General State of Recruiting Thread

[FW_Hoosier]

Since people seem to be getting upset that recruit-specific threads are not devoted solely to minute-by-minute updates on what Lester Quinones learned in third period today or Trendon Watford’s most recent Fortnite win, I figured I’d start this thread.  Put your pontificating/venting/sunshine pumping regarding the current state of IU recruiting here.

[ArchieBall13]

Our on court failures this past year have caught up to us on the recruiting trail recently. It won’t make Archie’s path to long term success at IU easier, but put me in the camp that Archie can win big enough with mid level talent based on his track record at Dayton. 

I would feel a lot worse about our chances if Crean was in this situation. And for the record, I think we do have plenty of talent on our roster next year to compete at a relatively highly level. Make tourney next year and that is a solid step towards long term progress. Put together a couple of back to back tourney appearances and it’s a new ball game on the recruiting trail too.

[Zlinedavid]

I can't wait to see what success looks like, considering "failure" seems to consist of a McDAA Mr. Basketball (2nd straight) and a top 150 likely 4 year player.

[Bedford1432]

2 minutes ago, ArchieBall13 said:

Our on court failures this past year have caught up to us on the recruiting trail recently. It won’t make Archie’s path to long term success at IU easier, but put me in the camp that Archie can win big enough with mid level talent based on his track record at Dayton. 

I would feel a lot worse about our chances if Crean was in this situation. And for the record, I think we do have plenty of talent on our roster next year to compete at a relatively highly level. Make tourney next year and that is a solid step towards long term progress. Put together a couple of back to back tourney appearances and it’s a new ball game on the recruiting trail too.

I think we would be getting some of these guys if we had not had that horrible losing streak but it is obvious it is costing us. I certainly think it hurt us is a huge way with Brooks. Archie is going to have to prove he can win with lesser talent it seems. Not honestly how I thought this was going to go but it is what it is I guess. 

[5fouls]

• I would like our recruitment of players that will take time to develop to be consistently in state (Damezi) versus out of state (Forrester).
• People overreact to small classes.  In reality, they often work out better (Vic/Sheehey & OG/Juwan versus The Movement).
• 2020 is a down year in-state.  2021 is huge for Archie.  
• I'm not upset at all that we missed out on Brooks.  I don't know anything about him, other than he decided to leave his school in Ft. Wayne to play at LaLum.  And, I realize that one thing should not define my perception of him, but it does.  He may very well be a great kid. 
• I'm infinitely less worried about recruiting than I am in on-court performance.  

[Madison22]

39 minutes ago, FW_Hoosier said:

Since people seem to be getting upset that recruit-specific threads are not devoted solely to minute-by-minute updates . . . put your (posts) regarding the current state of IU recruiting here.

How about that Penguin Point in Goshen!

Sorry, I couldn't resist going off topic on a thread created to not go off topic because the OP did go off topic. 

It was like a "wet paint, do not touch" sign.  😀 😀 😀

[iuthruandthru]

Any restaurant that serves crinkle fries is a winner in my book 

[Seeking6]

I'm all for good news. Anyone want to share some? Small window for new coach is closing and closing. Much like Princess Leia....who is our only hope in 20?

[Long Duk Dong]

27 minutes ago, Seeking6 said:

I'm all for good news. Anyone want to share some? Small window for new coach is closing and closing. Much like Princess Leia....who is our only hope in 20?

Well Notre Dame football was as dead as Indiana basketball and is and just as long and they have come back to being a top 5 program again. 

We just have to find our Brian Kelly. I'm not so sure we have the President and AD to pull it off though.

But I suppose it is good news.....to a degree.

[dbmhoosier]

4 minutes ago, Long Duk Dong said:

Well Notre Dame football was as dead as Indiana basketball and is and just as long and they have come back to being a top 5 program again. 

We just have to find our Brian Kelly. I'm not so sure we have the President and AD to pull it off though.

But I suppose it is good news.....to a degree.

Fire Fred & Shoulders and then maybe Archie if we don't have massive improvement.  In that order.  It will not help until then.

[FKIM01]

Realistically, every class should be 3-4 recruits, tops.  Otherwise, you end up with an unbalanced mess.  Undoubtedly, while a program is stabilizing, kids are more likely to transfer out.  Early entry into the NBA is another threat if you recruit/develop well.  Even with those threats, if you go to 5-6 player classes, you're asking for trouble and instability.  IU's current class is 1-2 players short of the norm, but I'm quite alright with leaving it that way if the candidates are not worthy of an IU basketball scholarship.  Even with 11 scholarship players, there are not enough minutes to keep everyone happy and Archie has alluded to that in the past, so I won't be surprised if IU often runs with a scholarship or two open.  As has been said many times, Duke usually doesn't fill out their available scholarships.  Here's last year's roster:

https://247sports.com/college/duke/Season/2019-Basketball/ScholarshipDistribution/

10 scholarship players.  I can only imagine the meltdown if IU had only 10 scholarship players.  But but but...IU needs more shooters!!!  Not exactly.  Devonte Green is a very capable 3-point threat.  Al Durham was right at 40% prior to injuring his finger.  He tailed off after that, but given his willingness to work, I expect at least 37-38% barring injury.  Jerome Hunter was billed as a prolific 3-point shooter.  While his production is unknown, it's surely on par with any other unproven 2019 recruit.  I also expect Damezi Anderson to get better from behind the arc, especially if he wants to get on the floor.  He looks great...very smooth from distance in warmups.  If that ever translates to games, look out.  Robert Phinisee showed promise, but as the season wore on, shooting from distance was not where he was the most effective.  Armaan is another unknown, but between all the options, I'm confident that IU will have 3-4 players who can shoot  effectively from distance next season without any additional recruits signed.

...and for those fretting over the crystal ball picks, just remember what Jerome Hunter's crystal ball looked like before he picked IU...

https://247sports.com/Player/Jerome-Hunter-83176/high-school-144116/

Not saying IU will add a single additional recruit in the spring signing season, but it just proves that it's never over until it is.  IU will be better next season (my honest opinion) and get into the big boy tournament.  The non-con schedule looks to be tougher, but each year in the system, I expect Archie's players to execute better (get old stay old) and I expect the results to reflect that.  I'm not going to get all tore up if the team falls short of my expectations as there are too many unknown variables to accurately predict how a season will unfold.  I'll always be more focused on the long-term trendline.  Is IU basketball trending up?  Too early to tell, but I think it will, but it's always easier to predict when you have several years of history to review.  We simply don't have that here, which is why you should tune out the short-term noise and start plotting the long-term results.  That will tell you more about Archie than a single recruiting season will.  In that regard, we have Archie's time at Dayton, which is why he got hired in the 1st place.  If you have time, look at Archie's results at Dayton.  That's a better indication of his ability than two seasons (one beset by injuries) at IU.  

...but what do I know...I'm just a sunshine pumper. 

[FWIUFan]

I simply cannot understand all the angst over recruiting.  Alll the hand wringing on not getting an OAD or kids from outside the state actually choosing not to go to IU.  Seriously, how imprudent can they be.  Seem some have forgotten how we got here.  CTC had to go because he couldn't recruit the state any longer, had poor roster management, inability to attack the zone defense, incoherent in game substitutions, and no defensive mind set.  So we fire CTC and get CAM who had the reputation of a great up and coming coach.  

After hiring CAM, there are reports that he was not allowed to initially make adjustments to the roster due to administration meddling in his jurisdiction as head BB coach.  Many perceived the talent level as suboptimal.  Despite the shortcomings, CAM has a subpar season but a very good 1st recruiting class including a very prized Indiana Mr. Basketball and McDAA.  2nd season begins well.  Fans are reintroduced to the concept of defense for which they had been yearning.  Sadly, during the 2nd half of the season, the witnessed progress was interrupted by a long losing streak seemingly related to many injuries and presumed team disunion.  Toward the end, the train seemed to get back on the tracks but unfortunately we missed an NCAAT invite by 1 game.  We did have a post season but ended  before reaching the finals of the NIT.  Recruiting still has been good with the addition of a 2nd Indiana Mr. Basketball and McDAA recruit as the most heralded member.  2 Indiana Mr. Basketballs in successive years.  A feat that even the great CBK rarely accomplished.

Some fans just can't be made happy it would seem.  Now many fans are once again anxious.  The whining, criticizing , negativity, hand-wringing, and gnashing of teeth because "several" non-Indiana recruits have chosen to go elsewhere.  Chicken Little would be proud.  The sky is truly falling on IUBB and CAM because every scholly that was tendered wasn't accepted on immediately.  

Sometimes, I'm embarrassed to be an IUBB fan.  Critique of the teams or coaches performance is one thing.  However, the negativity over the product CAM is currently in the process of rebuilding is simply inane.  CAM is very early in the rebuilding that we as fans were demanding.  He still needs several years to complete the process.  I look back on his tenure thus far and I believe there has been progress to address the issues that resulted in CTC's dismissal.  Progress appears to be too slow for many fans who apparently thought he wave a magic wand and and have us in the finals of the NCAAT in year 2 or 3.  

I am please with CAM to this point.  I love the return to playing tough defense.  The offense that he has implemented has resulted in good shots being available.  The biggest problem is that the teams shooting abilities have lagged.  Time and coaching will remedy the faults I've seen to this point.  I would prefer we not judge the quality of the recruits by their star rating coming out of HS.  Rather, I hope CAM is recruiting with and eye to recruits that fit his system and coaching style.  I fully entrust that responsibility to him and his staff.  Only when we're finally "old" will we know CAM's ability and be able to make informed decisions on his abilities as coach of IUBB.  CBK whom I admire as the best BB coach of my lifetime stated that CAM was a great coach.  CBK could never be accused of pumping sunshine.  I will take his critique of CAM for now.  CBK also warned that fans would only appreciate CAM if given enough time to implement his changes--something CBK was hesitant to believe fans would do.  How perspicacious CBK now appears.  

This is just a long winded way to get to my thoughts:

1.  CAM appears to be the right coach at the current time and needs a patient and encouraging fanbase to remake IUBB

2.  The constant drumbeat of negativity because an 18yr old player actually chose a school other than IU is inane.

3.  We should all want players who want to be representing IU first and foremost, wo fit CAM's system and who will listen and execute.

4.  Players ability will ultimately be revealed by their play on the floor not by their star ratings

5.  In CAM I trust!  At least for the next 3yrs. 

[FKIM01]

5 minutes ago, FWIUFan said:

I simply cannot understand all the angst over recruiting...

[Feathery]

I have no issues with recruiting  

After hire class: Durham, Smith, Race, Moore

First class: Romeo, Phinisee, Hunter, Damezi, Jake, Fitzner

2nd class: TJD, Franklin, Brunk

Archie is bringing enough talent in to win. It’s just a matter of getting older and continuing to stack classes. I couldn’t care less if we add anyone to the current class. I’m very high on Franklins ability. 

The foundation has already been built. It’s now year 3, let’s win some games and make the NCAA’s. We have the talent to do it, so let’s go. 

[dgambill]

In the end less scholarship players could mean a more laser like focus on improving the kids and less headache for coach to find playing time and keep kids happy. I don’t mind 10-11 this year and next. 2021 however I want them ALL lol!!

[iuthruandthru]

I think IU should recruit players that can play basketball.  I like turtles

[Proud2BAHoosier]

I refuse to go the "sky is falling" route.....

[Threedom]

1 hour ago, Feathery said:

I have no issues with recruiting  

After hire class: Durham, Smith, Race, Moore

First class: Romeo, Phinisee, Hunter, Damezi, Jake, Fitzner

2nd class: TJD, Franklin, Brunk

Archie is bringing enough talent in to win. It’s just a matter of getting older and continuing to stack classes. I couldn’t care less if we add anyone to the current class. I’m very high on Franklins ability. 

The foundation has already been built. It’s now year 3, let’s win some games and make the NCAA’s. We have the talent to do it, so let’s go. 

2 issues I see with recruiting:  glaring need has not yet been added and recruiting does not appear to be on the upswing (actually the opposite at the moment).

[FKIM01]

36 minutes ago, Threedom said:

2 issues I see with recruiting:  glaring need has not yet been added and recruiting does not appear to be on the upswing (actually the opposite at the moment).

If you are referring to 3-point shooting, I don't think the need is nearly as great as conventional wisdom suggests.  I expect at least 3 players will shoot north of 35% next year:  Al Durham, Devonte Green and at least one of Jerome Hunter, Rob Phinisee, Damezi Anderson and/or Armaan Franklin.  IU may be a little light in this area, but I don't at all believe it will be the gaping hole it was last season.  As good as Romeo was, his 3-point shooting percentage and volume really hurt IU's overall numbers.  This senior class wasn't helpful either, but Romeo and the senior class won't be shooting 3's for IU next season.

[FW_Hoosier]

3 hours ago, FKIM01 said:

Is IU basketball trending up?  Too early to tell, but I think it will, but it's always easier to predict when you have several years of history to review.  We simply don't have that here, which is why you should tune out the short-term noise and start plotting the long-term results.  That will tell you more about Archie than a single recruiting season will.  In that regard, we have Archie's time at Dayton, which is why he got hired in the 1st place.  If you have time, look at Archie's results at Dayton.  That's a better indication of his ability than two seasons (one beset by injuries) at IU.  

This is where some of the disconnect is for me.  The more I look at Archie’s results at Dayton, the more skeptical I get.  The only seasons he’s had a top 30 Kenpom offense were his first two years at Dayton (#29 in 11-12 and #28 12-13), when he didn’t have “his guys” and Dayton lost in the first round of the NIT then missed the tourney the next year.  His offensive efficiency rankings on Kenpom have declined pretty much every year since then (#37 in 13-14, #75 in 14-15, #146 in 15-16, #53 in 16-17, #92 in 17-18, #82 in 18-19).  

He made the Elite 8 in his third year at Dayton, but they tied for 5th in the A10 that year and lost in the second round of the A10 tournament.  They then barely beat 6 seed OSU 60-59 and 3 seed Syracuse 55-53, beat 10 seed Stanford 82-72 in the Sweet 16, and then got soundly beat by Florida 62-52 in the Elite 8.  They honestly did a little better in 14-15, when they tied for second in the A10 and lost in the finals of the A10 tournament to VCU.  They then beat 11 seed Boise State in the First Four, 6 seed Providence in the Round of 64, and lost to 3 seed Oklahoma in the Round of 32.  Again, they failed to score more than 66 points in any of those NCAA tournament games.

It’s his last two years at Dayton that are particularly concerning to me, even though they won at least a share of the A10 regular season championship in both of those seasons.  In 15-16, they lost in the second round of the A10 tournament to St. Joe’s, then lost to Syracuse in the first round of the NCAA tourney 70-51.  In 16-17, they lost to Davidson in the first round of the A10 tournament, then lost to Wichita State in the first round of the NCAA tourney 64-58.  

Overall, if you take away his somewhat fluky run to the Elite 8 in his third year at Dayton (remember, Tom Crean’s Final Four run at Marquette was also a fluke) is his resume really all that impressive?  I see a lot of bad/mediocre offenses and early tournament exits, patterns which have also seemed to be a problem in his first two years at IU.  I really hope he can get it done, but in my mind, he still has a lot to do to prove he can coach at this level.

[FKIM01]

Points taken, but I attributed his less than elite numbers on his modest talent haul at Dayton.  Looking at wins & losses, he seemed to find a way to win more than his share at a lesser school.  Evidence that talent helps is in the relatively strong defense rankings last season.  As he turns his attention more to the offensive side of the ball, I expect those numbers to improve as well.

...but again, you make a reasoned point.  Hopefully, my "success is relative to talent" will play out as I suspect it will.  I think Archie is simply a winner however he gets there.  We shall see...

[IUFan4Life]

3 hours ago, FWIUFan said:

I simply cannot understand all the angst over recruiting.  Alll the hand wringing on not getting an OAD or kids from outside the state actually choosing not to go to IU.  Seriously, how imprudent can they be.  Seem some have forgotten how we got here.  CTC had to go because he couldn't recruit the state any longer, had poor roster management, inability to attack the zone defense, incoherent in game substitutions, and no defensive mind set.  So we fire CTC and get CAM who had the reputation of a great up and coming coach.  

After hiring CAM, there are reports that he was not allowed to initially make adjustments to the roster due to administration meddling in his jurisdiction as head BB coach.  Many perceived the talent level as suboptimal.  Despite the shortcomings, CAM has a subpar season but a very good 1st recruiting class including a very prized Indiana Mr. Basketball and McDAA.  2nd season begins well.  Fans are reintroduced to the concept of defense for which they had been yearning.  Sadly, during the 2nd half of the season, the witnessed progress was interrupted by a long losing streak seemingly related to many injuries and presumed team disunion.  Toward the end, the train seemed to get back on the tracks but unfortunately we missed an NCAAT invite by 1 game.  We did have a post season but ended  before reaching the finals of the NIT.  Recruiting still has been good with the addition of a 2nd Indiana Mr. Basketball and McDAA recruit as the most heralded member.  2 Indiana Mr. Basketballs in successive years.  A feat that even the great CBK rarely accomplished.

Some fans just can't be made happy it would seem.  Now many fans are once again anxious.  The whining, criticizing , negativity, hand-wringing, and gnashing of teeth because "several" non-Indiana recruits have chosen to go elsewhere.  Chicken Little would be proud.  The sky is truly falling on IUBB and CAM because every scholly that was tendered wasn't accepted on immediately.  

Sometimes, I'm embarrassed to be an IUBB fan.  Critique of the teams or coaches performance is one thing.  However, the negativity over the product CAM is currently in the process of rebuilding is simply inane.  CAM is very early in the rebuilding that we as fans were demanding.  He still needs several years to complete the process.  I look back on his tenure thus far and I believe there has been progress to address the issues that resulted in CTC's dismissal.  Progress appears to be too slow for many fans who apparently thought he wave a magic wand and and have us in the finals of the NCAAT in year 2 or 3.  

I am please with CAM to this point.  I love the return to playing tough defense.  The offense that he has implemented has resulted in good shots being available.  The biggest problem is that the teams shooting abilities have lagged.  Time and coaching will remedy the faults I've seen to this point.  I would prefer we not judge the quality of the recruits by their star rating coming out of HS.  Rather, I hope CAM is recruiting with and eye to recruits that fit his system and coaching style.  I fully entrust that responsibility to him and his staff.  Only when we're finally "old" will we know CAM's ability and be able to make informed decisions on his abilities as coach of IUBB.  CBK whom I admire as the best BB coach of my lifetime stated that CAM was a great coach.  CBK could never be accused of pumping sunshine.  I will take his critique of CAM for now.  CBK also warned that fans would only appreciate CAM if given enough time to implement his changes--something CBK was hesitant to believe fans would do.  How perspicacious CBK now appears.  

This is just a long winded way to get to my thoughts:

1.  CAM appears to be the right coach at the current time and needs a patient and encouraging fanbase to remake IUBB

2.  The constant drumbeat of negativity because an 18yr old player actually chose a school other than IU is inane.

3.  We should all want players who want to be representing IU first and foremost, wo fit CAM's system and who will listen and execute.

4.  Players ability will ultimately be revealed by their play on the floor not by their star ratings

5.  In CAM I trust!  At least for the next 3yrs. 

Thank you! Sanity does exist on this board. 😃

[FW_Hoosier]

4 minutes ago, FKIM01 said:

Points taken, but I attributed his less than elite numbers on his modest talent haul at Dayton.  Looking at wins & losses, he seemed to find a way to win more than his share at a lesser school.  Evidence that talent helps is in the relatively strong defense rankings last season.  As he turns his attention more to the offensive side of the ball, I expect those numbers to improve as well.

...but again, you make a reasoned point.  Hopefully, my "success is relative to talent" will play out as I suspect it will.  I think Archie is simply a winner however he gets there.  We shall see...

The thing is, your point brings us right back to the concern about our recruiting right now.  If Archie needs more talent than he had at Dayton to put a competitive offense on the floor, it’s concerning that it appears that Hunter and TJD are the only top 50 recruits he’s recruited that we’re going to be putting on the floor through the 20-21 season, especially considering Hunter’s health problems.  Players like Phinisee, Anderson, Thompson, and Franklin very well can outplay their rankings, and there’s definitely a lot of time left to sign a good 2020 class.  But landing high-level talent is important, and we don’t have much momentum right now.  That’s why the recent misses/potential misses on Brooks,  Watford, Quinones, and Morton are frustrating.

[FKIM01]

Just now, FW_Hoosier said:

The thing is, your point brings us right back to the concern about our recruiting right now.  If Archie needs more talent than he had at Dayton to put a competitive offense on the floor, it’s concerning that it appears that Hunter and TJD are the only top 50 recruits he’s recruited that we’re going to be putting on the floor through the 20-21 season, especially considering Hunter’s health problems.  Players like Phinisee, Anderson, Thompson, and Franklin very well can outplay their rankings, and there’s definitely a lot of time left to sign a good 2020 class.  But landing high-level talent is important, and we don’t have much momentum right now.  That’s why the recent misses/potential misses on Brooks,  Watford, Quinones, and Morton are frustrating.

I don't know if high level talent is critical as much as highER level talent is.  I fully expect Archie to maintain a markedly better talent pool than he had at Dayton.  Anecdotally, he seems to get more from less, so he may have great success with mostly 50-150 talent, with the occasional elite talent mixed in.  Obviously, I can't prove that hypothesis until more time passes, but I have a gut feeling that we will see exactly that...a continued trending up and along with that, an improving talent pool. 

It's no secret that Archie will have to trend up a fair amount from where he has IU now and then at least mostly maintain that level, showing consistency and success or he will eventually be shown the door.  Lots of generalities in that statement, I understand, but the decision to renew contracts or show a coach the door is not one of absolutes.  If the program trends up to a consistently strong one, competing for conference titles and having success in the NCAA tournament, he stays.  If the program stays where it is now or fluctuates up and down like it did under Crean and/or has behavioral problems like Sampson had, Archie won't retire at IU.

[Long Duk Dong]

1 hour ago, FW_Hoosier said:

This is where some of the disconnect is for me.  The more I look at Archie’s results at Dayton, the more skeptical I get.  The only seasons he’s had a top 30 Kenpom offense were his first two years at Dayton (#29 in 11-12 and #28 12-13), when he didn’t have “his guys” and Dayton lost in the first round of the NIT then missed the tourney the next year.  His offensive efficiency rankings on Kenpom have declined pretty much every year since then (#37 in 13-14, #75 in 14-15, #146 in 15-16, #53 in 16-17, #92 in 17-18, #82 in 18-19).  

He made the Elite 8 in his third year at Dayton, but they tied for 5th in the A10 that year and lost in the second round of the A10 tournament.  They then barely beat 6 seed OSU 60-59 and 3 seed Syracuse 55-53, beat 10 seed Stanford 82-72 in the Sweet 16, and then got soundly beat by Florida 62-52 in the Elite 8.  They honestly did a little better in 14-15, when they tied for second in the A10 and lost in the finals of the A10 tournament to VCU.  They then beat 11 seed Boise State in the First Four, 6 seed Providence in the Round of 64, and lost to 3 seed Oklahoma in the Round of 32.  Again, they failed to score more than 66 points in any of those NCAA tournament games.

It’s his last two years at Dayton that are particularly concerning to me, even though they won at least a share of the A10 regular season championship in both of those seasons.  In 15-16, they lost in the second round of the A10 tournament to St. Joe’s, then lost to Syracuse in the first round of the NCAA tourney 70-51.  In 16-17, they lost to Davidson in the first round of the A10 tournament, then lost to Wichita State in the first round of the NCAA tourney 64-58.  

Overall, if you take away his somewhat fluky run to the Elite 8 in his third year at Dayton (remember, Tom Crean’s Final Four run at Marquette was also a fluke) is his resume really all that impressive?  I see a lot of bad/mediocre offenses and early tournament exits, patterns which have also seemed to be a problem in his first two years at IU.  I really hope he can get it done, but in my mind, he still has a lot to do to prove he can coach at this level.

Yeah, the resume is pretty mediocre. Don't get me wrong, I like CAM but my goodness, how many shots does Glass think he's going to get? He had a chance to move on from someone who he didn't hire and was a terrible coach and this was the best he could do?

Minnesota could have made that hire.