Fantasy Football 2019 - shared tips?

[Seeking6]

10 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

To clarify, Taylor is already on the team as are Ingram and Howard.  Not dropping Fournette just yet until I see where he lands.  I just need to start someone in his place Week 1.  Leaning towards Ingram, but afraid I might miss out on a big debut for Taylor and worried about Dobbins taking touches from Ingram.  The Colts have a great OL.  

Yep. There are similar. I would expect 8-12 touches for Taylor each game for first month. Dobbins is an interesting one too. First game vs Cleveland I expect to see plenty of yards and maybe points. I heard a rumor today about Fournette landing in KC so he can pair up with CEH.

Howard is first team guy but week 1 at Patriots isn't a great matchup. Good luck!

[tdhoosier]

35 minutes ago, Seeking6 said:

Overall though I draft a little different. I load up on WR's and TE early....QB and best available RB around 4th and 5th rounds....and I start loading up on handcuffs in round 6-10. Taylor isn't someone I would target before round 9 or 10. Especially with news today about Kamara and his contract if you haven't drafted already. Move Latavius Murray up your board a little.

Me personally....I've gotten burned too many times by not having enough RB depth. I feel like I can always get better WR value in the mid rounds than RB value. I grab the RB's when they are available unless a WR falls to me. 

on another note. We started to do keepers in one of my leagues last year. There's a 2 round jump on keeper's though. I have 2 options: 

I can reserve Godwin in the 3rd OR Prescott in the 8th. Not significant value saves, but I have one to use. Thoughts? Prescott seems to be the better value but I have a hard time passing on Godwin's upside with Brady now in TB (even if I draft early in the 3rd round). 

[Seeking6]

1 minute ago, tdhoosier said:

Me personally....I've gotten burned too many times by not having enough RB depth. I feel like I can always get better WR value in the mid rounds than RB value. I grab the RB's when they are available unless a WR falls to me. 

on another note. We started to do keepers in one of my leagues last year. There's a 2 round jump on keeper's though. I have 2 options: 

I can reserve Godwin in the 3rd OR Prescott in the 8th. Not significant value saves, but I have one to use. Thoughts? Prescott seems to be the better value but I have a hard time passing on Godwin's upside with Brady now in TB (even if I draft early in the 3rd round). 

I'm a Godwin fan/guy. Had him last year in all leagues. I'd do anything to keep him. I'm still trying to find my 4th round surprise this year. Godwin last year, Arian Foster way back and a few others. I usually find a guy most aren't talking about who are ready to explode. Nothing jumping out at me so far.

[tdhoosier]

1 hour ago, Seeking6 said:

I'm a Godwin fan/guy. Had him last year in all leagues. I'd do anything to keep him. I'm still trying to find my 4th round surprise this year. Godwin last year, Arian Foster way back and a few others. I usually find a guy most aren't talking about who are ready to explode. Nothing jumping out at me so far.

How about Ronald Jones? That offense will be on the field a lot. 

[Seeking6]

18 minutes ago, tdhoosier said:

How about Ronald Jones? That offense will be on the field a lot. 

I'm still trying to think this one out. If he's there in the 4th and I don't have an RB yet I would look at him. I'm warming up to the guys like Devante Parker, Preston Williams, Jamison Crowder,etc....guys that will have to be throwing all day everyday in 2nd half but I haven't looked at where guys are being slotted yet. 

[tdhoosier]

15 hours ago, Seeking6 said:

I'm still trying to think this one out. If he's there in the 4th and I don't have an RB yet I would look at him. I'm warming up to the guys like Devante Parker, Preston Williams, Jamison Crowder,etc....guys that will have to be throwing all day everyday in 2nd half but I haven't looked at where guys are being slotted yet. 

I have your 4th round guy (if people use yahoo and ESPN rankings in your league). Look into DJ Chark. His ADP is all over the place. ESPN has him at 55. Some of the smaller and more accurate services I follow like Fantasy Footballers has the so-called experts taking him in the 3rd round. 

[Seeking6]

5 hours ago, tdhoosier said:

I have your 4th round guy (if people use yahoo and ESPN rankings in your league). Look into DJ Chark. His ADP is all over the place. ESPN has him at 55. Some of the smaller and more accurate services I follow like Fantasy Footballers has the so-called experts taking him in the 3rd round. 

Thanks. Always forget about him and Jacksonville for all things fantasy but with their team they probably will have to toss it around 50x per game.

[Seeking6]

6 hours ago, tdhoosier said:

I have your 4th round guy (if people use yahoo and ESPN rankings in your league). Look into DJ Chark. His ADP is all over the place. ESPN has him at 55. Some of the smaller and more accurate services I follow like Fantasy Footballers has the so-called experts taking him in the 3rd round. 

I'm warming up to Chark but my biggest concern is playoff opponents. Titans, Ravens, Bears defenses....guess we can worry about that later but the more homework I'm doing on him the more l like. ADP says 5th round but maybe he could be the late 4th round guy this year. Thanks again! Will let you know if I can get him next week.

[Seeking6]

Just found I draft 3rd in a full point PPR league. Disclaimer....I'm not a RB guy. CMC, Barkley will go first. Conventional wisdom says Zeke next but I don't trust him. Kamara after that but now contract situation....and all of a sudden Michael Thomas who I love is entering the conversation. In a perfect world I go Thomas, Kelce/Kittle, and Thielen with my first 3 and take one of forgotten RB's (Gurley, Gordon, Bell,etc...) in round 4. Follow that with another WR I like (Parker, Williams, Crowder and now Chark) in 5th, grab my qb in 6th and start loading up on handcuffs every round after that waiting for the inevitable injury. We'll see what the next week of research brings.

[Seeking6]

On 8/31/2020 at 3:58 PM, 5fouls said:

To clarify, Taylor is already on the team as are Ingram and Howard.  Not dropping Fournette just yet until I see where he lands.  I just need to start someone in his place Week 1.  Leaning towards Ingram, but afraid I might miss out on a big debut for Taylor and worried about Dobbins taking touches from Ingram.  The Colts have a great OL.  

I wanted to circle back around on what I said yesterday. Reich is saying Mack is the guy but every single draft I'm seeing is saying Mack much later than Taylor. I'm assuming the national guys are protecting the inevitable move for Taylor to be lead guy. Anyway....I just one guy say Taylor at 60th and Mack at 84th. Confusing for sure.

[Steubenhoosier]

25 minutes ago, Seeking6 said:

I wanted to circle back around on what I said yesterday. Reich is saying Mack is the guy but every single draft I'm seeing is saying Mack much later than Taylor. I'm assuming the national guys are protecting the inevitable move for Taylor to be lead guy. Anyway....I just one guy say Taylor at 60th and Mack at 84th. Confusing for sure.

Under normal circumstances I would agree that Taylor was the better option— younger and fresher legs. However, the way Wisconsin used him, I am concerned that there just isn’t as much left in the tank. 

Hope I am wrong, and will be pleasantly happy if I am mistaken 

[5fouls]

1 hour ago, Seeking6 said:

I wanted to circle back around on what I said yesterday. Reich is saying Mack is the guy but every single draft I'm seeing is saying Mack much later than Taylor. I'm assuming the national guys are protecting the inevitable move for Taylor to be lead guy. Anyway....I just one guy say Taylor at 60th and Mack at 84th. Confusing for sure.

Yeah.  Going to give it some time and see what happens.  I think it may only take an opportunity like Mack getting dinged up or Taylor breaking a long one when Mack is taking a drive off to shift the depth chart around though.

Looking like probably needing to go with Ingram Week 1.  Between Ingram, Howard, and Taylor, I need one of them to step up until Fournette finds a home.  I'm hoping Fournette lands in Tampa or New England.   I got burned with a Chicago back last year (Montgomery), so I hope Fournette does not go to the Bears. 

 

 

[Seeking6]

11 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

Yeah.  Going to give it some time and see what happens.  I think it may only take an opportunity like Mack getting dinged up or Taylor breaking a long one when Mack is taking a drive off to shift the depth chart around though.

Looking like probably needing to go with Ingram Week 1.  Between Ingram, Howard, and Taylor, I need one of them to step up until Fournette finds a home.  I'm hoping Fournette lands in Tampa or New England.   I got burned with a Chicago back last year (Montgomery), so I hope Fournette does not go to the Bears. 

 

 

I'm a Bears fan. We could trade for Kamara and I wouldn't trust the Bears backfield. Avoid at all costs! Haha

[tdhoosier]

15 hours ago, Seeking6 said:

Just found I draft 3rd in a full point PPR league. Disclaimer....I'm not a RB guy. CMC, Barkley will go first. Conventional wisdom says Zeke next but I don't trust him. Kamara after that but now contract situation....and all of a sudden Michael Thomas who I love is entering the conversation. In a perfect world I go Thomas, Kelce/Kittle, and Thielen with my first 3 and take one of forgotten RB's (Gurley, Gordon, Bell,etc...) in round 4. Follow that with another WR I like (Parker, Williams, Crowder and now Chark) in 5th, grab my qb in 6th and start loading up on handcuffs every round after that waiting for the inevitable injury. We'll see what the next week of research brings.

I say this with all due respect but YOU CRAZY if you draft Thomas third! haha.

It's funny because we have such different philosophies.

My hard rules for drafting:
1. always draft value....get the guys who fall
2. load up on RB's first....unless (see rule 1)
3. Be one of the last to draft a QB....unless (see rule 1) aka, sweep up all that good mid round WR value while everybody is drafting QB's and Defenses. 
4. Draft kickers and defenses in the last 2 rounds (play the waiver wire)

You can get a good 10 point per game in a full point PPR league from WR's well into the 12th round. That type of production from RB's will stop in the 7th. Whether it is from Zeke or somebody else grab that guaranteed 17-20 ppg from a RB and make it up in the later rounds with receivers. If one of your top 2 RB's gets injured, it will be hard to get decent production at your RB2 because a) there are slim pickings at RB in FA and b) good RB trades are hard to come by because most of the time nobody has depth at RB.....especially in 12 person leagues. 

If I get 3 good RB's early, not only do I have a great flex option; I have insurance incase one of my RB's goes down and/or I have good trade bait for all the guys that take WR's and QB's in the first 3 rounds and desperately need a RB that has consistent production.

...at least that's how i view it. 

 

 

 

 

[5fouls]

8 minutes ago, tdhoosier said:

I say this with all due respect but YOU CRAZY if you draft Thomas third! haha.

It's funny because we have such different philosophies.

My hard rules for drafting:
1. always draft value....get the guys who fall
2. load up on RB's first....unless (see rule 1)
3. Be one of the last to draft a QB....unless (see rule 1) aka, sweep up all that good mid round WR value while everybody is drafting QB's and Defenses. 
4. Draft kickers and defenses in the last 2 rounds (play the waiver wire)

You can get a good 10 point per game in a full point PPR league from WR's well into the 12th round. That type of production from RB's will stop in the 7th. Whether it is from Zeke or somebody else grab that guaranteed 17-20 ppg from a RB and make it up in the later rounds with receivers. If one of your top 2 RB's gets injured, it will be hard to get decent production at your RB2 because a) there are slim pickings at RB in FA and b) good RB trades are hard to come by because most of the time nobody has depth at RB.....especially in 12 person leagues. 

If I get 3 good RB's early, not only do I have a great flex option; I have insurance incase one of my RB's goes down and/or I have good trade bait for all the guys that take WR's and QB's in the first 3 rounds and desperately need a RB that has consistent production.

...at least that's how i view it. 

 

 

 

 

Doesn't it really depend on the structure of your league?  The league I'm in is a full PPR and also has some things that are favorable to QBs.  Lamar Jackson ended up being the top point producer last year.

I won the regular season going away and drafted the first QB, TE, Defense, and Kicker.  

This year, had the second pick.  Took Michael Thomas.  Obviously would have taken McCaffery with the first pick, but Thomas is an equal point producer and lower risk than any of the RBs outside of McCaffery,

And, I'm absolutely loaded at receiver with Thomas, Thielen, and Galladay, with Russel Wilson at QB.

[tdhoosier]

2 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

Doesn't it really depend on the structure of your league?  The league I'm in is a full PPR and also has some things that are favorable to QBs.  Lamar Jackson ended up being the top point producer last year.

I won the regular season going away and drafted the first QB, TE, Defense, and Kicker.  

This year, had the second pick.  Took Michael Thomas.  Obviously would have taken McCaffery with the first pick, but Thomas is an equal point producer and lower risk than any of the RBs outside of McCaffery,

And, I'm absolutely loaded at receiver with Thomas, Thielen, and Galladay, with Russel Wilson at QB.

Definitely not claiming to have all (or any) answers and am by no means an expert. Just sharing the philosophy that I've fallen into after playing all these years. 

I have good years and I have bad years just like everybody else. FF football revolves around luck: avoiding highly drafted busts and injuries. For that reason, I'm conservative with how I draft; it's why I don't reach for TE's, WRs and QBs in the early rounds....I'll take them if they fall to me though. And I'm definitely not saying that's bad strategy if that's how you draft, but the experience of getting burned in these situations has jaded me.

[dwtaylor1055]

My strategy for one league is as follows(picking 7th out of 12 in a 1/2 ppr league):  Load up on top WRs.  I want two top 5 pass catchers that'll get close to 100 catches, 1500 yards and 8 to 10 tds.  Here is ideally what I would love

1.) M. Thomas 2.) D. Hopkins 3.) Gurley(he'll get 15 touches at a min in what could be a high scoring offense and no backup to steal TDs or many catches) 4.) Bell(Yes he's projected to split 60/40 carries with Gore, however, he'll produce RB2 numbers and catch some balls) 5.) R. Woods(WR2 is his floor) 6.) TY Hilton(He should return to more consistent WR2 numbers more than WR3 numbers with Rivers) 7.) Singletary(solid bye RB fill in, safe to get 15 touches each game) 8.) Stafford(was top 6 QB though 8 weeks last year prior to getting injured) 9.) D. Johnson WR 10) B. Jarwin TE(Lots of buzz plus Witten is gone from Dallas so that frees up about 85 targets to tight ends from last year on top of his 30 catches last year) 11.) A. Hooper TE 12.) M. Mack(This guy may lose his starting job, however, if that happens he'll still get 10 to 12 touches a game, Mack is good)

[Seeking6]

6 hours ago, 5fouls said:

Doesn't it really depend on the structure of your league?  The league I'm in is a full PPR and also has some things that are favorable to QBs.  Lamar Jackson ended up being the top point producer last year.

I won the regular season going away and drafted the first QB, TE, Defense, and Kicker.  

This year, had the second pick.  Took Michael Thomas.  Obviously would have taken McCaffery with the first pick, but Thomas is an equal point producer and lower risk than any of the RBs outside of McCaffery,

And, I'm absolutely loaded at receiver with Thomas, Thielen, and Galladay, with Russel Wilson at QB.

This is exactly how I see it and the numbers in our league at least justify it. Thomas in a full point PPR league is almost dead lock for 20-24 points each week just based on 10 receptions and 100 yards....not to mention if he gets a TD. My second choice would be Kelce or Kittle....again almost locks for 20 points each week.....Galladay I like and Russell and Deshaun have been my 4th or 5th rounds guys in multiple leagues for years. 

Just seems to me that top 5-6 RB's always get injured. I'd rather play the wire and fill those holes week to week if need be. Last year Mostert won me my league. 

[Seeking6]

5 hours ago, dwtaylor1055 said:

My strategy for one league is as follows(picking 7th out of 12 in a 1/2 ppr league):  Load up on top WRs.  I want two top 5 pass catchers that'll get close to 100 catches, 1500 yards and 8 to 10 tds.  Here is ideally what I would love

1.) M. Thomas 2.) D. Hopkins 3.) Gurley(he'll get 15 touches at a min in what could be a high scoring offense and no backup to steal TDs or many catches) 4.) Bell(Yes he's projected to split 60/40 carries with Gore, however, he'll produce RB2 numbers and catch some balls) 5.) R. Woods(WR2 is his floor) 6.) TY Hilton(He should return to more consistent WR2 numbers more than WR3 numbers with Rivers) 7.) Singletary(solid bye RB fill in, safe to get 15 touches each game) 8.) Stafford(was top 6 QB though 8 weeks last year prior to getting injured) 9.) D. Johnson WR 10) B. Jarwin TE(Lots of buzz plus Witten is gone from Dallas so that frees up about 85 targets to tight ends from last year on top of his 30 catches last year) 11.) A. Hooper TE 12.) M. Mack(This guy may lose his starting job, however, if that happens he'll still get 10 to 12 touches a game, Mack is good)

See at 7th is almost perfect spot to draft what I want to do in Full Point PPR. If your league is RB loaded early you'll have CMC, Barkely, Zeke, Kamara, Cook taken with first 5. At 7 you get Thomas or more than likely Adams. But when it snakes back around your in a perfect spot to get Kelce and when it snakes back around Thielen. You have 3 100+ reception guys right out of the gates. Take an elite QB in 4th or if you want to go RB you can go Ronald Jones or Gordon. And in the 5th you still have guys like TY or Chark or Diggs or Parker......at that point you would have elite at WR, TE, WR, QB, and Flex.....now the downside to my strategy is scrambling a bit. Have to start taking handcuffs a tad early in rounds 6-9 until the rest of the league gets wise.

Fun to talk strategies. My brother in law is dead set on tdhoosier's way and I'm set on mine and we've both have had multiple titles in recent years. All fun to discuss!

[Seeking6]

6 hours ago, tdhoosier said:

Definitely not claiming to have all (or any) answers and am by no means an expert. Just sharing the philosophy that I've fallen into after playing all these years. 

I have good years and I have bad years just like everybody else. FF football revolves around luck: avoiding highly drafted busts and injuries. For that reason, I'm conservative with how I draft; it's why I don't reach for TE's, WRs and QBs in the early rounds....I'll take them if they fall to me though. And I'm definitely not saying that's bad strategy if that's how you draft, but the experience of getting burned in these situations has jaded me.

My brother in law is more your strategy. In a passing league I try to load up on as many elite receiving options as possible. Downside is we have to scramble for RB's but that kind of makes it fun too! All fun to discuss different strategies!

[5fouls]

5 minutes ago, Seeking6 said:

This is exactly how I see it and the numbers in our league at least justify it. Thomas in a full point PPR league is almost dead lock for 20-24 points each week just based on 10 receptions and 100 yards....not to mention if he gets a TD. My second choice would be Kelce or Kittle....again almost locks for 20 points each week.....Galladay I like and Russell and Deshaun have been my 4th or 5th rounds guys in multiple leagues for years. 

Just seems to me that top 5-6 RB's always get injured. I'd rather play the wire and fill those holes week to week if need be. Last year Mostert won me my league. 

Last year, Chubb and Fournette did just fine for me at RB.  Both were steady and, most importantly, reliable.  Kelce was my tight end.  Underachieved at WR with Hopkins, who had down year, A. Cooper, who had some injury issues, and DJ Moore.  Was determined to have more reliable WR depth this season.  And, still ended up with Chubb and Fournette.  Now, Fournette getting cut out of the blue hurts, but if he lands with the right team, he can still be a workhorse.   

[Seeking6]

4 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

Last year, Chubb and Fournette did just fine for me at RB.  Both were steady and, most importantly, reliable.  Kelce was my tight end.  Underachieved at WR with Hopkins, who had down year, A. Cooper, who had some injury issues, and DJ Moore.  Was determined to have more reliable WR depth this season.  And, still ended up with Chubb and Fournette.  Now, Fournette getting cut out of the blue hurts, but if he lands with the right team, he can still be a workhorse.   

Yep. And if you play the wire or draft any of the 5-6 must have handcuffs your one injury away from having an RB1 that you got in the 7th round and later. Guy took Chubb last year at 8 and it changed at that very moment for me. Went Thomas, Kelce, Thielen, Godwin, and Watson with my first 5. Never looked back. 

[tdhoosier]

1 minute ago, Seeking6 said:

My brother in law is more your strategy. In a passing league I try to load up on as many elite receiving options as possible. Downside is we have to scramble for RB's but that kind of makes it fun too! All fun to discuss different strategies!

For the record, it's not the quality of all those good receivers in the first few rounds. I love all the guys you and @5fouls mention. My issue (in both full point and half point PPR leagues) is the lack of quality running backs available after round 3. That's where I've gotten burned in the past. And I've gotten double burned when you reach for that top non WR positional player (Gronk for example) and he doesn't pan out. 

Always fun to talk about strategery because there are no "right" answers. Sometimes I feel like relying on strategy in Fantasy Football, is almost as silly as relying on strategy in euchre or making NCAA Tournament picks. Strategy is only going to get you so far, in the end it's all about luck.

[5fouls]

2 minutes ago, tdhoosier said:

. Strategy is only going to get you so far, in the end it's all about luck.

But it's fun to talk about.

[Seeking6]

Just now, tdhoosier said:

For the record, it's not the quality of all those good receivers in the first few rounds. I love all the guys you and @5fouls mention. My issue (in both full point and half point PPR leagues) is the lack of quality running backs available after round 3. That's where I've gotten burned in the past. And I've gotten double burned when you reach for that top non WR positional player (Gronk for example) and he doesn't pan out. 

Always fun to talk about strategery because there are no "right" answers. Sometimes I feel like relying on strategy in Fantasy Football, is almost as silly as relying on strategy in euchre or making NCAA Tournament picks. Strategy is only going to get you so far, in the end it's all about luck.

And that's the thing too. I don't view it as luck but different strategies. For example. James Conner is all ready to go again this year but he has health issues and concerns personally. Percentage wise that tells me during these times he's probably going to miss a few games because of Covid. Getting Snell in round 10 or later buys me a RB1 for those weeks. 

Definitely makes you be more active on the wire but fun too.