Conference Realignment

[IUFLA]

53 minutes ago, IUCrazy2 said:

https://www.si.com/.amp/college/2021/08/24/big-ten-pac-12-acc-announce-conference-alliance

The alliance is official.  The SEC may have made a strategic blunder in blowing up the Big 12.  I still think we will see the remaining Big 12 schools get divided up so Iowa St. and Kansas looking like the most likely to the BIG?  West Virginia to the ACC?  Pac 12 adds a few schools to get to 16?

Pac-12 should grab Texas Tech and Baylor. Cultivate the rich Texas recruiting base in football and basketball...

[IUCrazy2]

1 hour ago, IUFLA said:

Pac-12 should grab Texas Tech and Baylor. Cultivate the rich Texas recruiting base in football and basketball...

Dave Wannstedt is saying he heard Kansas St. and Oklahoma St. to Pac 12 and he had the other 3 going where I did.

[KoB2011]

11 hours ago, dgambill said:

I'm not saying who they play isn't tough enough (honestly even if they lose a game they often deserve to be in the playoff system which is why I agree in expanding it)....but Bama always has a cupcake game scheduled the week before the Auburn game....always.

And typically the Mississippi schools make up the games between the LSU game and that. 

Where as until recently Auburn had Georgia, sometimes even the week before. 

[IUCrazy2]

I was reading that all 3 of the ACC, Pac 12, and Big 10 are saying currently that they are not going to expand.  I think Indiana is really lucky to have already been a member of a strong conference because schools like Kansas look like they might be getting left on the outside looking in.

[dgambill]

I'd be shocked if the Pac 12 takes Baylor. I'd be shocked if any of the BIG 12  leftovers find a major conference to defect to. They will pull more revenue share then they contribute. If I had any guess I'd say that the BIG 12 will try to lure a couple teams away from the American Conference or say a Boise St or maybe BYU comes aboard. They will struggle along for say another decade before it finally breaks up....but I think they will try to salvage what is left until they realize there just won't be any pie left without Texas and Oklahoma. 

[Reacher]

17 hours ago, IUCrazy2 said:

https://www.si.com/.amp/college/2021/08/24/big-ten-pac-12-acc-announce-conference-alliance

The alliance is official.  The SEC may have made a strategic blunder in blowing up the Big 12.  I still think we will see the remaining Big 12 schools get divided up so Iowa St. and Kansas looking like the most likely to the BIG?  West Virginia to the ACC?  Pac 12 adds a few schools to get to 16?

"The Pac-12 appears to be the conference "driving" the new alliance, per ESPN."

Hope this was because the feared being raided by the B1G. Kudos to their commish for showing some leadership.

[IUFLA]

18 minutes ago, dgambill said:

I'd be shocked if the Pac 12 takes Baylor. I'd be shocked if any of the BIG 12  leftovers find a major conference to defect to. They will pull more revenue share then they contribute. If I had any guess I'd say that the BIG 12 will try to lure a couple teams away from the American Conference or say a Boise St or maybe BYU comes aboard. They will struggle along for say another decade before it finally breaks up....but I think they will try to salvage what is left until they realize there just won't be any pie left without Texas and Oklahoma. 

I disagree. Texas is one of the most important recruiting grounds for both basketball and football. 

I think Texas will initially struggle in the SEC as A&M has for the most part. Baylor and Texas Tech could be an attractive alternative to Texas kids in both sports. Kids like to win.

Baylor did just win a NC, and both schools have had periods of football success. I'd think both would be good additions.

[rico]

55 minutes ago, IUFLA said:

I disagree. Texas is one of the most important recruiting grounds for both basketball and football. 

I think Texas will initially struggle in the SEC as A&M has for the most part. Baylor and Texas Tech could be an attractive alternative to Texas kids in both sports. Kids like to win.

Baylor did just win a NC, and both schools have had periods of football success. I'd think both would be good additions.

The Big 12/schools are gonna have to decide on a direction that they want to head.  Are all the schools on the same page as far as remaining together?  Or are some/any/all trying to broker their own deals with other conferences?

I think they can survive with some additions but like you I feel the PAC 12 wouldn't mind having those Texas schools.

[dgambill]

58 minutes ago, IUFLA said:

I disagree. Texas is one of the most important recruiting grounds for both basketball and football. 

I think Texas will initially struggle in the SEC as A&M has for the most part. Baylor and Texas Tech could be an attractive alternative to Texas kids in both sports. Kids like to win.

Baylor did just win a NC, and both schools have had periods of football success. I'd think both would be good additions.

Do they bring in $$. That is the biggest factor. Baylor has no following. In today's world where people are cutting the cord even market size doesn't mean everything....it's how many people will subscribe/stream your game on your app. That is alumni base etc. Baylor also is fraught with horrible scandals. Pac 12 is much like the B1G...they will emphasize academics, athletic excellence, and revenue. Baylor is a bad school fit for those reasons. Private school/small alumni plus scandals plus small revenue....plus no AAU....doesn't add up. 

[dgambill]

13 minutes ago, rico said:

The Big 12/schools are gonna have to decide on a direction that they want to head.  Are all the schools on the same page as far as remaining together?  Or are some/any/all trying to broker their own deals with other conferences?

I think they can survive with some additions but like you I feel the PAC 12 wouldn't mind having those Texas schools.

Texas Tech maybe. TCU/Baylor religous institutions with small alumni base/small marketability do not offer anything to the PAC 12. Honestly there is one maybe two schools in Texas that brings eyes and recruiting opportunities for recruiting...and they will both be in the SEC. The rest of the schools even though they are in or near major markets don't have much pull for viewership. Tech is the iffy one......maybe. I mean look at UH....over 45,000 students...and they are in the AAC....nobody cares about them.

I don't think they will bring all 3. A long shot but maybe Tech and OSU...but that's a big maybe. I don't think Baylor or TCU adds anything but another mouth to feed for the PAC 12 schools....and neither align with their values. If they wouldn't bring BYU in because of those values why would they bring in cast off Texas schools?

Edited August 25, 2021 by dgambill

[rico]

8 minutes ago, dgambill said:

Texas Tech maybe. TCU/Baylor religous institutions with small alumni base/small marketability do not offer anything to the PAC 12. Honestly there is one maybe two schools in Texas that brings eyes and recruiting opportunities for recruiting...and they will both be in the SEC. The rest of the schools even though they are in or near major markets don't have much pull for viewership. Tech is the iffy one......maybe. I mean look at UH....over 45,000 students...and they are in the AAC....nobody cares about them.

I don't think they will bring all 3. A long shot but maybe Tech and OSU...but that's a big maybe. I don't think Baylor or TCU adds anything but another mouth to feed for the PAC 12 schools....and neither align with their values. If they wouldn't bring BYU in because of those values why would they bring in cast off Texas schools?

As I have stated countless times.  I feel the Big 12 will survive this(but hell I have been wrong countless times) if they add some new blood from the AAC/other conferences.  They might not just jump back to their former selves, whatever that is/was, but they could have a fine conference.  They will be absent a "alpha" football school but I think one will surface given time.

[dgambill]

6 minutes ago, rico said:

As I have stated countless times.  I feel the Big 12 will survive this(but hell I have been wrong countless times) if they add some new blood from the AAC/other conferences.  They might not just jump back to their former selves, whatever that is/was, but they could have a fine conference.  They will be absent a "alpha" football school but I think one will surface given time.

I think they can survive in a AAC/BIG EAST sort of way...but I think long term the schools will look to try to join another conference...it's just will anyone take them. I think we confuse being competitive on the field/court with being competitive $$$ in negotiating tv contracts and conference revenue. Winning doesn't always = $$$ Especially when winning has been subsidized by Texas and Oklahoma football so you can build your facilities and have your visability. What happens when that is gone....can you still win without that revenue....maybe...if you are run very well...or maybe the school goes back to it's original focus on being an academic institution with religious emphasis (Baylor/TCU)  If you don't have the money coming in can you keep paying top salaries to keep Campbell and Gundy and Drew and Self etc etc or do they get sucked up by other power conference schools and then can you sustain it without them.

 If it stays Big 12 then I think you need UH to pull in some viewers back from the Houston market. SEC is going to eat a lot anyways but to just keep eyes. Maybe convince UCF, Cincy, and bring in a Boise St or something to keep it the conference viable but honestly it's lost a lot of its value already so those schools are going to suffer if they can't find one of the big conferences to take them...but they will go on. The more I think about it the less value I think these schools really have to bring revenue to another conference. The conference will just be diminished and end up like C-USA, AAC, Big East....and if they can't agree...they will just end up breaking up and going to those lesser conferences. I

[HoosierDom]

9 minutes ago, dgambill said:

I think they can survive in a AAC/BIG EAST sort of way...but I think long term the schools will look to try to join another conference...it's just will anyone take them. I think we confuse being competitive on the field/court with being competitive $$$ in negotiating tv contracts and conference revenue. Winning doesn't always = $$$ Especially when winning has been subsidized by Texas and Oklahoma football so you can build your facilities and have your visability. What happens when that is gone....can you still win without that revenue....maybe...if you are run very well...or maybe the school goes back to it's original focus on being an academic institution with religious emphasis (Baylor/TCU)  If you don't have the money coming in can you keep paying top salaries to keep Campbell and Gundy and Drew and Self etc etc or do they get sucked up by other power conference schools and then can you sustain it without them.

 If it stays Big 12 then I think you need UH to pull in some viewers back from the Houston market. SEC is going to eat a lot anyways but to just keep eyes. Maybe convince UCF, Cincy, and bring in a Boise St or something to keep it the conference viable but honestly it's lost a lot of its value already so those schools are going to suffer if they can't find one of the big conferences to take them...but they will go on. The more I think about it the less value I think these schools really have to bring revenue to another conference. The conference will just be diminished and end up like C-USA, AAC, Big East....and if they can't agree...they will just end up breaking up and going to those lesser conferences. I

It's not just bad luck that causes schools to keep leaving the Big 12. Those remaining teams are not appealing conference mates and no one is going to want them. 

[rico]

10 minutes ago, dgambill said:

I think they can survive in a AAC/BIG EAST sort of way...but I think long term the schools will look to try to join another conference...it's just will anyone take them. I think we confuse being competitive on the field/court with being competitive $$$ in negotiating tv contracts and conference revenue. Winning doesn't always = $$$ Especially when winning has been subsidized by Texas and Oklahoma football so you can build your facilities and have your visability. What happens when that is gone....can you still win without that revenue....maybe...if you are run very well...or maybe the school goes back to it's original focus on being an academic institution with religious emphasis (Baylor/TCU)  If you don't have the money coming in can you keep paying top salaries to keep Campbell and Gundy and Drew and Self etc etc or do they get sucked up by other power conference schools and then can you sustain it without them.

 If it stays Big 12 then I think you need UH to pull in some viewers back from the Houston market. SEC is going to eat a lot anyways but to just keep eyes. Maybe convince UCF, Cincy, and bring in a Boise St or something to keep it the conference viable but honestly it's lost a lot of its value already so those schools are going to suffer if they can't find one of the big conferences to take them...but they will go on. The more I think about it the less value I think these schools really have to bring revenue to another conference. The conference will just be diminished and end up like C-USA, AAC, Big East....and if they can't agree...they will just end up breaking up and going to those lesser conferences. I

Cincinnati and Houston are no brainers to me.  The Cougars were a major player in football until the SWC disbanded.  The Bearcats speak for themselves in today's landscape.  Memphis is another I would bring on board as well as SMU.  That would give them 12 but I wouldn't stop there.  BYU, Boise St., Colorado St., Wyoming, etc. all need to get looks as well.

 

[rico]

5 minutes ago, HoosierDom said:

It's not just bad luck that causes schools to keep leaving the Big 12. Those remaining teams are not appealing conference mates and no one is going to want them. 

Okie State?

[BDB]

28 minutes ago, HoosierDom said:

It's not just bad luck that causes schools to keep leaving the Big 12. Those remaining teams are not appealing conference mates and no one is going to want them. 

That's why they are tagging themselves as the "Irate 8".

[HoosierDom]

23 minutes ago, rico said:

Okie State?

The second biggest football school in a state with 4 million people. I don't see conferences fighting over them.

[tdhoosier]

1 hour ago, dgambill said:

Do they bring in $$. That is the biggest factor. Baylor has no following. In today's world where people are cutting the cord even market size doesn't mean everything....it's how many people will subscribe/stream your game on your app. That is alumni base etc. Baylor also is fraught with horrible scandals. Pac 12 is much like the B1G...they will emphasize academics, athletic excellence, and revenue. Baylor is a bad school fit for those reasons. Private school/small alumni plus scandals plus small revenue....plus no AAU....doesn't add up. 

Hate to sound like a broken record, but this is the question that needs to be asked. Success don’t mean crap without the revenue potential and strong academics (at least fo the PAC12 and B1G).

I know we also feel that IU doesn’t have much of a foot to stand on when it come to a monstrous revenue potential, but we do have the 3rd biggest alumni base in the country, spread out in many markets. If football takes off a sleeping giant could be woken. We just need a reason to watch. 

I believe IU (Nebraska, Maryland, etc) can say “If you build it they will come”. 
some other schools who are not as attractive to big conferences are more like: “well, we built it, but not many people came”

 

[rico]

9 minutes ago, HoosierDom said:

The second biggest football school in a state with 4 million people. I don't see conferences fighting over them.

Fair enough.

[IUFLA]

1 hour ago, dgambill said:

Do they bring in $$. That is the biggest factor. Baylor has no following. In today's world where people are cutting the cord even market size doesn't mean everything....it's how many people will subscribe/stream your game on your app. That is alumni base etc. Baylor also is fraught with horrible scandals. Pac 12 is much like the B1G...they will emphasize academics, athletic excellence, and revenue. Baylor is a bad school fit for those reasons. Private school/small alumni plus scandals plus small revenue....plus no AAU....doesn't add up. 

The money will be there in a P5 conference...Shoot, IU has been the benefactor of that for years...

I just think a presence in a state that produces the 2nd most D1 football recruits, and the 3rd most D1 basketball recruits would be a boon for any conference...

[dgambill]

20 hours ago, IUFLA said:

The money will be there in a P5 conference...Shoot, IU has been the benefactor of that for years...

I just think a presence in a state that produces the 2nd most D1 football recruits, and the 3rd most D1 basketball recruits would be a boon for any conference...

That's the thing....without Texas and Oklahoma it isn't a P5 conference. NOBODY WANTS TO WATCH ANYONE ELSE!!! I'm not yelling but just putting that out there to emphasize it. Viewers brings dollars. Winning can bring more viewers but the rest of the Big 12 is capped. People in Texas care about 3 teams....the Texas Longhorns....Texas A&M....and both those are a distant third to the Dallas Cowboys. Everything else is a very small subset of viewers. SEC OWNS TEXAS NOW. The only two college teams that matter....there is no media market for those other schools. I guarantee if you look at the tv ratings in Houston and Dallas the top 10 rated college football games last several years will all be including Texas or Texas A&M outside of bowl/BCS games. Maybe a BIG 12 Championship game but I don't think they even have those anymore. So what all this comes down to is without those schools...no matter how good you are you aren't getting P5 money from tv networks. You create a streaming service or your own network and you aren't generating enough views to be at the P5 level. Let's be real....you have your money makers....your good teams (and those aren't necessarily the same all the time)...and your teams with their hands out in that conference. Cincy, UH, UCF, Memphis...and especially Boise St over the years have all been leaps better than most of the Big 12 on the field....but they've never gained acceptance because they would take more money from the conference then they would generate....and that is how most leagues will look at what is left of the BIG 12....OKST and Texas Tech and Iowa St honestly are the ones that MIGHT generate enough revenue but that is a big IF. It will come down to if the pie will be big enough after you give them their slice to make it worthwhile for the others to add them. The rest are just scraps. Kansas and Baylor basketball doesn't mean squat in this equation. Why has UCONN bounced around from conference to conference...arguably one of the elite basketball schools in college sports. It used to be that you needed to play in-state to garner attention of recruits....but heck IU is pulling as many if not more recruits from Florida then just about any local state. Don't get me wrong...I think it helps having more eyes on your programs for recruiting (which is why the PAC12 can struggle being on late out West and I can see them wanting to have more Central time zone games but this can be achieved just as easily by scheduling those schools out of conference then subsidizing them IN YOUR CONFERENCE. Coaches bring recruits....that is why Allen is having success in parts of the country we've never seen (for better rated players). This all get's back to $$. I think the best thing if no one comes calling is for the Big 12 to pull up from the smaller conferences the best programs they can (because honestly $$ revenue is going to drop regardless)....bring in Boise St., BYU, UH, and UCF/Cincy...and go from there and try to create as competitive a conference as you can...and hope the competition will bring more eyes and will land more teams in the playoffs to generate more dollars from tv....otherwise they might as well all split up and go their own ways....some to AAC, some C-USA, some Big East (basketball), some MW etc..taking as big a payday as they can get to join. Something tells me the Big12 will go back to being the 12 teams again though. Right now it is only 10 and 2 are leaving...those schools together draw more money then they would going to a smaller conference even if it means subsidizing a few new comers. I see them bringing 4 more in and trying to see if they can sustain the conference and if in 5-10 years it isn't working they go their separate ways.

 

[rico]

34 minutes ago, dgambill said:

That's the thing....without Texas and Oklahoma it isn't a P5 conference. NOBODY WANTS TO WATCH ANYONE ELSE!!! I'm not yelling but just putting that out there to emphasize it. Viewers brings dollars. Winning can bring more viewers but the rest of the Big 12 is capped. People in Texas care about 3 teams....the Texas Longhorns....Texas A&M....and both those are a distant third to the Dallas Cowboys. Everything else is a very small subset of viewers. SEC OWNS TEXAS NOW. The only two college teams that matter....there is no media market for those other schools. I guarantee if you look at the tv ratings in Houston and Dallas the top 10 rated college football games last several years will all be including Texas or Texas A&M outside of bowl/BCS games. Maybe a BIG 12 Championship game but I don't think they even have those anymore. So what all this comes down to is without those schools...no matter how good you are you aren't getting P5 money from tv networks. You create a streaming service or your own network and you aren't generating enough views to be at the P5 level. Let's be real....you have your money makers....your good teams (and those aren't necessarily the same all the time)...and your teams with their hands out in that conference. Cincy, UH, UCF, Memphis...and especially Boise St over the years have all been leaps better than most of the Big 12 on the field....but they've never gained acceptance because they would take more money from the conference then they would generate....and that is how most leagues will look at what is left of the BIG 12....OKST and Texas Tech and Iowa St honestly are the ones that MIGHT generate enough revenue but that is a big IF. It will come down to if the pie will be big enough after you give them their slice to make it worthwhile for the others to add them. The rest are just scraps. Kansas and Baylor basketball doesn't mean squat in this equation. Why has UCONN bounced around from conference to conference...arguably one of the elite basketball schools in college sports. It used to be that you needed to play in-state to garner attention of recruits....but heck IU is pulling as many if not more recruits from Florida then just about any local state. Don't get me wrong...I think it helps having more eyes on your programs for recruiting (which is why the PAC12 can struggle being on late out West and I can see them wanting to have more Central time zone games but this can be achieved just as easily by scheduling those schools out of conference then subsidizing them IN YOUR CONFERENCE. Coaches bring recruits....that is why Allen is having success in parts of the country we've never seen (for better rated players). This all get's back to $$. I think the best thing if no one comes calling is for the Big 12 to pull up from the smaller conferences the best programs they can (because honestly $$ revenue is going to drop regardless)....bring in Boise St., BYU, UH, and UCF/Cincy...and go from there and try to create as competitive a conference as you can...and hope the competition will bring more eyes and will land more teams in the playoffs to generate more dollars from tv....otherwise they might as well all split up and go their own ways....some to AAC, some C-USA, some Big East (basketball), some MW etc..taking as big a payday as they can get to join. Something tells me the Big12 will go back to being the 12 teams again though. Right now it is only 10 and 2 are leaving...those schools together draw more money then they would going to a smaller conference even if it means subsidizing a few new comers. I see them bringing 4 more in and trying to see if they can sustain the conference and if in 5-10 years it isn't working they go their separate ways.

 

Wowsers!  Great post there to sift through.  I don't agree with everything in it, per se, but yeah you hit a lot of nails on the head.

In business terms the Big 12 lost their 2 most important assets.  The question is where does the conference go from here to sustain themselves...or do they?

[dgambill]

1 minute ago, rico said:

Wowsers!  Great post there to sift through.  I don't agree with everything in it, per se, but yeah you hit a lot of nails on the head.

In business terms the Big 12 lost their 2 most important assets.  The question is where does the conference go from here to sustain themselves...or do they?

Yeah...probably to lengthy to read...that is the question. I don't think the B1G or PAC12 is coming to their aid unless it's just obvious they will see all their members benefit financially from an acquisition. I think that is why they came out with the gentleman's agreement last week to not poach and to schedule each other and to abide by some common rules. I think the Big 12 will find some very strong football schools and just try to plow through to make their league as competitive as possible to remain relevant for tv partners and in the playoffs...and just have to eat their losses. I'll be honest...a conference champion from a Big 12 that has ISU, OKST, KSTATE, KANSAS, BAYLOR, TCU, TTECH, WVU, and if they could add BYU, BOISEST, UH, and say UCF/CINCY.....that's a team worthy of a playoff bid imo (if they run the table) even in the current system....especially in the larger playoff system if it moves forward. I'd say the winner of that league would be just as viable as from what I see the PAC12 producing. Money might be impossible to ever get back to where it was but if they can still be successful on the field maybe they can generate enough revenue to avoid falling down to that G5 level. I think it is just about a certainty that the NCAA Div1 in football at least will split....and you will have P5+ have a NC and the G5+ have it's own rules and championships...and in fact if the G5 teams were to set up a playoffs like D2....they might even come out ahead in revenue then just trying to compete in the imbalanced system that currently is in place.

[IUFLA]

1 hour ago, dgambill said:

That's the thing....without Texas and Oklahoma it isn't a P5 conference. NOBODY WANTS TO WATCH ANYONE ELSE!!! I'm not yelling but just putting that out there to emphasize it. Viewers brings dollars. Winning can bring more viewers but the rest of the Big 12 is capped. People in Texas care about 3 teams....the Texas Longhorns....Texas A&M....and both those are a distant third to the Dallas Cowboys. Everything else is a very small subset of viewers. SEC OWNS TEXAS NOW. The only two college teams that matter....there is no media market for those other schools. I guarantee if you look at the tv ratings in Houston and Dallas the top 10 rated college football games last several years will all be including Texas or Texas A&M outside of bowl/BCS games. Maybe a BIG 12 Championship game but I don't think they even have those anymore. So what all this comes down to is without those schools...no matter how good you are you aren't getting P5 money from tv networks. You create a streaming service or your own network and you aren't generating enough views to be at the P5 level. Let's be real....you have your money makers....your good teams (and those aren't necessarily the same all the time)...and your teams with their hands out in that conference. Cincy, UH, UCF, Memphis...and especially Boise St over the years have all been leaps better than most of the Big 12 on the field....but they've never gained acceptance because they would take more money from the conference then they would generate....and that is how most leagues will look at what is left of the BIG 12....OKST and Texas Tech and Iowa St honestly are the ones that MIGHT generate enough revenue but that is a big IF. It will come down to if the pie will be big enough after you give them their slice to make it worthwhile for the others to add them. The rest are just scraps. Kansas and Baylor basketball doesn't mean squat in this equation. Why has UCONN bounced around from conference to conference...arguably one of the elite basketball schools in college sports. It used to be that you needed to play in-state to garner attention of recruits....but heck IU is pulling as many if not more recruits from Florida then just about any local state. Don't get me wrong...I think it helps having more eyes on your programs for recruiting (which is why the PAC12 can struggle being on late out West and I can see them wanting to have more Central time zone games but this can be achieved just as easily by scheduling those schools out of conference then subsidizing them IN YOUR CONFERENCE. Coaches bring recruits....that is why Allen is having success in parts of the country we've never seen (for better rated players). This all get's back to $$. I think the best thing if no one comes calling is for the Big 12 to pull up from the smaller conferences the best programs they can (because honestly $$ revenue is going to drop regardless)....bring in Boise St., BYU, UH, and UCF/Cincy...and go from there and try to create as competitive a conference as you can...and hope the competition will bring more eyes and will land more teams in the playoffs to generate more dollars from tv....otherwise they might as well all split up and go their own ways....some to AAC, some C-USA, some Big East (basketball), some MW etc..taking as big a payday as they can get to join. Something tells me the Big12 will go back to being the 12 teams again though. Right now it is only 10 and 2 are leaving...those schools together draw more money then they would going to a smaller conference even if it means subsidizing a few new comers. I see them bringing 4 more in and trying to see if they can sustain the conference and if in 5-10 years it isn't working they go their separate ways.

 

I think you underestimate a few things...

Texas is the 2nd most populous state in the country (almost 30 million people)and just like my point before about the rich recruiting environment, there are certainly enough football fans in this state to go around. Your point about the Longhorns and A&M "owning the state" has some legs, but believe me, the sheer volume of people in this state makes #3 (Texas Tech) a pretty sizable fanbase. Same with Baylor and TCU. And almost everyone in this state is a football fan.

Shoot high school championships draw 30,000+ here...It's kinda like Indiana use to be for high school basketball.

Also, the last two years 80,000 per year have moved from California to Texas for various reasons with no end to the influx in sight. And I'd venture to say more than a few are college football fans with Pac-12 ties.

Money is a driving factor, but if I'm the Pac-12 and I think I can get a toehold in the 2nd most populous state in the US, and one of the recruiting gold mines for both football and basketball, I'm going for it. If you're not losing money by taking teams in, and I don't see why you would, why not?

[dgambill]

1 hour ago, IUFLA said:

I think you underestimate a few things...

Texas is the 2nd most populous state in the country (almost 30 million people)and just like my point before about the rich recruiting environment, there are certainly enough football fans in this state to go around. Your point about the Longhorns and A&M "owning the state" has some legs, but believe me, the sheer volume of people in this state makes #3 (Texas Tech) a pretty sizable fanbase. Same with Baylor and TCU. And almost everyone in this state is a football fan.

Shoot high school championships draw 30,000+ here...It's kinda like Indiana use to be for high school basketball.

Also, the last two years 80,000 per year have moved from California to Texas for various reasons with no end to the influx in sight. And I'd venture to say more than a few are college football fans with Pac-12 ties.

Money is a driving factor, but if I'm the Pac-12 and I think I can get a toehold in the 2nd most populous state in the US, and one of the recruiting gold mines for both football and basketball, I'm going for it. If you're not losing money by taking teams in, and I don't see why you would, why not?

I understand.....it's a big pie in Texas...huge!! Tech might have a claim no doubt....but the fact still remains. UH has 50k kids...and nobody wants to watch them in the Houston market....it's A&M and Texas football there. Now...take Baylor and TCU....two religous institutions that don't typically align with PAC12 social values etc.....those two schools...both together have a student body (and thus roughly alumni base) of Northwestern. Both together! How much of the Texas market do you think those two schools have honestly?? And outside that market nationally do they register with people?? Now...tv money matters a lot...but lets remember...people are cutting cable...the way forward for the major way to generate revenue for power conferences will be their own network. If you have your own network for streaming the rest of your games....subscribers....and cable/streaming contracts...so tv markets are becoming less and less important (maybe not today but in the future) and alumni-fan support will become a bigger and bigger factor. Those two schools are going to be poorly positioned to help a major conference generate revenue. That is all I'm saying. ISU, TTech, OKST have the best shot to join another conference...but I'd say its a long shot.