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Reacher

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3 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

If true, that changes my position.  

It's a big reason I believe we will never hit the numbers they are looking for.  A very large portion believe its pointless if you can still get, carry, and be contagious.   I currently fall in that group...  If I lived in a very heavy hit area I may think differently.  I believe Lostin76 said quite a few medical workers are now declining to tale the shot... if they are, good luck getting a significant number of Midwest and Southern states to buy in 

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15 minutes ago, hoosier_exotics said:

It's a big reason I believe we will never hit the numbers they are looking for.  A very large portion believe its pointless if you can still get, carry, and be contagious.   I currently fall in that group...  If I lived in a very heavy hit area I may think differently.  I believe Lostin76 said quite a few medical workers are now declining to tale the shot... if they are, good luck getting a significant number of Midwest and Southern states to buy in 

Well, if we don't get vaccinated and develop herd immunity, this thread will still be going strong 5 years from now and we will be in a worldwide financial depression to rival 1929.

Edited by 5fouls
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The difficulty in developing a vaccine for a respiratory virus is, our respiratory system is exposed to the environment.  Which makes it difficult, almost impossible to target a specific virus. 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7149605/

The respiratory system is considered and external system. Unlike something like polio where you are infected by ingesting fecal matter. 

Respiratory viruses are a pain in the ass. 

Edited by mrflynn03
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1 minute ago, 5fouls said:

Well, if we don't get c=vaccinated and develop her immunity, this thread will still be going strong 5 years from now and we will be in a worldwide financial depression to rival 1929.

The only way we hit 75-85% vaccinated is if it is forced. Then that will open up a whole new set of problems...  my guess is you get about as many vaccinated as will take it, then open everything back up...  if the vaccine is a high risk to the old and weak,  they won't take it.  People will go see their parents and grandparents,  because who wants to live the last year or two of your life alone.   I only know 3-4 people who have taken it, and they are all pretty young.  My 81 yr old mother in law retired nurse is more likely to give it to us, than we are to her. Her and her friends go wherever they feel like.. 

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40 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

Well, if we don't get vaccinated and develop herd immunity, this thread will still be going strong 5 years from now and we will be in a worldwide financial depression to rival 1929.

I'm going to have to disagree with this. The Spanish Flu which was the worst in modern history lasted roughly 2 to 2.5 years and killed 6.5% of the US population.  We arent even close to that. 

A vaccine is not going to be a cure. Mother nature will takes its course as it as always has. If 2.2 million Americans end up dying from this then I will eat my dirty shoe. 

The depression may still happen though.

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On 1/8/2021 at 12:29 PM, Leathernecks said:

If we were going at a faster rate, I would say they should hold onto the 2nd dose, but we've only given 5.9 million shots of the 21.4 million distributed.  If they held back 6 million to give a 2nd dose to everybody who has already had the first shot, we'd still have over 9 million doses to give out.  At the rate we're going, it seems like we're getting more doses in than we're getting people vaccinated, so I feel like we'd be alright.

Curious where this was at 1 week later.

We're now at roughly 12.3 million shots and 31.2 vaccines distributed.  In the last week there's been 6.4 million shots and 9.8 million doses distributed.

I am kind of curious how those numbers are counted.  It didn't when I checked last week, but it now says the 12.3 million only counts the first dose.  So I'm assuming that means there have been more than 12.3 of the 31.2 million doses distributed?  Not sure how the 2nd dose factors into all of that.

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20 minutes ago, Leathernecks said:

Curious where this was at 1 week later.

We're now at roughly 12.3 million shots and 31.2 vaccines distributed.  In the last week there's been 6.4 million shots and 9.8 million doses distributed.

I am kind of curious how those numbers are counted.  It didn't when I checked last week, but it now says the 12.3 million only counts the first dose.  So I'm assuming that means there have been more than 12.3 of the 31.2 million doses distributed?  Not sure how the 2nd dose factors into all of that.

I wont say where, but I'm likely getting a job Starting Feb 1 working in QC on the Moderna and Johnson and Johnson vaccines.  This place is already contracted to produce 2/3rds of the Moderna vaccine.

Is building a brand new facility to produce the J&J vaccine.

From what I understand, it's a production and distribution issue. We just dont have the facilities to produce a billion+ doses yet.

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15 hours ago, hoosier_exotics said:

The more I think about this, the more I believe there has to be more to the story.  Why haven't we heard about other instances like this throughout the world?  My guess is that there may have been something wrong with the way the vaccine was administered.  It was the Pfizer vaccine, which has to be temperature controlled.  Maybe it was mishandled along the way.  

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Update from my county in FL

Thousands of seniors waiting for vaccine

As of Tuesday, 95,600 seniors have joined Manatee County’s recently launched COVID-19 Vaccine Standby Pool in hopes of receiving an extra layer of protection against the novel coronavirus.

But, after 5,457 people were vaccinated during the first two weeks of the county’s drive-thru program, distribution of the vaccine has come to a standstill as the county awaited additional supplies.

“We’ve been grateful to receive the doses we’ve received in Manatee County but at this time there’s not enough supply of the vaccine to meet the extremely high number of people wanting to be vaccinated,” County Administrator Cheri Coryea said in a prepared statement on Monday. “We’ll continue to work with our state and federal officials to expedite the shipment of vaccines to Manatee County in order to minimize the wait for those seniors who want to be vaccinated in our community.”

The vaccine is provided free of charge for people 65 and over, and no proof of county residency or U.S. citizenship is required in accordance with state guidelines.

Florida is experiencing vaccine "tourism"

Gov. Ron DeSantis acknowledges people from around the world are coming to Florida for what he calls "vaccine tourism" and he said Tuesday it's not going to be allowed.

"We have people from all over the world and the country calling here to see and we’re not doing that, we’re not doing it for tourists and we’re not doing it for interlopers," said DeSantis.

Indeed, you do not have to show proof of residency to get a vaccine in Florida, just that you are over 65. When asked last month about snowbirds getting the vaccine, Palm Beach County Health Department Director Dr. Alina Alonso said: “They have the same access. It doesn’t matter where you’re coming from -- we want to vaccinate everybody."

The latest numbers from the state show out of 849,317 vaccines given, more than 3% --31,517 -- were to people from outside of Florida.

DeSantis and other officials point out many snowbirds actually live in Florida half of the year. What he says he is cracking down on is people flying in just to get the vaccine.

 

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A few thoughts responding to some of the previous posts...

I hear FL leads the country with 10% of its seniors vaccinated.

LA is the new hot spot. LA Times estimating 1/3 have already had it. If so, that greatly lessens the amount needed to get vaccinated to reach herd immunity. 

My understanding is that it is rare for asymptomatic people to pass it on. That is why schools are not much of an issue. If a vaccine increases those #s, it should still cut down the spread. @5fouls linked an article predicting it will end up like the common cold in a few years. And what's the point of kids only to school for 1/2 days or 2 days a week? If Mom sends her kid to school with Covid, others are still going to get it.

Around me, healthcare workers are still getting vaccinated. I'm hearing of abuses where family members of healthcare workers are being listed as "working in the office" to get shots. I think after 3-4 weeks of prioritizing healthcare, they need to move the seniors up in line. That might incentivize more of the health care workers to get theirs.  I know of a lady in a nursing home in suburban Cook Co that isn't scheduled for her shot until Feb 1. My parents, in their 80s, with health issues, don't anticipate getting theirs for at least another month.  To me, that is wrong. 

More info coming out showing lockdowns don't work and the damage might be 10x worse than the virus itself.

A peer reviewed international study https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/eci.13484 showed-

"Conclusions

While small benefits cannot be excluded, we do not find significant benefits on case growth of more restrictive NPIs. Similar reductions in case growth may be achievable with less restrictive interventions."

Yet what are people talking about in LA- more lockdowns. Don't see where closing an outdoor gym- already at limited capacity- is going to help much more. 

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Vaccinations in the U.S. began Dec. 14 with health-care workers, and so far 14.3 million shots have been given, according to a state-by-state tally by Bloomberg and data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. In the last week, an average of 898,410 doses per day were administered.

The initial round of shots through early January has been doled out primarily through hospitals and other institutional health-care settings. The next phase will draw more on pharmacies and health clinics—places where vaccines are more traditionally administered—and will broaden the pool of people eligible to get the shots. Some states are turning sport stadiums and theme parks into mass vaccination centers. (Bloomberg)

Last week, CVS and Walgreen both said that they can each administer 20-25 million vaccines per month. Quick superficial math: 330M people minus 70M under 16 = 260M. Assume 20% refuse vaccination = 210M to be vaccinated minus 14M already done = 195M x 2 doses = 390M vaccines to be administered. CVS/Walgreen could do it under 10 months on their own.

Given vaccine availability, more than 50% of Americans could be vaccinated by the summer.

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38 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

In a few years, it will be interesting to see studies that look back on different measures countries took.  It is so tough to do on the fly because things are constantly changing, and we're still in the middle of things.  I would guess within a couple years we'll have decent data on the effectiveness of lockdowns, mask wearing, and other measures countries took.  There should be some really interesting studies done in the next few years.

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State reporting numbers different than the county provided.

Indiana reports new high for Evansville COVID-19 deaths, health officials following up | Eyewitness News (WEHT/WTVW) (tristatehomepage.com)

INDIANAPOLIS (WEHT) – The State of Indiana reported a single-day record for coronavirus deaths in Vanderburgh County with 23. The previous one-day high was 14.

According to the state, 236 people have now died from COVID-19 in the Evansville area. County health department officials said they are checking with the state to get detailed information on why the latest report is so high. A spokesman said the state databases are showing different numbers.

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Covid-19 antibody treatments are plentiful, but still sitting on the shelf - CNN

Giving someone these treatments is not as simple as swallowing a pill. Because they are infectious, patients undergoing this treatment need to be kept separate from others. A nurse in full protective gear needs to administer the treatment for about an hour and then monitor the patient for another.
 
"It does prevent hospitalizations, but the logistics of it have been daunting and of course staffing with nurses in our current national health crisis has its own struggle as well," McAuley said.
 
Piedmont's program now treats about 250 Covid-19 patients a week, but around the country, health officials have said the treatments haven't been used nearly enough in the months they've been available.
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On 1/21/2021 at 6:46 AM, dbmhoosier said:

Beginning to loosen restrictions around me effective today (suburban Chicago).

Also in Washington DC- https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/dc-mayor-bowser-confirms-indoor-bar-and-restaurant-service-to-resume-at-25-25-capacity-starting-jan-22/ar-BB1cYnIR

 

On the treatment front- more good news- https://www.wsj.com/articles/lilly-antibody-drug-prevents-covid-19-in-nursing-homes-study-finds-11611234000?mod=hp_lead_pos7

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5 hours ago, Reacher said:

This is the miracle we've all been waiting on, isn't it? I love science. 

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