Coronavirus

[mrflynn03]

39 minutes ago, tdhoosier said:

So you need to school Fauci on T-cells? haha.

Obviously not, it is biology 101 though.  I feel these so called experts are wasting a teachable moment.  

That article completely takes his answer out of context and contradicts itself.

Allowing 'everyone to get infected' as a means of her immunity is completely different than 'surviving infection or getting vaccinated' as a means to herd immunity. Given how the question was asked, his answer was correct. 

I don't think article does a good job at explaining the nuances of herd immunity. There's a huge misconception about it. I've listened to a quite a few podcast interviews with epidemiologists and infectious disease experts. First, herd immunity is usually the goal before a virus begins infecting the population. This is how the term has been typically used in the past. This is done through the use of vaccines. All of the interviews I listened to actually agree with Fauci in that trying to reach herd immunity without the assistance of a vaccine is extremely dangerous and would cause a lot of unnecessary deaths. Second of all, you can't just blast through herd immunity, because like a boulder running down a hill, the infection rate must be slowed down before it reaches that projected line of 70% or it will blow right past herd immunity....again, unnecessarily killing way more people than could be prevented if done responsibly. 

It was a dumb question to begin with. It's almost impossible for everyone to get infected.  And way more than the 2% the article says have been infected.  What we are experiencing right now is Darwins theory of survival of the fittest. 

I will ask this, is our response to this virus worth saving the .1% that will likely be affected while the 99.9% of the rest of us deal with the consequences?

 

[tdhoosier]

25 minutes ago, mrflynn03 said:

I will ask this, is our response to this virus worth saving the .1% that will likely be affected while the 99.9% of the rest of us deal with the consequences?

seeing how we are almost halfway to .1% in deaths with less than 10% of the population being infected, I'd say that number is not accurate, even for hypothetical purposes. 

And you are speaking purely from deaths. For every one person who dies there are many, many more that develop permanent heart or lung damage. I think you are thinking in the moment; what will this do to our future health and what will the cost effects of it be? We don't' know if it will re-infect people. We don't' know a lot. 

So forgive me if I don't want to go 'pedal to the metal' into this thing. I feel like we can try and wait 6-8 months for a vaccine while practicing social responsibility before we start throwing chicken pox parties. 

[IUFLA]

2 minutes ago, tdhoosier said:

seeing how we are almost halfway to .1% in deaths with less than 10% of the population being infected, I'd say that number is not accurate, even for hypothetical purposes. 

And you are speaking purely from deaths. For every one person who dies there are many, many more that develop permanent heart or lung damage. I think you are thinking in the moment; what will this do to our future health and what will the cost effects of it be? We don't' know if it will re-infect people. We don't' know a lot. 

So forgive me if I don't want to go 'pedal to the metal' into this thing. I feel like we can try and wait 6-8 months for a vaccine while practicing social responsibility before we start throwing chicken pox parties. 

According to some, it could be several years before our masks come off.

There's a perfect balance to all of this, but we're never going to find it. I think we can get close though...

[tdhoosier]

2 minutes ago, IUFLA said:

According to some, it could be several years before our masks come off.

There's a perfect balance to all of this, but we're never going to find it. I think we can get close though...

God, I hope not!

Did you get the impression that article was implying this culturally, but not necessarily out of necessity? 

Before the pandemic I'd see Asian people wear masks all the time - I assumed this was a result of SARS? That said, I can imagine people wearing masks in airports and other crowded public places when/if this is all done.

[mrflynn03]

24 minutes ago, tdhoosier said:

seeing how we are almost halfway to .1% in deaths with less than 10% of the population being infected, I'd say that number is not accurate, even for hypothetical purposes. 

And you are speaking purely from deaths. For every one person who dies there are many, many more that develop permanent heart or lung damage. I think you are thinking in the moment; what will this do to our future health and what will the cost effects of it be? We don't' know if it will re-infect people. We don't' know a lot. 

So forgive me if I don't want to go 'pedal to the metal' into this thing. I feel like we can try and wait 6-8 months for a vaccine while practicing social responsibility before we start throwing chicken pox parties. 

At the current rate it will take about 150 more days to reach that .1%.

We know the denominator, deaths, we dont the numerator, cases, and it will be years before we know how deadly this is. 

I'm more concerned about the 99+% of us who have to live life after all this is over. There are fates worse than death. 

Also, and nobody has the balls to come out and say it but Americans are fat. About 40% of us. So stop being fat and unhealthy.  We need people to take care of themselves, not just because of this virus but also to reduce healthcare costs. 

 

[IUFLA]

38 minutes ago, tdhoosier said:

God, I hope not!

Did you get the impression that article was implying this culturally, but not necessarily out of necessity? 

Before the pandemic I'd see Asian people wear masks all the time - I assumed this was a result of SARS? That said, I can imagine people wearing masks in airports and other crowded public places when/if this is all done.

I didn't get that out of the article, but it could be.

I just hope local/state governments don't try to make it a continuing mandate. 

 

Edited August 14, 2020 by IUFLA

[tdhoosier]

39 minutes ago, mrflynn03 said:

At the current rate it will take about 150 more days to reach that .1%.

We know the denominator, deaths, we dont the numerator, cases, and it will be years before we know how deadly this is. 

I'm more concerned about the 99+% of us who have to live life after all this is over. There are fates worse than death. 

Also, and nobody has the balls to come out and say it but Americans are fat. About 40% of us. So stop being fat and unhealthy.  We need people to take care of themselves, not just because of this virus but also to reduce healthcare costs. 

 

I’m 100% with you on improving health. Especially on improving health to improve your immunity because it goes hand in hand. I’m as puzzled as you are to why this message is not being repeated as much as mask wearing, distancing, etc. It needs to be included in the conversation. 

[Lostin76]

2 hours ago, mrflynn03 said:

At the current rate it will take about 150 more days to reach that .1%.

We know the denominator, deaths, we dont the numerator, cases, and it will be years before we know how deadly this is. 

I'm more concerned about the 99+% of us who have to live life after all this is over. There are fates worse than death. 

Also, and nobody has the balls to come out and say it but Americans are fat. About 40% of us. So stop being fat and unhealthy.  We need people to take care of themselves, not just because of this virus but also to reduce healthcare costs. 

 

<Stepping onto my Population Health soapbox>

I'm so sick of our nation ignoring this. It's all about gobbling down medicine instead of doing the smart things to be healthy. And greedy politicians sucking up fast food/junk food dollars to ignore the problem doesn't help.

Don't even get me started on factory farming and children's hospitals featuring McDonalds in their advertising and in their cafeterias.

It's so much cheaper and more efficient to tackle these things in a population health-based approach, but we would rather be lazy and waste billions on meds/surgeries to fix problems that could have been avoided.

</off the soapbox>

 

 

[5fouls]

1 hour ago, Lostin76 said:

<Stepping onto my Population Health soapbox>

I'm so sick of our nation ignoring this. It's all about gobbling down medicine instead of doing the smart things to be healthy. And greedy politicians sucking up fast food/junk food dollars to ignore the problem doesn't help.

Don't even get me started on factory farming and children's hospitals featuring McDonalds in their advertising and in their cafeterias.

It's so much cheaper and more efficient to tackle these things in a population health-based approach, but we would rather be lazy and waste billions on meds/surgeries to fix problems that could have been avoided.

</off the soapbox>

 

 

Reading this while eating Chick-fil-A.

[Lostin76]

15 hours ago, 5fouls said:

Reading this while eating Chick-fil-A.

i would expect nothing less of you!

[IUFLA]

Lasting immunity in people who developed mild coronavirus infection

Anyone skeptical of the source, the original article was in the New York Times, and anyone skeptical of THAT source can revert back to the linked Fox News article 😁

Edited August 17, 2020 by IUFLA

[5fouls]

A couple of herd immunity articles.  The Newseeek article indicates that 40% may be enough to achieve herd immunity.

https://www.newsweek.com/herd-immunity-slowing-virus-us-1525089

https://reason.com/2020/08/14/did-sweden-accidentally-blunder-into-covid-19-herd-immunity/

 

[5fouls]

Interesting quote from the Newsweek article I linked above.  Sounds like what happened in the U.S.  That said, the article also talks about how herd immunity can be achieved with as little as 40% of the population, making it much more achievable than the 80% that has been previously thrown out there..  

"This shift is because transmission and immunity are concentrated among the most active members of a population, who are often younger and less vulnerable," the researchers wrote. "If non-pharmaceutical interventions are very strict, no herd immunity is achieved, and infections will then resurge if they are eased too quickly."

[5fouls]

The data to support the theory that Sweden may be close to achieving herd immunity (see linked article 2 posts above) is strong.  

• Seven day moving average of cases - 187
• Seven day moving average of deaths - 1

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

 

 

[Reacher]

1 hour ago, 5fouls said:

Interesting quote from the Newsweek article I linked above.  Sounds like what happened in the U.S.  That said, the article also talks about how herd immunity can be achieved with as little as 40% of the population, making it much more achievable than the 80% that has been previously thrown out there..  

"This shift is because transmission and immunity are concentrated among the most active members of a population, who are often younger and less vulnerable," the researchers wrote. "If non-pharmaceutical interventions are very strict, no herd immunity is achieved, and infections will then resurge if they are eased too quickly."

This explains why hard hit areas like NY are now faring better. We'll see soon if school reopenings have an effect.

[Reacher]

[5fouls]

3 minutes ago, Reacher said:

This explains why hard hit areas like NY are now faring better. We'll see soon if school reopenings have an effect.

Agreed.  The article specifically states that places like Florida and Arizona should not have additional spikes either, once the current one fully ebbs.    

[Reacher]

1 hour ago, 5fouls said:

Agreed.  The article specifically states that places like Florida and Arizona should not have additional spikes either, once the current one fully ebbs.    

This article expounds on that. Examines Sweden, NY, IL and TX. Makes a compelling argument that lockdowns drag out and postpone the inevitable. 

https://mises.org/wire/why-americans-should-adopt-sweden-model-covid-19

[NotIThatLives]

3 hours ago, IUFLA said:

Lasting immunity in people who developed mild coronavirus infection

Anyone skeptical of the source, the original article was in the New York Times, and anyone skeptical of THAT source can revert back to the linked Fox News article 😁

cdc added to the confusion a few days back.  

https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucelee/2020/08/15/how-long-are-you-immune-after-covid-19-coronavirus-here-is-what-cdc-now-suggests/

few  Notes of Interest. Number one the author's name is Bruce Lee.  He is a digital health expert and an avocado eater so he basically slept at a Holiday Inn Express last night and is an expert.

The CDC said The Following last week on their website, “People who have tested positive for COVID-19 do not need to quarantine or get tested again for up to 3 months as long as they do not develop symptoms again.”

many took that as a signal that immunity lasts 3 months.

 

[IUFLA]

2 minutes ago, NotIThatLives said:

cdc added to the confusion a few days back.  

https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucelee/2020/08/15/how-long-are-you-immune-after-covid-19-coronavirus-here-is-what-cdc-now-suggests/

few  Notes of Interest. Number one the author's name is Bruce Lee.  He is a digital health expert and an avocado eater so he basically slept at a Holiday Inn Express last night and is an expert.

The CDC said The Following last week on their website, “People who have tested positive for COVID-19 do not need to quarantine or get tested again for up to 3 months as long as they do not develop symptoms again.”

many took that as a signal that immunity lasts 3 months.

 

I'd rarely dispute anything anyone named Bruce Lee said for obvious reasons just to be on the safe side, but I'll make an exception here...

[tdhoosier]

 

2 hours ago, Reacher said:

This article expounds on that. Examines Sweden, NY, IL and TX. Makes a compelling argument that lockdowns drag out and postpone the inevitable. 

https://mises.org/wire/why-americans-should-adopt-sweden-model-covid-19

I guess I'm not sure what many on here are trying to insinuate. Does anybody think we need to stop wearing masks, open up all bars, and start attending conventions in order to reach herd immunity? Just get a bunch of people sick before a vaccine is available and rip off the band aid? 

Nobody is locked down right now. What policies do you think should be reversed? 

I know you aren't advocating we going out in public and start licking each other's face in order to achieve herd immunity. What's your middle ground? 

 

[NotIThatLives]

56 minutes ago, tdhoosier said:

 

I guess I'm not sure what many on here are trying to insinuate. Does anybody think we need to stop wearing masks, open up all bars, and start attending conventions in order to reach herd immunity? Just get a bunch of people sick before a vaccine is available and rip off the band aid? 

Nobody is locked down right now. What policies do you think should be reversed? 

I know you aren't advocating we going out in public and start licking each other's face in order to achieve herd immunity. What's your middle ground? 

 

I googled the population density per mile of Sweden and Indiana.  Indiana is 3 times more dense per mile.  Indiana at 6.7 million and Sweden at 10.2 million people.  Just thought it was interesting.  Just a guess Stockholms inner city looks a little different than Indy.  I'm also guessing our obesity rates triple theirs.  

edit.  50% of Swedes are overweight or obese.  69% of Marion county is overweight or obese.  wowzers.  and people are starving to death all over the world.  

Edited August 17, 2020 by NotIThatLives

[btownqb]

Can someone confirm the average age of a Covid death is 78? 

[Reacher]

2 hours ago, tdhoosier said:

 

I guess I'm not sure what many on here are trying to insinuate. Does anybody think we need to stop wearing masks, open up all bars, and start attending conventions in order to reach herd immunity? Just get a bunch of people sick before a vaccine is available and rip off the band aid? 

Nobody is locked down right now. What policies do you think should be reversed? 

I know you aren't advocating we going out in public and start licking each other's face in order to achieve herd immunity. What's your middle ground? 

 

Did you read the article? Do you disagree with anything presented there?

I don't think anybody is trying to insinuate anything.  I try and present information. Some may be useful and some might prove wrong over time. The article mentions people in Sweden wearing masks and social distancing. 

While people may not be locked down, many schools, churches, and businesses are. Why not open the schools since young kids appear fairly resistant and it has not posed a problem in other countries? Let the young, healthy, active people spread it as they are not the prime age to burden the hospitals. Protect the elderly and those with health issues. To me that is common sense and the opposite of what was done in NY where they locked down the healthy and introduced the virus to the elderly. Personally, I also thinks sports can and should resume. They are playing now and, yes, there have been issues, but there are ways to minimize the risks- which appears small for that population.

[mrflynn03]

46 minutes ago, btownqb said:

Can someone confirm the average age of a Covid death is 78? 

CDC Link

pdf report in link.

Table 1 from report.