhere close.  Making the tournament in a coach's second season (provided they didn't inherit a tournament team) is a pretty good accomplishment, given the fact that only 2 out of the above 8 did it (I'm excluding Krystowiak, and Smart inherited a tournament team). Virginia Tech and Tennessee are overnight sensations? Nope.  Took their coaches 3 seasons to become an overnight sensation. 

These aren't examples that I'm just pulling because they statistically support my argument.  These are the EXACT coaches that everyone is saying we should have hired.  It has absolutely nothing to do with being too cheap.  Those same coaches that we were too "cheap" to hire produced nearly identical results to Archie.  In fact, look at Utah.  We could be paying more and getting worse results.

And I can already hear the arguments against this: "Indiana has better facilities, tradition, etc etc etc".  Valid point.  Michigan, Arizona and Texas aren't exactly small-time programs though.  Arizona and Michigan have won a national championship more recently than Indiana, and Texas' athletic department's budget rivals the GDP of some small countries.  And it still took Beilein and Miller 2 years to make the tournament, and neither made it the following season.  The fact that Miller went to the Elite 8 is by far the exception out of any of these situations. 

The point I'm trying to make is that the only thing that will give you what you want is time.  None of the realistic alternatives to Archie would have produced miraculously better results.  And Archie's results are on par with what those same alternatives have done in the same situation they'd be in here.  So relax.  We're only on the threshhold of when any coach would start to have a program turned around. 

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