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ESPN Chasing Ghosts Series

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I chuckled at this:

Quote

You're the president at Indiana, and you have been presented with three choices in this purely hypothetical scenario: Brad Stevens returns to the state to take over at IU, Bob Knight disciple Chris Beard is placed in charge of the Hoosiers program, or you stick with Archie Miller to deliver on the immense promise with which he arrived in Bloomington in 2017. What's your decision?

I would ask Brad Stevens if he preferred four horses or six horses for the chariot I'd bring to the airport when he arrived.

 

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I guess I was chasing ghost last night because I decided to watch an old IU game to get my spirits up about IU basketball.  I watched the 1992 regional final against UCLA and just remember how well that team moved and shot the ball.

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1 hour ago, IU Scott said:

I guess I was chasing ghost last night because I decided to watch an old IU game to get my spirits up about IU basketball.  I watched the 1992 regional final against UCLA and just remember how well that team moved and shot the ball.

Just for the fun of it I looked at our stats for that game because it was before all the analytics came into play and see if you think this was an inefficient game.  We shot only 11 3' while making 5 with the final score IU 106-79.

FG% 34-59       58%

2P%  29-48      60%

3P%  5-11        46%

FT%  33-39      85%

For me this is almost a perfect game where you score efficiently from all 3 levels and to me that is what is missing from today's game.

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2 hours ago, IU Scott said:

Just for the fun of it I looked at our stats for that game because it was before all the analytics came into play and see if you think this was an inefficient game.  We shot only 11 3' while making 5 with the final score IU 106-79.

FG% 34-59       58%

2P%  29-48      60%

3P%  5-11        46%

FT%  33-39      85%

For me this is almost a perfect game where you score efficiently from all 3 levels and to me that is what is missing from today's game.

Those stats tell me there was a lot of offensive movement on the floor,no standing around,no pick and roll,no dribbling until the shot clock was down to zero.

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7 minutes ago, HoosierJax said:

Those stats tell me there was a lot of offensive movement on the floor,no standing around,no pick and roll,no dribbling until the shot clock was down to zero.

Yes, the way basketball was meant to be played.  After the ball got across mid court there were very few  dribbles and everything was on pass and cut off a screen.  Also I never remember either team ever having to throw up a shot at the end of the shot clock because both played at a quick pace.

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The author ranked Archie Miller behind both Crean and Davis?

Lots of credibility lost there.

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47 minutes ago, FKIM01 said:

The author ranked Archie Miller behind both Crean and Davis?

Lots of credibility lost there.

That's what I thought. But then, I thought about Davis, taking us to a NCAAT championship game. Been many other coaches who could only wish for that.

And then, Crean.  Mr. Sweet 16.

It's up to Archie, to live up to what went on before him. And I am not talking Knight.

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54 minutes ago, FKIM01 said:

The author ranked Archie Miller behind both Crean and Davis?

Lots of credibility lost there.

Well Archie hasn't accomplished anything yet at IU...but he did bring up Davis and Sampson's post IU stuff.

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1 hour ago, FKIM01 said:

The author ranked Archie Miller behind both Crean and Davis?

Lots of credibility lost there.

I read it as the author ranking them in terms of what they've accomplished at IU, not who the author thought was the best coach. 

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1 hour ago, FKIM01 said:

The author ranked Archie Miller behind both Crean and Davis?

Lots of credibility lost there.

Who lost credibility.  The author or Archie?

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I actually think he ranked them well.  CAM hasn't done anything at IU yet.  and he did mention that he did well at Dayton. We will have to wait and see how he ranks in another 3 years

Edited by IowaHoosierFan

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6 minutes ago, BGleas said:

I read it as the author ranking them in terms of what they've accomplished at IU, not who the author thought was the best coach. 

That’s the way they were ranking them. It stated so in the article saying the jury is still out. 

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6 hours ago, IU Scott said:

Just for the fun of it I looked at our stats for that game because it was before all the analytics came into play and see if you think this was an inefficient game.  We shot only 11 3' while making 5 with the final score IU 106-79.

FG% 34-59       58%

2P%  29-48      60%

3P%  5-11        46%

FT%  33-39      85%

For me this is almost a perfect game where you score efficiently from all 3 levels and to me that is what is missing from today's game.

The 33-39 from the line jumps out at me.  Both the number of attempts and the percentage made.

I'm not the die-hard 1980's style basketball guy you are, but I will say a stat line like that would cause little Johnny to stir around a little bit

Edited by 5fouls
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55 minutes ago, BGleas said:

I read it as the author ranking them in terms of what they've accomplished at IU, not who the author thought was the best coach. 

That's like ranking total points for a basketball player who played a whole season vs. one that played a few games.  Sure, Davis started out pretty well, but his last three seasons at IU were pretty poor, considering they were years 4, 5 & 6 on the job.

I wouldn't rank Miller at all at this stage in the game.

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3 minutes ago, FW_Hoosier said:

At this point, Archie’s coaching resume isn’t even close to Crean’s.

Well, no.  He hasn't had 9 years at IU yet either.  Fred Glass didn't hire him expecting to go backwards, though.

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1 hour ago, 5fouls said:

The 33-39 from the line jumps out at me.  Both the number of attempts and the percentage made.

I'm not the die-hard 1980's style basketball guy you are, but I will say a stat line like that would cause little Johnny to stir around a little but.  

Another big difference was how teams ran the fast break where in this game I scored layups on about 6 3 on 1 fast brakes.  Today everyone would go out to the 3 point line instead of running the lanes like you were taught to.

Also the game I talked about was not the 80's style of ball because it was 1992 LOL!

Edited by IU Scott

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31 minutes ago, FKIM01 said:

That's like ranking total points for a basketball player who played a whole season vs. one that played a few games.  Sure, Davis started out pretty well, but his last three seasons at IU were pretty poor, considering they were years 4, 5 & 6 on the job.

I wouldn't rank Miller at all at this stage in the game.

Agree. Archie has an "incomplete" as of today.

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36 minutes ago, FW_Hoosier said:

At this point, Archie’s coaching resume isn’t even close to Crean’s.

Correct, but Crean has a good 15 years on him. Hell, Crean was coaching Marquette when Miller was still playing.

Lining up apples to apples (Crean at Marquette vs Miller at Dayton), they're pretty close. Several tournament appearances, similar winning percentages and the one standout season. Biggest difference, Crean made it one game further in his standout season.

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1 hour ago, Zlinedavid said:

Correct, but Crean has a good 15 years on him. Hell, Crean was coaching Marquette when Miller was still playing.

Lining up apples to apples (Crean at Marquette vs Miller at Dayton), they're pretty close. Several tournament appearances, similar winning percentages and the one standout season. Biggest difference, Crean made it one game further in his standout season.

I took a look at this, and it’s kind of surprising how closely the first 8 seasons of their careers line up.  Both spent their first six seasons in mid-major conferences, then moved up to bigger conferences after that.  (Granted, unlike Crean, Archie had the disadvantage of switching programs when he changed conferences.)  Archie made his run to the Elite Eight in his third season, and Crean made his run to the Final Four in his fourth season.  Some more comparisons:

Crean

Record: 165-86 (.657)

Conference Finishes: 4, 3, 2, 1, 8, 9, 4, 5

Season Finishes: No Tourney (1x), NIT First Round (2x), NIT Quarters (1x), R64 (3x), Final Four (1x)

NCAA Tourney Record: 4-4

Kenpom: No Data, No Data, 11 (30 Off./11 Def.), 15 (2 Off./109 Def.), 92 (44 Off./182 Def.), 98 (62 Off./171 Def.), 36 (27 Off./78 Def.), 38 (62 Off./30 Def.)

Archie

Record: 174-94 (.649)

Conference Finishes: 5, 11, 5, 2, 1, 1, 6, 9

Season Finishes: No Tourney (2x), NIT First Round (1x), NIT Quarters (1x), R64 (2x), R32 (1x), Elite 8 (1x)

NCAA Tourney Record: 5-4

Kenpom: 68 (29 Off./160 Def.), 67 (28 Off./145 Def.), 42 (37 Off./72 Def.), 42 (75 Off./30 Def.), 59 (146 Off./15 Def.), 39 (53 Off./43 Def.), 71 (92 Off./65 Def.), 52 (82 Off./32 Def.)

Edited by FW_Hoosier
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40 minutes ago, FW_Hoosier said:

I took a look at this, and it’s kind of surprising how closely the first 8 seasons of their careers line up.  Both spent their first six seasons in mid-major conferences, then moved up to bigger conferences after that.  (Granted, unlike Crean, Archie had the disadvantage of switching programs when he changed conferences.)  Archie made his run to the Elite Eight in his third season, and Crean made his run to the Final Four in his fourth season.  Some more comparisons:

Crean

Record: 165-86 (.657)

Conference Finishes: 4, 3, 2, 1, 8, 9, 4, 5

Season Finishes: No Tourney (1x), NIT First Round (2x), NIT Quarters (1x), R64 (3x), Final Four (1x)

NCAA Tourney Record: 4-4

Kenpom: No Data, No Data, 11 (30 Off./11 Def.), 15 (2 Off./109 Def.), 92 (44 Off./182 Def.), 98 (62 Off./171 Def.), 36 (27 Off./78 Def.), 38 (62 Off./30 Def.)

Archie

Record: 174-94 (.649)

Conference Finishes: 5, 11, 5, 2, 1, 1, 6, 9

Season Finishes: No Tourney (2x), NIT First Round (1x), NIT Quarters (1x), R64 (2x), R32 (1x), Elite 8 (1x)

NCAA Tourney Record: 5-4

Kenpom: 68 (29 Off./160 Def.), 67 (28 Off./145 Def.), 42 (37 Off./72 Def.), 42 (75 Off./30 Def.), 59 (146 Off./15 Def.), 39 (53 Off./43 Def.), 71 (92 Off./65 Def.), 52 (82 Off./32 Def.)

Great comparison FW.  And I would like to add that you are a valued member of our site. It has not gone unnoticed by me.   Thanks for all you do. Keeping HSN.... Great !

Edited by milehiiu
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2 hours ago, FW_Hoosier said:

I took a look at this, and it’s kind of surprising how closely the first 8 seasons of their careers line up.  Both spent their first six seasons in mid-major conferences, then moved up to bigger conferences after that.  (Granted, unlike Crean, Archie had the disadvantage of switching programs when he changed conferences.)  Archie made his run to the Elite Eight in his third season, and Crean made his run to the Final Four in his fourth season.  Some more comparisons:

Crean

Record: 165-86 (.657)

Conference Finishes: 4, 3, 2, 1, 8, 9, 4, 5

Season Finishes: No Tourney (1x), NIT First Round (2x), NIT Quarters (1x), R64 (3x), Final Four (1x)

NCAA Tourney Record: 4-4

Kenpom: No Data, No Data, 11 (30 Off./11 Def.), 15 (2 Off./109 Def.), 92 (44 Off./182 Def.), 98 (62 Off./171 Def.), 36 (27 Off./78 Def.), 38 (62 Off./30 Def.)

Archie

Record: 174-94 (.649)

Conference Finishes: 5, 11, 5, 2, 1, 1, 6, 9

Season Finishes: No Tourney (2x), NIT First Round (1x), NIT Quarters (1x), R64 (2x), R32 (1x), Elite 8 (1x)

NCAA Tourney Record: 5-4

Kenpom: 68 (29 Off./160 Def.), 67 (28 Off./145 Def.), 42 (37 Off./72 Def.), 42 (75 Off./30 Def.), 59 (146 Off./15 Def.), 39 (53 Off./43 Def.), 71 (92 Off./65 Def.), 52 (82 Off./32 Def.)

The two things that stand out to me:

1. The reverse nature of their offensive and defensive focuses. Crean had consistently good to great offenses and good to horrendous defenses. The degree of swing was the same, just reversed with Archie's defense and offense.

2. Archie didn't have a DWade. Nobody close even. I can't say for sure that anyone he had at Dayton played in the NBA. You could take it one step further and say that overall, Crean was working with better talent on the whole, but that's offset by saying that CUSA/Big East at the time were tougher conferences.

 

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2 hours ago, Zlinedavid said:

The two things that stand out to me:

1. The reverse nature of their offensive and defensive focuses. Crean had consistently good to great offenses and good to horrendous defenses. The degree of swing was the same, just reversed with Archie's defense and offense.

2. Archie didn't have a DWade. Nobody close even. I can't say for sure that anyone he had at Dayton played in the NBA. You could take it one step further and say that overall, Crean was working with better talent on the whole, but that's offset by saying that CUSA/Big East at the time were tougher conferences.

 

Even though stats definitely don’t tell the whole story, I thought the Kenpom numbers kind of bear out the general impression I have of both coaches.  With Crean, you see the elite teams (#11 and #15 overall) followed up by two bad years (#92 and #98), followed up by two more pretty good years (#36 and #38).  With Archie, his teams are more consistent (all in the range of #39 to #71 overall), but he’s never really put any elite team on the floor (only one top 40 team overall compared to Crean’s four).  Crean is more offensive-minded and has a higher ceiling, Archie is more defensive-minded and has a higher floor.  All of that adds up to almost strangely identical tournament resumes through their first 8 years.

I also think it’s unfair to hold D-Wade against Crean.  All great teams have elite players... Coaches are hired to find them.  And on that note, the closest player that Archie has had to D-Wade is Romeo.  (Not saying Romeo was as good as D-Wade, but he was an elite college player and is going to be a legit pro.)  We all saw how that went.

Edited by FW_Hoosier
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9 hours ago, FW_Hoosier said:

I took a look at this, and it’s kind of surprising how closely the first 8 seasons of their careers line up.  Both spent their first six seasons in mid-major conferences, then moved up to bigger conferences after that.  (Granted, unlike Crean, Archie had the disadvantage of switching programs when he changed conferences.)  Archie made his run to the Elite Eight in his third season, and Crean made his run to the Final Four in his fourth season.  Some more comparisons:

Crean

Record: 165-86 (.657)

Conference Finishes: 4, 3, 2, 1, 8, 9, 4, 5

Season Finishes: No Tourney (1x), NIT First Round (2x), NIT Quarters (1x), R64 (3x), Final Four (1x)

NCAA Tourney Record: 4-4

Kenpom: No Data, No Data, 11 (30 Off./11 Def.), 15 (2 Off./109 Def.), 92 (44 Off./182 Def.), 98 (62 Off./171 Def.), 36 (27 Off./78 Def.), 38 (62 Off./30 Def.)

Archie

Record: 174-94 (.649)

Conference Finishes: 5, 11, 5, 2, 1, 1, 6, 9

Season Finishes: No Tourney (2x), NIT First Round (1x), NIT Quarters (1x), R64 (2x), R32 (1x), Elite 8 (1x)

NCAA Tourney Record: 5-4

Kenpom: 68 (29 Off./160 Def.), 67 (28 Off./145 Def.), 42 (37 Off./72 Def.), 42 (75 Off./30 Def.), 59 (146 Off./15 Def.), 39 (53 Off./43 Def.), 71 (92 Off./65 Def.), 52 (82 Off./32 Def.)

All of these comparisons to Crean, where arguably Crean comes off looking better, are not doing anything to help the idea that we upgraded.

I look at next year's roster and am just not seeing the optimism that some of you have about how well we can do.  There are question marks all over the floor.

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