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3-Point Shooting This Year


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OK so this is kind of speculative but that's where I am right now, speculating -- about what might be. 

Hunter remains, in my mind, absolutely key to this season. Still, looking at 3-point shooting,  and considering that we now have a legit front line, we may be better than expected  (emphasis on "may," but still.)

Hunter -- 

From BTpowerhouse (July 2017) - "The first thing that stands out when you watch Hunter is his fluidity on the offensive end and his scoring ability from the perimeter which makes him such a highly-touted prospect." Link with a clip -- https://www.btpowerhouse.com/2017/7/28/16051162/breaking-down-indiana-hoosiers-basketball-2017-commit-jerome-hunter-recruiting

One of CAM's comments following his commitment: “He is an extremely versatile wing who has great size for his position,” Miller said after Hunter signed. “Jerome's ability to play both on the perimeter and inside will make him a great addition to our team." https://www.indystar.com/story/sports/college/indiana/2018/02/06/highest-ranked-ius-current-2018-class-jerome-hunter-could-also-most-intriguing/306783002/

His versatility is huge. This is a 20 and 10 player coming into IU, who shoots at an elite level. kid at one point played center and PF/stretch 4, and even some point. Really think that he will be a difference maker, assuming (and big time hoping for) health.

Green --

He ended up 41% from the arc on the season. He will have more space to work with, with a healthy Davis, Brunk, TJD, not to mention Smith and Race.

Al --

Ended up 35% from the perimeter. Has improved each year, now he's a veteran junior. Kid will be solid.

Demezi 

Maybe a "dark horse" of sorts in that he was figuring things out, especially the defensive end and speed of the game, as a frosh. But the kid can shoot it from deep and again he'll have space to go with expected frosh to soph development. Can say he shot 23% as a frosh, but that's not reflective, at all, of his shooting. Would expect to see him get acclimated to the speed of the game, and especially with expected extra space to work with, would bet on a jump from him.

Rob

Shot 31% from the arc for the season, would also bank on improvement. We know he can hit the big shot at the end, and again, spacing....

 

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I like you enthusiasm.  The fact that we are putting all out eggs on Hunter being the X factor 20/10 kind of guy and hope that we get good Green for year instead of what we have had for 3 years and hope that Demizi figures it out (he should) and make a big jump has me worried.

Its possible we all of sudden have great shooting on the floor and the inside out game opens up and with our defense become an offensive threat.  Unfortunately i just don't see how the 3 man weave stand around offense we have ran the last 2 years is going to produce any more offense even if guys can shoot better.  Its not hard to defense the offensive scheme we have put into play recently.  Maybe all that will change this year, guys make the jump we expect and we're alot better than expected.

I could be and I am usually wrong so take what i say with a grain of salt and don't go to hard on me

Jason

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1 hour ago, IowaHoosierFan said:

I like you enthusiasm.  The fact that we are putting all out eggs on Hunter being the X factor 20/10 kind of guy and hope that we get good Green for year instead of what we have had for 3 years and hope that Demizi figures it out (he should) and make a big jump has me worried.

Its possible we all of sudden have great shooting on the floor and the inside out game opens up and with our defense become an offensive threat.  Unfortunately i just don't see how the 3 man weave stand around offense we have ran the last 2 years is going to produce any more offense even if guys can shoot better.  Its not hard to defense the offensive scheme we have put into play recently.  Maybe all that will change this year, guys make the jump we expect and we're alot better than expected.

I could be and I am usually wrong so take what i say with a grain of salt and don't go to hard on me

Jason

You summed up some of my concerns.....The “stand around/weave” offense is worrisome as is not knowing what we will get from the If/if/If players (Hunter, Green and Damezi).

On the other hand let’s not forget that Al and Rob both showed signs of being outside threats. I find this be be a very difficult team to predict. 

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I would go as far as to say, assuming our top 4 perimeter players are all healthy, I actually feel really good about their shooting ability. Rob was shooting 45% from deep before his concussion; the kid can shoot he just never got back in a rhythm after the injury. My concern about our perimeter game is that I think we need a fifth guy to step up, and I'm not sure how much we can reasonably expect from Anderson or Franklin. Hopefully we can get 5-10 good minutes from one of them every night.

As far as shooting goes, I'd like to see at least one of our bigs prove they can knock down jump shots. Race seems like the best bet there, but none of them really have much pedigree as shooters. In modern basketball, if you don't have any bigs that can stretch the defense it can be problematic on offense. 

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2 hours ago, Hoosierhoopster said:

Yeah, we don’t have a Morgan on this squad, but I think we can have a big jump from the wing with Hunter’s expected return, and he really is versatile, though that word gets thrown around a lot. I think we have the chance to be a good inside-out team 

In terms of 3pt shooting that’s a good thing. Morgan was a high volume, relative to his position, low percentage 3pt shooter. His 3pt shooting, along with Langford’s struggles and volume are really what dragged the team’s overall percentages down. 

I don’t think IU will shoot the 3 like Crean’s teams did by any means, but I do expect the number to be much more respectable. 

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For the most part our issue last year is the wrong people were taking the 3 pointers. 

Our two most accurate shooters were 4th and 6th on the attempts chart iirc. 

We need Rob to improve a bit on his non concussed numbers. And then him and Devonte to shoot well over half the 3s. With our next best shooters probably Al and Hunter to shoot about 30% of our 3s. 

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11 hours ago, Brass Cannon said:

For the most part our issue last year is the wrong people were taking the 3 pointers. 

Our two most accurate shooters were 4th and 6th on the attempts chart iirc. 

We need Rob to improve a bit on his non concussed numbers. And then him and Devonte to shoot well over half the 3s. With our next best shooters probably Al and Hunter to shoot about 30% of our 3s. 

Some of that is a function of time on the court. Measured per minute instead of by total number, Devonte was easily our most frequent shooter from three, followed by Damezi and Evan Fitzner. Al and Romeo shot the same amount, Rob only a little less, but more than Juwan. That distribution makes a lot more sense, especially if Evan had been able to maintain his career hit rate.

My concern is as much about volume as it is about percentages. Regardless of who was on the court, we didn't use the three as a weapon last season. We ranked 292nd in attempts per game last season, 300th in the percentage of our field goal attempts that came from distance. If someone has a great way to quickly check, please share it, but the last time I looked it up I think even Romeo - who led the team in minutes and attempts - ranked only in the 30s among Big Ten players in total attempts from three.

I expect our percentages to be better. For one, it's hard to get worse as a team than 31.2% and 317th in the nation, 27.5% and dead last in the Big Ten. And I agree that with Rome and Juwan gone, we have more capable shooters taking more of the available minutes and usage on offense. If Rob can improve on his post-concussion number, if Damezi can acclimate to the college game, and if Jerome proves healthy and competent from deep, those are all valid reasons to believe as well.

But what I also saw last season was an offense that too often relied on getting the ball to Romeo or Juwan, and hoping they would be able to make something happen. We didn't put in the work to get shots for the shooters we had on the roster, several of whom we'll be relying upon again for this coming season. Too often the three was taken as a last resort, after our two stars or the weave at the top of the key had failed to produce any better options. Small wonder that these unplanned and desperate shots so often failed to go in. 

More than just the change in personnel or development from our freshman, I'm really wanting to see an offense that gets the ball to our shooters in rhythm, that runs action off the ball to get them open. It was there in small doses last season, just not nearly enough. My hope is that after two years of prioritizing defense, maybe this season Archie feels comfortable shifting to plays on the other side of the ball.

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12 hours ago, BGleas said:

In terms of 3pt shooting that’s a good thing. Morgan was a high volume, relative to his position, low percentage 3pt shooter. His 3pt shooting, along with Langford’s struggles and volume are really what dragged the team’s overall percentages down. 

I don’t think IU will shoot the 3 like Crean’s teams did by any means, but I do expect the number to be much more respectable. 

I see things along the same lines, banking on Hunter’s health. Dude is smooth. 

Also intersted to see if Rob is a better outside shooter than his end of season percentages reflect - I think he is, took him a while to get back to form following his extended missed playing time.

This season’s team enters with a lot of question marks, but also a fair amount of reasonable optimism, imo. I expect a tougher team, a more balanced team, and end of the day a better shooting team.

 

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While I think improved 3 point shooting could make us a really good team, I think improved 2 point shooting, particularly by guards, (and even more particularly Phinisee, Green, and Durham) driving to the basket  needs to improve as well.

Looking over stats from last year, something that stood out to me was the 2pt fg percentage of those 3.

Phinisee 40%

Durham 45%

Green 39%

I don't remember any of the 3 doing much mid-range shooting.

Looking at the 2pt fg percentage for guards on better B10 teams...

MSU

Winston 50%

McQuaid 45%

Langford 48%

Purdue

Edwards 44%

Eastern 50%

Cline 44%

Michigan

Matthews 48%

Poole 51%

Simpson 50%

Durham was ok, but too many times last year, those 3 would go to the rim and either get it stolen/blocked, or would throw up a prayer. I can count the times on 1 hand that I saw any of those 3 drive and kick out to an open shooter. 

Just one casual fans observation.

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1 hour ago, Maedhros said:

Some of that is a function of time on the court. Measured per minute instead of by total number, Devonte was easily our most frequent shooter from three, followed by Damezi and Evan Fitzner. Al and Romeo shot the same amount, Rob only a little less, but more than Juwan. That distribution makes a lot more sense, especially if Evan had been able to maintain his career hit rate.

My concern is as much about volume as it is about percentages. Regardless of who was on the court, we didn't use the three as a weapon last season. We ranked 292nd in attempts per game last season, 300th in the percentage of our field goal attempts that came from distance. If someone has a great way to quickly check, please share it, but the last time I looked it up I think even Romeo - who led the team in minutes and attempts - ranked only in the 30s among Big Ten players in total attempts from three.

I expect our percentages to be better. For one, it's hard to get worse as a team than 31.2% and 317th in the nation, 27.5% and dead last in the Big Ten. And I agree that with Rome and Juwan gone, we have more capable shooters taking more of the available minutes and usage on offense. If Rob can improve on his post-concussion number, if Damezi can acclimate to the college game, and if Jerome proves healthy and competent from deep, those are all valid reasons to believe as well.

But what I also saw last season was an offense that too often relied on getting the ball to Romeo or Juwan, and hoping they would be able to make something happen. We didn't put in the work to get shots for the shooters we had on the roster, several of whom we'll be relying upon again for this coming season. Too often the three was taken as a last resort, after our two stars or the weave at the top of the key had failed to produce any better options. Small wonder that these unplanned and desperate shots so often failed to go in. 

More than just the change in personnel or development from our freshman, I'm really wanting to see an offense that gets the ball to our shooters in rhythm, that runs action off the ball to get them open. It was there in small doses last season, just not nearly enough. My hope is that after two years of prioritizing defense, maybe this season Archie feels comfortable shifting to plays on the other side of the ball.

We didn’t use the 3 as a weapon because we couldn’t hit them. They were essentially turnovers sine games. And that was partly because the correct guys weren’t shooting them. Romeo was second in attempts( I believe led until he sat out at the end of the year) but 6th in percentage. 

 

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One of the things i saw last year concerning our offense which in turn affects getting open 3s is that our perimeter guys don't work to get open.  They don't run of screens or baseline or across the floor looking for picks and rubs to get that catch and shoot open 3.  Our offense mindset looks lazy to me.  Everyone is waiting around looking for the ball to come to them and never trying to make it so they are open to get the ball.  Whether this is a consequence of our offensive mindset or player tendencies, we will need to adjust our offense if we plan to shoot over 40% as  team from 3.  But i will admit that having DD, TDJ, and even Brunk(unknown like Fitz) on the inside, this could very well open out perimeter up for more open shots.  But we will need to run something other than the 3 man weave.

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On 7/29/2019 at 1:46 PM, IowaHoosierFan said:

I like you enthusiasm.  The fact that we are putting all out eggs on Hunter being the X factor 20/10 kind of guy and hope that we get good Green for year instead of what we have had for 3 years and hope that Demizi figures it out (he should) and make a big jump has me worried.

Its possible we all of sudden have great shooting on the floor and the inside out game opens up and with our defense become an offensive threat.  Unfortunately i just don't see how the 3 man weave stand around offense we have ran the last 2 years is going to produce any more offense even if guys can shoot better.  Its not hard to defense the offensive scheme we have put into play recently.  Maybe all that will change this year, guys make the jump we expect and we're alot better than expected.

I could be and I am usually wrong so take what i say with a grain of salt and don't go to hard on me

Jason

We missed a TON of bunnies last season and most of our looks from 3 were open shots. That keep scoring down and make it look like there was no offense. Yeah at times I wondered what we were doing but we were trying to play thru Morgan 75% of the time. We make more open looks last season, the offense doesn't look as bad and we win a few more games. Bad shooting more than bad offense.

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10 hours ago, Moyeneeded said:

We missed a TON of bunnies last season and most of our looks from 3 were open shots. That keep scoring down and make it look like there was no offense. Yeah at times I wondered what we were doing but we were trying to play thru Morgan 75% of the time. We make more open looks last season, the offense doesn't look as bad and we win a few more games. Bad shooting more than bad offense.

Meh, more excuses.  I am over it.  If we can't hit bunnies and open 3's how are we going to win games.  But i stand by the fact that we run a simple bad offense that isn't hard to defend.  Each to their own.  I am over the last two years.  I want to see changes this year.  I want to see guys runs run off screen and constantly move through the offense looking to get open.  Playing great defense is all good but doesn't amount to much if you can't score more than 50 points.  It just won't work out in our favor.

But you are entitled to you opinion much like i am.  Feel free to tell me i am wrong, i usually am.

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8 minutes ago, IowaHoosierFan said:

Meh, more excuses.  I am over it.  If we can't hit bunnies and open 3's how are we going to win games.  But i stand by the fact that we run a simple bad offense that isn't hard to defend.  Each to their own.  I am over the last two years.  I want to see changes this year.  I want to see guys runs run off screen and constantly move through the offense looking to get open.  Playing great defense is all good but doesn't amount to much if you can't score more than 50 points.  It just won't work out in our favor.

But you are entitled to you opinion much like i am.  Feel free to tell me i am wrong, i usually am.

I don't know. UVA was 210th out of 353 in points scored last year, but 1st in least points allowed. Couple that with being 4th in offensive rebounds and 6th in overall rebounds and you can win a National Championship that way.

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31 minutes ago, IUFLA said:

I don't know. UVA was 210th out of 353 in points scored last year, but 1st in least points allowed. Couple that with being 4th in offensive rebounds and 6th in overall rebounds and you can win a National Championship that way.

Those ranks, in total points both scored and allowed, are partly explained by tempo. Virginia ranked as the second most efficient offense in college basketball, better than they ranked on defense, but Virginia was also literally the slowest team in all Division I last season. The only reason they didn't score many points is because they had fewer possessions than anyone else.

If we're following Virginia's path to a national championship, I sure wouldn't mind seeing us hit threes at nearly a 40% rate as a team on the season, be over 43% in conference play, and take 40% of our field goal attempts from three. 

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15 minutes ago, Maedhros said:

Those ranks, in total points both scored and allowed, are partly explained by tempo. Virginia ranked as the second most efficient offense in college basketball, better than they ranked on defense, but Virginia was also literally the slowest team in all Division I last season. The only reason they didn't score many points is because they had fewer possessions than anyone else.

If we're following Virginia's path to a national championship, I sure wouldn't mind seeing us hit threes at nearly a 40% rate as a team on the season, be over 43% in conference play, and take 40% of our field goal attempts from three. 

Understand and agree, but my main focus was on the defensive stats. Great defense can gloss over mediocre offense and win you a lot of games. 

Offensive improvements will help, but I'd really like to see the defense improve as much as it did from Archie's first year to his second.

 

 

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11 minutes ago, IUFLA said:

Understand and agree, but my main focus was on the defensive stats. Great defense can gloss over mediocre offense and win you a lot of games. 

Offensive improvements will help, but I'd really like to see the defense improve as much as it did from Archie's first year to his second.

 

 

Great defense with mediocre offense can also get you beat by a 16 seed.  If the offense doesn’t take a huge step up, IU is never going to be as good as we want them to be.

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1 hour ago, IowaHoosierFan said:

Meh, more excuses.  I am over it.  If we can't hit bunnies and open 3's how are we going to win games.  But i stand by the fact that we run a simple bad offense that isn't hard to defend.  Each to their own.  I am over the last two years.  I want to see changes this year.  I want to see guys runs run off screen and constantly move through the offense looking to get open.  Playing great defense is all good but doesn't amount to much if you can't score more than 50 points.  It just won't work out in our favor.

But you are entitled to you opinion much like i am.  Feel free to tell me i am wrong, i usually am.

If you watch very much college basketball you will see very few teams actually run a motion offense where guys are coming off screens

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2 hours ago, IUFLA said:

I don't know. UVA was 210th out of 353 in points scored last year, but 1st in least points allowed. Couple that with being 4th in offensive rebounds and 6th in overall rebounds and you can win a National Championship that way.

It worked 1 year.  If it continues to work year after year for teams like this who end up in the final 4 then you might be on to something.  But overall you need a decent to above average offense with an average defense.  Usually its high octane offenses with ok defenses that win it all

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2 hours ago, IUFLA said:

Understand and agree, but my main focus was on the defensive stats. Great defense can gloss over mediocre offense and win you a lot of games. 

Offensive improvements will help, but I'd really like to see the defense improve as much as it did from Archie's first year to his second.

 

 

I think the point though is that Virginia's offense was very far from mediocre, it was one of the best in the country evidenced by their #2 ranking in efficiency. They just played a really slow tempo which brings them down in terms of 'total rankings'. 

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