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Rothstein's Big Ten Forecast


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13 minutes ago, FW_Hoosier said:

Purdue lost three 1,000 point scorers and got better last season.  IU brought in a top 10 recruiting class and didn’t really improve at all.  They’re going to get the benefit of the doubt until proven otherwise.

And how many games did IU players lose to injury last season. Compared to PU ?   Not a reflection on you.  Just saying. 

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19 minutes ago, FW_Hoosier said:

Purdue lost three 1,000 point scorers and got better last season.  IU brought in a top 10 recruiting class and didn’t really improve at all.  They’re going to get the benefit of the doubt until proven otherwise.

Then, as a reporter, don't position it as "IU is doomed because they lost Romeo and Juwan".  Otherwise you also have to say "Purdue lost Carsen Edwards.  How can they be better".  challenge Rothstein and every other prognosticator not be be chicken-poop about what they are saying.  He is essentially saying that he has faith that Matt Painter can help Purdue rise to the occasion despite a huge personnel loss, but Archie Miller can't do the same for Indiana.  And, no, I'm not saying IU should finish ahead of Purdue.  

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The simple way to look at it is how to replace Romeo and Juwan statistically, but I think that oversimplifies things personally.

I anticipate the front court to be much improved due to increased size and depth, for instance. Stat-wise, TJD and Brunk should be able to come fairly close to replacing Morgan's production, with potential improvement from Davis, Thompson, and Smith covering the difference. Defensively, though, that group should be much better if for no other reason than we won't need to run Morgan out there for 30+ minutes at the 5 so frequently (that's not a knock on JMo, his effort last year was considerable; he was just undersized and overworked).

The bigger question in my mind is the back court. If healthy, Phinisee for a full year at the point should be fine. I'm also an Al Durham fan, and expect to see him take a step forward. Realistically, though, this team will rise or fall based on the productivity they get from Green, Hunter, Anderson, and Franklin. I think that group could easily match or surpass what Langford gave the team last year, but it could also easily come up short. 

Everyone will focus on 3pt shooting, and an improvement there is important, but the overall production offensively and defensively from the 2 and 3 spots will make or break the season, IMO.

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6 minutes ago, IUProfessor said:

The simple way to look at it is how to replace Romeo and Juwan statistically, but I think that oversimplifies things personally.

I anticipate the front court to be much improved due to increased size and depth, for instance. Stat-wise, TJD and Brunk should be able to come fairly close to replacing Morgan's production, with potential improvement from Davis, Thompson, and Smith covering the difference. Defensively, though, that group should be much better if for no other reason than we won't need to run Morgan out there for 30+ minutes at the 5 so frequently (that's not a knock on JMo, his effort last year was considerable; he was just undersized and overworked).

The bigger question in my mind is the back court. If healthy, Phinisee for a full year at the point should be fine. I'm also an Al Durham fan, and expect to see him take a step forward. Realistically, though, this team will rise or fall based on the productivity they get from Green, Hunter, Anderson, and Franklin. I think that group could easily match or surpass what Langford gave the team last year, but it could also easily come up short. 

Everyone will focus on 3pt shooting, and an improvement there is important, but the overall production offensively and defensively from the 2 and 3 spots will make or break the season, IMO.

And with that post Prof. Proves why you are the professor.  And the rest of us are mere fans, and students of the game.

Always a delight when you visit. 

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1 hour ago, Billingsley99 said:

I know the BIG is down in general this year but I just don't know how we finish in the top half. Every year I think we are a top 3-5 range and get sadly disappointed. This year 10th would not shock me in the least. I hope they surprise me but at this point based on what we lost and what we add I just don't see it. I will tamper my expectations and hope like heck to be surprised. 

The thing is that I would have picked teams like PSU, Iowa and Minnesota ahead of us but they all had some unexpected guys leave.

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For me the fascinating thing about Rothstein's prediction is that he included Hunter as one of his top freshmen -- which implies that he is included in placing IU at 10th place.  If IU finishes 10th with a healthy Hunter and misses the NCAA for fourth straight year things are going to get very uncomfortable for folks.

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23 minutes ago, The Daily Hoosier said:

For me the fascinating thing about Rothstein's prediction is that he included Hunter as one of his top freshmen -- which implies that he is included in placing IU at 10th place.  If IU finishes 10th with a healthy Hunter and misses the NCAA for fourth straight year things are going to get very uncomfortable for folks.

I agree. If we miss for a 4th straight year I dont care if no one is healthy it will be very uncomfortable. 

An  Elder at my church who is a relative of a head coach for one of the big sports programs at IU shared with me that he was told Glass informed CAM and CTA its NCAA Tourney  and Bowl or bust.  True idk but this relative is close enough that coach does not call him by his first name 😀

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Just now, Billingsley99 said:

I agree. If we miss first a 4th straight year I dont care if no one is healthy it will be very uncomfortable. 

A Elder at my church who is a relative of a head coach for one of the big sports programs at IU shared with me that he was told Glass informed CAM and CTA its NCAA Tourney  and Bowl or bust.  True idk but this relative is close enough that coach does not call him by his first name 😀

I would think Glass would have to worry about losing his job before the coaches if this happens.

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39 minutes ago, IUwins0708 said:

If we finish 10th in next years big ten, I’m not sure Archie survives.  Nor should he survive IF that’s the case. 

I agree as I think the powers to be would as well. I used to hate the term reload. I would love for IU Basketball and reload to go together again. I am not 1 that is good for the long term 20 year rebuilds

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1 hour ago, IUwins0708 said:

If we finish 10th in next years big ten, I’m not sure Archie survives.  Nor should he survive IF that’s the case. 

He'd get a 4th year IMO simply because of the buyout but he'd probably be wishing he was fired at the point.  Hard to see how Fred would survive that in any scenario though.  He along with Shoulders are the 2 scalps everyone should be calling for.  Archie will get a year 4 barring an implosion this season. 

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18 minutes ago, dbmhoosier said:

He'd get a 4th year IMO simply because of the buyout but he'd probably be wishing he was fired at the point.  Hard to see how Fred would survive that in any scenario though.  He along with Shoulders are the 2 scalps everyone should be calling for.  Archie will get a year 4 barring an implosion this season. 

This reminds me.  I got the official election results email yesterday or the day before.  I sent a response back that said b.s., I know hundreds from here and Facebook that have never voted but did this year.  

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I hate how everyone looks over the fact that we were basically the walking wounded last year. If we were healthy we easily make the tourney and everyone is settled way down but instead something  completely out of Archie control happens and we bash him..feel bad for him it really is just terrible luck.  I think we should give him another year or two even if we miss the tourney this year I love how he is recruiting the state and the fact that IU is playing tough D again. IU signs Mr. basketball In back to back years and very possibly could be 3 years straight and were done with him?  Gesh. See the big picture here. You fire Archie and you most likely see a mass exit of transfers and then you start the rebuild over again before Archie could even get started. Come on guys it’s ok to be disappointed but let’s be smart and look at the big picture here and I know nobody wants to hear that but it’s the truth. 

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Archie millers FIRST recruiting class will just be SOPHOMORES this year and we are already this negative my gosh people get a grip!! When they are seniors in 2 years and we don’t make the tourney then heck ya you better believe Miller seat will be hot but until then enjoy the ride. Looks like 2 more  great Indiana boys are close to joining the 2020 class! Isn’t that what everyone wanted? Recruiting the state? That’s all I heard for years about Crean. Miller will get this thing rolling let’s just have ya I’m about to say the word everyone cringes at hearing in today’s world “PATIENCE” 

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1 hour ago, 5 championships said:

 Nobody remembers when we were predicted to finish like 12th in Archie first year and we ended up at 6th. Amazing what happens when you have enough players healthy to practice!! LOL

I don't remember that, so I googled it.  6 projections had us pegged from 7th -10th.  

The defense is the only thing we can trust.  I think we do have depth.  The only question is are there guys that can get buckets at key times to win close games?

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3 hours ago, NotIThatLives said:

I don't remember that, so I googled it.  6 projections had us pegged from 7th -10th.  

The defense is the only thing we can trust.  I think we do have depth.  The only question is are there guys that can get buckets at key times to win close games?

I’m almost 100 percent sure there was a prediction or two they had us 12th. I’m sure most had us right around 10th tho. 

And right it will be interesting to see who can make some big plays down the stretch.  I think Rob is a guy that has already proven he can and I think Devonta will be another one. I’d love to see Hunter too but who knows if he will ever play. I think at the least both those guys can break the defense down and are good enough passers to make the right play and get someone a good look. 

Also you can dump it to Davis down low. As long as his free throws aren’t an issue. Great passer and feel of what’s going on around him. Can draw the double. 

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Talk of Archie not surviving a 10th place finish this year is silly.  His seat will begin to get warm, but he absolutely will get a 4th year.  Another quick coaching change and IU has officially crossed a line, and is just another program at that point.    

Let's put it this way.  The most direct path to success is to give Archie some time.  I would rather it take Archie 5-6 years to get us there than to start over yet again.

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1 hour ago, 5fouls said:

Talk of Archie not surviving a 10th place finish this year is silly.  His seat will begin to get warm, but he absolutely will get a 4th year.  Another quick coaching change and IU has officially crossed a line, and is just another program at that point.    

Let's put it this way.  The most direct path to success is to give Archie some time.  I would rather it take Archie 5-6 years to get us there than to start over yet again.

I agree but another 10th Place finish and the fan base is going to go from anger to just not caring anymore. Archie will need a loaded up 21 class which I think he's going to do and hope will be restored.  Really need to see this offense taking shape this year and players not going on podcast saying they didn't know what the goal was with our offense.  

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11 hours ago, dbmhoosier said:

He'd get a 4th year IMO simply because of the buyout but he'd probably be wishing he was fired at the point.  Hard to see how Fred would survive that in any scenario though.  He along with Shoulders are the 2 scalps everyone should be calling for.  Archie will get a year 4 barring an implosion this season. 

As well as he should get a 4th year because I think every coach should get at least 4 years to build up his program.  Unless there is something off the court like cheating or player actions any coach needs to get at least 4 years.  To me if you fire him after next year then you will ruin all the end roads that he made with in state recruiting especially with the 2021 class.

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2 hours ago, 5fouls said:

Talk of Archie not surviving a 10th place finish this year is silly.  His seat will begin to get warm, but he absolutely will get a 4th year.  Another quick coaching change and IU has officially crossed a line, and is just another program at that point.    

Let's put it this way.  The most direct path to success is to give Archie some time.  I would rather it take Archie 5-6 years to get us there than to start over yet again.

If he's let go after this year, they better already have his replacement lined up before doing so and make sure it is a home run hire (ie Donovan) or 

Image result for screwed gif

 

 

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6 minutes ago, cybergates said:

If he's let go after this year, they better already have his replacement lined up before doing so and make sure it is a home run hire (ie Donovan) or 

Image result for screwed gif

 

 

Deja vu.  Seems like I have heard this before.   LOL

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16 hours ago, 5fouls said:

Someone clarify this for me.  IU will miss Romeo and Juwan tremendously, but Purdue will not miss Carsen at all (or so the prediction indicates).

 

I did a search to make my memory was not wrong, but neither RL or JM were first or second team B10 selections by the media (Edwards was 1st team).  Romeo was first team by the coaches and JM was only honorable mention.  So, yeah, there does seem to be some "selective reasoning" going on with these predictions.

Still, at the end of the day you have to remember the the old saying about opinions.

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