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Reacher

By Reacher
in Colonial Crester's Corner

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TheWatShot

TheWatShot

Posted
Posted
58 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

Went into the food mart at a gas station this evening.  

  • Cashier had her mask down around her neck.
  • Woman customer buying stuff had no mask at all.
  • As I was leaving, man walks in with no mask.

 

Most people where I live going into gas stations aren't masked. Of course, most people where I live aren't wearing masks anywhere. In larger cities I've visited recently, a lot of people have been masked. In smaller towns like the one I live in, many people just aren't doing it. 

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Billingsley99
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5fouls

5fouls

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, TheWatShot said:

Most people where I live going into gas stations aren't masked. Of course, most people where I live aren't wearing masks anywhere. In larger cities I've visited recently, a lot of people have been masked. In smaller towns like the one I live in, many people just aren't doing it. 

For my area, it's a significant change from 2-3 weeks ago.  I'm starting to see more and more people bail on them.  

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mrflynn03

mrflynn03

Posted
Posted
23 hours ago, Reacher said:

Right! Probably should have it set to 30 cycles. Any way you slice it, positive cases have been vastly overstated influencing peoples actions and government policy accordingly.

Found this study done in France back in April.  

Link

On the basis of this data, we can deduce that with our system, patients with Ct values equal or above 34 do not excrete infectious viral particles. It was observed that SARS-CoV-2 was detected up to 20 days after onset of symptoms by PCR in infected patients but that the virus could not be isolated after day 8 in spite of ongoing high viral loads of approximately 105 RNA copies/mL of sample, using the RT-PCR system used in the present study [14]. 

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dbmhoosier

dbmhoosier

Posted
Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, 5fouls said:

It was only a matter of time before someone would suggest this.  

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/03/health/coronavirus-masks-sex-canada-trnd/index.html

It's just like Demolition Man.

Spartan: All right Huxley, let's do it the old-fashioned way.
Huxley: [cringes] Disgusting! You mean... fluid transfer?
Spartan: No, I mean boning, the wild mambo, the hunka chunka...
Huxley: That is no longer done. Do you know what the exchange of bodily fluids leads to?
Spartan: Yeah I do. Kids, smoking, a desire to raid the fridge.
Huxley: Rampant exchange of bodily fluids was a major cause of society's downfall. After AlDS, there was NRS, then there was UBT. One of the first things Dr. Cocteau did was to outlaw and engineer all fluid transfer out of socially acceptable behavior. Not even a mouth transfer's condoned.
Spartan: Kissing's not allowed? [Lenina shudders at the thought] Damn, I was a good kisser.
Edited by dbmhoosier
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5fouls

5fouls

Posted
Posted

While cases are trending down, the low number yesterday has to be, in part, due to the holiday weekend.  If numbers stay that low all week, I'll be shocked.

My biggest issue right now is not the number of cases, but how deaths are recorded.  People with Stage 4 cancer (or any disease) who may have died 3 days earlier than they otherwise would have if they had not had Covid should not be counted as Covid deaths.  If the death numbers would have been appropriately recorded from day 1, we would be in a very different place right now as a country.

 

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tdhoosier

tdhoosier

Posted
Posted
45 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

While cases are trending down, the low number yesterday has to be, in part, due to the holiday weekend.  If numbers stay that low all week, I'll be shocked.

My biggest issue right now is not the number of cases, but how deaths are recorded.  People with Stage 4 cancer (or any disease) who may have died 3 days earlier than they otherwise would have if they had not had Covid should not be counted as Covid deaths.  If the death numbers would have been appropriately recorded from day 1, we would be in a very different place right now as a country.

 

This week will say a lot. Hopefully case count will be down and stay down throughout this fall. Fingers crossed.

Regarding that last statement (because I see that rationale presented over and over again), I'm just curious how you rationalize that theory with the excessive death numbers pretty much exactly following the COVID death curve. Per the site: Total predicted number of excess deaths since 2/1/2020 across the United States: 190,912 - 253,841
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

IF so many people would've died anyway, enough to alter the course of our national response, then why are we still so far above the 5 years median for total deaths since February? There have been no other pandemics, no significant natural disasters, no wars, etc. 

Or maybe I'm misunderstanding what you are saying? 

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5fouls

5fouls

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, tdhoosier said:

This week will say a lot. Hopefully case count will be down and stay down throughout this fall. Fingers crossed.

Regarding that last statement (because I see that rationale presented over and over again), I'm just curious how you rationalize that theory with the excessive death numbers pretty much exactly following the COVID death curve. Per the site: Total predicted number of excess deaths since 2/1/2020 across the United States: 190,912 - 253,841
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

IF so many people would've died anyway, enough to alter the course of our national response, then why are we still so far above the 5 years median for total deaths since February? There have been no other pandemics, no significant natural disasters, no wars, etc. 

Or maybe I'm misunderstanding what you are saying? 

More people have died this year than normal.  Not denying that.  My point is that if the actual number of Covid deaths is, and this is arbitrary, half of what has been reported, then we're going to be reacting differently as a country than we are with the number as it stands now.  

Here is an excerpt from the link you provided (good stuff in the link ,btw, thanks for sharing).

Finally, the estimates of excess deaths reported here may not be due to COVID-19, either directly or indirectly. The pandemic may have changed mortality patterns for other causes of death. Upward trends in other causes of death (e.g., suicide, drug overdose, heart disease) may contribute to excess deaths in some jurisdictions. Future analyses of cause-specific excess mortality may provide additional information about these patterns.

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tdhoosier

tdhoosier

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, 5fouls said:

More people have died this year than normal.  Not denying that.  My point is that if the actual number of Covid deaths is, and this is arbitrary, half of what has been reported, then we're going to be reacting differently as a country than we are with the number as it stands now.  

Here is an excerpt from the link you provided (good stuff in the link ,btw, thanks for sharing).

Finally, the estimates of excess deaths reported here may not be due to COVID-19, either directly or indirectly. The pandemic may have changed mortality patterns for other causes of death. Upward trends in other causes of death (e.g., suicide, drug overdose, heart disease) may contribute to excess deaths in some jurisdictions. Future analyses of cause-specific excess mortality may provide additional information about these patterns.

When they estimate the death toll for a hurricane it’s impossible to get it exactly right, which is why they use excessive deaths to estimate the impact. It’s the same with COVID19

And while I’m not denying that deaths happened as an indirect result from COVID, which also helped inflate the excessive death reporting, I believe it has to be a small percentage. I posted a table a few pages back where they estimate excessive deaths of despair (suicides, overdoses, etc.) numbers through the end of the year at 10k. Let’s say we are at 6k excessive deaths of despair now; add that to today’s COVID19 death totals (189k) and we are at 195k, which is still at the low end of the excessive death estimated range. 

I’m guessing we may disagree on this, but I think the COVID death numbers are generally accurate. There are probably a handful of anamolies, but I think the reported numbers generally fall within at least a +/- 3% error rate. A 3% error rate is about 6,500 cases that could be mis-reported in one direction, or not reported at all in the other direction.

You arbitrarily threw out ‘half’ and I agree that would change how we reacted to the virus, but there’s no evidence to say we are even close to a +/- 50% error rate. How far do you think we are off? How far off do you think we need to be off in order for it to have changed how we reacted? 

 

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5fouls

5fouls

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, TheWatShot said:

Can't verify this anywhere, but I heard the McDonald's in Brookville was letting people eat in the restaurant this weekend. Given the demographics of that area, it doesn't surprise me at all. 

I honestly would not be surprised if the Chick-Fil-A restaurants around me never open inside again.  They are absolutely killing it right now because they have the ability to get people through their drive-thru like no one else.  Other restaurants are struggling with the drive-thru volume, but it seems like Chick-Fil-A can crank out 10 times the volume as everyone else.   

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IU Scott

IU Scott

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

I honestly would not be surprised if the Chick-Fil-A restaurants around me never open inside again.  They are absolutely killing it right now because they have the ability to get people through their drive-thru like no one else.  Other restaurants are struggling with the drive-thru volume, but it seems like Chick-Fil-A can crank out 10 times the volume as everyone else.   

They have always had a quick drive through service.  Here in Greenfield we have some fast food places that have their dinning room open. Wendy's did for awhile but closed again. The ones that are open are Culver's, Arby's, Subway, Penn Station and Burger King.

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