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B1G Teams in NCAA (early projection)

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31 minutes ago, IU Scott said:

Question about the quad wins, is it when you beat them or is their net ranking at the end of the year.

At the end I believe.  That's why it's so important that the teams you've played do well.   Take Purdue for instance.  That Virginia win seemed huge at the time.  But if you look at it now it wasn't.  Same with Michigan's early win over UNC.  

Go Hoosiers!!!

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8 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

Only 2 Big Ten teams have fewer overall losses than IU's 8.

 

The ranking systems favor teams that have tougher non-conference schedules.  IU fans may not like it, but that’s the way it is.  The way IU set up its non-conference schedule this season isn’t sustainable going forward.

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8 minutes ago, FW_Hoosier said:

The ranking systems favor teams that have tougher non-conference schedules.  IU fans may not like it, but that’s the way it is.  The way IU set up its non-conference schedule this season isn’t sustainable going forward.

Our non-conference schedule is stronger than both Illinois and Texas Tech.  We have the same record as them.  We have as many, or more, Quad 1 wins as they do,  Yet, we are well behind them in NET.  I don't think SOS is as big a factor as it's made out to be.  

To me, it's just ridiculous that talking heads on tv go on and on about a 17-8 Iowa team having a great year, while a 16-8 IU team, with a head to head victory over Iowa, has work to do to stay in the NCAA field.  

All of these formulas have a bias of some sort.  IU just happens to be stuck with the donkey-end of the bias this year.  I don't think it will keep us out of the tourney, but it will almost certainly effect our seed.

 

Edited by 5fouls

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CBS does a good job of laying everything out in an easy to understand format.  I want someone to look at this, compare the resumes of Texas Tech and IU and explain how TT has a NET rating that is 16th, while IU is 58th. 

  • It's not SOS
  • It's not Quad 1 wins
  • It's not bad losses

So 'splain to to me please!

 https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/

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10 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

CBS does a good job of laying everything out in an easy to understand format.  I want someone to look at this, compare the resumes of Texas Tech and IU and explain how TT has a NET rating that is 16th, while IU is 58th. 

  • It's not SOS
  • It's not Quad 1 wins
  • It's not bad losses

So 'splain to to me please!

 https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/

this is what happens when you let computers dictate ratings

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19 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

CBS does a good job of laying everything out in an easy to understand format.  I want someone to look at this, compare the resumes of Texas Tech and IU and explain how TT has a NET rating that is 16th, while IU is 58th. 

  • It's not SOS
  • It's not Quad 1 wins
  • It's not bad losses

So 'splain to to me please!

 https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/

Net uses scoring margin.  We have gotten blown out 3 times on the road and once at home in the most important game in years.  

Tt also has #6 d eff.  

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2 minutes ago, NotIThatLives said:

Net uses scoring margin.  We have gotten blown out 3 times on the road and once at home in the most important game in years.  

Tt also has #6 d eff.  

That may be. The "cupcake" teams IU beat, they barely scraped by instead of blowing them out......

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23 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

CBS does a good job of laying everything out in an easy to understand format.  I want someone to look at this, compare the resumes of Texas Tech and IU and explain how TT has a NET rating that is 16th, while IU is 58th. 

  • It's not SOS
  • It's not Quad 1 wins
  • It's not bad losses

So 'splain to to me please!

 https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/

First, the NET is in its second year. It has some major flaws....much like KenPom.

IMO, Looking at Texas Tech vs IU and why there is such a difference would be that NET HEAVILY rewards road/neutral wins.

TT has neutral road wins vs Louisville, Kansas State, and Texas. 

IU has UCONN, Notre Dame, and Nebraska.

 

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3 minutes ago, NotIThatLives said:

Net uses scoring margin.  We have gotten blown out 3 times on the road and once at home in the most important game in years.  

Tt also has #6 d eff.  

NET caps at 10 point margin.

If you are talking KenPom....yes, scoring margin is a problem.

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1 minute ago, JugRox said:

First, the NET is in its second year. It has some major flaws....much like KenPom.

IMO, Looking at Texas Tech vs IU and why there is such a difference would be that NET HEAVILY rewards road/neutral wins.

TT has neutral road wins vs Louisville, Kansas State, and Texas. 

IU has UCONN, Notre Dame, and Nebraska.

 

KSU and UT are terrible as well so besides the UL win where is the difference.  Also I don't think they should use margin of victory in any kind of rating because a win is a win and a loss is a loss

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1 minute ago, JugRox said:

NET caps at 10 point margin.

If you are talking KenPom....yes, scoring margin is a problem.

I am just going off of the ncaa website that said net factors scoring margin.  Didn't know it was capped.  

Think that you hit the nail on the head with the road and neutral wins.  Our best win is like 53rd and theirs is Louisville 

They also have a w over West Virginia.  

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19 minutes ago, IU Scott said:

this is what happens when you let computers dictate ratings

"Hey you computers! Get off my 01001100 01100001 01110111 01101110!"

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10 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

CBS does a good job of laying everything out in an easy to understand format.  I want someone to look at this, compare the resumes of Texas Tech and IU and explain how TT has a NET rating that is 16th, while IU is 58th. 

  • It's not SOS
  • It's not Quad 1 wins
  • It's not bad losses

So 'splain to to me please!

 https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/

You’re not wrong when looking solely at Quadrant wins/losses.  TTU is 3-7 in Quad 1 games, 3-1 in Quad 2 games, 2-0 in Quad 3 games, and 8-0 in Quad 4 games.  IU is 4-7, 2-1, 4-0, and 6-0, respectively.

Looking at the schedules a little closer, the NET must put a disproportionate amount of weight on away/neutral court games and margin of victory/defeat. TTU’s Quad 1 wins are over #7 Louisville by 13 at a neutral site, #10 WVU at home by 8, and #70 Texas at Texas by 5.  IU’s are over #11 MSU by 4, #14 FSU by 16, #23 OSU by 12, and #30 Iowa by 12, all at home.

TTU losses are to #30 Iowa by 11 on a neutral court, #19 Creighton by 7 on a neutral court, #66 DePaul by 5 on the road, #3 Baylor by 5 at home, #10 WVU by 12 on the road, #93 TCU by 11 on the road, #24 UK by 2 at home, and #4 KU by 3 on the road.  IU’s losses are to #32 Wisconsin by 20 on the road, #43 Arkansas by 7 at home, #8 Maryland by 16 on the road, #32 Rutgers by 9 on the road, #8 Maryland by 1 at home, #18 PSU by 15 on the road, #23 OSU by 11 on the road, and #29 Purdue by 12 at home.

But I agree with you that this shouldn’t justify the huge disparity.  NET just seems to put a big emphasis on games away from home, where IU hasn’t had success. And the margin of victory/defeat is also obviously having an effect, with IU winning a lot of close games at home and getting blown out on the road.

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1 minute ago, IU Scott said:

KSU and UT are terrible as well so besides the UL win where is the difference.  Also I don't think they should use margin of victory in any kind of rating because a win is a win and a loss is a loss

You don't think margin of victory tells a story of how competitive a game was?

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Just now, IUFLA said:

"Hey you computers! Get off my 01001100 01100001 01110111 01101110!"

For me sports were way more entertaining when actual humans made the decisions and not let everything be dictated on a computer program.  The game is played by humans and watched by humans so why not let humans determine rankings.

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1 minute ago, NotIThatLives said:

You don't think margin of victory tells a story of how competitive a game was?

Maybe for that game but it does not tell me how good or bad a team is over all.  Our 94 team lost at Minnesota by 50 points yet that team still made the sweet 16

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4 minutes ago, NotIThatLives said:

You don't think margin of victory tells a story of how competitive a game was?

You can easily game the system and that was a big reason the old RPI system was flawed.

There is 1:30 min to go in the game, you are up 8. Do you try to get as many shots up as possible to increase the lead? Or work clock?

That's when KenPom and all his "efficency" metrics became popular.

Edited by JugRox
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Just now, JugRox said:

You can easily game the system and that was a big reason the old RPI system was flawed.

There is 1:30 min to go in the game, you are up 8. Do you try to get as many shots up as possible to increase the lead? Or work clock?

Maybe that what we were doing against Maryland and it back fired LOL!

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4 minutes ago, IU Scott said:

Maybe for that game but it does not tell me how good or bad a team is over all.  Our 94 team lost at Minnesota by 50 points yet that team still made the sweet 16

If a team plays the number 1 team in the nation, on the road, to a 3 point game, and loses, that tells a story.  

If a team plays and the beats an unranked team at home by 3, that tells a story.  

You picking extreme outliers is your thing, I get it, but it usually isn't based on thousands of others that go against your examples.   

Edited by NotIThatLives
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3 minutes ago, NotIThatLives said:

If a team plays the number 1 team in the nation, on the road, to a 3 point game, and loses, that tells a story.  

If a team plays the beats an unranked team at home by 3, that tells a story.  

You picking extreme outliers is your thing, I get it, but it usually isn't based on thousands of others that go against your examples.   

What if the unranked team at home was being beat by 16 with 3 mins to go,  and the unranked team went off on the 3 point line for the last 3 mins?

You want to reward them for 3 mins of play?

The final score tells a part of the story, not the whole story.

KenPom doesn't account for wins or losses in anyway.

Edited by JugRox
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16 minutes ago, FW_Hoosier said:

You’re not wrong when looking solely at Quadrant wins/losses.  TTU is 3-7 in Quad 1 games, 3-1 in Quad 2 games, 2-0 in Quad 3 games, and 8-0 in Quad 4 games.  IU is 4-7, 2-1, 4-0, and 6-0, respectively.

Looking at the schedules a little closer, the NET must put a disproportionate amount of weight on away/neutral court games and margin of victory/defeat. TTU’s Quad 1 wins are over #7 Louisville by 13 at a neutral site, #10 WVU at home by 8, and #70 Texas at Texas by 5.  IU’s are over #11 MSU by 4, #14 FSU by 16, #23 OSU by 12, and #30 Iowa by 12, all at home.

TTU losses are to #30 Iowa by 11 on a neutral court, #19 Creighton by 7 on a neutral court, #66 DePaul by 5 on the road, #3 Baylor by 5 at home, #10 WVU by 12 on the road, #93 TCU by 11 on the road, #24 UK by 2 at home, and #4 KU by 3 on the road.  IU’s losses are to #32 Wisconsin by 20 on the road, #43 Arkansas by 7 at home, #8 Maryland by 16 on the road, #32 Rutgers by 9 on the road, #8 Maryland by 1 at home, #18 PSU by 15 on the road, #23 OSU by 11 on the road, and #29 Purdue by 12 at home.

But I agree with you that this shouldn’t justify the huge disparity.  NET just seems to put a big emphasis on games away from home, where IU hasn’t had success. And the margin of victory/defeat is also obviously having an effect, with IU winning a lot of close games at home and getting blown out on the road.

Good post.  Road wins and margin of victory/loss both play a big part in the NET.   As does your past opponents wins and losses.   Texas Tech losing close ones at home to UK and Baylor is good compared to our 3 home losses to Ark, MD and PU.  

The first Net rankings this year had TT at 34 and IU at 36.  Pretty dang close.  What dropped us was the 4 game skid.  Had we won the MD and PU games we'd most likely be top 30.  

Go Hoosiers!!!

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I think this year, with how wide open the Big Ten and, really, the entire NCAA is, we are seeing just how far stats can take us (hint: not very far).

There's some obvious shortcomings in several of these advanced statistical rankings, and, at the end of the day, whether you win by 50 or lose by 100, a win is a win, and a loss is a loss, and right now, IU has 16 in the win column.

IU: 16-8, 58 in NET ranking

Minnesota: 12-11, 40 in NET ranking

Clear example of how stats can only tell you so much.

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Chew on this for a moment.  IU's loss to Purdue is considered a Quad 1 loss for IU because the Boilers are #29 in the NET.  Now, assume IU had beaten Purdue instead.  Would it be a Quad 1 win?  No, it would not.  With a loss to IU, there is no way Purdue stays in the Top 30 of the Net, which is the requirement for IU to get credit for a Quad 1 win. 

So, in essence, forget the actual score.  Forget who won or lost.  The game became more important in the overall scheme of things because Purdue won instead of IU.  That's illogical if you ask me.    The season is 31 games long for a reason.  Teams have highs and teams have lows.  Good games and bad games.  IU had a low at the same time where Purdue had a relative high.  Does who won matter?  Sure, it does.  But, it should not matter any more than IU's loss at home to Maryland.  But, because of the arbitrary cutoff assigned to the NET ratings, it does.  

Can you imagine if they used NET ratings back in '81 when IU won the championship?  That loss to Pan American would have destroyed IU's resume and likely affected their tournament seed.  But, with their run through the tournament, IU clearly showed they were the best team in the country, despite losing to Pan American.  

Edited by 5fouls

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