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The Bowl Speculation Thread


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So....you just had your first 8 win season this millennium.  Where are you going? Disney World? 

Here's the situation with the B10 and bowl selection.  We have 9 bowl eligible teams: 

Ohio State (12-0)
Penn State (10-2)
Wisconsin (10-2)
Minnesota (10-2)
Michigan (9-3)
Iowa (9-3)
Indiana (8-4)
Michigan State (6-6)
Illinois (6-6)

The B10 is affiliated with the following bowls, in their 2019 order of selection: 

College Football Playoff
Rose Bowl
Orange Bowl (potentially)
Cotton Bowl (potentially)

Citrus Bowl
Outback Bowl
Holiday Bowl
Music City Bowl or Gator Bowl
Pinstripe Bowl
Redbox Bowl
Quick Lane Bowl
First Responder Bowl
Armed Forces Bowl

The way teams are assigned to bowls follows the following rules: 

  • The champion will play in the Rose Bowl, if not selected by the CFP.  If the champion is in the CFP, the Rose has the first selection of remaining teams.
  • After the CFP and the Rose, the B10 could also have a team selected to the Orange and/or Cotton Bowls.  The Orange Bowl's matchup is an ACC team vs either a B10/SEC team or Notre Dame.  The Cotton Bowl is two at-large teams this year.  
  • After the CFP, the Rose and any other New Year's Six bowls, the Citrus Bowl has the first selection of remaining teams.....if a team is not selected by the Orange Bowl.  If a B10 team appears in the Orange Bowl, it forfeits its place in the Citrus Bowl and then the first selection will go to the Outback Bowl. 
  • Teams can be selected out of order, but cannot be selected ahead of a team with two more wins.  Example: This year, Indiana could be selected before Iowa or Michigan, but could not be selected ahead of Penn State, Wisconsin or Minnesota.  Michigan State or Illinois cannot be selected ahead of Indiana. 
  • All bowls below the Citrus Bowl have agreed to have a minimum of 5 different teams represent the B10 in the 2014-2019 seasons.  However, the above rule trumps this rule.  

(Everyone still awake? Beuller?) 

Now, the speculative part.  I think it's a pretty good assumption that Ohio State will be in the CFP.  With the Buckeyes off the table, that means the Rose has to select one of: 

  • Penn State
  • Minnesota
  • Wisconsin
  • Michigan
  • Iowa

Now, in all likelihood, they won't select Michigan or Iowa out of a sense of tradition (since ideally, they have the B10 champion).  I don't think they'd pick Minnesota, since they lost the head-to-head matchup with Wisconsin.  My guess, is that it'll come down to how Wisconsin looks vs Ohio State.  If they put up a good fight and keep it relatively close, they may still get in the Rose.  They get blown out, and it'll go to Penn State.  

Now, there's still the matter of the other two New Year's Six games, which will cause the dominoes to fall one way or the other.  

For the below, "10-Win" refers to one of Wisconsin, Penn State or Minnesota.

  CFP/Rose Only CFP/Rose/Cotton CFP/Rose/Cotton/Orange
CFP Ohio State Ohio State Ohio State
Rose 10-Win 1 10-Win 1 10-Win 1
Cotton   10-Win 2 10-Win 2
Orange     10-Win 3
Citrus 10-Win 2 10-Win 3 none
Outback 10-Win 3 Indiana1 Indiana1
Holiday Mich/Iowa/Ind 1 Mich/Iowa 1 Mich/Iowa 1
Music City/Gator Mich/Iowa/Ind 2 Mich/Iowa 2 Mich/Iowa 2
Pinstripe Mich/Iowa/Ind 3 Michigan State2 Michigan State2
Redbox Illinois Illinois2 Illinois2
Quick Lane Michigan State none none

Note 1: If everything goes by the rules, if either 1 or 2 B10 teams get at-large bids to NY6 games, the Outback should be obligated to take Indiana.  Iowa has appeared twice in the Outback twice since 2014, and Michigan has appeared once.  The only way to keep the 5-teams-in-6-years rule is to take Indiana. 

Note 2: Michigan State has appeared in the Redbox bowl previously and has not appeared in the Pinstripe. The Pinstripe would select Michigan State, if it were not obligated to take the 3rd of Michigan/Iowa/Indiana, with Illinois going to the Redbox Bowl. If having the option, the Redbox would select Illinois, with Michigan State going to the Quick Lane.

Note from Author: This is all to the best of my knowledge.  You need an abacus and a quantum computer to keep this $&#! straight.  

So, the projected Music City Bowl matchup with Kentucky may not be such a lock. For that to happen, we'd have to be bypassed by the Holiday (fairly likely), but for the Music City to bypass 9 win Iowa for us.  That may happen in the Gator, since Iowa has appeared in it previously.  However, if everything goes by the rules, if we get 2 or 3 teams in the NY6/CFP, we'd be going to the Outback.  

Long story short......there's still a lot to be shaken out.  These projections cannot be used to make financial decisions (legal or otherwise) in accordance with blah blah Safe Harbor Statement.  Do not rebroadcast or reproduce without express written consent of the NFL. Close cover before striking.  

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Minnesota will not get a New Year's 6 bowl.  I think Penn State is a lock for one.  It's a long shot for a 3 loss Wisconsin team to get one, so for your second scenario to play out, the Badgers would need to beat the Buckeyes..  In that scenario OSU still gets into the playoff, albeit as the 3 or 4 seed.  

I really do not want to play UK in a bowl.  I work with too many UK fans and I do not like the way our defense is playing right now.  I would rather lose to Florida or Auburn by a bunch than to UK by a point.

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6 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

Minnesota will not get a New Year's 6 bowl.  I think Penn State is a lock for one.  It's a long shot for a 3 loss Wisconsin team to get one, so for your second scenario to play out, the Badgers would need to beat the Buckeyes..  In that scenario OSU still gets into the playoff, albeit as the 3 or 4 seed.  

I really do not want to play UK in a bowl.  I work with too many UK fans and I do not like the way our defense is playing right now.  I would rather lose to Florida or Auburn by a bunch than to UK by a point.

It's a long shot, but crazier stuff has happened. The biggest variable still in play is which/how many SEC teams get in the playoff.

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2 hours ago, 5fouls said:

Minnesota will not get a New Year's 6 bowl.  I think Penn State is a lock for one.  It's a long shot for a 3 loss Wisconsin team to get one, so for your second scenario to play out, the Badgers would need to beat the Buckeyes..  In that scenario OSU still gets into the playoff, albeit as the 3 or 4 seed.  

I really do not want to play UK in a bowl.  I work with too many UK fans and I do not like the way our defense is playing right now.  I would rather lose to Florida or Auburn by a bunch than to UK by a point.

 

"Blind" side by side: 

Team A and Team B are both undefeated overall, and in conference going into their head to head game. 

Team A wins against Team B.

Team A loses to a main rival that finishes with 9 wins 3 losses. Team B escapes 8-4 team in a game 8-4 team looks arguably better.Both games are close.

Team A wins against lower tier. Team B gets blown out by #1 and CFP contender.

Team A loses to 10 win 2 loss main rival who is in the conference title game. Team B beats the conference's most unimpressive opponent.

Team A is Minnesota. Team B is Penn State.

That is going into right now from where I sit, and rivalry factor is huge in this IMO. My opinion is of course worth nothing to the people picking the teams. Ranking count too, so there is that, but if it were to come to the recent , and being objective I would also think Minny should have no less of a shot based on enough to make a valid argument.: 

There really isn't a lot that is substantial from late season, to separate Penn State- especially if starting from their meeting. That is, other than name , but this is College Football and the big money bowls so you might be right.Name and ranking which moves the actual  debate to being more subjective.

Wisconsin winning the B1G Championship could completely wipe this out. Minnesota's loss to them would have to gain some degree of "quality" because anyone in the B1G beating OSU is nearly unthinkable at this point.

Even assuming the Badgers end up with 3'Ls..Struggling somewhat against Rutgers might be the worst looking factor of all of those above. It is to me. 

For the mere sake of objective discussion I'm curious how you guys view this. Does either B1G Title Game scenario actually hurt Minny's slotting  more or Penn State instead- if all of these things are considered ? 

 

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