Coronavirus

[jv1972iu]

The virus is laughing at this "discussion" .  It's alive and well.  It doesn't care about trends.

[5fouls]

4 minutes ago, Hoosierhoopster said:

The link immediately above the state of Texas is Harris County and the surrounding counties of Houston. I don't know why you want to argue this. I really don't. It's like you want to dig your head in the sand. 

Regardless, instead of just saying your wrong (though I think you pretty clearly are) that's not my point. Again, I hope you don't actually think COVID will just happily go down/away when there's obviously no vaccine or remedy yet, and people go back to social gathering. If you do, I have a bridge to sell you in New York. But I trust you don't, because that would be complete nonsense. 

I edited my comment to address the first graph.

And, c'mon.  Can we have a good discussion/debate without getting condescending?  I'm not trying to change your mind, and I'm not saying Covid is going away.  I do think it is trending down, albeit much slower than I expected it would when summer hit.  And, yes, masks, social distancing, etc. contributed a lot to those numbers going down.  

[mrflynn03]

Coronavirus will likely endemic in the human population.  

Click here

[5fouls]

2 minutes ago, jv1972iu said:

The virus is laughing at this "discussion" .  It's alive and well.  It doesn't care about trends.

No.  The virus is laughing at China's 'trends', and Russia's overall numbers, and people that have Covid but die of late stage inoperable cancer getting counted as a Covid death.  Those are things that the virus laughs at.  

[5fouls]

Question for the board, because I don't know.  @IU Scott may know since he had the virus.  How does someone that recovers from the virus drop off the 'Active Case' list?  For example, if I get the virus, become asymptomatic after 2-3 weeks, what do I need to do to drop off the list?  I have to do something, don't I?  If I simply sit and home and not tell anyone, logic would tell me that I would be on the list indefinitely.  5 years from now, would I still be an active case?

My basis for the question is whether that could be a factor in why active cases continue to go up even though new cases are going down.  That's a significant distinction whether we want to admit it or not.   

[jv1972iu]

8 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

No.  The virus is laughing at China's 'trends', and Russia's overall numbers, and people that have Covid but die of late stage inoperable cancer getting counted as a Covid death.  Those are things that the virus laughs at.  

Okay.    😁

[5fouls]

When 'Total Cases' is reported as an indicator of where we stand today with Coronavirus, turn the other way.  That number is meaningless when it comes to seeing where we are at on this particular date.  The reason?  Just as I will never be 18 years of age again (or 25, or 37, or 48), the total number of cases for a particular country, state, county, etc. will never go down.  It will continue to go up until the end of time.  You want to look at things in this order:

• Number of Daily Deaths (some inflation in numbers, but the best measure of the current danger of the disease)
• Daily New Cases (dependent on testing and there is no testing consistency)
• Daily Number of Recoveries (as I questioned in post above, is the reporting on this accurate)
• Active Cases (totally dependent on accurate reporting of three items above it)
• Do you see the same old guy at the grocery 6 weeks in a row without a mask
• A bunch of other things
• A bunch more things
• The flip of a coin
• Total Cases

[IU Scott]

15 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

Question for the board, because I don't know.  @IU Scott may know since he had the virus.  How does someone that recovers from the virus drop off the 'Active Case' list?  For example, if I get the virus, become asymptomatic after 2-3 weeks, what do I need to do to drop off the list?  I have to do something, don't I?  If I simply sit and home and not tell anyone, logic would tell me that I would be on the list indefinitely.  5 years from now, would I still be an active case?

My basis for the question is whether that could be a factor in why active cases continue to go up even though new cases are going down.  That's a significant distinction whether we want to admit it or not.   

Could not tell you but I have not retested.  I also was getting a phone call one a week from our health department but have not heard from them the last two weeks.

[5fouls]

2 minutes ago, IU Scott said:

Could not tell you but I have not retested.  I also was getting a phone call one a week from our health department but have not heard from them the last two weeks.

So, you still may be considered an 'Active' case unless they have a specific process to drop you off the list after a certain amount of time even though you have not been retested.  But, since you were not specifically told you were no longer going to be monitored, it begs the question as to how accurate the 'active' case number is.

[rd726]

 I haven’t called a positive test in quite awhile. Go from calling 30-45 a day to this.  Policies at the hospital getting less strict every day too. It doesn’t seem like we are handing out tests like candy anymore either so I guess take that for whatever it is. 

  

[Reacher]

1 hour ago, Hoosierhoopster said:

Fouls, just a question. Why are you arguing, vociferously, that there isn't any kind of "spike" (however you want to define it), when things are opening back up, and nothing has changed? I'm not trying to be argumentative here (though admittedly, it's in my nature). I really don't get it. You know nothing has changed.

There is no vaccine. There is absolutely nothing -- nada, nothing, o, however you want to define it -- to indicate COVID has gone away. I mean, no one will say otherwise, because it's obvious fact. Rather, by ALL accounts, the social distancing, mask wearing etc. has reduced what otherwise would've been a worse situation.

But now things are opening back up, a whole bunch of people just aren't wearing masks, people are starting to gather in groups again (without getting into the protests). Of course the rate of COVID spread is going to go back up. Why would you think otherwise, or, really, why would you argue against any kind of spike? I don't get it.

Edit -- so as I was posting this you posted your point is to lambaste the media, for what you believe to be "flaming." OK. I disagree with your take (fwiw), but I still don't get the need to argue against any kind of spike when I think clearly cases are going to increase again until a vaccine is developed or something else happens to change the dynamic of this virus. It seems really counterproductive to me.

I want to add that there are factors that may make COVID go away, or the slow the spread,  before a vaccine.  I posted this on page 115-

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-virus-idUSKBN2370OQ

"The new coronavirus is losing its potency and has become much less lethal, a senior Italian doctor said on Sunday."

In addition, weather , herd immunity, social behavior and countless other factors MAY result in a lessening over time.

We are clearly past the peak. I think its great that @5fouls tracks it. He is still learning the nuances of it and teaching us by extension. Wouldn't surprise me if a number of people reporting on it truly don't understand what they are reporting. 

[5fouls]

12 minutes ago, rd726 said:

 I haven’t called a positive test in quite awhile. Go from calling 30-45 a day to this.  Policies at the hospital getting less strict every day too. It doesn’t seem like we are handing out tests like candy anymore either so I guess take that for whatever it is. 

  

Any insight into how someone that tests positive drops off the 'Active Case' list (other than dying)?

Edited June 2, 2020 by 5fouls

[jv1972iu]

12 minutes ago, Reacher said:

I want to add that there are factors that may make COVID go away, or the slow the spread,  before a vaccine.  I posted this on page 115-

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-virus-idUSKBN2370OQ

"The new coronavirus is losing its potency and has become much less lethal, a senior Italian doctor said on Sunday."

In addition, weather , herd immunity, social behavior and countless other factors MAY result in a lessening over time.

We are clearly past the peak. I think its great that @5fouls tracks it. He is still learning the nuances of it and teaching us by extension. Wouldn't surprise me if a number of people reporting on it truly don't understand what they are reporting. 

Dr. Zangrillo's comments received push back from WHO Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove and other health officials.  He's one guy at one hospital.  I hope he's right but...just saying.  Sorry...don't have the techie know how to link the article.  Working on my kindle.  😊   I'm an oldster.

Edited June 2, 2020 by jv1972iu

[Reacher]

2 minutes ago, jv1972iu said:

Dr. Zangrillo's comments received push back from WHO Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove and other health officials.  He's one guy at one hospital.  I hope he's right but...just saying.

Completely understand. We'll find out eventually.

[Reacher]

5 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

Any insight into how someone that tests positive drops off the 'Active Case' list (other than dying)?

I'd imagine at some point they move into a Recovered Cases status. Don't know when or how.

[5fouls]

I think an important thing here is to proceed with caution, but to not automatically dismiss positive news.  Some positive news will not live up to what's expected, but other positive news is truly positive news.  Whatever the reason, I do think coronavirus has brought out the pessimist in a lot of people.  While understandable, it is also not always productive.

[Seeking6]

8 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

I think an important thing here is to proceed with caution, but to not automatically dismiss positive news.  Some positive news will not live up to what's expected, but other positive news is truly positive news.  Whatever the reason, I do think coronavirus has brought out the pessimist in a lot of people.  While understandable, it is also not always productive.

Yep. I live with a personal motto....be real careful of people who pedal cynicism as wisdom.

 

[rd726]

18 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

Any insight into how someone that tests positive drops off the 'Active Case' list (other than dying)?

It’s usually once their repeat PCR test  comes back negative or they get the antibody test that comes back negative for IgM antibody. The positive IgM would mean they could have CURRENT “infection”. Positive IgG basically  means they had it and now have made antibodies against it.

  At least that is they way I have understood everything at work for how they have characterized as an “active” case.

 

  

[rd726]

 So I say that (no positives) and now I’ll probably have some tonight.  Getting ready to head there now....so we’ll see. 

Edited June 2, 2020 by rd726

[5fouls]

32 minutes ago, rd726 said:

It’s usually once their repeat PCR test  comes back negative or they get the antibody test that comes back negative for IgM antibody. The positive IgM would mean they could have CURRENT “infection”. Positive IgG basically  means they had it and now have made antibodies against it.

  At least that is they way I have understood everything at work for how they have characterized as an “active” case.

 

  

What is the process to ensure as many people have these follow-up tests as possible?  Is there a change that some/many who test positive never have the follow-up?

[bluegrassIU]

This is the national graph. The virus is clearly still potent and dangerous.

But the graph has stayed steady or decreased even with increased testing.

Is it not fair to say there is no national spike, while also recognizing it is still a serious threat?

 

[bluegrassIU]

Here is Texas. Obviously,  if I am there I would approach it differently than I do living in Kentucky.

 

[Joe_Hoopsier]

11 minutes ago, bluegrassIU said:

This is the national graph. The virus is clearly still potent and dangerous.

But the graph has stayed steady or decreased even with increased testing.

Is it not fair to say there is no national spike, while also recognizing it is still a serious threat?

 

Starting form about 19APR, why is there a reoccurring trend of a spikes, 4-5 days after a dip? That's a non-normal distribution. Not that I would ever question data gathering/ reporting

reliability.    

[bluegrassIU]

Just now, Joe_Hoopsier said:

Starting form about 19APR, why is there a reoccurring trend of a spikes, 4-5 days after a dip? That's a non-normal distribution. Not that I would ever question data gathering/ reporting

reliability.    

You mean the Willis tower buildings stacked back to back? I swear, I see them. (Yeah. I grew up in Chicago)

 

[tdhoosier]

1 hour ago, 5fouls said:

Question for the board, because I don't know.  @IU Scott may know since he had the virus.  How does someone that recovers from the virus drop off the 'Active Case' list?  For example, if I get the virus, become asymptomatic after 2-3 weeks, what do I need to do to drop off the list?  I have to do something, don't I?  If I simply sit and home and not tell anyone, logic would tell me that I would be on the list indefinitely.  5 years from now, would I still be an active case?

My basis for the question is whether that could be a factor in why active cases continue to go up even though new cases are going down.  That's a significant distinction whether we want to admit it or not.   

Depends on the model. I posted this before, but this will take into account the ‘already infected’ and you can see how it affects the curve. It’s long but I really think you’d like it. https://ncase.me/covid-19/?fbclid=IwAR2t5JFTwvawBliKOVQ4V8cOxiw3FiD9CayyiIM_RY2ozZZaMROiBSHZEPg