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Rothstein's Big Ten Forecast


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12 hours ago, 5 championships said:

Archie millers FIRST recruiting class will just be SOPHOMORES this year and we are already this negative my gosh people get a grip!! When they are seniors in 2 years and we don’t make the tourney then heck ya you better believe Miller seat will be hot but until then enjoy the ride. Looks like 2 more  great Indiana boys are close to joining the 2020 class! Isn’t that what everyone wanted? Recruiting the state? That’s all I heard for years about Crean. Miller will get this thing rolling let’s just have ya I’m about to say the word everyone cringes at hearing in today’s world “PATIENCE” 

I think IU fans are running out or have already ran out of patience. Just look at Assembly Hall, there were rarely empty seats even in Creans first years.  I’m not putting all the blame on Archie and I do think he will get his 4th year no matter what.  It’s just going to be a rough 4th year IF that situation plays out. (Let’s hope it doesn’t!). I still think Archie could be the guy but I also think Archie has a lot to learn as well.  Just hope he takes the steps necessary to get where I think he can get. 

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10 hours ago, milehiiu said:

Just asking. So are we giving Archie a shorter rope than we gave Coach Crean ?  And if so. Why ?

The short answer is Yes.  The fans are tired of mediocrity.  They don't want 10 years of building.  They don't want to miss the tourney, they don't want to hear excuse after excuse why we lost 12 of 13, they don't want to hear next year will be better.  They want to win now.  They want to be on the big stage again.  They want to be relevant.  You can say the sins of the past have nothing to do with the coach of today but that doesn't matter.  All coaches since Knight have not lived up to what IU fans think the program should do.  So they see the last 25 years as one long kick in the teeth.  They don't distinguish from coach to coach, they look at the program and think this is IU basketball regardless of who is coaching and we should be winning.

Winning cures all, and frankly we haven't won on a consistent enough basis for the majority of the fan base to be satisfied.

This is how i see it.  I am usually wrong though, so take it for what its worth. 

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20 minutes ago, IUwins0708 said:

I think IU fans are running out or have already ran out of patience. Just look at Assembly Hall, there were rarely empty seats even in Creans first years.  I’m not putting all the blame on Archie and I do think he will get his 4th year no matter what.  It’s just going to be a rough 4th year IF that situation plays out. (Let’s hope it doesn’t!). I still think Archie could be the guy but I also think Archie has a lot to learn as well.  Just hope he takes the steps necessary to get where I think he can get. 

Your 100 percent right. I’m the most diehard of diehard IU fans and even My patience are starting to wear on me and then I just have to take a step back and realize we have to give Arch a fair chance it’s not his fault IU has messed up on the last 3 hires before him. It’s not his fault his entire time was hurt last year. Plus if you don’t give him a fair chance no one else is going to want to come here and coach. 

IU is in great spot with Leal and Galloway and 2021 we are early favorites with Lander and Kauffman. Until the recruiting drys up in state Arch is going to get this thing going his classes he has been able to put together have been to good when they are healthy!! Lol and I really don’t think we will finish 10th if we have a healthy squad. In the end I can see us 5th-8th and getting in the tourney which would create a ton of positive energy again since nobody believes in us. 

Also this new assistant coach hire is really big. 

 

 

 

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16 minutes ago, IowaHoosierFan said:

The short answer is Yes.  The fans are tired of mediocrity.  They don't want 10 years of building.  They don't want to miss the tourney, they don't want to hear excuse after excuse why we lost 12 of 13, they don't want to hear next year will be better.  They want to win now.  They want to be on the big stage again.  They want to be relevant.  You can say the sins of the past have nothing to do with the coach of today but that doesn't matter.  All coaches since Knight have not lived up to what IU fans think the program should do.  So they see the last 25 years as one long kick in the teeth.  They don't distinguish from coach to coach, they look at the program and think this is IU basketball regardless of who is coaching and we should be winning.

Winning cures all, and frankly we haven't won on a consistent enough basis for the majority of the fan base to be satisfied.

This is how i see it.  I am usually wrong though, so take it for what its worth. 

Fans might be tired of it but it still does not make it right to put everything on Archie after just two seasons.

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Also for the people who are ready for a coaching change or thinks there should be one be careful what you wish for.  Everybody was ready for Crean to go and they thought just by changing coaches it would automatically change things and we see that is not the case.  Don't forget that it appears that coaches are not just dropping what they have to go to a pressure cooker like IU because it is not happening.  Look at UCLA the last few hires and they don't overwhelm you and it is because coaches are getting smarter an realize that the grass is not always greener on the other side.  If we do make a change in a year or two you will still be looking at a list of mainly mid major coaches who seem to be an up and coming coach because a well establish coach will not be coming.

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19 minutes ago, IU Scott said:

Also for the people who are ready for a coaching change or thinks there should be one be careful what you wish for.  Everybody was ready for Crean to go and they thought just by changing coaches it would automatically change things and we see that is not the case.  Don't forget that it appears that coaches are not just dropping what they have to go to a pressure cooker like IU because it is not happening.  Look at UCLA the last few hires and they don't overwhelm you and it is because coaches are getting smarter an realize that the grass is not always greener on the other side.  If we do make a change in a year or two you will still be looking at a list of mainly mid major coaches who seem to be an up and coming coach because a well establish coach will not be coming.

I don't want to get into the should there be a change or not. I really like CAM and I think last year should have been a year that erased all doubt about his future. We should have been able to silence the critics but the wheels fell off and allowed more critics to jump aboard. Not saying it is my belief but I feel that if we finish this year in the bottom half of the BIG and we have no recruits locked up for 2021 I think the seat will be very very hot. If we finish in the bottom half and have Lander and Kaufman or any 2 of the in state kids committed the seat will be warm but that is all. 

What will be the nail in the coffin is a disappointing season followed by missing out on all the talent in 21. I don't think that will happen but that scenario might be enough to start looking for the replacement. 

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16 minutes ago, IU Scott said:

Also for the people who are ready for a coaching change or thinks there should be one be careful what you wish for.  Everybody was ready for Crean to go and they thought just by changing coaches it would automatically change things and we see that is not the case.  Don't forget that it appears that coaches are not just dropping what they have to go to a pressure cooker like IU because it is not happening.  Look at UCLA the last few hires and they don't overwhelm you and it is because coaches are getting smarter an realize that the grass is not always greener on the other side.  If we do make a change in a year or two you will still be looking at a list of mainly mid major coaches who seem to be an up and coming coach because a well establish coach will not be coming.

Yep, there's a lot of truth in this.  The conflict I have is that Archie seems like he IS the coach that can get the program where we need it to be, BUT thus far we haven't seen anything that really proves that to be true.  One thing that has run through my mind is this: If the exact same circumstances occurred at a lower profile B10 school (Iowa, Illinois, even PU) how differently would the fans of those schools feel given the same course and results.  My guess is it wouldn't be all sunshine and rainbows.

Regardless of our expectations, I don't see a change happening before he's had a full 4 seasons (and I think that is fair).  One thing I'm confident of is that CAM isn't satisfied or pleased with the results thus far and his expectations are the same as ours.  Last season's injuries were definitely a wrench in the gears, but going forward he/we can't use that excuse unless we see new additional significant injuries (Hunter's condition has been known for the better part of a year, so if he can't go the staff can't be caught unprepared).  Also, last season we suffered from a lack of size up front and shooting - the size issue seems to have been addressed, improvement in shooting will have to come from improvement from returning players.

I think a lot of us are just unsure of what to expect this coming season.  No one is expecting a top-20 team and expects a S16 appearance, but I doubt few will be accepting of another season like the last two.  Going forward I'm neither overly optimistic or pessimistic, which is a place I don't think I've ever been as a fan of this team.

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47 minutes ago, Zuckerkorn said:

Yep, there's a lot of truth in this.  The conflict I have is that Archie seems like he IS the coach that can get the program where we need it to be, BUT thus far we haven't seen anything that really proves that to be true.  One thing that has run through my mind is this: If the exact same circumstances occurred at a lower profile B10 school (Iowa, Illinois, even PU) how differently would the fans of those schools feel given the same course and results.  My guess is it wouldn't be all sunshine and rainbows.

Regardless of our expectations, I don't see a change happening before he's had a full 4 seasons (and I think that is fair).  One thing I'm confident of is that CAM isn't satisfied or pleased with the results thus far and his expectations are the same as ours.  Last season's injuries were definitely a wrench in the gears, but going forward he/we can't use that excuse unless we see new additional significant injuries (Hunter's condition has been known for the better part of a year, so if he can't go the staff can't be caught unprepared).  Also, last season we suffered from a lack of size up front and shooting - the size issue seems to have been addressed, improvement in shooting will have to come from improvement from returning players.

I think a lot of us are just unsure of what to expect this coming season.  No one is expecting a top-20 team and expects a S16 appearance, but I doubt few will be accepting of another season like the last two.  Going forward I'm neither overly optimistic or pessimistic, which is a place I don't think I've ever been as a fan of this team.

Thing is I feel that last year would have been a good year and would have made the tournament if it was not for the injuries.  Also it is hard to tell whether a coach is the right person after just two years.  Do you think that fans at Villanova, UVA and UM thought they really had the right guys after the first two years of their coaches tenure.

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23 minutes ago, IU Scott said:

Thing is I feel that last year would have been a good year and would have made the tournament if it was not for the injuries.  Also it is hard to tell whether a coach is the right person after just two years.  Do you think that fans at Villanova, UVA and UM thought they really had the right guys after the first two years of their coaches tenure.

I have  always proposed on this great forum, we know as Hoosier Sports Nation. That. Any IU coach, short of rule breaking. Should be allowed to a full four year recruiting cycle. Before. Deciding his future at IU.  I was a strong proponent of Coach Crean in his first four years.  But crossed over, as it became obvious that he was not the answer.  Now. The same with Coach Miller. I will be in his corner. At least for his first four years. It's up to him. Ball is in his court. I am hoping he picks up the ball and slam dunks it. For all Hoosier fans to enjoy.

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42 minutes ago, IU Scott said:

Thing is I feel that last year would have been a good year and would have made the tournament if it was not for the injuries.  Also it is hard to tell whether a coach is the right person after just two years.  Do you think that fans at Villanova, UVA and UM thought they really had the right guys after the first two years of their coaches tenure.

This is where I'm at too, currently. I'm chalking last season up to injuries. The bottom line is that our best player had a torn ligament in his shooting hand thumb for over 2/3 of the season, not to mention a really bad back at the end of the season, our starting point guard missed 3 weeks with a concussion and then wasn't the same for another 2 weeks or so making that really 5 weeks, our second best freshmen who was supposed to provide shooting missed the entire season with a freak condition and our center missed several weeks with foot/leg injuries as well. That doesn't even get into McRoberts and Thompson. 

If Hunter is available and Phinisee doesn't get his concussion, just two of the many injuries, there is no doubt that IU makes the tournament. With a tourney appearance all the momentum is there and everybody is still aboard the Archie train. Brooks probably signs, etc. and everyone is happy. 

Unfortunately for IU, Archie and the fans, all those injuries happened and it derailed the season, the season that was supposed to be the big turning point. So the issue is, the momentum was lost, so can Archie get it back? I think he can and I think he deserves the time to do it, especially given that last season was so impacted by things out of his control. But, momentum is a tough thing to have, lose and then regain. It's going to be interesting to see how this plays out and it's a tough job for Archie. Unfortunately, the situation is what it is and it will be very tough for Archie if IU doesn't make the tourney this year.  

I really hope things fall into place this season. I hope Hunter is 100%, Phinisee becomes one of the top 2-3 point guards in the Big Ten, Green and Davis are senior leaders, TJD gives IU a Zeller-lite type impact, Brunk provides the leadership, energy and skilled size IU needs, and the rest of the guys (Durham, Anderson, etc.) make big leaps. If so, then the train is back on the tracks. 

It just stinks that IU had all those injuries. 

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46 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

If IU were to make a coaching change, there is a good chance that Archie would win big and win quickly at his next stop.  If that happens, the IU program has  really big problem.

How could he win quickly without his own players?  That’s expecting too much, or so I’ve read. 

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21 minutes ago, Parakeet Jones said:

How could he win quickly without his own players?  That’s expecting too much, or so I’ve read. 

Archie inherited a dysfunctional roster and last season was derailed by injuries, including one to his star freshman, even though he missed no time in the regular season.  

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3 hours ago, IowaHoosierFan said:

The short answer is Yes.  The fans are tired of mediocrity.  They don't want 10 years of building.  They don't want to miss the tourney, they don't want to hear excuse after excuse why we lost 12 of 13, they don't want to hear next year will be better.  They want to win now.  They want to be on the big stage again.  They want to be relevant.  You can say the sins of the past have nothing to do with the coach of today but that doesn't matter.  All coaches since Knight have not lived up to what IU fans think the program should do.  So they see the last 25 years as one long kick in the teeth.  They don't distinguish from coach to coach, they look at the program and think this is IU basketball regardless of who is coaching and we should be winning.

Winning cures all, and frankly we haven't won on a consistent enough basis for the majority of the fan base to be satisfied.

This is how i see it.  I am usually wrong though, so take it for what its worth. 

I think the issue is that we fired a coach who was actually fairly successful at IU (in retrospect) in the hope that we could hire someone better.  At this point, there hasn’t really been any indication that the floor or ceiling of the program is going to be any higher than it was under Crean.  That’s where a lot of the angst comes from, IMO.

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2 hours ago, Billingsley99 said:

I don't want to get into the should there be a change or not. I really like CAM and I think last year should have been a year that erased all doubt about his future. We should have been able to silence the critics but the wheels fell off and allowed more critics to jump aboard. Not saying it is my belief but I feel that if we finish this year in the bottom half of the BIG and we have no recruits locked up for 2021 I think the seat will be very very hot. If we finish in the bottom half and have Lander and Kaufman or any 2 of the in state kids committed the seat will be warm but that is all. 

What will be the nail in the coffin is a disappointing season followed by missing out on all the talent in 21. I don't think that will happen but that scenario might be enough to start looking for the replacement. 

I agree on the 2021 senario until then I give Archie full support for his vision and I still believe 100 percent he can be the guy! So here is to praying we can stay healthy and give him an honest shot to be the man IU has been longing for. 

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3 minutes ago, 5 championships said:

I agree on the 2021 senario until then I give Archie full support for his vision and I still believe 100 percent he can be the guy! So here is to praying we can stay healthy and give him an honest shot to be the man IU has been longing for. 

I agree. I do think the recruiting wins will keep the seat from getting too hot, but if we stink on and off the court I think all possibilities are withing reason.

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1 minute ago, Billingsley99 said:

I agree. I do think the recruiting wins will keep the seat from getting too hot, but if we stink on and off the court I think all possibilities are withing reason.

Yup IF that’s Big IF we continue to struggle on the court and don’t get Lander or Kaufman I will then say ok we need to start looking elsewhere until then I will look at the big picture and give my support to the players and Archie with full believe this thing can turn out very good for IU. I really believe if we can just stay healthy we will make the tourney and Archie will get us really going. Really hope everyone can see it the same way and that it doesn’t get to negative until then. 

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1 minute ago, 5 championships said:

Yup IF that’s Big IF we continue to struggle on the court and don’t get Lander or Kaufman I will then say ok we need to start looking elsewhere until then I will look at the big picture and give my support to the players and Archie with full believe this thing can turn out very good for IU. I really believe if we can just stay healthy we will make the tourney and Archie will get us really going. Really hope everyone can see it the same way and that it doesn’t get to negative until then. 

We all know that winning cures most ills

 

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1 hour ago, BGleas said:

This is where I'm at too, currently. I'm chalking last season up to injuries. The bottom line is that our best player had a torn ligament in his shooting hand thumb for over 2/3 of the season, not to mention a really bad back at the end of the season, our starting point guard missed 3 weeks with a concussion and then wasn't the same for another 2 weeks or so making that really 5 weeks, our second best freshmen who was supposed to provide shooting missed the entire season with a freak condition and our center missed several weeks with foot/leg injuries as well. That doesn't even get into McRoberts and Thompson. 

If Hunter is available and Phinisee doesn't get his concussion, just two of the many injuries, there is no doubt that IU makes the tournament. With a tourney appearance all the momentum is there and everybody is still aboard the Archie train. Brooks probably signs, etc. and everyone is happy. 

Unfortunately for IU, Archie and the fans, all those injuries happened and it derailed the season, the season that was supposed to be the big turning point. So the issue is, the momentum was lost, so can Archie get it back? I think he can and I think he deserves the time to do it, especially given that last season was so impacted by things out of his control. But, momentum is a tough thing to have, lose and then regain. It's going to be interesting to see how this plays out and it's a tough job for Archie. Unfortunately, the situation is what it is and it will be very tough for Archie if IU doesn't make the tourney this year.  

I really hope things fall into place this season. I hope Hunter is 100%, Phinisee becomes one of the top 2-3 point guards in the Big Ten, Green and Davis are senior leaders, TJD gives IU a Zeller-lite type impact, Brunk provides the leadership, energy and skilled size IU needs, and the rest of the guys (Durham, Anderson, etc.) make big leaps. If so, then the train is back on the tracks. 

It just stinks that IU had all those injuries. 

Not to mention that some of us (me at least) felt that De'Ron needed to take a redshirt season off, after his surgery.  Yet. Came back. Only to re-injure himself again. And then... Coach Miller questioning himself about bringing De'Ron back too soon after his injury during the season.

I agree. Injuries played a major part in IU's season, last time out.  Not unlike how when Crean came in, and had little on the shelf his first season.  But to their credit. Both coaches played on.

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12 minutes ago, milehiiu said:

Not to mention that some of us (me at least) felt that De'Ron needed to take a redshirt season off, after his surgery.  Yet. Came back. Only to re-injure himself again. And then... Coach Miller questioning himself about bringing De'Ron back too soon after his injury during the season.

I agree. Injuries played a major part in IU's season, last time out.  Not unlike how when Crean came in, and had little on the shelf his first season.  But to their credit. Both coaches played on.

De'Ron's injuries were huge. I think there are a few games during 'the streak' that IU wins even if just Phinisee and Davis were healthy. The Maryland game comes to mind where we were up big early and then UMD just wore us down on the inside with Fernando and Smith. Imagine if we had the Davis that played against MSU/Nic Ward in that game? 

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5 hours ago, BGleas said:

This is where I'm at too, currently. I'm chalking last season up to injuries. The bottom line is that our best player had a torn ligament in his shooting hand thumb for over 2/3 of the season, not to mention a really bad back at the end of the season, our starting point guard missed 3 weeks with a concussion and then wasn't the same for another 2 weeks or so making that really 5 weeks, our second best freshmen who was supposed to provide shooting missed the entire season with a freak condition and our center missed several weeks with foot/leg injuries as well. That doesn't even get into McRoberts and Thompson. 

If Hunter is available and Phinisee doesn't get his concussion, just two of the many injuries, there is no doubt that IU makes the tournament. With a tourney appearance all the momentum is there and everybody is still aboard the Archie train. Brooks probably signs, etc. and everyone is happy. 

Unfortunately for IU, Archie and the fans, all those injuries happened and it derailed the season, the season that was supposed to be the big turning point. So the issue is, the momentum was lost, so can Archie get it back? I think he can and I think he deserves the time to do it, especially given that last season was so impacted by things out of his control. But, momentum is a tough thing to have, lose and then regain. It's going to be interesting to see how this plays out and it's a tough job for Archie. Unfortunately, the situation is what it is and it will be very tough for Archie if IU doesn't make the tourney this year.  

I really hope things fall into place this season. I hope Hunter is 100%, Phinisee becomes one of the top 2-3 point guards in the Big Ten, Green and Davis are senior leaders, TJD gives IU a Zeller-lite type impact, Brunk provides the leadership, energy and skilled size IU needs, and the rest of the guys (Durham, Anderson, etc.) make big leaps. If so, then the train is back on the tracks. 

It just stinks that IU had all those injuries. 

I would add that Archie's attempt to quickly repair the serious flaw Crean left behind (3 pt shooting) did not pan out as well. Jerome out the whole season, Damezi being a Freshman and Evan being underwhelming!

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4 hours ago, FW_Hoosier said:

I think the issue is that we fired a coach who was actually fairly successful at IU (in retrospect) in the hope that we could hire someone better.  At this point, there hasn’t really been any indication that the floor or ceiling of the program is going to be any higher than it was under Crean.  That’s where a lot of the angst comes from, IMO.

I think it’s fair to say the way Archie values scholarships and his recruiting is 10 times better than what it was at the end of Crean a tenure. His style of play allows IU to be a lot more consistent to. Your not going to our shoot everyone you face 6 games in a row and win a title. Archie style makes it a lot more realistic for IU to win big 

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