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Rothstein's Big Ten Forecast


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Yikes, 10th!

This kind of shows where we are as a program. Some programs (like MSU), even when they don't have good enough rosters, get the benefit of the doubt. We don't have that at all. Slowly but surely I'm starting to realize IU men's basketball is not a good program at this point. It'll take years of success to gain the respect back. 

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Two thing from his write-up stick out to me:

  1. I'm tired of hearing about what IU lost from last year being a reason we are going to be bad/worse next year. It's just lazy IMO and I've seen it in almost every preseason ranking about IU. If that was the case, then fUK and Duke would be terrible every year since they lose so many great players. It isn't about what you lost, it is about what you bring in/back. fUK and Duke reload every year so it doesn't matter what they lost. People ranking Duke #3 in the preseason must be crazy since they lost the #1 & #3 pick in the draft! Evaulate the team based on how you think Phinisee/Green/Hunter/TJD/Brunk/Smith/etc will play this year and how Coach Miller performs in year 3.
  2. Several of the breakout players listed already seem to have broken out to me. 
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2 hours ago, addictedtoIU said:

Yikes, 10th!

This kind of shows where we are as a program. Some programs (like MSU), even when they don't have good enough rosters, get the benefit of the doubt. We don't have that at all. Slowly but surely I'm starting to realize IU men's basketball is not a good program at this point. It'll take years of success to gain the respect back. 

Agreed. We are like the old lady at the bar who was hot years ago but now just looking for someone to gives us some attention.

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11 minutes ago, Long Duk Dong said:

Well let's be honest. Just about any AD would do over Fred Glass right now. UK, OSU, MSU, UM, ND, etc. would be great but the little lizard on the Geico commercials would be an upgrade at this point.

You couldn't name 3 other AD's in the country and tell what their qualifications are for the job.

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1 hour ago, CoachSS said:

Typical response from a national guy who doesn't follow the Big Ten. No real surprise from someone so out of touch. 

You're right about the guy doesn't know sh!t about Big 10, but at the same time, there's some truth in it. Truth is we've been down so many years (sans occasional spotlights too far and few in between); national guys like him got no reason to give us respect. In the next few months, I like to see what other national guys predict us in the Big 10. Probably better than 10th, but maybe not so much. 

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9 minutes ago, addictedtoIU said:

You're right about the guy doesn't know sh!t about Big 10, but at the same time, there's some truth in it. Truth is we've been down so many years (sans occasional spotlights too far and few in between); national guys like him got no reason to give us respect. In the next few months, I like to see what other national guys predict us in the Big 10. Probably better than 10th, but maybe not so much. 

Actually I think he is one of the most knowledgeably analyst out there but I think he is wrong on this one.

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Responding to Rothstein on Matt Denison's radio show, Zach Osterman had Indiana 7th or 8th in the conference and admitted that was a touch optimistic. A bit's changed since April 29, but in his first Offseason Rankings Alex Bozich had us 9th. Rothstein's not a guy I follow, and I don't put a lot of stock in his opinions, but he's not far off from what guys who specifically cover the Indiana beat are saying.

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All I can say is that, yes, we need to improve as a team and individually over last season's play and both the players and staff need to prove themselves this season.  Players need to show they can play consistently hard and smart and the coaches need to prove they can develop the skills and attitudes of those players.

Each season is a clean slate and I truly believe Archie Miller knows how to build and run a successful program.  That said, it's season #3 under his direction and it's time to see progress.  I put little stock in preseason predictions, but I for one would find a 10th place finish to be both extremely disappointing and surprising.

Neither I or most fans expect us to finish at the top of the B10, but there can be no excuses for another season like this past one.

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3 minutes ago, IowaHoosierFan said:

I wouldn't be surprised by 10th bases on what we have seen the last 2 years but i would be highly disappointed.  Its time to step up, make the plays, hit the shots, and shut every one up.  Its put up or shut time. 

If that happens, Miller AND Glass need to be shown the door.

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19 minutes ago, IowaHoosierFan said:

I wouldn't be surprised by 10th bases on what we have seen the last 2 years but i would be highly disappointed.  Its time to step up, make the plays, hit the shots, and shut every one up.  Its put up or shut time. 

I will bet we're a top 5 Big Ten team. 

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When thinking about ways in which this team might be better (or worse) than last year, I think it's easy to overlook how easy we were to play against last year. Regardless of the other team's strengths or weaknesses, regardless of who was hurt, what weaknesses a given lineup might have, they would just pack the paint. We didn't have the size to bully through a clogged lane and we didn't have the shooting to go over it. If they had trouble guarding quick bigs, or strong bigs, or quick 1's or long shooters, or any other of a dozen different weaknesses, it didn't matter. They could clog the lane and cover up any shortcoming. This year, I think we have a little more roster versatility. I think we will have enough shooting to keep teams honest, between Davis, TJD and Brunk (or even Smith) we have enough size/versatility to really attack weaknesses. 

If Hunter is healthy, I think the downgrade in going from Romeo to him is small (when you consider Romeo's shooting struggles), the downgrade from Morgan to TJD is probably significant, but hopefully by year's end it will be close. So, then we just need a little normal development to cover that difference. To me, that leaves us with about the same talent as last year. With a better fit and hopefully better health, that puts us solidly in the tournament. If someone over performs then we are even better. 

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I know the BIG is down in general this year but I just don't know how we finish in the top half. Every year I think we are a top 3-5 range and get sadly disappointed. This year 10th would not shock me in the least. I hope they surprise me but at this point based on what we lost and what we add I just don't see it. I will tamper my expectations and hope like heck to be surprised. 

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4 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

Someone clarify this for me.  IU will miss Romeo and Juwan tremendously, but Purdue will not miss Carsen at all (or so the prediction indicates).

 

Purdue lost three 1,000 point scorers and got better last season.  IU brought in a top 10 recruiting class and didn’t really improve at all.  They’re going to get the benefit of the doubt until proven otherwise.

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