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Reacher

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2 minutes ago, mrflynn03 said:

Have to admit, when I posted that article vodka had severely affected my reading comprehension.  Just sayin. I did reread it though. 

At least you just read an article.  Vodka resulted in marriage #4 for me.  

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57 minutes ago, rico said:

This sports stuff is going to get nutty. People point to athletes potentially being put in harms way for our entertainment or a bunch of rich people losing money if sports don’t come back, but it goes so much deeper than that. 

Of course the health and safety of all should come first, absolutely, but sports not coming back will be crushing. Not necessarily because of our ability to be entertained on our couches, but the millions of people that rely on sports for their livelihood. Not the athletes or rich network execs, but the ushers that work in the stadiums, the crews responsible for setting the courts and fields up. The lower lever media grunts that rely on getting b-roll footage or interview clips for that nights news, the bars and restaurants that surround stadiums, the D2 coach who has made their living coaching soccer, etc., etc. 

The list of people that rely on major sports to be played is a long, long list. Again, that doesn’t mean we should put D1college football players or NBA players at risk, just pointing out how much deeper the need for sports actually runs. 

Edited by BGleas
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22 hours ago, Hoosierhoopster said:


It’s a national health emergency. 

I think that is pushing the envelope. A few months ago, yes. Today the curve has been flattened, deaths are dropping and it's more of a local health emergency in Select places

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5 hours ago, BGleas said:

Agree. Non-revenue generating sports at the bigger schools and all sports at the D2 and D3 levels are in great danger. 

Can't speak for others or won't but I have 5 friends who have kids who play D2/D3 sports. 1 guy is in denial still but the other 4 are planning on their sports being cut. Football, basketball, and tennis. Or at least postponed for a year. Problem is they accepted scholarships based on playing. No playing time for paying. 

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https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(20)30534-8/fulltext

This was kind of lost in news over the holiday weekend. Basically,  a peer reviewed study published in the Journal of Infectious Diseases says hydroxychloroquine reduced deaths by 60-70%. 

Might be partially why deaths are decreasing despite the increase in cases. 

Could be a game changer 

 

Edited by Reacher
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9 hours ago, BGleas said:

Agree. Non-revenue generating sports at the bigger schools and all sports at the D2 and D3 levels are in great danger. 

That truly will be a shame because all we truly seem to know about this virus is that it is very infectious.  We don't seem to have a handle on how many are infected or what the true death rate is. 

 

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5 hours ago, Reacher said:

I think that is pushing the envelope. A few months ago, yes. Today the curve has been flattened, deaths are dropping and it's more of a local health emergency in Select places

You live on a different planet than most of us. Flattened? Texas, Florida and multiple other states have significantly increased cases, hospitalizations, daily records, but we already covered that and you choose to disregard it all 

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1 hour ago, Hoosierhoopster said:

You live on a different planet than most of us. Flattened? Texas, Florida and multiple other states have significantly increased cases, hospitalizations, daily records, but we already covered that and you choose to disregard it all 

I think what we should be looking at, is If there is a spike in deaths. I dont think it should surprise anyone the raw numbers of cases will increase with more testing and, let's be real I'm tired of the hypocrisy, the mass gatherings of all sorts aren't helping. 

But we need to look at the statistics and not the raw numbers. I'm no expert but I didnt spend alot of money and time to get a BS in Science, and like @Leathernecks be frustrated with the crap "science " that's pushing this.

 

Screenshot_20200706-002850_Chrome.jpg

Edited by mrflynn03
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10 hours ago, Hoosierhoopster said:

You live on a different planet than most of us. Flattened? Texas, Florida and multiple other states have significantly increased cases, hospitalizations, daily records, but we already covered that and you choose to disregard it all 

COVIDJuly22020.PNG

 

Cononavirus-Deaths-Jul-4-600x363.jpg

 

Deaths are at an all time low. (Sorry @mrflynn03- see you posted the same chart) . I acknowledged some places are still hot but that is a LOCAL issue and people are not dying at the rate they previously were. Don't say I disregarded increases, I haven't. I"m saying things - for the vast majority of the country- are clearly improving.  There is no National Health Emergency going on around me. You are the one living in a bubble. As lockdowns are relaxed, and mass gatherings (for BLM, Fireworks, etc) pick up, it is logical cases will pick up. That is to be expected. I see it as progress, not an emergency (Not saying that there are not pockets truly facing an emergency before you accuse me of that). Furthermore, the curve hasn't flattened. I was wrong. It is clearly declining (measuring deaths).

Edited by Reacher
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8 hours ago, mrflynn03 said:

I think what we should be looking at, is If there is a spike in deaths. I dont think it should surprise anyone the raw numbers of cases will increase with more testing and, let's be real I'm tired of the hypocrisy, the mass gatherings of all sorts aren't helping. 

But we need to look at the statistics and not the raw numbers. I'm no expert but I didnt spend alot of money and time to get a BS in Science, and like @Leathernecks be frustrated with the crap "science " that's pushing this.

 

Screenshot_20200706-002850_Chrome.jpg

Coming off an all time low, watch for the reports that deaths have increased 30%, 90%, etc even though we likely will remain in the downward trend. 

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16 hours ago, Reacher said:

I think that is pushing the envelope. A few months ago, yes. Today the curve has been flattened, deaths are dropping and it's more of a local health emergency in Select places

This doesn’t look flat on a national level or a state level. Also keep in mind that a vast number of thoses cases back in April were from NYC. I think you’d have a better argument that it wasn’t a national health emergency back in April....if that’s the stance you want to take. 

I guess I don’t understand your intention of pushing the narrative of a flattened case curve when it isn’t true. The graph you just posted was test results, not number of cases. Just because you test more or less doesn’t mean that the virus doesn’t exist....it’s still infecting people. Just because you haven’t gone to a dentist for him to tell you that you have a cavity doesn’t mean that you don’t have a cavity. Was that claim supposed to be evidence that we are over-reacting as a country? That we should let this thing run wild?  The our country is doing a good job of containing this? Is the virus going to go away by itself? What exactly are you trying to argue? 

A lot of people are saying that they have no agenda and they’ll play their part in being socially responsible, which I thank them for, but blatantly false and misleading information keeps getting posted in this thread. Whether it was the stance you took 2 weeks ago when you were disputing the claim that cases were rising in Texas. Or that cases are flat now. Or when somebody posted that asymptomatic/presymptomatic spread was a lie. There have been obviously doctored bar graphs posted as well. 

And yes, deaths are dropping.........for now, but again there’s a delay in deaths because people don’t die the day they test positive. It’s as simple as that. I hope I’m wrong but based on previous trends I don’t think we will be saying ‘deaths are dropping’ later this week or next week. I’m sure you weren’t pointing to the rising death rate in NYC when cases began to fall. It’s because the death rate lags behind the case rate. Will it be a little lower because we know how to treat this better and have remdevisvir (spelling?)? Sure, I will acknowledge that, but the death curve will still follow the case curve. It may be a slightly lesser rate, but deaths aren’t going away if that’s what you are implying. 

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BCDB9984-EB73-4AEB-B292-C1DF35865467.jpeg

Edited by tdhoosier
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It is very promising that deaths are down but in many states, including AZ, we are nearing critical levels of ICU capacity.  I imagine part of the reason deaths are down is that we did “flatten the curve” for some time and we used that to, at least minimally, expand our hospital capacity. 
 

If cases continue to explode, we will again run into the original hospital capacity problem. If we do (and I hope we don’t), deaths will follow. AZ just activated a “crisis of care” model - a literal mathematical formula to determine who gets scarce healthcare resources. Other states with big outbreaks are not far behind. 
 

This is a really big and really unknown disease. There is going to continue to be a lot of contradicting information, IMO. 

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1 hour ago, tdhoosier said:

This doesn’t look flat on a national level or a state level. Also keep in mind that a vast number of thoses cases back in April were from NYC. I think you’d have a better argument that it wasn’t a national health emergency back in April....if that’s the stance you want to take. 

You are referring to cases, I'm referring to deaths.  Please reread my post where I acknowledged it was a national emergency " a few months ago" , I just don't see it that way now. I'm sorry if I'm not being super clear, but people keep putting words in my mouth. Once again, it is not my stance that it was not an emergency months ago and I never said that. 

I guess I don’t understand your intention of pushing the narrative of a flattened case curve when it isn’t true. The graph you posted was test results, not number of cases. Just because you test more or less doesn’t mean that the virus doesn’t exist....it’s still infecting people. Just because you haven’t gone to a dentist for him to tell you that you have a cavity doesn’t mean that you don’t have a cavity. Was that claim supposed to be evidence that we are over-reacting as a country? That we should let this thing run wild?  The our country is doing a good job of containing this? Is the virus going to go away by itself? What exactly are you trying to argue? 

I'm not trying to argue. Especially the points you threw out there. Where is that coming from? I do try and point out some facts that people seem to be ignoring. You inserted "case" into flattened curve. Did you not read this just above- "Furthermore, the curve hasn't flattened. I was wrong. It is clearly declining (measuring deaths)." Apples to Oranges.

The curve, to my understanding, means having PPE supplies, better treatments, hospital capacity, more tests AND LESS DEATHS in addition to cases. It looks like you are ignoring all that and moving the goalposts to only include cases. 

A lot of people are saying that they have no agenda and they’ll play their part in being socially responsible, which I thank them for, but blatantly false and misleading information keeps getting posted in this thread. The facts have changed countless times over the past few months. The studies faulting Hydroxychloroquinine have been dismissed and new studies (see CNN link in my post above) are showing it more effective than Remdesivir. Now we have 2 treatments. Great. @5fouls has posted numerous examples of CNN directly contradicting themselves within days. Guess we shouldn't watch them?  I'll leave it to you to post only factual data and you won'y be able to post very much.  Whether it was the stance you took 2 weeks ago when you were disputing the claim that cases were rising in Texas. Or that cases are flat now. Never said that. Or when somebody posted that asymptomatic/presymptomatic spread was a lie. Some credentialed people believed it at the time. Ex of facts changing. There have been obviously doctored bar graphs posted as well. 

And yes, deaths are dropping.........for now, but again there’s a delay in deaths because people don’t die the day they test positive. It’s as simple as that. I hope I’m wrong but based on previous trends I don’t think we will be saying ‘deaths are dropping’ later this week or next week. I posted above it is likely deaths will rise from an all time low. I’m sure you weren’t pointing to the rising death rate in NYC when cases began to fall. It’s because the death rate lags behind the case rate. Will it be a little lower because we know how to treat this better and have remdevisvir (spelling?)? Sure, I will acknowledge that, but the death curve will still follow the case curve. It may be a slightly lesser rate, but deaths aren’t going away if that’s what you are implying. Not implying that at all. I'd imagine we will still see deaths 5 years from now. 

29C7DE9D-BC38-4EB7-8773-D21ACD347D02.jpeg

BCDB9984-EB73-4AEB-B292-C1DF35865467.jpeg

I have seen these charts. New cases are up because we are testing more. Do you really think there are twice as many cases now than two months ago? Or that we weren't catching every case two months ago? My GUESS is that it is the latter. I guess I'd say that graph is misleading information.

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9 minutes ago, HoosierFaithful said:

It is very promising that deaths are down but in many states, including AZ, we are nearing critical levels of ICU capacity.  I imagine part of the reason deaths are down is that we did “flatten the curve” for some time and we used that to, at least minimally, expand our hospital capacity. 
 

If cases continue to explode, we will again run into the original hospital capacity problem. If we do (and I hope we don’t), deaths will follow. AZ just activated a “crisis of care” model - a literal mathematical formula to determine who gets scarce healthcare resources. Other states with big outbreaks are not far behind. 
 

This is a really big and really unknown disease. There is going to continue to be a lot of contradicting information, IMO. 

Couldn't agree more. As you know, I know many people in AZ (including someone who works at the Childrens Hospital) and have been following that state closely.  Keep in mind many new cases are from younger, generally healthier, people who may not be too effective in social distancing. They don't require the time and resources of  an elderly patient that has other health issues.  I think people took the reopening as an "all clear" signal and hopefully others will now learn to reopen and still take precautions. 

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1 hour ago, tdhoosier said:

but blatantly false and misleading information keeps getting posted in this thread. 

Yet, a few weeks back when I posted FACTUAL information about the DC numbers that contradicted a blatantly false and misleading story ran by a major media outlet, I was the one that was accused of having an agenda.

Yes, that's still a sore spot with me. 

Not saying this about you, but there are people that only complain about false and misleading information when it does not fit their narrative.  

 

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Yes, I did read. You wrote: 

"Today the curve has been flattened, deaths are dropping and it's more of a local health emergency in Select places"

I read that as three separate points. Because deaths can't drop and remain flat at the same time (a contradiction between point 1 and 2), I assumed you meant the case curve was flattening. Not sure what other curve you'd be referring to or how else I was supposed to take it. If that's not what you meant, then so be it, but that's the reason I posted those graphs.

1 hour ago, Reacher said:

I have seen these charts. New cases are up because we are testing more. Do you really think there are twice as many cases now than two months ago? Or that we weren't catching every case two months ago? My GUESS is that it is the latter. I guess I'd say that graph is misleading information.

I'm not sure how those graphs are misleading. They are from the NY Times and pretty much all other news organizations are reporting the same exact numbers (within a few hundred cases, depending on when they are updated). They are just straight up numbers. The 'deaths' graph you and @mrflynn03 posted is the same the NY Times is posting and you use it to justify dropping deaths rate. What's the difference?  I don't think that graph is wrong or misleading because I think the death rate will rise in the next week or two. 

Do I think there are twice as many cases? Well, it doesn't add up to that yet, but I do think we'll reach that number soon. Without measures taken the virus will reproduce exponentially because that's what viruses do. You can keep talking about increased testing as much as you want, but how many of those tests were for symptomatic people? Do you have numbers for that? I have taken a precautionary test because I had to get an ablation last month. My wife had to take a precautionary test because she had to get an endoscopy a few weeks ago. If somebody tests positive for COVID many companies are requiring 2 negative test before returning to work. Some companies are requiring a negative test after mandatory quarantines if you've come into contact with a proven positive. Do we have more cases because of these additional tests?  My point is that we can keep on going in circles about this, but it's not going to affect the outcome. 

In the end, I guess we'll just agree to disagree on whether or not this is a national health crisis. If this isn't a health crisis then I don't know what is. 

Edited by tdhoosier
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Deaths can be measured per total number of cases or per time period (per day, per week, etc.).

The stats that are most meaningful to me would be deaths per time period and number of hospitalizations.  Deaths as a percentage of cases might be interesting but not as meaningful as deaths per time period and hospitalizations.  

Deaths and hospitalizations per time period are most important to my way of thinking because they reflect the true effect to the country. For example, if this thing spreads so wildly that a large number are dying every week then it doesn’t really matter what the percentage per case is because the spread is so wild that lots of people die.  For example, you could have ten deaths out of 1000 total cases for 1%.  You could also have 500 deaths out of 100,000 cases for the same time period for 0.5%.  We could be happy that the rate is only 0.5% but it would not take into account that the thing spread so wildly that you had 500 deaths.  

Hospitalizations could be measured similarly.  The more that are hospitalized, even if they live, strains our medical system, including suffering, costs, possibility of further infection, compromising brave workers, etc,

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To the point: AZ just activated crisis care standards.  I saw a TX doctor, live from the ER, explaining how he had 10 patients but only 3 beds.  That was one isolated doctor, but here is another example:

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/07/05/texas-coronavirus-hospitals-houston-san-antonio-austin/

Quote

As local officials express concerns that their hospitals could be overloaded with coronavirus patients, some are urging Gov. Greg Abbott to empower local governments to issue stay-at-home orders.

Hospitals are in a better spot than they were in March/April - that is to be sure.  We also know a whole lot more than we did on potential drugs/antivirals/etc than we did then.  The problem to me, though, is that if we keep having exponential growth (which we do in many places) we're in some deep, deep doo-doo.

AZ's positive test rate is a mind boggling 25%!!! That means we're drastically under-counting the actual cases.

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