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ESPN article on Indiana


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Good article. We have plenty of issues, but the way teams have shot the three against us has been extremely unlucky so far. Opponents are now 39 of 77 from deep - just over 50%. Things will look a lot better when that regresses to the mean. I'll share another article about how teams have little control over opponent three point percentage:

https://kenpom.com/blog/3point-defense-should-not-be-defined-by-opponents-3p/

Edited by Shooter
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12 hours ago, Shooter said:

Good article. We have plenty of issues, but the way teams have shot the three against us has been extremely unlucky so far. Opponents are now 39 of 77 from deep - just over 50%. Things will look a lot better when that regresses to the mean. I'll share another article about how teams have little control over opponent three point percentage:

https://kenpom.com/blog/3point-defense-should-not-be-defined-by-opponents-3p/

Sorry to disagree but one team shooting great from 3 is one team being lucky.  3 teams shooting great form 3 is not just IU being unlucky.

Edited by IowaHoosierFan
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28 minutes ago, IowaHoosierFan said:

Sorry to disagree but one team shooting great from 3 is one team being lucky.  3 teams shooting great form 3 is not just IU being unlucky.

Howard had a forward who went for an abysmal 1-9 from 3 against us, otherwise they would have shot over 50% as well.

Our guards are pathetic on defense and at least one, RoJo, was supposed to be known for his ability on that end. He's given up 24 points to Brenton Scott, 16 to Foster/27 to Cole (I don't remember which one he was primarily guarding) against Howard, and 23 to Rodriguez against Seton Hall... I get he obviously wasn't on the floor for all the points scored but his effort/ability on D so far has been unacceptable....and I'm not just picking on him because Newkirk and Green haven't been much if at all better, they just draw less talented opponents than RoJo. And before I get reminded of how the pack line defense works again, and that it can be prone to giving up 3's, that's now how it's designed to work. It's supposed to take away the post to force contested 3's, not give up open looks all night long, which has been only half the battle....we're not stopping dribble drives in the lane and forcing their guys out of what they want to do with the ball either...Let's hope Archie can coach them up and get them to do what it takes to be a good defensive team because right now we look really bad on that end.

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4 minutes ago, KoB2011 said:

Why is it laughable? 

Because according to the rules of the game of basketball, you are allowed to defend the three point line, and you are not allowed to defend the free throw line.  It’s a ridiculous comparison.  People can try to reduce basketball to a numbers game all they want, but it’s not.  Good defense will not allow opposing teams to repeatedly “get lucky” from three.  

This is the last post I’m going to make in this thread, because the discussion annoys me, and no one is going to change their minds. 

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21 minutes ago, FW_Hoosier said:

Because according to the rules of the game of basketball, you are allowed to defend the three point line, and you are not allowed to defend the free throw line.  It’s a ridiculous comparison.  People can try to reduce basketball to a numbers game all they want, but it’s not.  Good defense will not allow opposing teams to repeatedly “get lucky” from three.  

This is the last post I’m going to make in this thread, because the discussion annoys me, and no one is going to change their minds. 

Did you even read the article? The point was the best way to defend the three is to not allow teams to get shots off just like the best say to avoid teams making free throws is to not let them get to the foul line. 

Good to know that being presented with facts and evidence that contradicts your view annoys you. I can't say I agree that no one will change their mind, I know if you showed me evidence that defense has a strong impact on three point percentage I would reconsider my position. 

No one believes defensive problems aren't part of the equation, we are very clearly not closing out on shooters well which results in too many three point attempts. 

 

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11 hours ago, FW_Hoosier said:

Because according to the rules of the game of basketball, you are allowed to defend the three point line, and you are not allowed to defend the free throw line.  It’s a ridiculous comparison.  People can try to reduce basketball to a numbers game all they want, but it’s not.  Good defense will not allow opposing teams to repeatedly “get lucky” from three.  

This is the last post I’m going to make in this thread, because the discussion annoys me, and no one is going to change their minds. 

This is the kind of thing I don't expect to see on this board. I feel like people here are pretty open minded, and are actually open to changing their opinions when presented with differing evidence. At least more than most places on the internet. That's why I post on this board and really nowhere else.

Pomeroy's conclusion about opponent 3 point percentage is counter-intuitive, but true. I've played basketball my whole life, I'm not some math nerd sitting in the basement. This isn't about reducing basketball to a numbers game. It's about improving our understanding of the game we love. That's why almost every coach uses analytics to some extent.

I'll offer up a friendly wager. IU's opponents are currently over 50% from three. I'll bet whatever you want that our opponents the rest of the year shoot a combined percentage of less than 40% from three. Should be an easy bet for you to win if you're right about our three point defense being so terrible. What do you say?

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4 minutes ago, Shooter said:

This is the kind of thing I don't expect to see on this board. I feel like people here are pretty open minded, and are actually open to changing their opinions when presented with differing evidence. At least more than most places on the internet. That's why I post on this board and really nowhere else.

Pomeroy's conclusion about opponent 3 point percentage is counter-intuitive, but true. I've played basketball my whole life, I'm not some math nerd sitting in the basement. This isn't about reducing basketball to a numbers game. It's about improving our understanding of the game we love. That's why almost every coach uses analytics to some extent.

I'll offer up a friendly wager. IU's opponents are currently over 50% from three. I'll bet whatever you want that our opponents the rest of the year shoot a combined percentage of less than 40% from three. Should be an easy bet for you to win if you're right about our three point defense being so terrible. What do you say?

You're spot on about our little community. I love how, for the most part all of us, can look at evidence and change our opinions. It makes for MUCH better discussions. 

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12 hours ago, Shooter said:

This is the kind of thing I don't expect to see on this board. I feel like people here are pretty open minded, and are actually open to changing their opinions when presented with differing evidence. At least more than most places on the internet. That's why I post on this board and really nowhere else.

Pomeroy's conclusion about opponent 3 point percentage is counter-intuitive, but true. I've played basketball my whole life, I'm not some math nerd sitting in the basement. This isn't about reducing basketball to a numbers game. It's about improving our understanding of the game we love. That's why almost every coach uses analytics to some extent.

I'll offer up a friendly wager. IU's opponents are currently over 50% from three. I'll bet whatever you want that our opponents the rest of the year shoot a combined percentage of less than 40% from three. Should be an easy bet for you to win if you're right about our three point defense being so terrible. What do you say?

Here's why our 3-point defense is terrible, and you're right of course that it's not because opponents have a high three-point shooting percentage:  Pomeroy has another metric, 3PA/FGA, basically what percentage of field goal attempts are three-pointers.  A good three-point defense limits the number of three-point attempts the opponent takes.  A larger sample size would be better, because some of the reason for a high 3PA/FGA percentage at this stage could be that you've played three teams whose style is to take three-pointers at every possible opportunity, no matter how poor a shot it is (not likely in this case given...opponents' high three point shooting percentage).  But bearing that in mind, IU's defensive 3PA/FGA is 45.8, which is ranked 307th of 351.  D-1 average is 37.1.  And Archie has referred in remarks this week to how many of the made three-pointers should not have been able to have even been taken.  Sorry if you've already talked about this; I've not read through the whole thread.

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^^ Really no question (in my mind) at this point -- at this point -- that our 3-point D has been, well, bad. But the team is adjusting to CAM's pack line D / defensive sets and an entirely different style of play. Barring injuries to key players, I will be shocked if our 3-point D does not improve, and significantly, over the course of the season. Prognostications about how bad we are are defensively, at this early stage, are way early, imo.

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4 hours ago, Hoosierhoopster said:

^^ Really no question (in my mind) at this point -- at this point -- that our 3-point D has been, well, bad. But the team is adjusting to CAM's pack line D / defensive sets and an entirely different style of play. Barring injuries to key players, I will be shocked if our 3-point D does not improve, and significantly, over the course of the season. Prognostications about how bad we are are defensively, at this early stage, are way early, imo.

I agree here. I think we actually play some really good defense. We just struggle to maintain it for a full shot clock. Its really frustrating to see our guys hounding the ball handler, making the other team uncomfortable, and then someone gets lost and they get an open shot. Maybe my glasses are crimson colored, but I think we play good on-ball defense. I feel as if we're realllly close. Just have to clean up some mental lapses. I think the defensive lapses will be fixed much quicker than some of the offensive ones.  But the stretch from November 16-November 28 is the time to do so.

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4 hours ago, BoomBaby said:

Here's why our 3-point defense is terrible, and you're right of course that it's not because opponents have a high three-point shooting percentage:  Pomeroy has another metric, 3PA/FGA, basically what percentage of field goal attempts are three-pointers.  A good three-point defense limits the number of three-point attempts the opponent takes.  A larger sample size would be better, because some of the reason for a high 3PA/FGA percentage at this stage could be that you've played three teams whose style is to take three-pointers at every possible opportunity, no matter how poor a shot it is (not likely in this case given...opponents' high three point shooting percentage).  But bearing that in mind, IU's defensive 3PA/FGA is 45.8, which is ranked 307th of 351.  D-1 average is 37.1.  And Archie has referred in remarks this week to how many of the made three-pointers should not have been able to have even been taken.  Sorry if you've already talked about this; I've not read through the whole thread.

I completely agree with you. Smart teams run their offense to get layups and open threes. We're not doing a good job of taking those things away.

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