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Reacher
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2 hours ago, RoadToZion said:

At our peak we had 30k + new cases a day and now we are in the 20k range. Am I missing something or am I dumb? 

Yes you’re missing something. 
The multiple measures taken — stay at home rules, business closures, restaurant take out only, masks, social distancing allowed the cases to go down / peak to go down, that was the whole point. 
 

Now those rules, as of very recently, are being relaxed.

Why are you and Fouls in denial? 
Do you honestly think the virus just decided to walk away? Poof, it’s disappearing? Come on, it obviously hasn’t been cured. 
we peaked as a result of cases that developed before all the measures were put in place. Of course it’s gone down, and of course it’s still here. 
why on Earth can’t you acknowledge that? 

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4 minutes ago, Hoosierhoopster said:

Yes you’re missing something. 
The multiple measures taken — stay at home rules, business closures, restaurant take out only, masks, social distancing allowed the cases to go down / peak to go down, that was the whole point. 
 

Now those rules, as of very recently, are being relaxed.

Why are you and Fouls in denial? 
Do you honestly think the virus just decided to walk away? Poof, it’s disappearing? Come on, it obviously hasn’t been cured. 
we peaked as a result of cases that developed before all the measures were put in place. Of course it’s gone down, and of course it’s still here. 
why on Earth can’t you acknowledge that? 

 

1 hour ago, 5fouls said:

I think an important thing here is to proceed with caution, but to not automatically dismiss positive news.  Some positive news will not live up to what's expected, but other positive news is truly positive news.  Whatever the reason, I do think coronavirus has brought out the pessimist in a lot of people.  While understandable, it is also not always productive.

 

😁

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1 hour ago, Reacher said:

I want to add that there are factors that may make COVID go away, or the slow the spread,  before a vaccine.  I posted this on page 115-

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-virus-idUSKBN2370OQ

"The new coronavirus is losing its potency and has become much less lethal, a senior Italian doctor said on Sunday."

In addition, weather , herd immunity, social behavior and countless other factors MAY result in a lessening over time.

We are clearly past the peak. I think its great that @5fouls tracks it. He is still learning the nuances of it and teaching us by extension. Wouldn't surprise me if a number of people reporting on it truly don't understand what they are reporting. 


I’m sorry it is so patently absurd and ridiculous to tout that Covid just magically is disappearing. There is zero basis for that, why search for ridiculous articles? I’m not sure what motivates you to spout this stuff — But it strikes me as veiled politics, don’t go there, don’t walk that line, we’re not going to tolerate it, don’t pull up politically focused agenda driven “studies”.

the very simple, indisputable fact, is that there is no current vaccine or cure for Covid, it hasn’t magically gone away, it was, rather, limited in its spread by measures that are now being relaxed. They’re being relaxed not because the virus is gone, but because it’s been slowed, it’s economically necessary to get the economy going again, and as we limited it’s spread, if people wear masks and practice social distancing going forward we probably won’t peak again — but that is the necessary part because, again, it’s obviously still here.

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37 minutes ago, RoadToZion said:

This was the graph I was referencing earlier in the link I sent. It clearly shows a decrease in new cases even with the increase in testing. I wasn’t trying to argue earlier HH, I was just saying on a national scale, new cases are in a decline. Still a serious matter, though. 

Cool I understand where you’re coming from better now. Yes agreed, new case tracking is still recent but also reflects the effectiveness of the measures taken to curtail the virus’s growth - as those measures get relaxed we’re starting to see increases again, as we are here in Houston.

Apologies for how confrontational my posts back come across — respect you and @Fouls as a poster and individual. 

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12 minutes ago, Hoosierhoopster said:


I’m sorry it is so patently absurd and ridiculous to tout that Covid just magically is disappearing. There is zero basis for that, why search for ridiculous articles? I’m not sure what motivates you to spout this stuff — But it strikes me as veiled politics, don’t go there, don’t walk that line, we’re not going to tolerate it, don’t pull up politically focused agenda driven “studies”.

 

I want to touch on your first paragraph.  I'm looking for positives in this thing. I want things to return to some level of normalcy.  I'm going to monitor positive trends and feel hopeful about them until there is a reason not to.  I'm not putting my head in the sand.  I want to believe that we will have high school and college sports this fall/winter.  I want to believe my daughter will get to experience her first year of high school actually at school and not at home.  I want to believe my son will get the chance to see his high school friends win another state title in basketball after getting cheated out of back to back this year.  

So, tell me, while I understand that there is still much to be concerned about, what is so wrong about feeling better when some positive news comes out.

 

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25 minutes ago, Hoosierhoopster said:


I’m sorry it is so patently absurd and ridiculous to tout that Covid just magically is disappearing. There is zero basis for that, why search for ridiculous articles? I’m not sure what motivates you to spout this stuff — But it strikes me as veiled politics, don’t go there, don’t walk that line, we’re not going to tolerate it, don’t pull up politically focused agenda driven “studies”.

the very simple, indisputable fact, is that there is no current vaccine or cure for Covid, it hasn’t magically gone away, it was, rather, limited in its spread by measures that are now being relaxed. They’re being relaxed not because the virus is gone, but because it’s been slowed, it’s economically necessary to get the economy going again, and as we limited it’s spread, if people wear masks and practice social distancing going forward we probably won’t peak again — but that is the necessary part because, again, it’s obviously still here.

I agree there is some clear agenda driven "science" in that article.

But I would also caution folks to realize virus mutate often. covid 19 is a known "fast changer".

The virus going around today can behave very differently than it did even 30 days ago.

This is part of what makes a vaccine very challenging. Scientists need to study every known mutation and adjust accordingly. 

Some changes are insignificant, actually most. But some make the virus quickly become more/less infectious and more/less potent.

It is common knowledge that some viruses mutate themselves out of being a threat before a vaccine is ever created.

It also happens where the changes causes a rapid spike in infections and death.

Not a gamble any of us should take. But I also would not so quickly chalk up improving numbers to be 100% because of social distancing, face masks etc. 

It may be the reason, it may be the natural evolution of the virus, it may be a combination.

My point is, cases and deaths can decrease naturally simply because the virus has changed.

 

One undeniable truth from that article....

“The strength the virus had two months ago is not the same strength it has today,” said Matteo Bassetti, head of the infectious diseases clinic at the San Martino hospital in the city of Genoa.

“It is clear that today the COVID-19 disease is different.”

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12 minutes ago, bluegrassIU said:

I agree there is some clear agenda driven "science" in that article.

But I would also caution folks to realize virus e often. covid 19 is a known "fast changer".

The virus going around today can behave very differently than it did even 30 days ago.

This is part of what makes a vaccine very challenging. Scientists need to study every known mutation and adjust accordingly. 

Some changes are insignificant, actually most. But some make the virus quickly become more/less infectious and more/less potent.

It is common knowledge that some viruses mutate themselves out of being a threat before a vaccine is ever created.

It also happens where the changes causes a rapid spike in infections and death.

Not a gamble any of us should take. But I also would not so quickly chalk up improving numbers to be 100% because of social didtancing, face madks etc. 

It may be the reason, it may be the natural evolution of the virus, it may be a combination.

My point is, cases and deaths can decrease naturally simply because yhe virus has changed.

 

One undeniable truth from that article....

“The strength the virus had two months ago is not the same strength it has today,” said Matteo Bassetti, head of the infectious diseases clinic at the San Martino hospital in the city of Genoa.

“It is clear that today the COVID-19 disease is different.”

What we’ve seen around the world, literally, is that the many social distancing and related measures put in place relatively quickly leveled off the virus’s growth, that was of course the intent, and it’s worked, globally. Really isn’t anyone directly disputing that (it really would be absurd).

But viruses can and do mutate over time. They don’t just disappear, but they can change. Could that be partially in play here? That’s above my pay grade. Not going to dismiss that outright, but also not going to believe in the fantasy land idea that it will just go away. I think it’s clear we should continue to wear masks, social distance, and be careful, while we wait in a vaccine. Also think we all need to get back to as normal an economy as we can get 

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2 minutes ago, Hoosierhoopster said:

What we’ve seen around the world, literally, is that the many social distancing and related measures put in place relatively quickly leveled off the virus’s growth, that was of course the intent, and it’s worked, globally. Really isn’t anyone directly disputing that (it really would be absurd).

But viruses can and do mutate over time. They don’t just disappear, but they can change. Could that be partially in play here? That’s above my pay grade. Not going to dismiss that outright, but also not going to believe in the fantasy land idea that it will just go away. I think it’s clear we should continue to wear masks, social distance, and be careful, while we wait in a vaccine. Also think we all need you get back to as normal an economy as we can get 

I do not disagree at all with anything here. As an optimist, it does provide hope.

Will it disappear on its own? Maybe, maybe not. We have to assume no, and hope yes.

It has happened before. If there is any doubt, anybody can go see why SARS died out in 2013.

It would be foolish to bank on it. But it can provide hope for somebody wanting an alternative perspective to all the doomsday we hear 24,/7.

Be smart. Plan for the worst. But hope for the best.

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42 minutes ago, Hoosierhoopster said:


I’m sorry it is so patently absurd and ridiculous to tout that Covid just magically is disappearing. There is zero basis for that, why search for ridiculous articles? I’m not sure what motivates you to spout this stuff — But it strikes me as veiled politics, don’t go there, don’t walk that line, we’re not going to tolerate it, don’t pull up politically focused agenda driven “studies”.

I have no idea what you are referring to. I reread the article and see no sign of politics. I didn't search for the article. I saw the headline and it caught my interest. This is from Italy, for crying out loud. I have no idea of the veracity or scientific methods involved. What motivates me to link an article directly related to the topic at hand? I found it interesting as I had not seen or heard that before. Thought others might be interested as well. This place would be rather lonely if no one brought anything to the table. Everyone can make their own judgement as to whether believe some or all of it.  @bluegrassIU pointed out SARS faded away (thanks for mentioning that- I had no idea). Please PM what stuff I'm spouting as I don't want to derail the topic here. 

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5 minutes ago, bluegrassIU said:

I do not disagree at all with anything here. As an optimist, it does provide hope.

Will it disappear on its own? Maybe, maybe not. We have to assume no, and hope yes.

It has happened before. If there is any doubt, anybody can go see why SARS died out in 2013.

It would be foolish to bank on it. But it can provide hope for somebody wanting an alternative perspective to all the doomsday we hear 24,/7.

Be smart. Plan for the worst. But hope for the best.

Actually with SARS they got out ahead of it and stopped it’s spread before it went global — they weren’t able to do that with Covid but early on they tried. 
I’m not a pessimist lol. I’m optimistic we’ll drive Covid down - but to get there we should (I think clearly) continue to practice social distancing while a vaccine etc is developed. As it stands right now most think we’ll see another spike in the fall.

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6 hours ago, Hoosierhoopster said:

Yes they are. There are numerous papers, sites etc. reporting increased cases including here in Houston. Do you really buy into no increased cases? Geesh.

Please post some numbers that support this. Thanks in advance. 

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Looking at this real quick like while I have a second at work (so not able to “quote”)

I’m not sure if there is a process to ensure as many people as possible have a follow up. I have seen sone people 3 or 4 tests.
I know, for awhile, they were just swabbing anyone and everyone that went to the collection areas (fairgrounds, etc) so maybe they would just do it on their own

I would wager to bet there IS a chance that some aren’t getting the follow up test to check their status. Maybe they just figure “I feel better so I must be done”. I don’t really know. There are many people who aren’t too good at listening to their provider.

Edited by rd726
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https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucejapsen/2020/06/02/fauci-modernas-phase-3-covid-19-vaccine-trial-will-include-30000-young-and-old-individuals/amp/
 

moderna moves into phase 3. And mass production will start. If the vaccine performs well in this trial for 30k people 100 million doses will be available by 2021. If not we’ll have a lot of useless vaccine on our hands. 🤞 

Edit/add: I am by no means and antivaxer, but is anybody concerned about the possibility of long term side effects of a vaccine that could potentially be cleared in 6 months. Keeping in mind that many times vaccines are studied for 5 or more years before they are used on the general population? Another thing that concerns me is will there be more pressure to clear the vaccine if 100 million doses were already made? I know we don't have much of an option; just thinking out loud. 

Edited by tdhoosier
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3 hours ago, tdhoosier said:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucejapsen/2020/06/02/fauci-modernas-phase-3-covid-19-vaccine-trial-will-include-30000-young-and-old-individuals/amp/
 

moderna moves into phase 3. And mass production will start. If the vaccine performs well in this trial for 30k people 100 million doses will be available by 2021. If not we’ll have a lot of useless vaccine on our hands. 🤞 

Edit/add: I am by no means and antivaxer, but is anybody concerned about the possibility of long term side effects of a vaccine that could potentially be cleared in 6 months. Keeping in mind that many times vaccines are studied for 5 or more years before they are used on the general population? Another thing that concerns me is will there be more pressure to clear the vaccine if 100 million doses were already made? I know we don't have much of an option; just thinking out loud. 

I think this is one of those times where society has to take a leap of faith. We simply do not have the luxury of extending restrictions that impact the economy longer than we absolutely have to.   If a vaccine works, and is available, there has to be a level of faith that side effects, if any, are mild and/or easily treatable.

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4 hours ago, tdhoosier said:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucejapsen/2020/06/02/fauci-modernas-phase-3-covid-19-vaccine-trial-will-include-30000-young-and-old-individuals/amp/
 

moderna moves into phase 3. And mass production will start. If the vaccine performs well in this trial for 30k people 100 million doses will be available by 2021. If not we’ll have a lot of useless vaccine on our hands. 🤞 

Edit/add: I am by no means and antivaxer, but is anybody concerned about the possibility of long term side effects of a vaccine that could potentially be cleared in 6 months. Keeping in mind that many times vaccines are studied for 5 or more years before they are used on the general population? Another thing that concerns me is will there be more pressure to clear the vaccine if 100 million doses were already made? I know we don't have much of an option; just thinking out loud. 

My main concern is whether or not they try to make it mandatory.  If it is voluntary like the flu then go for it and we can monitor side effects.  I just don't think there is enough information about coronavirus to be making a decision like that. 

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As reported on CNN.  Just thought I would share some positive news related to the virus.

 

New York state reported its lowest daily coronavirus death toll so far, with 49 deaths reported yesterday, Gov. Andrew Cuomo said.

That's down from 58 deaths on Monday and 54 on Tuesday, the governor said. Hospitalizations are also at an all-time low.

Cuomo warned that although many headlines are focusing on the nationwide protests over George Floyd's death at the hands of police, coronavirus remains a threat.

"It is still in people and in society. We're still battling that," he said of the virus.

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5 minutes ago, mrflynn03 said:

My main concern is whether or not they try to make it mandatory.  If it is voluntary like the flu then go for it and we can monitor side effects.  I just don't think there is enough information about coronavirus to be making a decision like that. 

I'd imagine it'd be voluntary. I also read that for it to be effective only 60% of the population would need it. 

Edited by tdhoosier
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13 hours ago, tdhoosier said:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucejapsen/2020/06/02/fauci-modernas-phase-3-covid-19-vaccine-trial-will-include-30000-young-and-old-individuals/amp/
 

moderna moves into phase 3. And mass production will start. If the vaccine performs well in this trial for 30k people 100 million doses will be available by 2021. If not we’ll have a lot of useless vaccine on our hands. 🤞 

Edit/add: I am by no means and antivaxer, but is anybody concerned about the possibility of long term side effects of a vaccine that could potentially be cleared in 6 months. Keeping in mind that many times vaccines are studied for 5 or more years before they are used on the general population? Another thing that concerns me is will there be more pressure to clear the vaccine if 100 million doses were already made? I know we don't have much of an option; just thinking out loud. 

I'm by no means an expert on this, but my understanding is that most of what was skipped/sped up was the pre-clinical work (the lab and animal testing that is normally done before the first person gets injected); the time between phase 1, 2 and 3 (normally we would give more time before the next, and larger, round of people is injected); and the lag time to actually produce things at scale once it has been approved. But, what we are not messing with is the phase 3 timeline, where the largest group gets the vaccine and the regular observations - we will still wait the normal time before approving anything for the general population, we will just start making it before we know if we will ever use it. 

Edited by HoosierDom
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