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Lineup/Rotation Predictions coming out of HH


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9 hours ago, BGleas said:

I’m sorry to hop into this debate all the time, but I’ve yet to hear from anyone what skills Smith has to play the wing? He’s a minus at shooting, ball handling, passing, distributing, etc. 

You're cherry picking skills to support your argument.  :coffee:

Why don't we list the reasons why he can play the three.

  • Players names 'Smith' have been playing the 3 spot since shortly after basketball was invented.
  • Uhhh.... That's all I got.

 

 

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9 hours ago, BGleas said:

I just don’t get it. I’m not trying to be combative with people, I’ve just never seen Smith show any skill at all to play the 3 or wing. Unless he’s drastically changed his game and improved his skills, he’s never show an ability for it. I don’t get what people are seeing?

First, let me say that I think you're one of the more respected voices on this forum. Knowledgeable but never condescending.

But I'd really like to know if you believe that one of our bigs (Brunk or De'ron), TJD, and Justin will never be on the floor together. 

I try not to get too caught up in the position numbering system, but in that scenario, either TJD or Smith would be by default a 3, right? 

I do understand that having Justin in a position where he has to handle the ball and facilitate, while being expected to shoot at least adequately from the outside is not the best option Archie has, but I do think there will be times where he will be on the floor with the group I mentioned.

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2 hours ago, IUFLA said:

First, let me say that I think you're one of the more respected voices on this forum. Knowledgeable but never condescending.

But I'd really like to know if you believe that one of our bigs (Brunk or De'ron), TJD, and Justin will never be on the floor together. 

I try not to get too caught up in the position numbering system, but in that scenario, either TJD or Smith would be by default a 3, right? 

I do understand that having Justin in a position where he has to handle the ball and facilitate, while being expected to shoot at least adequately from the outside is not the best option Archie has, but I do think there will be times where he will be on the floor with the group I mentioned.

I think that's exactly why Justin is not a three. Such a lineup would mean he's out there on the floor with two other guys who also aren't ball handlers or shooters. De'Ron's at least a fine passer out of the post, but Brunk, Race and Smith are not facilitators; I don't know if that's in Tracye's game or not. Either way, that's three guys on the floor without any perimeter game. That lineup might be able to play bully ball against a team without the size to challenge down low, but it's not dynamic enough to compete in the Big Ten. All the complaints last season of lack of shooting and clogged lanes would be exacerbated by such a lineup. 

To answer @BGleas, I think people want Justin to be a wing because our roster is so heavy in the frontcourt. We have lots of options at the four and five, fewer options to spread between the one, two and three. If Justin has developed wings skills, which would be a pleasant surprise, it would solve a lot of problems for us. As it is, I think you may be right that we might be forced at times to play the lineup you described above. But I don't think it's a good idea, and brings to mind some of the lineups last season, particularly when neither Romeo nor Juwan was on the floor, that had us asking how this team was going to score.

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12 hours ago, BGleas said:

I’m sorry to hop into this debate all the time, but I’ve yet to hear from anyone what skills Smith has to play the wing? He’s a minus at shooting, ball handling, passing, distributing, etc. 

Ha. I feel I do the exact same thing about the NLI rule....and imagine people on the other side of the computer telling me to 'shut up already!'

I'm not bothered by it because I think you're right....this time. haha. Full discretion though,  if I thought you were wrong there's a possibility I might be thinking: 'shut up already' as well. 😎 Ahhhhh, message boards - that's why we love em. 

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54 minutes ago, Maedhros said:

I think that's exactly why Justin is not a three. Such a lineup would mean he's also out there on the floor with two other guys who also aren't ball handlers or shooters. De'Ron's at least a fine passer out of the post, but Brunk, Race and Smith are not facilitators; I don't know if that's in Tracye's game or not. Either way, that's three guys on the floor without any perimeter game. That lineup might be able to play bully ball against a team without the size to challenge down low, but it's not dynamic enough to compete in the Big Ten. All the complaints last season of lack of shooting and clogged lanes would be exacerbated by such a lineup. 

To answer @BGleas, I think want people Justin to be a wing because our roster is so heavy in the frontcourt. We have lots of options at the four and five, fewer options to spread between the one, two and three. If Justin has developed wings skills, which would be a pleasant surprise, it would solve a lot of problems for us. As it is, I think you may be right that we might be forced at times to play the lineup you described above. But I don't think it's a good idea, and brings to mind some of the lineups last season, particularly when neither Romeo nor Juwan was on the floor, that had us asking how this team was going to score.

This is well said, imo.

Yes, it would not be surprising to see a 'big' front court lineup like this at times, in spurts, but that doesn't make Smith a 3. 

As an aside to this entire discussion, if Smith has developed his shooting and handle over the summer (which seems like a lot to ask, but is possible), then that would be terrific both for him and the team.

That said, he should have the opportunity to thrive at his natural forward position, without the need to peg him into a position that does not fit his game, for me, that's what I'm hoping to see -- better movement, spacing and outside shooting, giving Smith more room to work with the other forward / front-court player, allowing more baseline / backcourt cut plays, etc. 

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52 minutes ago, Maedhros said:

I think that's exactly why Justin is not a three. Such a lineup would mean he's also out there on the floor with two other guys who also aren't ball handlers or shooters. De'Ron's at least a fine passer out of the post, but Brunk, Race and Smith are not facilitators; I don't know if that's in Tracye's game or not. Either way, that's three guys on the floor without any perimeter game. That lineup might be able to play bully ball against a team without the size to challenge down low, but it's not dynamic enough to compete in the Big Ten. All the complaints last season of lack of shooting and clogged lanes would be exacerbated by such a lineup. 

To answer @BGleas, I think want people Justin to be a wing because our roster is so heavy in the frontcourt. We have lots of options at the four and five, fewer options to spread between the one, two and three. If Justin has developed wings skills, which would be a pleasant surprise, it would solve a lot of problems for us. As it is, I think you may be right that we might be forced at times to play the lineup you described above. But I don't think it's a good idea, and brings to mind some of the lineups last season, particularly when neither Romeo nor Juwan was on the floor, that had us asking how this team was going to score.

I appreciate what you're saying, but I do think there will be times that the lineup I mentioned will be on the floor, be it through rest considerations, injuries (God, I hope that's limited), foul trouble, or match-ups. Whether it's Justin or TJD playing more on the perimeter is a question to be answered.

Some people have said they were surprised by TJD's athleticism at MM. I watched a few of his full high school games (not just highlights), and while I saw some holes in his game, his limited perimeter game impressed the hell out of me. Good handle, and seemed comfortable putting the ball on the floor. Outside shot had decent form, but, again, in a very limited sample size.

Good discussion...

 

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10 minutes ago, Hoosierhoopster said:

This is well said, imo.

Yes, it would not be surprising to see a 'big' front court lineup like this at times, in spurts, but that doesn't make Smith a 3. 

As an aside to this entire discussion, if Smith has developed his shooting and handle over the summer (which seems like a lot to ask, but is possible), then that would be terrific both for him and the team.

That said, he should have the opportunity to thrive at his natural forward position, without the need to peg him into a position that does not fit his game, for me, that's what I'm hoping to see -- better movement, spacing and outside shooting, giving Smith more room to work with the other forward / front-court player, allowing more baseline / backcourt cut plays, etc. 

Which is way I think the numbering is good for a loose definition, but semantics in application.

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Just now, IUFLA said:

I appreciate what you're saying, but I do think there will be times that the lineup I mentioned will be on the floor, be it through rest considerations, injuries (God, I hope that's limited), foul trouble, or match-ups. Whether it's Justin or TJD playing more on the perimeter is a question to be answered.

Some people have said they were surprised by TJD's athleticism at MM. I watched a few of his full high school games (not just highlights), and while I saw some holes in his game, his limited perimeter game impressed the hell out of me. Good handle, and seemed comfortable putting the ball on the floor. Outside shot had decent form, but, again, in a very limited sample size.

Good discussion...

 

I agree, I think we'll see that lineup too, for many of the reasons you gave. It's one reason I'm not particularly optimistic heading into the season. I don't think our parts fit together particularly well, not until I've seen what sort of leaps have been made in the offseason. Last year we ran three guard lineups with four scholarship guards. When one of those players was injured, suspended, or in foul trouble, it pulled Justin to the perimeter. He did not thrive. This year we still only have four scholarship guards, and one a freshman. We're deep in the frontcourt, but in trouble if we have to play more than two of those guys together for very long. We really need Jerome to hold up for the entire season on the wing, or for Damezi to have taken the leap to become a reliable part of the rotation. If both happen, and our guards stay healthy, this roster clicks into place quite nicely! But there are also a lot of pressure points on the roster, where it could all fall apart quickly if adversity hits in the wrong place.

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I think it's a combination of us fans being cautious to think that Jerome is ready and going to get 25-30 minutes at the 3, along with the fact that Demezi seems another year away from ready, so Smith is the last man standing to take minutes at the 3.  To go along with what most think is obvious, Davis and Brunk get 20 mins a piece at the 5.  TJD gets 25-30, Smith and Race get the other 10-15 at the 4.  Sometimes Smith may slide over for a few minutes here and there at the 3.  I haven't seen anyone call Smith a wing or a 3.  Not sure what all the fuss is about.  

One of three things is likely to happen.

1. Jerome takes the share at 3, split the last few minutes up with a guard, Demezi, or Justin

2. 3 guard line up because Jerome isn't ready for bulk of minutes, Demezi and Justin split the rest

3. Demezi and Justin see bulk, no three guard line up, Jerome no go.  

In all three scenarios, Justin is only at the 3 out of sheer necessity, not because he is a 3 or wing.   

I've been wrong before so this may be all wrong, lol

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1 hour ago, IUFLA said:

Which is way I think the numbering is good for a loose definition, but semantics in application.

I don't think the wing / three is semantics. Again, just because Smith might be on the floor at the same time as other forwards at some point would not make him a three/wing. He's not a wing, unless he's made real improvements/changes to his outside game and handle. I think we've run this horse to ground!

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50 minutes ago, Hoosierhoopster said:

I don't think the wing / three is semantics. Again, just because Smith might be on the floor at the same time as other forwards at some point would not make him a three/wing. He's not a wing, unless he's made real improvements/changes to his outside game and handle. I think we've run this horse to ground!

I have 3 horses, so we still have 2 to ride! 🙂

I say that with this thought in mind...

BGleas laid out very nicely the skillset required for a "classic 3." And I totally agree that Justin lacks some of those requisite skills, particularly on the offensive end.

But, due to the in game factors I listed above, it becomes semantics when CAM is putting a lineup out on the floor. Someone in a lineup of De'ron, TJD, Smith, and whatever 2 guards has to play at least some of the 3's role for the offense to function correctly.

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15 hours ago, BGleas said:

I just don’t get it. I’m not trying to be combative with people, I’ve just never seen Smith show any skill at all to play the 3 or wing. Unless he’s drastically changed his game and improved his skills, he’s never show an ability for it. I don’t get what people are seeing?

Defense.....

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15 hours ago, hoosier_exotics said:

Zero chance this kid doesnt start. I hope we can keep him more than one year

TJD isn't listed on a single NBA mock draft for 2020. He will be here at least 2.....and depending on when the one and done rule goes away.....maybe more.....

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1 minute ago, JugRox said:

Defense.....

Right, but you don't really 'play the 3' on defense. You play your matchup. Positions are typically more designated to your offensive role, not defensive. I use the Christian Watford example again, he often defended dynamic point guards later in his career, but nobody would call him a point guard. Offensively he was our stretch 4/forward. 

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5 minutes ago, BGleas said:

Right, but you don't really 'play the 3' on defense. You play your matchup. Positions are typically more designated to your offensive role, not defensive. I use the Christian Watford example again, he often defended dynamic point guards later in his career, but nobody would call him a point guard. Offensively he was our stretch 4/forward. 

Smith can defend the 3, 4, and some 2. That's what he brings to the table.

It enables other players to play a position on offense that doesn't force them to defend.

Perfect example...... Hunter....

Hunter can play the wing on offense but not forced to defend a quicker player on defense. 

Smith can be used to cause match up problems.

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6 hours ago, IUFLA said:

First, let me say that I think you're one of the more respected voices on this forum. Knowledgeable but never condescending.

But I'd really like to know if you believe that one of our bigs (Brunk or De'ron), TJD, and Justin will never be on the floor together. 

I try not to get too caught up in the position numbering system, but in that scenario, either TJD or Smith would be by default a 3, right? 

I do understand that having Justin in a position where he has to handle the ball and facilitate, while being expected to shoot at least adequately from the outside is not the best option Archie has, but I do think there will be times where he will be on the floor with the group I mentioned.

Thank you for the kind words, I've always enjoyed your posts as well!

I'm with you as far as positioning numbering systems, though I use them here because it makes discussion easier. IMO on offense we have a guard, 2 wings, a forward and a big. Justin Smith is a forward in our offense. Yes, he's on the perimeter a lot, but it's as a ball screener and receiver of plays created by the wings/guards. If you move him to the wing, Smith now needs to be a creator and ball handler off of ball screens, and he's is not good at that. 

I also think we'll see that big lineup at times, though I don't think it will work out very well. I also think if Smith is getting regular minutes at the wing/3, then it either means things have gone incredibly poorly for Hunter, Anderson and Franklin and/or Smith has made some drastic improvements to his game. If Hunter is healthy and legit and one of Anderson or Franklin can play productive minutes, which I think we'll be surprised by Franklin, then I don't see any reason to play Smith in that spot. 

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5 minutes ago, JugRox said:

Smith can defend the 3, 4, and some 2. That's what he brings to the table.

It enables other players to play a position on offense that doesn't force them to defend.

Perfect example...... Hunter....

Hunter can play the wing on offense but not forced to defend a quicker player on defense. 

Smith can be used to cause match up problems.

Right, but if we're labeling positions, in that scenario Hunter is still the wing/3 and Smith is the forward/4. I agree with Mile's post above that we're kind of getting into the semantics, but there is a clear difference in the offensive positions, skillset required, etc. between a wing and a forward. Defensively, with today's ball screen/switching philosophies, you quite often don't end up defending the same person/spot you began on a possession. 

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Justin can defend the 3 just fine. I'm sure in limited minutes we will use him there. The big issue is even if he has improved his jumper it's that we run that stupid weave out front. That means both wings have to be able to handle the ball, drive, make decisions, and be good passers (entry to post and out top). I've seen nothing from Justin to suggest we want him handling the ball out front. When he drives he shows no decision making ability. Just straight to the rim run over anyone in his way. He has no left hand...and I've not seen him make great passing decisions. So even if we have great shooting at the point and shooting guard I'm not sure Justin has the tools to play out top and handle the ball much.

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2 hours ago, JugRox said:

TJD isn't listed on a single NBA mock draft for 2020. He will be here at least 2.....and depending on when the one and done rule goes away.....maybe more.....

I'm not really expecting a one & done, but I think it's certainly possible.  I doubt Ja Morant was listed in the early mocks either.

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23 hours ago, JugRox said:

Hunter will play the 3.

And who exactly are the 3 "bad" shooters with....

Davis, Smith, Hunter, Green, and Rob?

Rotate TJD with Smith and Brunk with Davis....Anderson can spell the 4.......and Al rotate with the 2 and 3....and Armaan at the 1 (I don't think Armaan plays much this year).

And you still have Thompson...who IMO will get 7-10 mins a game somewhere.

Anderson couldn't be on floor as same time as Smith....ill give ya that one.....but that's way more for ball handling than shooting.

Smith can easily guard the 3......remember that. So, whoever you put in at the 3 on Offense won't need to guard that position on defense if Smith is on the floor.

I see where the disconnect is... I shouldn’t have said he’ll never see the floor with only two other guards, because I definitely think that he’ll be able to play with two guards, Hunter/Anderson, and one other big on the floor.  But as others have said, he’s still the 4 in those lineups.  

A better way to put it would have been to say he’ll never be on the floor with two other bigs — those bigs being TJD, Thompson, Davis, and Brunk.  If we’re regularly playing lineups with Smith and two of those bigs on the floor, we’re going to be atrocious on offense again.

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