BGleas Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 IU isn't ranked because of the eye test. All these road teams, certainly in the Big Ten and even in other conferences, are getting blown out, but we let Nebraska take us to 2OT and barely squeaked by NW at home. If IU had won those two games by 15, we're probably ranked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JugRox Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 35 minutes ago, 13th&Jackson said: KenPom has OSU #7, so by his formula they're currently a 2 seed. KenPom is still using data from last year. I think when the current season hits 20 games, all data is from this year. That might not make a huge difference to OSU, but UNC, UK, and Villanova that OSU beat it makes a difference. Especially UNC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUFLA Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 12 minutes ago, IU Scott said: Now you see why I hate analytics because is does not use common sense The day I come across a mathematical problem that has a "common sense symbol" I'm just gonna hang it up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IU Scott Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, JugRox said: KenPom is still using data from last year. I think when the current season hits 20 games, all data is from this year. That might not make a huge difference to OSU, but UNC, UK, and Villanova that OSU beat it makes a difference. Especially UNC. That is a terrible formula to use if they use last years data because it has nothing to do with what is happening this year. I am so tired of sports turning so robotic and sterile and how people think everything has to be perfect. Like replay in sports where everyone wants every call to be perfect but to me it just takes a lot of the excitement away from the game. I feel the same way with computer and analytics trying to tell me who are the best teams. Watch the damn game and form your own opinion instead of relying on computers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IU Scott Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 1 minute ago, IUFLA said: The day I come across a mathematical problem that has a "common sense symbol" I'm just gonna hang it up... So you like that OSU is still ranked #7 in the country when everyone knows they are not even close to that ranking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUFLA Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, IU Scott said: So you like that OSU is still ranked #7 in the country when everyone knows they are not even close to that ranking In theory, no, but as JugRox said, they're still using some of last year's data. They have no other baseline to work with. It'll all be kosher in the end... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IU Scott Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 Just now, IUFLA said: In theory, no, but as JugRox said, they're still using some of last year's data. They have no other baseline to work with. It'll all be kosher in the end... I just don't understand using last years data for this years results just stupid if you ask me. They are trying to program fans to not think for themselves and to me it is sad when people only use data for their arguments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
13th&Jackson Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 10 minutes ago, JugRox said: KenPom is still using data from last year. I think when the current season hits 20 games, all data is from this year. That might not make a huge difference to OSU, but UNC, UK, and Villanova that OSU beat it makes a difference. Especially UNC. Not challenging what you're saying, but assuming all that is true, it still doesn't pass the smell test. If last year is still a major input, OSU ended 2019 #44, losers of 8 of their last 12. That should pull them down not prop them up. Also, UNC is currently #83, 16 games in to this season. 2019 doesn't seem to be propping up their ranking, but a win over them is propping up OSU? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zlinedavid Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 8 minutes ago, IU Scott said: I just don't understand using last years data for this years results just stupid if you ask me. Either you use a sample size that falls below a usable confidence interval, or you artificially inflate the sample size using past data. Neither one is perfect. Pomeroy chooses the latter, others use the former (and may or may not disclose it). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IU Scott Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, Zlinedavid said: Either you use a sample size that falls below a usable confidence interval, or you artificially inflate the sample size using past data. Neither one is perfect. Pomeroy chooses the latter, others use the former (and may or may not disclose it). How about waiting until now to worry about rankings and there is no need to have rankings early in the season anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUFLA Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 Just now, IU Scott said: How about waiting until now to worry about rankings and there is no need to have rankings early in the season anyways. You don't have to be an anti-analytics Nazi...some people enjoy that kind of stuff. Just because you don't doesn't mean it should be outlawed... I tend to avoid things I don't care for... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CincyHoosier Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 We are not going to get the benefit of the doubt, nor should we. This team has to go out and earn respect. Fortunately they can in a loaded big 10. Have to string together some more wins and the rest will work itself out. Being competitive in upcoming road games also matters, even with a few losses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IU Scott Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, IUFLA said: You don't have to be an anti-analytics Nazi...some people enjoy that kind of stuff. Just because you don't doesn't mean it should be outlawed... I tend to avoid things I don't care for... To me any rankings based on last year is totally idiotic because what happened last year has no bearing n this years team. You could have been a great team last year but lost all 5 starters so why would that teams stats be used for this years team. The reason I care is that I feel it is ruining sports which I love and it effects my ability to enjoy those sports. it is just not analytics but like replay and the overall thinking that every little detail has to be over analyzed to death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FKIM01 Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 Just now, IU Scott said: To me any rankings based on last year is totally idiotic because what happened last year has no bearing n this years team. You could have been a great team last year but lost all 5 starters so why would that teams stats be used for this years team. There's not much influence left from last year at this stage in the game. It gets gradually eliminated until it's completely gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosierhoopster Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, IU Scott said: How about waiting until now to worry about rankings and there is no need to have rankings early in the season anyways. But then what would sites like ESPN do? Hahaha. Follow the money. KenPom provides his service for money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zlinedavid Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 33 minutes ago, IU Scott said: Now you see why I hate analytics because is does not use common sense 20 minutes ago, IUFLA said: The day I come across a mathematical problem that has a "common sense symbol" I'm just gonna hang it up... Common sense? Eh...depends on your definition of "common". Here's an example: I take a survey of 10 residents of the state of Indiana, asking them who their favorite college basketball team is. 9 out of those 10 answer "Purdue". Is it safe to assume that based on that data, 90% of college basketball fans in Indiana are Purdue fans? The answer is, of course not. Maybe all of them are from West Lafayette. Maybe 8 of them had Nojel Eastern's mom glaring at them while they answered, and the 9th is Kent Benson. The point is, the sample size of 10 is not large enough to confidently extrapolate the results to the entire population of the state. This is what is occurring with statistical models at the beginning of a season. 3, 4, 5 games per team isn't large enough of a sample to say with confidence that it could apply to a whole season. So, back to my survey example. What could I do to increase the sample size? Well, the captain obvious answer is "Ask more people", which is correct. But let's say that for whatever reason, I can't. Let's say that I conducted a similar survey of 10,000 residents last July. I could combine the two data sets and have a more confident answer. Could opinions have changed since then? Yes. But which would you rather gamble on if you had to use one or the other? Statistically insignificant and 100% recent, or statistically significant but potentially dated? It's a double edged sword. Pomeroy is good about stating this, that as the season goes along, his model will become more accurate. Is it perfect? No. It's an evaluation tool like any other. NOBODY IS SAYING IT IS THE ALMIGHTY MISS CLEO LEVEL ORACLE SENT STRAIGHT FROM HEAVEN, EVEN THE PERSON THAT BUILT IT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IU Scott Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 1 minute ago, FKIM01 said: There's not much influence left from last year at this stage in the game. It gets gradually eliminated until it's completely gone. So how do you explain OSU at 11-5 being ranked 7th which is totally idiotic. This has nothing to do with IU not being ranked because I don't think we probably should be ranked but just hate seeing everything based on analytics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUFLA Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 1 minute ago, IU Scott said: To me any rankings based on last year is totally idiotic because what happened last year has no bearing n this years team. You could have been a great team last year but lost all 5 starters so why would that teams stats be used for this years team. It's a little more complex than that...I started reading how he comes up with preseason rankings and how it changes as the season progresses. I finally came to the fact that I was the monkey looking at the bright red ball... So, for me, it's IU 1 Good IU 100 Bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zlinedavid Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 7 minutes ago, IU Scott said: How about waiting until now to worry about rankings and there is no need to have rankings early in the season anyways. Pomeroy's metrics aren't "rankings". Rankings are for a snapshot in time. "This week, the top 25 teams are...." His system is a forward looking model. "Given all that has occurred so far, if the trends continue the way they have, this is how the season will finish....". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FKIM01 Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 1 minute ago, IU Scott said: So how do you explain OSU at 11-5 being ranked 7th which is totally idiotic. This has nothing to do with IU not being ranked because I don't think we probably should be ranked but just hate seeing everything based on analytics. Well, before these past four games, they were really, really good. All that's still factored in as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IU Scott Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 1 minute ago, Zlinedavid said: Pomeroy's metrics aren't "rankings". Rankings are for a snapshot in time. "This week, the top 25 teams are...." His system is a forward looking model. "Given all that has occurred so far, if the trends continue the way they have, this is how the season will finish....". Like I have said why do everyone has to over analyze every little aspect of the game. Without looking at any of this data and just going by what I have seen I could probably get most of the rankings correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CincyHoosier Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 1 minute ago, Zlinedavid said: Pomeroy's metrics aren't "rankings". Rankings are for a snapshot in time. "This week, the top 25 teams are...." His system is a forward looking model. "Given all that has occurred so far, if the trends continue the way they have, this is how the season will finish....". This. The interpretation of Kenpom requires the correct perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IU Scott Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 Just now, FKIM01 said: Well, before these past four games, they were really, really good. All that's still factored in as well. But this weeks rankings should consider the last 4 games and the over all record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IU Scott Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 Just now, CincyHoosier said: This. The interpretation of Kenpom requires the correct perspective. What is that, we should allow bunch of computer geeks who probably don't know the game tell us who are the best teams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zlinedavid Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 1 minute ago, IU Scott said: So how do you explain OSU at 11-5 being ranked 7th which is totally idiotic. This has nothing to do with IU not being ranked because I don't think we probably should be ranked but just hate seeing everything based on analytics. Because cumulatively to this point in the season, in the context of his model, they are. The last 5 games haven't been all that great, but that's what I appreciate about models like this. They're not reflective of the past week or two weeks. They're not based on opinions that are influenced by recent events. They take everything that has happened to date and push the outlook forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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