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10 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

Well, since it is the end of June, and the story was written today, that headline is very misleading.  It says 'could be', which I would naturally interpret to be based on today's numbers.  If the intent was to only reflect what was going on in March, then the headline should have said 'Could have been 80 times higher in March'.

I won't get into it here, but I was just telling my cat how this was another example of the incompetent reporting or intentional misrepresentation by the media. 

 

Agree the headline was poorly written. 

Link to study.

This is from the report.

"The goal of our study was to use publicly available data to estimate the number of patients seeking care for non-influenza ILI in excess of seasonal trends during the three weeks spanning March 8 to March 28, 2020 and then use this ILI surge to estimate COVID-19 incidence in March and parameterize epidemiological model growth rates and clinical rates."

 

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CDC Data

This shows provisional death counts reported to the cdc.  Even though cases are surging, deaths continue trending down.  Hopefully that will continue.

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In one of those decisions that make you go WTF?

  • The State of Kentucky is allowing the Louisville FC (soccer) stadium to open at 50% capacity on July 11th.  The stadium seats approximately 15.300 people, so you are looking at about 7,600 fans.
  •  Meanwhile, on July 12th, NASCAR comes to Kentucky Speedway.  The grandstands there hold about 86,000 people.  The State is allowing, get this, ZERO attendance at the race.  

So, the state is effectively saying it's okay to cram 7,600 people into a space designed for 15,300, but, one day later,  it's NOT okay for 1 person to be in a space designed to hold 86,000.

Kentucky math at it's finest.  

 

 

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1 hour ago, Lostin76 said:

If I remember correctly, they live in Washington Heights? It is getting to be a bit of a pressure cooker, and I feel a bit nervous about the summer. Between COVID, almost non-stop protests, riots in Manhattan, stores and restaurants closing left and right, and now nightly professional- level fireworks from 8-3am, people have definitely been more on edge. I love fireworks, but they have been VERY intense.

They've closed a lot of streets down to allow people a bit more room to get out of their cramped houses, but motorists just move the barricades and barrel down the street anyway. Lovely for the kids trying to play in the street. We've been walking a lot to alleviate some of that, but even that can put you on edge. Some blocks are great and others you are forced to walk by people on the sidewalk not wearing masks.

The NYPD, pretty much useless even in normal times, are pouting maskless outside of their precincts (and behind barricades) and letting the fireworks fly. The mayor has finally turned his attention to it, but he's inept and hated as well.

Thankfully, people are mostly being kind to each other and supportive of their neighbors. I feel like that's the big silver lining.

It's weird, b/c so many people had started returning and now they are leaving again. I don't blame them. Glad your cousin was able to get some downtime. A walk on the Monon can do wonders!

Yep on Washington Heights! Before this all hit they were preparing to move to the 70's or 80's area on West Side. Now that's been suspended and they are still in their place there. Not the best of areas. Somewhat safe and sometimes not. He's a minimalist type of guy so he can go without a lot but the pressure/anxiety is starting to build. He's originally from Seattle and I'm thinking the thoughts of wide  open spaces, mountains,etc....is winning in his mind now.

Thanks for the ground level report. You hear things in news and curious what it's really like. I learned more about what's going on there in your post than anywhere else. Be safe and hopefully we can find our new normal soon. Stinks on fireworks. I love them too but man all night??

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37 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

Kentucky math at it's finest.  

I still say, most of them think a bridge is a shade umbrella for their swim across the river.

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Not a chance it is 80 times higher for that time period.  The way testing has finally gotten to, pretty much anybody showing symptoms now can get tested.  We're currently at roughly 600 deaths per day.  Most of these deaths come from people who got it 1-2 weeks ago when we were having about 22,000 positive cases per day.  At the peak, we had about 4 times as many deaths as we currently have, so you could say we might have had 4 times as many positives before those deaths.  

If there were 2.8 million who were showing symptoms, there would have been hundreds of thousands of deaths over that time period.

Just the simple fact that more people who had mild flu-like symptoms went to doctors this year out of fear of having the coronavirus already throws the numbers off.  There are a lot of false results on flu tests as well, and other things that have similar symptoms.  How many people have food poisoning thinking it is the flu?

I have no doubt the early numbers were higher than reported, but not even close to 80 times higher.

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5 hours ago, Seeking6 said:

Seems to me there's about 4 groups here in Indy area.

1) Total lock down still. Rarely go out. No visitors,etc..

2) People who wear mask at all times out in public, run normal errands but still  aren't going out or seeing others.

3) People  who wear mask when they go to store...but are getting together with friends more and more often recently at outdoor restaurants, cookouts, bars, golf,etc..while still practicing social distancing. 

4) People walking around like it's no big deal. Belly up to the bar. No mask, no hand sanitizer...ever.

I find myself mostly in group 2....with a desire to be in group 3 at some point but I still find myself hesitant to do anything besides golf and bike/beers on the Monon Trail and remain outside at stops. 

I'm in group 3. Very rare I see someone without a mask in a store so at least 95% by me. In MI, OTOH, I walked into a small store and was the only one with a mask out of at least a dozen. 

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5 hours ago, 5fouls said:

With 2,500,000 'confirmed' cases, that would put infections in the U.S. at about 200,000,000.  The U'S. population is about 331,000,000.  

 

Obviously I have no idea.  But my logic tells me that’s hard to believe. If it were true we would be in herd immunity territory and this thing would be downshifting toward the end.   Just making up a stat using scale, I’d think 30-50 million were realistic.  I’m all for it being the big number, because the nightmare would be about done.  

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11 hours ago, Seeking6 said:

Seems to me there's about 4 groups here in Indy area.

1) Total lock down still. Rarely go out. No visitors,etc..

2) People who wear mask at all times out in public, run normal errands but still  aren't going out or seeing others.

3) People  who wear mask when they go to store...but are getting together with friends more and more often recently at outdoor restaurants, cookouts, bars, golf,etc..while still practicing social distancing. 

4) People walking around like it's no big deal. Belly up to the bar. No mask, no hand sanitizer...ever.

I find myself mostly in group 2....with a desire to be in group 3 at some point but I still find myself hesitant to do anything besides golf and bike/beers on the Monon Trail and remain outside at stops. 

Put me in group 3.75. I use hand sanitizer sometimes and I only wear a mask to get into Costco. I’d be closer to 4, but all the actual bars at the bars are not allowed to be open, so I can’t belly up to any yet.

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On 6/25/2020 at 3:56 PM, 5fouls said:

New Jersey adding nearly 1,900 deaths to its total.  Probable deaths not previously counted by the state.

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/new-jersey/articles/2020-06-25/33k-more-seek-jobless-benefits-in-nj-amid-covid-19-outbreak

I've never found a good definition of 'probable' versus 'confirmed'.  And, I'm not sure how they can make a reliable conclusion after all of this time.  Because of that, I think the two numbers should be kept separate.  have a column for confirmed, another for probable, and then a grand total if you want.  But, don't just lump them all in the same bucket without any further breakdown.

 

 

 

 

I'd like to see the numbers of died with and died from.  

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9 hours ago, NotIThatLives said:

I'd like to see the numbers of died with and died from.  

I don’t think you’ll find those numbers because the ‘died from’ number would be zero based on how you phrased the question  

Somebody can correct me if I’m wrong but I don’t believe anybody technically ‘dies from’ coronavirus. The virus attacks the red blood cells which cause inflammation. So for example if this inflammation happens in the lungs; that is pneumonia...and pneumonia is what people ‘die from’. 

if the virus hits an already medically compromised person the inflammation accelerates the symptoms of their condition that causes death. 

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As @IUFLAsaid above TX, especially Houston, San Antonio and Dallas, is rolling things back a bit with bars, etc, but also now mandating masks be worn in businesses like grocery stores etc.

A good thing. It has gotten very bad here fast. Bring on the locusts - it’s Texas, we’ll just shoot them lol.

Under local orders we’re now right back to telling our employees to work remotely unless necessary to be in the office. Crappy thing, among others, is we’re back to probably cancelling our summer clerk program, really sucks for these kids in school trying to get clerkships and line up future employment, and that includes my kids.
Trying to find the balance here is hard.
 

We’re working to  keep our people working, but people need to think bigger than themselves and wear masks and follow behavior that will keep this damn virus in check 

 

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What is education looking like in people's areas? In Illinois we're planning on opening in August with masks, as much distancing as possible, and other precautions, but I just don't see how we'll be able to do it in person.

We struggle to find subs for teachers in the best of times, and what is going to happen when kids and teachers start getting it? What's it looking like for everyone else?

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2 hours ago, Hoosierhoopster said:

As @IUFLAsaid above TX, especially Houston, San Antonio and Dallas, is rolling things back a bit with bars, etc, but also now mandating masks be worn in businesses like grocery stores etc.

A good thing. It has gotten very bad here fast. Bring on the locusts - it’s Texas, we’ll just shoot them lol.

Under local orders we’re now right back to telling our employees to work remotely unless necessary to be in the office. Crappy thing, among others, is we’re back to probably cancelling our summer clerk program, really sucks for these kids in school trying to get clerkships and line up future employment, and that includes my kids.
Trying to find the balance here is hard.
 

We’re working to  keep our people working, but people need to think bigger than themselves and wear masks and follow behavior that will keep this damn virus in check 

 

We kept our summer associate program and are trying to get them involved, but realistically it’s difficult to get them any exposure.  Coming into the office is optional until August 1, even for staff.  

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52 minutes ago, Leathernecks said:

What is education looking like in people's areas? In Illinois we're planning on opening in August with masks, as much distancing as possible, and other precautions, but I just don't see how we'll be able to do it in person.

We struggle to find subs for teachers in the best of times, and what is going to happen when kids and teachers start getting it? What's it looking like for everyone else?

I work with a guy who's wife is a teacher. He told me yesterday the plan is class monday and Tuesday, off Wednesday for deep cleaning, class thursday and friday. Masks mandatory and bathrooms cleaned, including by teachers, after every bathroom trip. If they do that I have a hard time seeing how they will have the time to teach.

Imagine trying to keep masks on 20 first graders and cleaning the bathroom after each use. Sounds exhausting.

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1 hour ago, mrflynn03 said:

I work with a guy who's wife is a teacher. He told me yesterday the plan is class monday and Tuesday, off Wednesday for deep cleaning, class thursday and friday. Masks mandatory and bathrooms cleaned, including by teachers, after every bathroom trip. If they do that I have a hard time seeing how they will have the time to teach.

Imagine trying to keep masks on 20 first graders and cleaning the bathroom after each use. Sounds exhausting.

That's what I'm thinking too. There's going to have to be so many rules in place that it is going to be a nightmare.

I don't want to do things online again, but it would almost be better than some of the things I've seen proposed.

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1 hour ago, mrflynn03 said:

I work with a guy who's wife is a teacher. He told me yesterday the plan is class monday and Tuesday, off Wednesday for deep cleaning, class thursday and friday. Masks mandatory and bathrooms cleaned, including by teachers, after every bathroom trip. If they do that I have a hard time seeing how they will have the time to teach.

Imagine trying to keep masks on 20 first graders and cleaning the bathroom after each use. Sounds exhausting.

I've heard similar and your question is right on target. In addition to what you describe, on top of the in-school days, there will be students/families who elect to keep children homes (underlying conditions, for example). So teachers will have to have on-line prepared essentially every day unless there is some special mechanism in place to keep that off their plate. Just seems like - while having "normal" classes/school is what everyone would prefer - under the circumstances it's so complicated it will just end up being counter productive.

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Greater Clark School district, which is down here in Southern Indiana adjacent to the one my kids attend released their plans earlier this week.

 https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/greater-clark-county-schools-revises-first-semester-calendar-releases-return-plans/ar-BB15Tql5

Some highlights

  • 3 learning options offered to students
  • Traditional classroom will be one of the options available, with specified dates set aside for e-learning
  • School will start as scheduled on July 29th
  • No Fall Break.  2 weeks originally scheduled for fall break will be e-learning instead.
  • E-learning will also take place the week of and the week after Thanksgiving
  • Extended winter break will begin on December 5th.
  • Spring semester schedule will be determined at a later date.
  • Anyone entering a school facility will be screened for temperature
  • Masks will be recommended, but not required
  • Plan is dependent on the State of Indiana to go to Phase 5 of its re-opening plan as scheduled on July 4th

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Plans for full time e-learning at home, or even those with one or two days a week, just do not work unless society is in a total lockdown.  Dual income families, or single-parent families simply have no way to keep young children at home unless at least one parent is working from home as well.  It worked 'okay' for April & May because everything but essential services was shut down.  That's not going to be the case this fall.  Indiana, for example, will be 100% open unless cases spike again. Parents have to work, and having children physically at school all day allows that tp happen.  Basically, if we don't open up schools, we can't open anything else either.

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12 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

Greater Clark School district, which is down here in Southern Indiana adjacent to the one my kids attend released their plans earlier this week.

 https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/greater-clark-county-schools-revises-first-semester-calendar-releases-return-plans/ar-BB15Tql5

Some highlights

  • 3 learning options offered to students
  • Traditional classroom will be one of the options available, with specified dates set aside for e-learning
  • School will start as scheduled on July 29th
  • No Fall Break.  2 weeks originally scheduled for fall break will be e-learning instead.
  • E-learning will also take place the week of and the week after Thanksgiving
  • Extended winter break will begin on December 5th.
  • Spring semester schedule will be determined at a later date.
  • Anyone entering a school facility will be screened for temperature
  • Masks will be recommended, but not required
  • Plan is dependent on the State of Indiana to go to Phase 5 of its re-opening plan as scheduled on July 4th

I worry that after this year, there's going to be an even bigger teacher shortage. Teachers are basically going to have to teach in person and online at the same time. There is already a bad teacher shortage, and I would guess a lot of people aren't going to be signing up for the conditions teachers will have to deal with from this.

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2 hours ago, BobSaccamanno said:

We kept our summer associate program and are trying to get them involved, but realistically it’s difficult to get them any exposure.  Coming into the office is optional until August 1, even for staff.  

We’re basically having a shareholder fight over it. I’m on the side of keeping it despite the environment, the cost of the program in the grand scheme of things isn’t that high and it’s an investment in your lawyers to be. The misers of the firm are up in arms about it. Does everything have to be about money? 

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